I was getting paranoid thinking that the bears would not get at least one day, but I am rethinking that position
Tomrrow's read calls for a TURN and it looks LIKE FLASH FUSION'S big turn on the 28th WILL
BE A LOW, and or the first 15 minutes on Monday
We are STILL in a 4th wave from the 1038 high of the 25th, and 26 hours
takes us to either 4pm friday or 9:45 am on Monday
Ravi and I have posted several levels for the SPX which are very possible to achieve between 1016 and 1000
any more than that is a gift from the gods
I got one email claiming they are expecting 980 - Would be BEARY nice, but I am not holding my breadth
Ignore those crash predictions that arrive every year at this time
at least for now
Tech data has NOT issued any sell signals
but YOU will be the first to know when the data does flash a sell
and even then, there could be a 10 day delay from signal to reality
Jay
21 comments:
It is the month of August, on the shores of the Black Sea. It is raining, and the little town looks totally deserted. It is tough times, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit.
Suddenly, a rich tourist comes to town. He enters the only hotel, lays a 100 Euro note on the reception counter, and goes to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to choose one. The hotel proprietor takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his debt to the butcher.
The butcher takes the 100 Euro note, and runs to pay his debt to the pig grower. The pig grower takes the 100 Euro note, and runs to pay his debt to the supplier of his feed and fuel. The supplier of feed and fuel takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his debt to the town's prostitute that in these hard times, gave her "services" on credit. The hooker runs to the hotel, and pays off her debt with the 100 Euro note to the hotel proprietor to pay for the rooms that she rented when she brought her clients there.
The hotel proprietor then lays the 100 Euro note back on the counter so that the rich tourist will not suspect anything.
At that moment, the tourist comes down after inspecting the rooms, and takes his 100 Euro note, after saying that he did not like any of the rooms, and leaves town.
No one earned anything. However, the whole town is now without debt, and looks to the future with a lot of optimism.....
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how the United States is doing business today.
Jay you are right. IAN too called for low on 8/28.
mike
Arak
That is really great. Some velocity of money!!
Un fortunately, velocity of money as crashed and stayed below one for almost 9-10 months
Jay:
The one thing that is clear to me now is that we finished extended 3 at 1037.75.
Did 4 finish at today's low or we have a lower low ahead toward 1018-1016, or even lower? The jury is still out. I will probably cover my shorts at 1018 without waiting for more, unless we open with a big gap.
5 is likely to take us to 1038-1045+ area, finishing a five wave move from 978.51. Once we come down from there, the next a, b, c MAY be the short ofthe young century.
THEN COMES THE REALLY BIG QUESTION. Would that 5 be all of C, or we are going to blast to 1120 area after a deeper retrace towards below 1018 but above 1000. How do you handle it ? STOP LOSS, don't be too sure of yourself.
Rest is a matter of minor details, that we must not get lost in.
This is the updated top line of the wedge on log scale
Date*** Day**** LogTop***
27-Aug 121 1040.76
28-Aug 122 1042.27
31-Aug 123 1043.78
1-Sep 124 1045.29
2-Sep 125 1046.81
Previous wave 4 top from last year is 1044.31. These are indicative of top of wave 5 from 987.51.
Keep in mind that at 1018, we were 7 points above the then line, but closed below it.
Best short wil be when complete five waves of 5 in the above area + minor intraday throwover. Best stop loss wil be the top of such five wave move. Whether it comes tomorrow or in a few days, matter not.
The Baltic Dry Index is a leading indicator for the economy and it tends to lead vs the SPX, noting divergences between the two indexes appears to work very well at identifying major trend reversals.
Currently there is a large negative divergence between the SPX and Baltic Dry Index; if the past relationship holds, then this should eventually drag the SPX down
Tony
The trend is still up until it's not. No need to have a bias here imo Break 1020 and then we'll talk.
pg
Tony,
is there any place i can download price history for the Baltic dry ?
regards,
A2
www.stockcharts.com - then use symbol $BDI - this will give you the chart of Baltic Dry Index.
It has plummetted 45% since June.
It is saying the opposite to what the financial markets are saying.
Reality will soon be here in Sept/Oct/Nov when numbers fail to meet expectations.
Problem is - EVERYONE is in the market , and there is only one door !!!!
Guess what happens next .
Uk Trader,
Nicely said.
This rally since March has been straight up going on 6 months. The big bottom some were expecting in October ain't happening.
BUT
Oct. may be the top pivot and not the bottom pivot. ala 2001--2002. 6 months up 6-7 months down for the big C. Just a probability.
Goodluck turtles
Tony
pg,
"No bias" doesn't exist. We just need to quantify our bias until evidence suggests to change it for that certain timeframe to which our bias applys.
My short term bias is UP then DOWN then UP into Oct.
Oct. is KEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
thanks for your input pg.
Tony
btw turtles,
The same divergence exists between between the SPX and TBT charts as on the SPX and BALTIC DRY INDEX.
Tony
ARAK
In your parable, the town was not really in tough times since for every debt there was an offsetting asset. The same thing could have been accomplished if the town folks got together and crafted an offset agreement to net everything out.
Now if the offsetting receivable was owned by a neighboring town, the outcome of your parable would not have been so happy (e.g., U.S. and China).
cb
yes pg
Oct10th is the MASTER date
But we need to be trading today
so lets put Oct10th on the back burner for now
And yes RAVI
lets NOT prejudge until we see just where AUg 28th LANDS
more later
Jay
seems like another doji day, by looking at EU
reza
what's a doji day?
joe
Joe,
try google, LOL :-)
http://www.google.com/#hl=en&source=hp&q=doji&aq=f&aqi=&oq=&fp=5fd42ee1c422ad25
a2
joe,
closing will be in the same price range at EOD
OK, so 4 of C was done at 1016.2. looks like , we finished (i) of 5 as well today:
(i) of 5 of C
i 1016.2 1019.56 3.36
ii 1019.56 1016.63 -2.93 -87.2% of 1
iii 1016.63 1025.3 8.67
iv 1025.30 1022.61 -2.69 -31.0%
v 1022.61 1033.33 10.72
all of (i) 1016.20 1033.33 17.13
So, next step is retrace in (ii) of 5:
38.20% 1026.79 -6.54
50% 1024.77 -8.56
61.80% 1022.74 -10.59
50-62% area likely target, since it is in the area of iv of (i) on way up and it can test the line joining 2 bottom at 980 ish and today's 4 low at 1016.2. Actually, that line should not break and may not get tested either.
Then comes (iii) of 5:
(iii) of 5 C ???, speculative
1022.74 1050.5 27.71634 1.618 of (i)
1022.74 1046.4 23.67366 1.382 of (i)
1022.74 1039.9 17.13 1 of (i)
At times, (iii) can be smaller than (i), in which case (v) will be smaller than (iii) and there is no better situation to put stop lass against expansion.
(v) of 5 of C should be a bit higher than (iii). Target around 1044.13 hi of October 14 last year, a fourth wave. This may break the wedge just a bit.
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