IMO, the reason this chart has VALUE RIGHT NOWis because 120 tr days from MARCH 6th takes us to August26th
I have proposed the following wave b4 and here it is again
correction phase as of Aug7th high at 1018 at 1;15pm
got to 992.76 at 1;15 on the 11th
rebounded to 1012.78 at 3pm on the 12th
Futures this AM were up to 1012 again, but have dropped off after 8:30
but still holding at 1009 & Activity index holding at 166
IMO, We are in wave 1 & 2 of CORRECTIVE wave "a"
wave 3 of "a" should start tomrrow or Monday at the latest and end on the 20th
astro for tomrrow hits the high notes at 2pm, and the high energy should wane right after
WAVE 4 of "a" hits for a rally on the 21st and most especially the 24th
THE ENERGY changes dramatically on the 25th and makes the 120 day low on the 26th
for the low of a corrective wave.
more later
Jay
43 comments:
OH OH - Cramer calling for small correction - either he's dead wrong or the correction will be LARGE
Today's influences
PROPENS index takes a DIVE later
in the day today
3005 to start
3010 by 2pm
2994 at days end
258bars @ 10:30am
everyday we have
11am
1pm
3pm
as usual highs and turns
OK, its NOW almost 10am and the
mkt has taken a hit dow now off 29
and sliding further
As I wrote yesterday
DOWN-UP DOWN
it did start UP but on a very modest gain
hmmm, now of 53
Jay
Jay, Ravi and Coy
Any readings update for us. Jay mentioned down, up, then down for the day and Friday down.
Jay.
I'm with u 4 2day. Nothing gained accept for ugly close. Up tomorrow though like u r expecting.
chris
very near the 61.8 retrace and just reacting off it now.should be the line in the sand.could be a gift of a buy,but small stop if not.
Todays Picture -
A negative bias hangs over this market. It wants to go into negative territory. And I don't mean shallow.
Approximate time of low and high points:
Low 10:00
Lower low: 11:50
And Lower: 14:15 Likely low of day.
Likely high of day 15:50, dropping back.
Jay,
With ALL due respect Buddy, can we say that IF the market is not substantially Lower on or about the 26th, then there is something wrong with the system??? Just asking.
JOHN R
Lets reserve judgment for Aug 26th
I have called MAJOR turns very effectively and my attempts in between have been met with mkt strength, even with small declines
I am AVOIDING price levels, but will continue to project changes in direction
A while ago I had posted Aug 10th as an IMPORTANT high
just because I try to catch intermediate turns, makes it seem that I miss the mark often, and as WE ALL KNOW, calling the mkt on a DAY TO DAY BASIS is NEARLY FUTILE - as the BORG would say.
SO, I guess ALL OF you dont want to know WHATS NEXT as MY work suggests
Today it looks like 10am hit 252 bars on a truncated 258
THAT WAS THE DOWN I expected from the open -
10am confirmed by COY also hit that on the head-thanks
Astro has a power hit at 12:30 with Mars 120 Jupiter, and at 2;14pm we have a moon 120 Jupiter
AFTER which there is NO SUPPORT and a LOWER low should hit at 10am tomrrow morning according to the propens index.
POWER index has just ticked DOWN
from 166, now at 133 which should keep the mkt from gaining much strength
more later
Jay
Jay,
I agree 1 million percent. Let's see what the 26th brings.
Jay, I agree also let's see if the market is substantially lower on the 26th. So far though Chanakya's map
is invalid.
My 7:45 AM post today in earlier chain ended with:
"A retrace in the range of 1000-1007 may be in card followed by another 27 points up to 1027-1034 range to complete A,B, C under Dan's new count that I referred to last night."
We got the low at 1000.82. the move up from there is impulsive and has one more small down up left to complete i of the wave up from 1001 to 10027-1032 area. say i completes at 1012-1014 in next 5-15 minutes. ii down will take us to 1006 plus minus and then iii up can go beyond 1020.
Let us see
I don't think I properly framed 15:50. I don't think it will be the high of the day. But a very strong effort to the upside.
From Ian: FYI
CITs: 10.00, 11.20, 1.05 and 3.35 pm
Hourly CIT: 10.35-.1140 am
Actual: 10.00 LOD (Sofar),
Intraday pattern: 10.30H, 11.15 Low, 12.45 high, 2.00 Low, 3.40 High
The intraday pattern is biased to be Up. If 11.20 CIT is a Low, it would confirm the pattern.
Sofar we have rallied into the 2nd hour CIT, so it is possible we have an early High, but the MC, of exact, has us closing near the Highs.
We are in the Time window for a High, but I won't be shorting this prematurely. Itis best to wait on 8/17's double CIT and expected High.
Mike
Ravi
the OBV on the 5 day- 5 min chart is NOT showing strength with the most recent rally from 1000.82 to 1009.92
ditto for 10day- 5min and 15 min charts
macd is rolling over also
activity index is now FLAT at 100
its now near noon and the jupiter
aspect is just a breath away- can they run it up to 1018 MAX, or is the previous run up to 1012 going to double top here
I really dont think there is enuf juice to get to 1031, even on an intraday basis
I'll be back after 12;30
Jay
From Ian:
When Price, Time and Cycles meet, they give a 90-95% chance of an important Change in Trend (CIT).
8/13-17/09 should be an important swing High. Here is why.
Price: There are 3 Price targets. The broken wedge TL Resistances (back-kiss) on 8/13 are at 1020 and 1028-32 SPX, the latter is also Fibonacci Resistance. Major Resistance at 10.53.50-1055.50 SPX, which are 70.7% and 50% retraces.
Time: The next thing I look at are my proprietary CIT Timing points. I have found over the years that they are only a few timing methods that actually work precisely enough to be useful. Most of the daily CITs that I use are often exact to the day, although at times, they could be off by 1 Trading Day. There are 2 CIT Times, one is Thursday, 8/13 and a double "hit" on Monday 8/17. Furthermore, there is a reliable Astro-based CITs that are due on Friday 8/14: 8/14 is a Sun opposite Jupiter and the Midpoint of Jupiter Retrograde and Jupiter Direct.
Cycles: There is a long term fixed 8/16 week Cycle due this 8/14 week and we have rallied into it. I have already discussed the proprietary Master Cycle (MC) that suggests we make a Major 8/13 High and 8/17 Highs of the Month.
My conclusion can only be that we are making a Major High in the next couple of days due to the confluence of Price, Time and Cycles
It seems that this matches jay's work. next week we should see good down and friday-monday window to be in a good short position
Mike
Mike.
What??? What time period ISN'T covered?? C'mon. Intra-day trading
has been proven to NOT work. Markets
move randomly. There is NO proof to the contrary. Sorry.
BenZ.
It's your mind that's still randomly thinking, not the markets. There's a big difference. Get your mind in tune and then you can see what we see.
jfk
MIKE, Thanks for Ians timing
Im sticking with my day timing form the bar cycles and hourly
sofar, IM right on target
10am @ 252 bars, a truncated 258
and 11am HOURLY high & turn
12:30 jupiter HIGH
2:25 jupiter high
the READING FOR THE DAY SAYS
Good first half of the day
SETBACKS in the AFTERNOON
FRIDAY reading
DONT SPEND $$
CHECK your wallet to avoid loss
its a FEEL GOOD DAY, but
More later
Jay
JFK,
Tell me what do you see???
Clearly please. Benoit Mandelbrot
a famous Ivy League math professor
wrote a book proving that short term trading does NOT work. So please
tell us what you see clearly? Please.
The 11:50 didn't work out very well. Bonds didn't cooperate. A good market controller under the Fed. I'm pretty sure they're going to let the next high take place around 13:30.
BenZ:
I cannot show you my work unless you pay me a $20000.00. I guarantee you will be enlightened. Depending on the trading instrument and your account size, you would make that money back very quickly.
jfk
BenZ:
A system(method) is one thing but a lack of discipline and unbridled emotion will kill any success.
Not every man with a quick draw can become a gunfighter.
jfk
JFK,
With all due respect go to a sight
such as marketguru.com and post some trades for a short time and prove your system or post some of your trades here. Otherwise your are no better than atilla.
Jay:
On that 1930 chart, I think that the first down from the rally top was to 118th day not 120th.
That may or may not matter in your comment. 2 day window for this parallel would be nothing.
Ravi
JFK,
What is your position and outlook right now??? Briefly. Please.
Markus7:
I need not prove to anyone but me which I've done already. What did I say to prompt your remark? It seems unrelated to my thought.
jfk
How have you proven yourself??
It seems that August 26 is given very high importance see flash twitter and here is a link to the u-tube in his message
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_aReYGnCbY
sam
The Heavy buying of the 30-Yr TB took us down! Check out the yield $TYX I'm going to have to declare my timing invalid today.
JFK???
What is your outlook, what does YOUR
system say. Put up or please shut up. Talk is very very cheap.
The market hit a 10 day HIGH yesterday and nearly matched it today, which proves Chanakyas map invalid. Wasn't this suppossed to be a down week??? With a BIG DOWN DAY.
JFK??? JFK???? JUst like I thought,
another all talk, no walk.
Ben,
WHY are you picking on JFK?
do you have something CONSTRUCTIVE to add so we can all benefit?
COY,
the 30bar cycle at 1pm accompanied the 1pm TURN and provided a lift to the 1013.14 for a brief second.
And your 2;15 low seems to hitting the head.
2pm is weaker than I would have thought, but the Jupiter energy may be already spent.
as evidenced by
the Activity index NOW at 66, just one tick away from its lowest values of 33.
Monday has some heavy hitters aboard
11;15am =Merc 0 Saturn = a DOSE of reality and demanding
4;55pm= Sun 180 Nptune
= disillusionment & perplexing
concerning $$ ~~ frustrations & impaired judgement
Tuesday
Tensions & recklessness
watch out for explosive actions
caution traveling
Wed
Caution with $$
maintain your focus if you can
avoid spending
ths
plan long range
upsets at night
Fri
early news severe & upsetting
52 hr cycle at 2;15pm
Jay
We are in sync.
Jay, As you often say please go back and read the posts. I commented on
the numerous cit times of Ian, and then JFK rebutted my remarks. So I
simply defended myself. If JFK can prove markets are not 99% random with
some trading calls then he should.
But he won't because he can't. I have
ADDED something. Markets CANNOT be day traded. They are RANDOM. If anyone can prove other-wise great. BTW your margetguru account shows a negative return on the year???
closed out this mornings long for 6.5pts,had over 10 in it at one stage,but fancy taking profits here,not sure what it gonna do now in the last hour.but jays readings are down so better safe than sorry.
looks like down up up...nice try again.
thats about right,you wait all day for the move then they crank it up in the last hour just after ya close!
tick tock tick tock...before the bomb down goes off. It sure looks like Fridays close or Mondays open is the place to go short.
Charlie
Charlie,
And if it's not Friday or Monday,
it might be tuesday or Weds. You are just guessing.
Hey James& co.
If all we do is guess here, then take off. Nobody's forcing you to come to Jay's blog. Where's the logic in hanging around feeling miserable. If it's all guessing then why trade? If you're not trading then why turn on your computer? Go away. It's pretty clear you don't have the temperament to trade. I do understand to a degree what makes you guys tick. I see bitter and broken traders all over the internet all displaying the same symptoms of resentment and self-loathing. Go away. See a shrink. bang your girlfriend or your boyfriend or your camel. Just don't waste your precious time trying to feel better about yourself by criticising others.
Ok buddy(s)?
Charlie
Propens index needs some fine tuning. This is a daytrader's dream for a market. Forget about holding more than a few hours. I shorted the close yesterday covered this morning, but didn't play the rally. Just shorted the close again. Look at my track record and even a regular trader like me has been calling the market better w/out astro, pee indicators, jupiter's orbit, propense index, etc...lol.
pg
Am I the only one who thinks we tank tomorrow? Hope so, hate to be w/ the majority blog followers...Heavily short at the close.
pg
Charlie,
It's the guy(s) that write the most who are the MOST miserable. I didn't say I guess or everybody here guesses, just that YOU were.
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