thanks for posting some REALLY good infoRavi, PK, And some new names- Don Harold, & Don D
UK trader - good Astro updates
Ravi - we should conference - send me an email
Spx hit 1018 which is exactly a 1/2 murry math cycle from 1002 to 1032
My volume and A/D internal technical numbers have been dropping all last week,
and should show up in lower price levels next week
PLEASE do NOT ASK ME HOW LOW -
I will not allow you to set me up for a reprimand
because you told us the mkt would be at $ on a date, and it didnt happen that way
I get enuf of that at home[gg]
As previously posted --Aug 10th shows best chance for SELL OFF to start
Power index & Propens index BOTH AGREE on a decline
And it looks like a LOW Friday Am & this should lead to a higher close on the 14th,
but it should be a lot lower than Aug7th.
UK is right about the 14th Sun 180 Jupiter and it has a POSITIVE effect
Heres my outlook this week
Mon & tues lower
Wed = flat & expect a snails pace day
Ths = higher till about 2pm, then lower at close
Fri = lower open, then higher at close
Jay
34 comments:
Chanakya's chart shows a crash / severe sell off from 8/10 to 8/20 .
This is in line with the short term explosive geocosmics in that time period.
I have a feeling TNX will move over 4 , spiking mortgage interest rates.
That could be the catalyst.
The Federal governments idea of creating jobs by taxing the private sector and borrowing money and then using this money to fund public sector jobs will not work. It is a net loss. Neither will bailouts of auto companies, banks, insurance companies and now States, Cities and municipalities.
Fact is the US is broke and the total amount of money printing by the Fed has just gotten started. They can not stop, slow down or discontinue their QE program because even if they did for short time interest rates would skyrocket and kill what private economy remains. Real estate would again plummet only worse than before and mortgaged backed securities would fail, State and city tax revenues would crash and the Fed would again have to come in and print tens of trillions just to get back to point of where we are now.
Hi UK
thanks for the CONSTRUCTIVE updates
Please do keep your comments short, and its OK to edit.
in other words, come to the point without long explanations.
As you know, we have some HEAVY astro the next 10 days. some of which can make us toss and turn.
Tomrrow is ONE of those HEAVY days and should be a bearish delight.
Tuesday is a HALF 55 tr day cycle
from April 20th lows= 27.5 tr days
Any LOW struck this week by friday AM, should be met with an a-b-c against the NEW DOWNtrend into Monday's close on the 17th.
What happens next is for NEXT week
more later
Jay
Chinese cookie fortune tonight read as follows {FINISH up OLD tasks}
Hmmm
869 x 1618 = 140 + 869 =1009
July30@ 3pm was last 26 hr cycle
add 26 + 13= 39hrs = Aug 7th at 3pm
Bulls set up for a WHACK
reading for tomrrow
HEAVY burdens
Watch your finances
Expect squabbles over $
no new commitments
Jay
Hi Jay:
Welcome back.
I am bit confused about your statement:
"869 x 1618 = 140 + 869 =1009"
I suppose you mean .1618 or one tenth of 1.618. To my knowledge that has no significance, but an interesting relationship.
EW count has been difficult from 869.32, especially after 2nd wave bottomed at 872.81; as in "where was fourth wave" and "what kind of fifth wave are we in".
Bigger picture is that we are done with 38.2 % retrace of the big move down and have met minimum target for P2.
Yes, we may have been doing the A of the third zig zag up since 869, and we are likely done but no guarantees. But it can not be ruled out that this move from 869 is the entire big C instead of small A of it -which would be very bearish right away. I still expect small B down followed by final small C up.
Longer term investors, not traders, should start moving to safer harbors irrespective.
For traders, the last four weeks showed that trading discipline is often more important than reading the market. This is where I do not see your 'slicing in' or using options as a good discipline. More on that later.
I will contact you at your e-mail.
Ravi
Caution Bears. Downside bias dissipates right after the opening bell, today.
Coy.
I don't know what your timeframe is but I see downside pressure lasting at least this whole trading day and into next. There is a short term intraday Cycle that will turn up sometime today perhaps later( this is what I think your referring to), but that cycle will produce another low into tomorrow.
Jergen
coy,,
Won't stop me from going short today.
sally
Jay,
Wed is FOMC day ... so we will rally from morning into the FOMC announcement at 2:15pm. What happens after that I have no idea. Depends on what Zimbabwe Ben says or not.
FWIW, the weds the week before opex
is usually very volatile. That is
this weds.
Tues is fed day
Opps fed is Wed, didnt see revised schedule
Ck,
Go pull up a 15 min SPX chart on FOMC days and tell me what you see for the last 12 months leading into the FOMC announcement at 2:15pm. I have no idea why rallies happen into the FOMC announcement, but it seems to be a never failing pattern, even during the 08 crash. Your rhetoric fails the smell test. Take your blinkers off and play the market as the patterns dictate, not as you would like it to behave.
Coy, any readings update
Thanks
Reza,
A narrow trading range from here to the closing bell, except around 15:20 we get the high of the day.
Coy
I failed to mention the low around 14:00.
Please note that I will be removing offensive comments most especially from ANON's
Jay
Thanks Jergen - thats my view also
Thanks Coy
2:15 - 2;20 low so far as you posted
we also got the TYPICAL 11am HIGh & turn lower
astro would project another high at 3;30 also mentioned by Jergen
but a lower close today @ 90 bars and or OPEN tomrrow
Arak;
power index shows potential for lower close on WEd = Fed day, but HIGHER open on Thsday -then lower close
Lower open possible on Friday at 10am to 10;30 on 252 and or 258 bars respectively
BUT strong Up day on schedule for 14th. Sun 180 Jupiter at 1;54pm
I WILL BE VERY TEMPTED TO GO 100% short on Friday's close
but more about that later
Jay
welcome back Jay. iwas away too on a business trip and glad that did not get to see market reading much. very depressing. Hope that next two week will bring joy to the bears.
sam
Jay,
Just delete ALL of the offensive comments. They add nothing.
Thanks for cleaning up the low IQ junk,
Cal
Coy,
What does the crystal ball say for tomorrow?
Its 7pm, and Im still researching
5day ARMS and 5 day TRIn both gave a technical sell signal today
Similar to June29th -dow at 8529, then 8days later it was at 8140
NOT a big sell off, but this time Astro has more punch next week, and 8 days takes us to the 19th where I expect a selling climax
UNLIKE Chankyas map which I posted a couple times, we cannot EXPECT the 20th to be the LOW--
Heres the way it lays out for me
Aug7 high
Aug 11 might try again
Aug 14 ,AM LOW
Aug 14 a HIGH and it might be the real one, and would add some cement if it fails to beat out the 7th.
Aug 19th & 20th LOW
Aug 21 to 24 BIG RALLY
Aug 26th LOW
thats all for now
any more and it will just get lost in the shuffle
The MKT closed on an UPTICK, which means the 90 bar cycle LOW has to hit at open- ONCe that is over in the first 15 minutes, the rest of the day can proceed to make gains. which is also indicated by the propensity index.
there is a midnite high tide tomrrow which helps to influence mkts higher also, and no significant astro, other than positive sun # jupiter @3:46 AND a moon 60 neptune at 4pm
the reading for the 12th indicates that REALITY sets back in on FED day which is opposite the fed day track record that ARAK mentioned
BUT the FED has NOTHING NEW TO OFFER and everyone knows it.
Expect the 13th to be UP till 2pm before selling off to a low on Friday AM
then the 14th has potential to make a new high, and if it busts out above 1018, it could get to 1031, but thats only conjecture.
NOT a guarantee
Referring to the model for June29th to July 10th, it should not make new highs this week, but we do need at least a 25 pt spx loss by Friday AM to avert such an event.
Jay
The count for the fifth wave of A is a bit fuzzy which leaves the possibility of hi above 1018 in 1031 area open
Break of 992.49, August 6 low, should confirm to a high degre of certainty 1018 as A hi..
Further to my last post that is in line with EWI update yesterday, Dan Eric has a different count.
Dan count A done with a diagonal 5th at 1007.12 hi on August 4, and the 1018 hi as b of extended three wave correction from 1007.12.
Both counts have similar near term implication of start of B, but differ somewhat in calculating retrace and in confirmation.
The day looks to play up, down, up, down.
Highs of the day: 10:00, 13:30
Lows of the day: 12:10, 14:55
Most interesting part of the day:
Up to a high: 13:30
Smacked down, low: 13:40
Looks like the market opened down
Typical FBS this morning.
Donny
what's FBS?
Linton,
FBS is an acronym for "Fakeout, Breakout, Shakeout" that typically occurs at a top/bottom intraday cycle.
--fakeout into the Top/Bottom
--Breakout
--Shakeout by retesting Top/bottom
You can also refer to FBS as "f@#king BullShit" and still not lose it's meaning.
Donny
BTW, Have I coined an acronym or did someone come up with this FBS elsewhere.
Just asking. Because repeating "FBS" at CIT's has done wonders for my trading.
Donny
Banks screwed that up.
We'll see if it comes back into sync later in the day.
Potential path for first down:
(a)
a 1018.00 1005.26 -12.74
b 1005.26 1010.12 4.86 38.1%
c 1010.12 1000.99 -9.13
(a) 1018.00 1000.99 -17.01
(b) 1000.99 1007.30 6.31 37.1%
(c) 1007.30 979.78 -27.52 1.618 of (a)
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