You said it Rodney : ) Its all good, its just words and not a kick to the chest.... Anyhow, were here to make some bucks for our families or keep capital so really interested in the seasoned traders and Jay/Ravi input. Help us out : )
Unfortunately most of you are abusing this blog of Jay. Pl note it is HIS PERSONAL blog and he has rights to post whatever he wants. We are here to get a clue to his indicators.
It is pointless to discuss speculative ideas which are usually on forums all around. There can never be consensus. We are NOT HERE for consensus but to hear a contrarian view.
LET JAY SPEAK his mind every week or day on macro trends and what he sees and if you can not post your positive opinion or some contributing thought PLEASE do not post nonsense and useless leg pulling ideas. NO USE TO you or anyone.
Pl THINK of covering all your trades with your own care and vision and not rely on others. JAY analyzes based on astro aspects yet he also factors his feel and pulse of the market. PLEASE DO NOT destroy this blog and stay away from useless posts.
We possibly made the hi today because the ending diagonal looks complete.
It would have been more clearly so had we complete a nice clear 5 wave down today.
At the same time, we did not do anything today that questions the completing of top. Look like we have done a series of one, two, one two of different degrees with pretty sharp retrace of 90% on the last one.
All you need to do now is watch for a crossover down of the Weekly SlowStochastic 5,3 indicator. Once this happens you can pile on the "IT" shorts until late October.
A negative Divergence would all but seal the deal too. It doesn't get any plainer and easier than this and from the looks of it it's not too far away. The market willl probably get exuberantly Bullish at the same time.
Candi
----------------------------------
Well, the slowstochastic is attempting turn down. If crossover occurs next week, note the NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE on MACD,HISTOGRAM & SLOWSTOCH. This could be it until Oct.
1. If wave (v) often overshoots line joining 1 and 3, then getting back below the line may confirm. Today, at 1008 we did not overshoot so this early confirmation indicator is simply not available this time.
2. When wave (iv) low is broken. We got this when we went below 994.31 today, but by less than two points. Count that as a confirmation.
3. A clear five wave down will add to confirmation, but we can also go down in a 3-3-3.
It's hard for me to write this because I know that many people will not understand what I say. But, here goes: I like SRS and FAZ as buys today. SRS is at $11.80 pre-market. FAZ is at $25.64 I think that ultimately they go much higher. I believe the "real estate" boom is baloney. I think that this move in financials has to be faded. I think that when all is said and done, SRS will be back to $15 or higher and FAZ back to $40.
But, I know that there will be people who say that it's time to jump in and ride this bull. And, I know there will be people who will email me to say that I've been "wrong" for the last $3 points on SRS. But, those folks will be only partially right. I've been wrong about some short term entries. I believe I will be proven right about the long-term strategy.
You may recall that I liked a stock, DTO, a while back. The first trades I called on that were money makers - easily so. But, I got emails from people who held DTO - against all rational thought - as it moved down from $94 (where I first liked it) to $68 - where I REALLY liked it.
Yet, when DTO climbed back to $100 again, I did not get one email from one of the prior flamers to say, "Hey, you got it right - even if it took a few weeks."
The truth is, that, I would have been OUT of DTO before the plunge. If you are a member of my service, you know that I preach NIGHTLY about stop/losses. And, I have a clear, easy-understand system for stops.
But, even if you assume NO STOPS on DTO, it ultimately made money for anyone that held it.
SRS and FAZ are stocks I believe, like DTO, hold promise as a way fade the baloney story about real estate and financials. I also know that stops must be used to protect against being "wrong". If someone were to buy any stock and not have a stop/loss in mind, they would be making a mistake. But, that's true of any trade I like.
There are other rules I would employ with a trade (position sizing, etc). Those rules are also stressed nightly (and, daily in my live room). If you want to know more about these rules and other trades discussed, join my service at http://augustspecial.joindh.com
Market Minute: August 6, 2009: Main resistance level still holds for S&P 500 The main resistance level of about 1000 continues to hold for the S&P 500. This line is the barrier that has held the broad-based index since October 2008. As the new 4-month trading cycle began in early July, time is slowly running out for any additional advance. The mid-point of the cycle is in late August. This means that downward pressure can be expected to build in the second half of the cycle which is September and October.
Probability models (Monte Carlo) indicate that there is only a 25% chance of the S&P 500 trading in the 939-1202 range over the next 100 days. In the August newsletter (pages 8 & 9), the importance of the 1000 level is explained plus the historical pattern of bear market bottoms since 1900 is reviewed. This combined data continues to imply a high probability of lower numbers in October.
Bottom line: The S&P 500 is anticipated to have an positive bias in August. That pendulum should begin to shift in September and October. Models indicate the low of the current 4-month trading cycle is in late October.
If I am going to be subject to advertising graffiti, I would see the yellow teeth ads, or even the fat ads, rather than investment service self-promotion posts. Man, its as ugly as it gets!
Jay, you were waiting for the beginning of the drop on August 10th ............now you post a crash alert for 17th-20th August........are both things valid, or is there a change of perspective ?
Looks like we are working on a v of a regular (v). i yesterday was 992.49 to 998.64 for 6.15 points. The iv may have ended at 1002.07 low so far today.
just how ridiculous has this rally become? nothing is working in this trend,unless your blindly trend trading with military -like discipline. no turn dates,astro,indicators or elliott wave,i look at a few so called elliott gurus on the net and none of these guys are even getting close.changing there counts every day again and again.its a bitch this game,you seem to be doing great for a while then some history making run like this comes out of the blue and your back to the drawing board significantly poorer.the lesson is to always set stops and keep to them because its times like this your ass gets handed to you. danny.
I think Jay may have been confused with a few dates but his pronosticate may be valid. This market is due for a retracement atleast if not a reversal. All commodity indices are down, USD is up and Oil is at peak for current trend. A retracement may be in store.
Overall we may be for a real bull trend so do not waste your time going against the trend. All this mumbo jumbo is useless if you can not see the macro trends.
Man, you perma-bulls haven't got a clue what's about to go down. The NASDAQ and commodity exchanges are leading the way here. We're headed down into late next week then a small rebound , then BOOM to the end of Aug. Then a rebound into early to mid Sept , then KABOOOOOOOM!!!! into late October.
Crossing of 1016.76 invalidates the count I posted in the morning. Back to the drawing board.
Does it mean that we may be in minor i of iii of (v)? If so, we have extended fifth wave with much higher target. Difficult to comprehend, so need to look into that possibility before a minor ii down of iii gives a chance to stop loss. I need to redo the count to see if this is possible.
ALL YOU GUYS TRYING TO PICK A TOP, CALLING FOR A CRASH.
STOP IT!
We are in a Brama Bull Market!
The only suckers here are the bears trying to anticipate a top almost every other day. This is getting ridiculous. This is a sickness that never finds a cure.
I am SHORT, SHORT ,SHORT. The only thing that will shake me out of my Long Term Shorts is if President Obama walks out in front of the white House pulls his pants down and does a crapper on the front lawn.
With all due respect elliot wave only truly works 'After' the fact. It's too subjective. Like everything else in a basically Random market it works enough of the time to keep people interested. That's the beauty of a random market, everything works some of the time.
Short-Term Geocosmics Prepare yourself. We are about to enter one of the most potentially explosive geocosmic time bands of the year. Starting this Monday, August 10, and lasting through August 26, there will be nine important geocosmic signatures occurring, with no more than 4 calendar days separating any two consecutive ones. This is known as a “geocosmic cluster.” But this one is not just any geocosmic cluster. This one contains three powerful Level One geocosmic signatures. As reported in “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Vol. 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles,” Level One signatures have the highest historical correlation to primary cycles from which the longest and most severe reversals tend to follow. But it goes even beyond that, because these Level One signatures involve the explosive planets Mars, Jupiter and Uranus.
You may remember from previous columns that any time there is a cluster of signatures involving these three planets in any combination, the possibility of very large price swings is great. On Friday, August 17, the very important Sun-Jupiter opposition takes place. Historically this aspect has a 75% correlation to primary or greater cycles within ten trading days. And 50% of the time, it is a 50-week or greater cycle. We are in that time band now, and the market is making a new high for the 50-week cycle. On Monday, August 17, the Sun will then be in opposition to Neptune, another Level One signature with a 74% correlation to primary or greater cycles within 13 trading days. The passage of the Sun in opposition to both Jupiter and Neptune is known as a “translation” to the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction. Then, on Tuesday, August 18, the Sun will form a waxing square to Uranus. This powerful signature has a 76% correlation to primary or greater cycles within 9 trading days. It will also mark the end of the Sun’s “translation” to the Saturn-Uranus opposition, which began Monday, August 10. But note that Mars, Jupiter, and Uranus are present during this cluster, especially August 14-18. This could get interesting.
Paul Tudor Jones takes the opposite side. From his 3 aug letter to clients:
"Slowing growth in China and the return of front-page stories on swine flu may be “further catalysts for global equity markets to pause in September,” the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm said in an Aug. 3 client letter, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News.
Tudor said the 47 percent gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of the largest U.S. companies since March 9, when it fell to a 12-year low, is a “bear-market rally.” The index topped 1,000 for the first time in nine months this week after companies reported better-than-expected profits.
“Impressive counter-trend rallies are a feature, not an oddity, of secular bear markets,” Tudor said. “We are not inclined to aggressively chase the market here. Many doubts remain about the sustainability of this recovery, most prominently the weakness of household income growth.”
UK, Not sure what to make of your info. Markets may get more volatile up or down on any number of days you mentioned. So how are you playing it. What trades are you making?? Thanks.
Amazingly , the last time we had a T-square involving Saturn , Uranus , Pluto was 1930 -1931 , just before the market collapsed after the 51% rally after the initial collapse .
This set up happens every 80-90years
The market went on to fall 89% from the highs.
The next T-square is due Nov 2009 - Aug 2010. This is when I expect the Dow to fall to 3800 and SPX to 500- by Aug 2010.
And I think the collapse will be due to tax and interest rate increases - very soon , together with PE re-pricing , due to the absurd forecasts of SPX $75 .
I expect SPX at $40 and below for 2010.
The hardest part is picking the top - due to panic buying which happens at the final stages of a bear market rally.
Shorts - do not capitulate - I am adding anything over SPX 1000.
Could get interesting next week - to coincide with the explosive Geocosmic events starting Aug 10 to Aug 26
*********************************** NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve will probably allow its $300 billion Treasury-buying program to end over the next six weeks as signs of a housing recovery prompt the central bank to unwind one its most aggressive and unusual interventions into financial markets, big bond dealers say.
With the Fed no longer a constant, large buyer of Treasury notes and bonds, benchmark yields and mortgage rates will likely rise. But that threat isn't expected to prompt policymakers, some of whom have expressed increasing alarm over the prospects of higher inflation from the Fed's ultra-loose monetary policy, to extend the program. The Fed is likely to reinforce that they are not going to be in the market after the $300 billion is up," said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, head of U.S. fixed-income strategy at Barclays Capital, one of the 18 primary U.S. government security dealers that trade with the Fed. *********************************
Sure they can end the program.Which means that the 10 year TNX will shoot up to over 4%, effectively making bonds the preferred instrument vs. stocks.That means that the stock market is in for a massive dip." ---
It seems the FED has been testing the waters by holding back buying the last four trading days, permitting the 30-Year interest rate to go up from 4.311 to 4.603, putting Financials on a tare. If they go on a buying spree, stocks including Financials will decline.
61 comments:
LOL, quite heated debate over at the last thread, maybe it means something. 86 posts..
a2
Rough crowd over there, especially if
your name is Joe.
You said it Rodney : ) Its all good, its just words and not a kick to the chest....
Anyhow, were here to make some bucks for our families or keep capital so really interested in the seasoned traders and Jay/Ravi input. Help us out : )
Cheers
I fear Joseph will bring them all to this thread.
ono
shut up ono
Crash up from 17-21?
C
Unfortunately most of you are abusing this blog of Jay.
Pl note it is HIS PERSONAL blog and he has rights to post whatever he wants. We are here to get a clue to his indicators.
It is pointless to discuss speculative ideas which are usually on forums all around. There can never be consensus.
We are NOT HERE for consensus but to hear a contrarian view.
LET JAY SPEAK his mind every week or day on macro trends and what he sees and if you can not post your positive opinion or some contributing thought PLEASE do not post nonsense and useless leg pulling ideas.
NO USE TO you or anyone.
Pl THINK of covering all your trades with your own care and vision and not rely on others. JAY analyzes based on astro aspects yet he also factors his feel and pulse of the market.
PLEASE DO NOT destroy this blog and stay away from useless posts.
PK
Coy:
Your 13:34 call was on the button and good for 7 point five wave down move that we retraced 50% as of now.
Let us see if this leads to another five down starting about now.
Ravi, we still looking at today being the turning point instead of the 9th?
rrman:
We possibly made the hi today because the ending diagonal looks complete.
It would have been more clearly so had we complete a nice clear 5 wave down today.
At the same time, we did not do anything today that questions the completing of top. Look like we have done a series of one, two, one two of different degrees with pretty sharp retrace of 90% on the last one.
So, top looks in place. But not yet confirmed.
Ravi
ok so is jay saying there's no downturn til 17th?
x
Ravi,
At what point will it be confirmed??
On Fri.July 31 I posted this:
re: TSX (TorntoStockExchange)
All you need to do now is watch for a crossover down of the Weekly SlowStochastic 5,3 indicator. Once this happens you can pile on the "IT" shorts until late October.
A negative Divergence would all but seal the deal too. It doesn't get any plainer and easier than this and from the looks of it it's not too far away. The market willl probably get exuberantly Bullish at the same time.
Candi
----------------------------------
Well, the slowstochastic is attempting turn down. If crossover occurs next week, note the NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE on MACD,HISTOGRAM & SLOWSTOCH. This could be it until Oct.
Candi
Andre:
Confirmation of end of diagonal five can be:
1. If wave (v) often overshoots line joining 1 and 3, then getting back below the line may confirm. Today, at 1008 we did not overshoot so this early confirmation indicator is simply not available this time.
2. When wave (iv) low is broken. We got this when we went below 994.31 today, but by less than two points. Count that as a confirmation.
3. A clear five wave down will add to confirmation, but we can also go down in a 3-3-3.
Jay,
Do u have the new map from Chanaka
Thanks
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
It's hard for me to write this because I know that many people will not understand what I say. But, here goes: I like SRS and FAZ as buys today. SRS is at $11.80 pre-market. FAZ is at $25.64 I think that ultimately they go much higher. I believe the "real estate" boom is baloney. I think that this move in financials has to be faded. I think that when all is said and done, SRS will be back to $15 or higher and FAZ back to $40.
But, I know that there will be people who say that it's time to jump in and ride this bull. And, I know there will be people who will email me to say that I've been "wrong" for the last $3 points on SRS. But, those folks will be only partially right. I've been wrong about some short term entries. I believe I will be proven right about the long-term strategy.
You may recall that I liked a stock, DTO, a while back. The first trades I called on that were money makers - easily so. But, I got emails from people who held DTO - against all rational thought - as it moved down from $94 (where I first liked it) to $68 - where I REALLY liked it.
Yet, when DTO climbed back to $100 again, I did not get one email from one of the prior flamers to say, "Hey, you got it right - even if it took a few weeks."
The truth is, that, I would have been OUT of DTO before the plunge. If you are a member of my service, you know that I preach NIGHTLY about stop/losses. And, I have a clear, easy-understand system for stops.
But, even if you assume NO STOPS on DTO, it ultimately made money for anyone that held it.
SRS and FAZ are stocks I believe, like DTO, hold promise as a way fade the baloney story about real estate and financials. I also know that stops must be used to protect against being "wrong". If someone were to buy any stock and not have a stop/loss in mind, they would be making a mistake. But, that's true of any trade I like.
There are other rules I would employ with a trade (position sizing, etc). Those rules are also stressed nightly (and, daily in my live room). If you want to know more about these rules and other trades discussed, join my service at http://augustspecial.joindh.com
Sincerely,
Don Harrold
Market Minute: August 6, 2009: Main resistance level still holds for S&P 500
The main resistance level of about 1000 continues to hold for the S&P 500. This line is the barrier that has held the broad-based index since October 2008. As the new 4-month trading cycle began in early July, time is slowly running out for any additional advance. The mid-point of the cycle is in late August. This means that downward pressure can be expected to build in the second half of the cycle which is September and October.
Probability models (Monte Carlo) indicate that there is only a 25% chance of the S&P 500 trading in the 939-1202 range over the next 100 days. In the August newsletter (pages 8 & 9), the importance of the 1000 level is explained plus the historical pattern of bear market bottoms since 1900 is reviewed. This combined data continues to imply a high probability of lower numbers in October.
Bottom line: The S&P 500 is anticipated to have an positive bias in August. That pendulum should begin to shift in September and October. Models indicate the low of the current 4-month trading cycle is in late October.
Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA
If I am going to be subject to advertising graffiti, I would see the yellow teeth ads, or even the fat ads, rather than investment service self-promotion posts. Man, its as ugly as it gets!
Jay, you were waiting for the beginning of the drop on August 10th ............now you post a crash alert for 17th-20th August........are both things valid, or is there a change of perspective ?
WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The futures just EXPLODED UP!!!!!!
BULLISH
jj
Bears are getting slaughtered this morning. Going to get a big short squeeze today for those eager shorts from yesterday.
peterk
The diagonal count is out.
Looks like we are working on a v of a regular (v). i yesterday was 992.49 to 998.64 for 6.15 points. The iv may have ended at 1002.07 low so far today.
992.49 998.64 6.15
998.64 996.08 -2.56 41.6%
996.08 1009.52 13.44
1009.52 1002.07 -7.45 55.4%
1009.52 1012.02 9.95 1.618
Target 1012 to 1014 (38.2% retrace.
Since iii of (v) was smaller than i, and iii can't be smallest of i, ii, v, for the new count to stay valid the max is 1016.76,
1 968.65 996.66 28.01
2 996.66 982.85 -13.81 49.3%
3 982.85 1007.12 24.27
4 1007.12 992.49 -14.63 60.3%
5 992.49 1016.76 24.27 max
the move up from 869 has one character to keep in mind. The count for fourth wave is not clear. That makes rest of the wave count iffy.
likely done at 1015.31
just how ridiculous has this rally become? nothing is working in this trend,unless your blindly trend trading with military -like discipline. no turn dates,astro,indicators or elliott wave,i look at a few so called elliott gurus on the net and none of these guys are even getting close.changing there counts every day again and again.its a bitch this game,you seem to be doing great for a while then some history making run like this comes out of the blue and your back to the drawing board significantly poorer.the lesson is to always set stops and keep to them because its times like this your ass gets handed to you. danny.
what happened to get ready to short? Get ready as in wait another week?
Semiconductor index ($sox) down today - not a good sign .
I think Jay may have been confused with a few dates but his pronosticate may be valid.
This market is due for a retracement atleast if not a reversal. All commodity indices are down, USD is up and Oil is at peak for current trend.
A retracement may be in store.
Overall we may be for a real bull trend so do not waste your time going against the trend.
All this mumbo jumbo is useless if you can not see the macro trends.
pk
If you did not short after my 11:10 posting with stop loss just above 1015.31, now is the time do so.
Man, you perma-bulls haven't got a clue what's about to go down.
The NASDAQ and commodity exchanges are leading the way here.
We're headed down into late next week then a small rebound , then BOOM to the end of Aug.
Then a rebound into early to mid Sept , then KABOOOOOOOM!!!! into late October.
Kapeeeeesh?
Donald D
Is Coy here with any updates
SPX just made a hi by .06 but DJI did not
If the media hasn't run away with the day:
High of the day 14:17.
Hey Donny,
Based on what???? You sound like me.
Crash, crash, crash. We're both just guessing.
Crossing of 1016.76 invalidates the count I posted in the morning. Back to the drawing board.
Does it mean that we may be in minor i of iii of (v)? If so, we have extended fifth wave with much higher target. Difficult to comprehend, so need to look into that possibility before a minor ii down of iii gives a chance to stop loss. I need to redo the count to see if this is possible.
ALL YOU GUYS TRYING TO PICK A TOP, CALLING FOR A CRASH.
STOP IT!
We are in a Brama Bull Market!
The only suckers here are the bears trying to anticipate a top almost every other day.
This is getting ridiculous.
This is a sickness that never finds a cure.
The TREND is UUUUUUUUPPP!
Roger Bomber
Though cash SPX broke the rule of 3 can't be smallest of 1,2, 3 for a count to be valid, it perhaps is not the case with futures
CASH SPX, so far
1 968.65 996.66 28.01
2 996.66 982.85 -13.81
3 982.85 1007.12 24.27
4 1007.12 992.49 -14.63
5 992.49 1018.00 25.51
SPY with after hours as proxy for futures
1 96.98 99.83 2.85
2 99.83 98.27 -1.56
3 98.27 101.07 2.80
4 101.07 99.42 -1.65
5 99.42 102.00 2.58
This needs to be checked with futures data, but based on SPY that includes after-hours, the max point will be around 1020.5.
I am SHORT, SHORT ,SHORT. The only thing that will shake me out of my Long Term Shorts is if President Obama walks out in front of the white House pulls his pants down and does a crapper on the front lawn.
Jimmy
With all due respect elliot wave only
truly works 'After' the fact. It's
too subjective. Like everything else
in a basically Random market it works
enough of the time to keep people
interested. That's the beauty of a random market, everything works some of the time.
ROFL Jimmy, now that's a sight I can do without much less the imagination of,
Cal
Atilla,
My work is based on the ritual mating patterns of the African Dung Beetle.
Donny
Donny,
That's what I figured. I tried that,
and it doesn't work. See sol's blown
up account.
you can stick a fork in it. Rally is Done.
pkk
Atilla,
Too early. Give my Dung Beetles a chance. This is new research never attempted before. OK?
If in a month my Dung Beetle mating Cycles fail, then you can say it was all bullshiit.
Donny
Donny,
Fair enough. In the mean time I'm
modifying my modified P-Index.
PKK
This rally has a lot of fork marks in it already. It just won't die.
Jake
Youre right.
Time to take it out of the oven and take my cleaver to it.
pkk
////JAY/////
"Baby come back"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hn-enjcgV1o
We miss you bud.
Billy
Short-Term Geocosmics
Prepare yourself. We are about to enter one of the most potentially explosive geocosmic time bands of the year. Starting this Monday, August 10, and lasting through August 26, there will be nine important geocosmic signatures occurring, with no more than 4 calendar days separating any two consecutive ones. This is known as a “geocosmic cluster.” But this one is not just any geocosmic cluster. This one contains three powerful Level One geocosmic signatures. As reported in “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Vol. 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles,” Level One signatures have the highest historical correlation to primary cycles from which the longest and most severe reversals tend to follow. But it goes even beyond that, because these Level One signatures involve the explosive planets Mars, Jupiter and Uranus.
You may remember from previous columns that any time there is a cluster of signatures involving these three planets in any combination, the possibility of very large price swings is great. On Friday, August 17, the very important Sun-Jupiter opposition takes place. Historically this aspect has a 75% correlation to primary or greater cycles within ten trading days. And 50% of the time, it is a 50-week or greater cycle. We are in that time band now, and the market is making a new high for the 50-week cycle. On Monday, August 17, the Sun will then be in opposition to Neptune, another Level One signature with a 74% correlation to primary or greater cycles within 13 trading days. The passage of the Sun in opposition to both Jupiter and Neptune is known as a “translation” to the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction. Then, on Tuesday, August 18, the Sun will form a waxing square to Uranus. This powerful signature has a 76% correlation to primary or greater cycles within 9 trading days. It will also mark the end of the Sun’s “translation” to the Saturn-Uranus opposition, which began Monday, August 10. But note that Mars, Jupiter, and Uranus are present during this cluster, especially August 14-18. This could get interesting.
Paul Tudor Jones takes the opposite side. From his 3 aug letter to clients:
"Slowing growth in China and the return of front-page stories on swine flu may be “further catalysts for global equity markets to pause in September,” the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm said in an Aug. 3 client letter, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News.
Tudor said the 47 percent gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of the largest U.S. companies since March 9, when it fell to a 12-year low, is a “bear-market rally.” The index topped 1,000 for the first time in nine months this week after companies reported better-than-expected profits.
“Impressive counter-trend rallies are a feature, not an oddity, of secular bear markets,” Tudor said. “We are not inclined to aggressively chase the market here. Many doubts remain about the sustainability of this recovery, most prominently the weakness of household income growth.”
UK,
Not sure what to make of your info.
Markets may get more volatile up or down on any number of days you mentioned. So how are you playing it.
What trades are you making?? Thanks.
Currently short SPX , NDX , FTSE , all as of Friday close.
Adding shorts on any more strength , using trailing stop on any down move , in case we tank from here.
Simples.
UK Trader,
Your Short-Term Geocosmic article is most interesting. It's the political fallout that bothers me the most.
I can see you meant Aug 14 for the important Sun 180 Jupiter.
UK Trader,
There are those that believe all hell will break loose following the end of the Saturn-Uranus Translation, Sept,Oct.
Amazingly , the last time we had a T-square involving Saturn , Uranus , Pluto was 1930 -1931 , just before the market collapsed after the 51% rally after the initial collapse .
This set up happens every 80-90years
The market went on to fall 89% from the highs.
The next T-square is due Nov 2009 - Aug 2010.
This is when I expect the Dow to fall to 3800 and SPX to 500- by Aug 2010.
Simples
And I think the collapse will be due to tax and interest rate increases - very soon , together with PE re-pricing , due to the absurd forecasts of SPX $75 .
I expect SPX at $40 and below for 2010.
The hardest part is picking the top - due to panic buying which happens at the final stages of a bear market rally.
Shorts - do not capitulate - I am adding anything over SPX 1000.
Spx will fall below 500 next year.
Could get interesting next week - to coincide with the explosive Geocosmic events starting Aug 10 to Aug 26
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NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve will probably allow its $300 billion Treasury-buying program to end over the next six weeks as signs of a housing recovery prompt the central bank to unwind one its most aggressive and unusual interventions into financial markets, big bond dealers say.
With the Fed no longer a constant, large buyer of Treasury notes and bonds, benchmark yields and mortgage rates will likely rise. But that threat isn't expected to prompt policymakers, some of whom have expressed increasing alarm over the prospects of higher inflation from the Fed's ultra-loose monetary policy, to extend the program.
The Fed is likely to reinforce that they are not going to be in the market after the $300 billion is up," said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, head of U.S. fixed-income strategy at Barclays Capital, one of the 18 primary U.S. government security dealers that trade with the Fed.
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Sure they can end the program.Which means that the 10 year TNX will shoot up to over 4%, effectively making bonds the preferred instrument vs. stocks.That means that the stock market is in for a massive dip."
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UK Trader,
It seems the FED has been testing the waters by holding back buying the last four trading days, permitting the 30-Year interest rate to go up from 4.311 to 4.603, putting Financials on a tare. If they go on a buying spree, stocks including Financials will decline.
Coy
I think I need to clarify. When I say Financials, I don't mean bonds. I mean financial type stocks, as in AIG, C, CIT, WFC, BAC, FNM, FreddieMac.
I think if TNX shoots up over 4 , and mortgage interest rates going higher - this is really anti-stimulus .
I don't think the markets are going to like this too much .
Could it cause a crash - or severe sell off ?
Possibly - especially after the run up we have had.
One the exit door is opened , everyone will be scrambling to get out all at once.
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