Based on the Pavlov's dog theory, both bulls and bears have been trained to expect Fri-Mon bounce. I think we may get dead cat bounce to 1122 or so and head down in few days 1050. For swing trade short the bounce and relax and cash out in 3 to 4 weeks. Here is good analysis from: PUGRIDRION:
I believed that primary wave 1 (P1) for this run was nearing it's completion. Today all but confirmed that fact.
The primary count is that we have finished wave (3) of A down at 1114.84. And wave (4) of A could re-trace to about 1123 to 1126, see the 5-min and 15-min charts. The target for (5) of A is in the 1100 to 1110 area. And I expect a B-leg retrace to about 1130, before the C-leg down hits the 1055 to 1080 area.
However, the key level of 1113.39 on the SP-500 was not taken out. The low for today was 1114.84. 1113.39 was the top of wave 1 of [5] of P1. And since today's action did not take out this level, there is still an ever so slight chance that today's low is wave 4 of [5] of P1. There are only 3 minor degree was down at this point. Meaning it possible that a level above 1150.44 could still happen for 5 of [5] of P1. This can been seen clearly on the 60-min chart below, as the alternate count in purple. I don't have much confidence in this alternate count, but unitl 1113.39 falls it's still out there. Also, of note on the bullish side. The current slide stopped right at the 50-day SMA of 1114.61
the big drop in October had 5 trading days straight down then 1.5 days up then 1.5 days down before the rally resumed....50 pts down on initial drop 25 up 25 down on the retrace
MKT: some of you have asked; is this the rogue wave yet ? Ans: No but hey we are only 11 pts on the futs from filling SPX 1100; now tougher about 1 hour ago from web MKT: hrly TRIN yesterday low was 0.3 ish; awful for bulls; may fill hole at SPX 1100 tommorow; still have 1/22, 1/25 trading highs FWIW about 1 hour ago from web @Teleos HOY could have been 1/11,1/14 ... LOY could be either 9/10 ... or if extended into 10/8/10; too far out yet to call it about 2 hours ago from web in reply to Teleos @Teleos good question; SIMON needs to see the low into FEB 25 first; we should fail 10,570 weekly tommorow, warning sign about 2 hours ago from web in reply to Teleos @samamehta expecting to see a ramp back to 1150 ish into G-7 meeting; it's not over yet; we could just roll over dn right here; doubt it about 2 hours ago from web in reply to samamehta @samamehta SIMON goes airborne means 1/25 supposed to be a tradable high; larger cycle pushing us down here; need to see tommorow's close about 2 hours ago from web in reply to samamehta
Is anyone else holding faz long term? I just bought it for the first time today and am thinking I can hold this for a few weeks minimum. Today's sell off feels alot different that selloffs in the past and that was some incredible volume today. We might fall hard tomorrow on some follow through with a gap down. Asia's tanking and Europe should follow later tonight. 1100 gets tested tomorrow morning an possibly breaks imo
What is worried for, it happened, metals went down on most positive day (Thursday). At this stage I won’t say more but I would like to warn metal investors that worst time is coming ahead. Gold and silver lower side target for this week has been achieved and both metals moved down below that bring very negative news for metals. Next target for gold is $1072.80 and silver $16.93.
Base metals will sharply, so keep adding position in copper/platinum and palladium.
This time we were able to understood planet indications very correctly on stock market fall, they are falling and will fall big so just avoid any investment at this point of time.
Oil to move down more from here so avoid any new position in oil, today it may gain from lower side because this week lower-side target ($75.50)has been got achieved.
Planets are indicating positive trend for grains so accumulate on fall. Astro indications are saying that buy corn around $361.
Sugar and cotton to remain weak but one should watch cocoa and coffee. Next week we see coffee moving up.
Watch etf’s/stocks like, EDZ (triple short on emerging markets), SMN (short on base metals) and FAZ (shorts on financial and banking). These stocks moved up big in the last two days, and still has great potential on upside.
Dollar is doing great, it achieved this week target and it may break upside.
Lot to write on all major markets, and we will do in the next week newsletter.
----------------------------------------Jan 22---10amH-------2 -- 3pmL
16 comments:
Based on the Pavlov's dog theory, both bulls and bears have been trained to expect Fri-Mon bounce. I think we may get dead cat bounce to 1122 or so and head down in few days 1050. For swing trade short the bounce and relax and cash out in 3 to 4 weeks. Here is good analysis from: PUGRIDRION:
I believed that primary wave 1 (P1) for this run was nearing it's completion. Today all but confirmed that fact.
The primary count is that we have finished wave (3) of A down at 1114.84. And wave (4) of A could re-trace to about 1123 to 1126, see the 5-min and 15-min charts. The target for (5) of A is in the 1100 to 1110 area. And I expect a B-leg retrace to about 1130, before the C-leg down hits the 1055 to 1080 area.
However, the key level of 1113.39 on the SP-500 was not taken out. The low for today was 1114.84. 1113.39 was the top of wave 1 of [5] of P1. And since today's action did not take out this level, there is still an ever so slight chance that today's low is wave 4 of [5] of P1. There are only 3 minor degree was down at this point. Meaning it possible that a level above 1150.44 could still happen for 5 of [5] of P1. This can been seen clearly on the 60-min chart below, as the alternate count in purple. I don't have much confidence in this alternate count, but unitl 1113.39 falls it's still out there. Also, of note on the bullish side. The current slide stopped right at the 50-day SMA of 1114.61
I think market makes a bottom within first 2 hours tomorrow and then we head up for couple of days.
Everybody is looking for continuation plunge now.
sully
GAP UP!
Looks like lows to me.
simples
Anyone loading up on VXX? I think the time has finally arrived for that etf. Check out the volume and trend break.
Could be an even bloodier day tomorrow. Today's selloff was just the beginning.
x
China crashed into the close yesterday and still gaped down huge and sold off today. Could happen to our market
x
Congrats to all those who are short still. This should be a nice swing short for at least a few weeks. That was the top for 2010.
the big drop in October had 5 trading days straight down then 1.5 days up then 1.5 days down before the rally resumed....50 pts down on initial drop 25 up 25 down on the retrace
MKT: some of you have asked; is this the rogue wave yet ? Ans: No but hey we are only 11 pts on the futs from filling SPX 1100; now tougher
about 1 hour ago from web MKT: hrly TRIN yesterday low was 0.3 ish; awful for bulls; may fill hole at SPX 1100 tommorow; still have 1/22, 1/25 trading highs FWIW
about 1 hour ago from web @Teleos HOY could have been 1/11,1/14 ... LOY could be either 9/10 ... or if extended into 10/8/10; too far out yet to call it
about 2 hours ago from web in reply to Teleos @Teleos good question; SIMON needs to see the low into FEB 25 first; we should fail 10,570 weekly tommorow, warning sign
about 2 hours ago from web in reply to Teleos @samamehta expecting to see a ramp back to 1150 ish into G-7 meeting; it's not over yet; we could just roll over dn right here; doubt it
about 2 hours ago from web in reply to samamehta @samamehta SIMON goes airborne means 1/25 supposed to be a tradable high; larger cycle pushing us down here; need to see tommorow's close
about 2 hours ago from web in reply to samamehta
The Flash
Is anyone else holding faz long term? I just bought it for the first time today and am thinking I can hold this for a few weeks minimum. Today's sell off feels alot different that selloffs in the past and that was some incredible volume today. We might fall hard tomorrow on some follow through with a gap down. Asia's tanking and Europe should follow later tonight. 1100 gets tested tomorrow morning an possibly breaks imo
t
I bought 10000 shares of FAS for the reversal tomorrow morning and Gap up.
t+t
I had tza today went flat but i will buy faz in the morning financials are the weakest
thurs
tza +4.8 percent
faz +7.59 percent
still short the futes but put a buy order in at 1109 just in case they headfake before they pop us up into the open
ok got hit on my 109 order to close short...went long at 1107.50 for the pop into 10am
Dear Members,
What is worried for, it happened, metals went down on most positive day (Thursday). At this stage I won’t say more but I would like to warn metal investors that worst time is coming ahead. Gold and silver lower side target for this week has been achieved and both metals moved down below that bring very negative news for metals. Next target for gold is $1072.80 and silver $16.93.
Base metals will sharply, so keep adding position in copper/platinum and palladium.
This time we were able to understood planet indications very correctly on stock market fall, they are falling and will fall big so just avoid any investment at this point of time.
Oil to move down more from here so avoid any new position in oil, today it may gain from lower side because this week lower-side target ($75.50)has been got achieved.
Planets are indicating positive trend for grains so accumulate on fall. Astro indications are saying that buy corn around $361.
Sugar and cotton to remain weak but one should watch cocoa and coffee. Next week we see coffee moving up.
Watch etf’s/stocks like, EDZ (triple short on emerging markets), SMN (short on base metals) and FAZ (shorts on financial and banking). These stocks moved up big in the last two days, and still has great potential on upside.
Dollar is doing great, it achieved this week target and it may break upside.
Lot to write on all major markets, and we will do in the next week newsletter.
Thanks & God Bless
Name need not be mentioned
thanks Reza i bought JO a few days ago so interested in what he said about coffee
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