Check out the OBV on the chart above
10day- 15 mn chart
Friday's low was at 90bars @ 11;30
Monday
150 bars @ 10am
180bars @ 12;30
204bars @ 2;30
Tuesday
228b@ 10am
258b @ 1:30
30b@ 4pm-- A LOW POINT
Expect Wed to OPEN strong, BUT AVOID the temptation to spend
more later
Jay
28 comments:
thanks for your Blog J. Are you still short or where do you stand at this stage?
dear Anon
please register as a member
thanks
Jay
Dear Members,
Dollar is gaining momentum so stay long with US Dollar. Today in Asian market all major currencies started moving down sharply and they will move down big way so don't buy at any level thinking that prices may bit recover. Watch Australian, Canadian, B Pound and Euro as these all currencies will have step fall, which will push prices toward to new lows.
Yen and Swiss Franc will gain against all currencies except dollar.
Gold, silver and copper is ready to move down big, so stay short as big money to be made in coming days.
Oil also traded weak on Tuesday and it will trade weak from here.
Soft commodities trading weak, cocoa will remain weak but avoid sugar.
Corn and wheat are trading weak another few weeks both of these grains will trade weak for the few weeks before new bull market starts.
All major Stock markets are trading weak, we strongly recommend avoid any new buying.
Thanks & God Bless
Mahendra Sharma
www.mahendraprophecy.com
We got the turn lower as expected in my last stocks post but there is an even more interesting spiral alignment this Friday 8/14/2009 that involves almost all the highs and lows during the decline from the 2007 high. f15, f14, f13, and f10 are all within a day or two of aligning with Friday, which raises the possibility of a push higher into a high on that date.
http://spiraldates.com/
Re Spirals Anonymous
Is that your work? How many days +- is allowed by it?
When you say, "which raises the possibility of a push higher into a high on that date", what date are you referring to? Are you talking of a hi that will lead to a reasonable correction right after that date?
My EW read is that scenario of A top at 1018, which is what EWI is calling its preferred count. In my view this requires a clear drop below 992.40 on Monday. Pretty much around opening or so.
If we go above 1013 first, Dan Eric's EW count that brings up a strong possibility that after completing A a few days back, the sideways action has been a large triangle that has either completed B or will do so with one small up down on Monday or so before shooting above 1018 in a C,meaning that the elusive correction of B, will be missed before we realize it. Hence a stop loss at 1013 is recommended, until we break 992.40 decisively.
EWI has hedged by saying a top in 1031-1044 for A is still possible, without showing detailed count for it. If we enter C, those target may be minimum and it can go much further in a realized end to P2 as shorts cover and longs sell to them.
These are two very different scenarios. Under either of them, I do not see just one day of higher high.
A great thread from TT board supporting JAY'S call for a Top in early October.
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=110033
Sally
Sally:
Thanks for the url. It talks about the big picture that this rally will be followed by big drop.
Our discussion has been re shorter term. Are we going to correct the move from 869 staring from 1018 and continuing tomorrow. Are we done with A up from there or even A and B? Did I miss something on that short term picture at that url?
Elliot waves are subjective and are
only clear after the fact. Bob Prechter himself one of the masters
of Elliot Wave analysis had a very
mediocre record over a 10 year period. (1997-2007) And he wrote a book on it. Not trying to ruffle
elliot feathers, just warning people
to be careful placing trades only
on it, because there's always an alternate count. Markets are random.
Tony:
Yes there is always an alternate count, and with that EW allows one to put a stop loss where the alternate count becomes more likely.
You need to change your mind when market does contrary to a count. EW tells you better than any other method where to that. Most important, in any method it best not to trade at all unless the reading is highly likely and reasonably tight stop loss is identifiable for at least 3:1 advantage. Compulsive trading and looking for 100% surety are the traders biggest enemies.
Ravi,
I agree. But one still has to wonder why a guy as smart as Prechter
who wrote a book on it, still wasn't
able to beat a S&P mutual fund for
a 5, 10, and 15 year period. Shouldn't the value of a methodology be based partly on the probability of producing a profit.
Tony:
When you publish a letter, you loose flexibility of a trader, specially e-wave trader, where flexibility and discipline is important. You get wedded t your published view.
The 1995-00 extension was not expected and he was let in recognizing it. The b wave from the 2002 bottom lasted very long but ultimately proved to be b wave with sharp drop from 2007 to below 2002 bottom.
So what we have is bigger 7 year top than what he envisaged in 1995.
Thanks Jay, but how do I register as I found no link on the homepage. Appreciate a nudge in the right direction.
-Troy
Very true Tony and thanks for your wisdom.
TROY & other anons
Just add yourself as a follower
Thanks
Jay
Nikkei down 2% as of now in early Monday trading
The big guys, as in GS, JPM, etc, have painted themselves into a corner. There is no more, anybody else to buy from. The first one to sell is the winner. It just cascades from there.
Like I said Friday we are going down hard tomorrow morning...it's early, but world markets support this view. I don't use astro, pee indicators, flux, ew, whatever...just looking at price, volume, momo, and time.
pg
The equivalent of 992.40 break to confirm 1018 top is in place iin pre-market.
Now it needs to act as a resistance. 38.2% retrace from Friday after market hi and today's premarket low is also in that neighborhood.
Apparently, the B triangle scenario of Dan Eric is eliminated.
Jay,
What do the bars mean? Higher bar numbers = higher market and lower bar numbers = lower market?
Monday
150 bars @ 10am
180bars @ 12;30
204bars @ 2;30
Tuesday
228b@ 10am
258b @ 1:30
30b@ 4pm-- A LOW POINT
pg.
good method. Same as mine. Heck, I don't even use volume many times.
re: "Time" - That's where the secret is ;)
gh
Arak-
You surprised me
I thought you were paying attention & learning something
there is a 21hour cycle which was discussed and can be converted to BARS as I have done, which is DIFFERENT from the 26/52 hr cycles.
21 hrs =258bars LOW TO LOW, BUT NOT ABSOLUTE LOW TO ABSOLUTE LOW
just a low to a low AND the MARKET breathes every 2 +1/2 hours = the 30 bars division
Sometimes ITS 2 hours and sometimes it 3 hrs but on average its 2 +1/2hrs
Find a starting point and begin following by counting hours
A 258 BAR low was DUE on Thsday last week Aug10th at 10:30am
and like any good cycle, it sometime truncates or expands
this one truncated to 10am when the dow dropped 55 pts after opening up.
JUST ADD 3.3 days , 21hrs or 258bars to get to the next important pivot.
Its 1;30pm Tuesday, but ASTRO has a more important override which
can make the LOD at 4pm or 30 bars INTO THE NEXT CYCLE
26hrs cycles are mixed-
hi to hi
lo to lo
etc
52hrs is usually a pivot low
START back on OCTOBER 27th where there was a CONVERGENCE of
52hrcycle and 258bars at 4pm
the next day gained 800 dow pts.
Theres more, but I dont want to feed you too much at one time
Jay
PG
--you say you don't use "whatever".
--then you say you use "Time"
could you elaborate on "Time"?
your statement contains a little contradiction it seems.
"Time"--there are many methods one uses to "time" the markets.
So you must be using something equivalent to what JAY uses.
Mark
PG is right to use TIME and So is Mark when he says there are variations of TIME, as Ive noted SEVERAL TIMES
Jay
I don't really use volume that much either, especially with dark pools and deceiving info nowadays. All I'll say is that any method that claims to predict weeks out is worthless because no one can do that consistently. Farther out predictions or consistent one sided bias is dangerous since that commits you to a path when flexibility is key...kind of like some unmentioned blog calling for a crash every single week since march...lol It's hilarious. I have a bridge to sell those followers. ;) Be wary of any blog offering free service. Learn, but don't blindly follow. I'm out short now...no need to be greedy as there will always be the next trade.
pg
I don't care if the market collapses much further here, I caught an nice move and I believe the bulk of this move is done for today. I could be wrong, but risk management is key.
pg
Way to go pg. I agree with everything
that you said, though I'm holding shorts just a little longer. Guess
I'm just greedy.
Jay, Ravi and Coy any intraday updates for us.
Thanks
Thx Marcus...actually you may be right to hold short here. Looks like they're trying to suck in some traders here looking for a bounce. We shall see. Staying in cash for now...see no clear advantage.
pg
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