Ravi
What was that - today ??
Wve " v " extension ?? higher high on close for spx , and dow
10am LOW was right on TARGET = wv iv
9/3 is now shrouded in mystery
some say HIGH, and some say low
As I pointed out b4, the Morning of 9/2 at 10am is due another HIGh & TURN
39 hrs Aug 17th at 10am
SPT 2nd at 10am and again at 3;30 is the next HIGH & TURN
SPT 8/and or 9th is THEN the NEXT IMPORTANT LOW TURN
Tomorrw propens index so far shows the day as DOWN as does the power index.
$$ NEWS is Supposed to be HARSH- not so good GDP?? maybe the catalyst
Conjecture
IF we get a very strong sell off to the 1000 level or there about,
IT would mean that the 31st & 1st should NOT make new highs
power index for 31st starts out LOW at 300, and jumps to 500 at close
so it should END as an upday, but its too soon to tell how high
Last day and First day syndrome usually are UP days for the month
Thanks again for the great comments
some very good fill in info is being offered here and is very valuable to traders.
Some one talking crash for Spt 1st is NONSENSE
reference last years Spt was NOT good for stocks, but very good for bears
8/28/08 was a HIGh at 11,715
8/29 was off nearly 170 pts to the 11,550 area
9/2 opened higher at 11,800 , then took a dive to 11,516 close
9/9 was lower also
AND
9/17/08 was 1000 pts lower to 10,600 - CAUTION with that one this year
more later
Jay
Jay
49 comments:
Jay:
I posted in the wrong link after 6 PM , so I pasting that below. We are in 5 of C { or (v) of 1 of B, that I consider remotely likley, but needing a stop loss, as I have discussed. Today, I thought we are getting an extension as part of 5 of C. But, it looks like, we got (v) greter than (iii), which is ok since (ii) was greater than (i):
OK, so 4 of C was done at 1016.2. looks like , we finished (i) of 5 as well today, as posted at the wrong link earlier:
(i) of 5 of C
i 1016.2 1019.56 3.36
ii 1019.56 1016.63 -2.93 -87.2% of 1
iii 1016.63 1025.3 8.67
iv 1025.30 1022.61 -2.69 -31.0%
v 1022.61 1033.33 10.72
all of (i) 1016.20 1033.33 17.13
So, next step is retrace in (ii) of 5:
38.20% 1026.79 -6.54
50% 1024.77 -8.56
61.80% 1022.74 -10.59
50-62% area likely target, since it is in the area of iv of (i) on way up and it can test the line joining 2 bottom at 980 ish and today's 4 low at 1016.2. Actually, that line should not break and may not get tested either.
Then comes (iii) of 5:
(iii) of 5 C ???, speculative
1022.74 1050.5 27.71634 1.618 of (i)
1022.74 1046.4 23.67366 1.382 of (i)
1022.74 1039.9 17.13 1 of (i)
At times, (iii) can be smaller than (i), in which case (v) will be smaller than (iii) and there is no better situation to put stop lass against expansion.
(v) of 5 of C should be a bit higher than (iii). Target around 1044.13 hi of October 14 last year, a fourth wave. This may break the wedge just a bit.
6:09 PM
Here is the top of the wedge that takes into account the small prior break (same as I posted a few days back)
Date**** Day**** LogTop***
27-Aug 121 1040.76
28-Aug 122 1042.27
31-Aug 123 1043.78
1-Sep 124 1045.29
2-Sep 125 1046.81
This will allow us reaching 1044.31 target by Monday or Tuesday. May be even 2-3 points higher where Z= .618 of X as Dan Eric points out.
As I mentioned, a small intraday break of THE wedge is ok. Let us say target is 1040-1050, more like 1044 to 1047.
As posted earlier, I got out of 55% of my short at 10:09, just a minute short of the 4 low today. This was from four different tax deferred accounts that went breakeven, and I hesitated getting out of the other 45% in the 5th taxable account where I could have gone long immediately. My trading plan is to do that around 1022-1024 area tomorrow. Get out of long in and get back to short. Where do you expect low in time?
Once the top of these five waves are behind, I am most certainly putting a stop loss right above such a top.
Jay, I think this will be over by Monday, Tuesday. Once done, only the stop loss matters. Any higher high, you will be looking into 1120 area. I don't see that, but that is what the stops are for.
Until 5 is over, I do not care about any timing beyond that at this time.
Jay
Your 10 AM low came at 10:10, your 11 AM low was even better since it came at 11:01. Your idea of averaging the two and looking for 10:30 was wrong.
What is critical is to catch the wave (ii) of 5 correction tomorrow AM. Nothing else matters right now as for as timing is concerned. Focus on that.Let us hear, what you come up with before the open on that.
Target for (ii) tomorrow
Make that 1022.5-1025.3 and NOT 1022-1024 ass mentioned in earlier post. That corresponds to area of wave iv of (v) and 61.8% to 50% correction.
Jay:
You posted as following:
"Conjecture
IF we get a very strong sell off to the 1000 level or there about,
IT would mean that the 31st & 1st should NOT make new highs..."
We started 5 at 10:10 today. The only way we can go to 1000 level tomorrow is that 5 truncated short of 1037.75 today, or does so tomorrow AM . This will have to preceded by breaking the line joining 980ish low of 2 and 1016ish low of 4. Possible , bot not probable.
chris carolan has posted his updated Solar Lunar Model it kind of went off the reservation the last two months but he said Aug. 29th with the red Tidal Date is almost identical to the
Jan. top that the chart called he says we should turn Aug 29ish ...
http://carolan.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/verge.gif
SAM,
Don't post Ian's intraday CIT's unless you post every single one of them.
Ian's daytrade service is "NOT GOOD". He gives you 5 different scenarios and hopes one hits the mark. There are only 7 hours in the day for crying out loud.
Ian's stuff is a garbled distraction more than anything else.
Not to mention he charges people for that stuff. If you pay me half of what he charges, I could throw you 5 different combinations if you like.
People should be careful what they pay for.
The TRUTH is the best way to trade intraday is obtained for nothing....you just have to be determined to find it.
Donny
Pre market indicates that we did not finish (i) of 5 yestrday. Likely ended at third wave of iii extending.
Donny is right. Be aware of Ians calls. Like recently he's called major tops only to be exceeded.
C
I agree with Donny and C about Ian's calls. Once Ian's calls were put with Jay, we got confused. We should stick to Jay's call helped by Ravi, PG, Coy, Victor and others.
Mahendra said yesterday to buy SMN and FAZ
Thanks Ravi
Your wave count looks great
Spt 2nd at 10am = 39hrs x 2 from =78 hrs from Aug17th at 10am with the 25th in between at 39 hrs
The outlook for today indicates a good start as the futures are also pointing higher, but losing some strength at 9am from earlier reading
The PROPENS index which peaked out yesterday at 3009 DROPS steadily to 2998 at close and continues after to 2994
WHICH IS LOWER than it was on the 23rd, which is a caveat for bulls
power index this AM is FLAT at 100
and has been there all morning from about 6am
150 bars and 25.5 hrs at 4pm today agrees with the above
Last year
March 10 dow was at 11,700
July 15 dow = 10,960
Aug28th dow = 11,700
by Spt 17 = it was 1000 pts lower
DOnt expect a duplicate this year
BUT Spt 8/9th @ 10am = 39 hrs from Aug31st at 10am, yet to be seen, but both should offer short term turns
more later
Jay
One has to wonder if 5 of B gets done by one extended wave today itself.
Otherwise, the wedge will break on the next up.
Ian is an excellent timer, but his daily / hourly times can confuse
I prefer to identify the lows of the day per bar cycles
today has 90 bars at 11am which coincides with the hourly turn
126 bars at 2pm
150 bars at 4pm & 25.5 hrs from 25th.
propens index says a TURN after open, and timing wise, would most likely be at either 9:45 and or 10am
Ravi
opening higher today reaching 1037.50 right now at 9:15 just as they shut down futures trading
What does that do to the wve count?
Jay
Ravi
I was JUST thinking the SAME THING
IF 5 of C done today at open?
Jay
Nice place to short
jj
Jay:
I think we finished, are finishing, the v of extended (iii) of 5. So one down to (iv)to say 1030 area and then (v)above morning hi.
The key question then will be: are we off one degree? Is this entire thing just (i) of 5? A stop above the next hi necessary after we start backing of big time or just in (ii)
only break of 1016 will confirm that 5 waves from 978 done.
This is where wedge top is today:
28-Aug 122 trading days 1042.27
On futures, that include after and before hours, 5 is done.
Cash only,needs one more up and down as pointed out earlier.
Take your pick.
stick a fork in it. she's done!
jj
Prechter just sent out an email saying that the market has met their minimum requirement for a top and said they are 100% short.
With the slight new high today, the SPX technically could have put in the 5th wave.
Sally
Jay, Coy
Do you have an intraday Low Time ?
Mark
SPX has retraced 50% of move from 1016, DJI more.
DJI will break the rising line joining 2 of C and 4 of C, which is around 9520 now , close to 61.8% retrace. Such break, if sustained may signal possible end of C.
Tricky count:
Yesterday to 2:30 a (i), an extended a,b,c for (ii) correction since?
Can be dangerous to shorts.
OK' A break of 1016 is the confirmation of a finished wave
"C"
activity bumped up one notch to 133, and now another notch while I type this to 166 -which might be just enuf to hold it up for one more run at 3;11pm where Moon 60 jupiter
but THEN the CLOSE would be a swoon in comparison IF they DO hold on till 3;30pm
the above scenario STILL Allows
for a higher HIGh on Spt 2nd at 10am
which mean Aug31st and Spt 1 are UPSIDE biased days as IVe already indicated
UGHHH - HOLD ON -another scenario could develop
A high on the 31st could TOP off the wave at 1044 area.
SPT 1 & 2 at OPEN could FALL OFF
to a LOW at 10am leaving the 3rd to rally to 3;30pm
Hadik & Stan Harley
BOTH have picked 9/3 as the HIGH of the current trend from 978.50
on Aug17th leading up to the FULL MOON on the 4th.
Keep in MIND the FULL moon is followed quickly by MERCURY Retrograde , and LABOR day closed on 7th.
DAy after a Monday HOLIDAY can be quite bearish and astro aspects are in alignment for that to the 9th.
Jay
Ravi
take a look at the 6 month chart of AIG as a substitute for the SPX and or dow.
wave high on May7th = wave 1
Wave LOW july10th = wave 2
wave i & ii of 3 complete on 8/4
wave iii of 3 still in progress
Has enuf time to get to OCT 10th before topping in v of 5
which means its getting setup for iv & v of 3 in Spt
Jay
I like Ravi and jay's scenario that break below 1016 is good short entry for IT ETFs.
Or 1050 stop as 1070 and even 1120 are also in the cards.
Top will be from unexpected level, which can be rationalized by EW after the fact.
the more plausible unexpected levels are
1040 which ocurred or 1055 or 1080. as at 1055 people will be looking for 1070 and at 1080 we will look for 1120.
just a thought
You guys are making me dizzy with all those EW vounts. LOL.
sALLY
jay,delta has the 2nd(centred) as a low point,so timewise not too much of a pullback from here,looks to me like this uptrend is gonna continue up after a small a-b-c.
it's RALLY time.
jj
DJI close to breaking 2-4 line now at 9525ish
2-4 broken on dji. first confirmation of top.
We get a rally now so I can load more shorts.
jj
spx breaking 2-4. second confirmation
wow. this thing falls more we won't get a rally or rally is moot.
hadik, hartley, delta all wrong.
jj
spx bounced from 2-4.
Hi JJ
thanks
but
Youve got to be more precise than that - as I write this, the spx dropped another 2.3 pts
Activity index hit 166 at 11am, and is NOW back to 100 indicating continuing weakness
A low might occur at 1025.09, but I doubt it, thats ONLY 23.6%
AHA
just broke that one at 1024.39
levels are
23.6% = 1025.09
38.2% = 1016.18
50% = 1008.99
62% = 1001.69
If this AM @ 1039.47
was wve v of 3 of C
then any of the above are viable
for wave iv of 5 of C
AND it could easily break into 3 stages a-b-c
Im using Spt 2nd OPEN as a LOW &Spt 4th OPEn as a potential TOP to generate the above scenario
"a" should be today at 4pm and or Mnday at 9;45
"b" should occur on Tuesday AM
or by noon.
"c -iv" should then occur on Spt 2nd at 10am
the 13 day cycle ocurring on the 3rd at 10;30 to 12;30 should open the door for the last 5 waves
on the 4th
Today has 120bars at 1;30
or 126 bars @ 2m
and more important is
150 bars at 4pm
OR
156 bars at 10am Monday
watch 120bars verses 126bars to get a feel for the next cycle
Jay
Ravi, could this spx bounce from 2-4 be a part of new leg down of the big THREE? HOW WOULD YOU CONFIRM THAT? i GUESS 1016 BREAK?
dANERIC HAS ALMOST CALLED THE TOP FEW MINUTE AGO:
Option 1) If we were to count the waves as I have them in the NASDAQ charts, the market has topped. Just apply the same counts to the SPX and the SPX would have topped also.
i WOULD NOT SWEAT IF WE MISS THE BIG TOP AS DOWNSIDE IS FEW HUNDRED POINTS IN LONG TERM THAT IS 12 - 24 MONTHS.
If its a bounce (2) from new down leg (1) then the bounce most likely will stop 23, 38, 50, 61 % of 17 points decline this morning.
approximately 4, 7, 9, 11 points bounce off 1023
just talking out loud to understand EW counts
bye bye blog.
don't need this insult.
market rally within 15min of my call.
how precise u want me to be?
u should be the one to talk.
jj
jj
that was NOT meant as an insult
Yes we got a rally from 1023.13
but 5 more spx pts were lost right after your post at 12;05 spx was at 1028.
that was a 27% loss against the 60.96 gains from Aug 17th
Its now 1;30. and the rebound has recovered 4.86 to 1028.10 at 1;35pm
Since Im expecting 126bars at 2pm, it should be near another turn lower
Jay
JJ
How much MORe precise do you expect me to be
HOW many people in this world can call a LOW at 10 am Yesterday & a HIGh this Morning at 10am and it was ALL DONE in ADVANCE
YES, Im to PUSH the mkt lower to satisfy the bears, but it wont listen to me.
I guess it has its own mind[g]
Jay
jj says Harley, Hadik etc are all wrong. I'd like to see jj's market calls other than a VST trade.
In several posts I said Aug. would near a high while everyone else was snortin' and shortin'. I simply held my ground but have very recently taken considerable profits.
So, jj, lets see your call for the next several weeks. I'm interested.
Right now I've taken no positions until I see the weekly numbers in my system this weekend.
Cal
thanks Mike
Jay
We need to close down. I'm not sure.
High 14:50
Low 15:10
High 15:50
Coy
go to new thread
jay
The high hit wasn't very effective. I have greater confidence in a close down.
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