Looks LIKE OBV PEAKED at 1:30pm
little 5th wave from 3pm- LESSER volume
and price should follow suit on Monday
Took a short position at 3;55pm, and will plan to sell it at 11am tomrrow,
given a 25 pt spx back off = 200 dow pts - just CONJECTURE,
but a set back to just above 1000,
or just below yesterdays close at 1007 would work well also.
At which time, IF at 11am, I will close that position and go long
HEY PG
does that satisfy your short term trading and posting my trades??
Lets WORK together and maybe ALL of us can benefit
Jay
25 comments:
I tooo bought spx put at 1026. will sell on Mon or put a trailing stop.
sam
Thanks Jay. Let's work together. I hope the majority of blogosphere isn't short into Monday...hate to be on the same side as everyone ;) Have a good weekend!
pg
VC is now flat after closing long at
QQQQ 40.25, from this am long 39.90.
I will post on Monday new signal
at 10:00. Have a grrrreat weekend all.
victor
where is your stop on 39.90 long, or do you wait for VC signal
?
thanks
Interesting is that the Baltic Dry Index is collapsing since June .
This index has a 3 month delay to the stock markets.
I expect market decline/collapse from Sept/October , after the last of the herd "Joe - 6 pack" is done with his buying.
Hi Sam
Please register to become a member and your name will appear at the top.
PG, Ditto above
PG, it would appear the BEARS are blown away.
PC ratios
SPDR = .96
PC ratio = .59
Jaywiz =.43
oex = .84
the above are inferring a bearish mode.
Please lets FOCUS on the matter at hand rather than attempting to
determine whats going to happen next month
As for NEXT week, the astro outlook shows as follows, and Ive posted this several times
24th- Down open then HIGHER
25th up open , then lower
26th SELL OFF
27th lower, then Up
28th Higher then lower close
28th = Flash TURN = to March 6th
___________________
a renewed resurgence to Spt 4th
sell off to Spt 9th
HIGH on Spt 17th
sell off to Spt 27th
HUGE rally to Oct10th
Jay
Ravi,
VC goes flat over weekends to reduce
risk, so the close on Friday was
the stop point at 40.25
Monday at 10:00 is new signal.
I will post the price and percentages
US Housing lifted the market, but no one is talking about the four banks that failed Friday, FDIC announced.
That's 81 for 2009.
As I have posted a bunch of times here on this board as well as at the Volume Dynamics site as well as the Time and Cycles site...
9/6 Gann Turn... 180 degrees from the March 6th Low.
9/6 is a Sunday of course... These turns are usually + or - one trading day.
that leaves us with 9/4 or 9/8
Semi
The turn date for the US stock market is August, 26
The market wil hit the top (2009) next week
A sharp decline -25% will follow
Cheers
Blizzard
SHORT TERM
Support for the SPX is now at 1018 and then 990, with resistance at 1041 and then 1061. Short term momentum is extremely overbought. As noted above, Intermediate wave C of Major wave C should unfold in five waves. From the recent Intermediate wave B low (SPX 979) on monday, we're counting the rally to SPX 991 on tuesday as Minor wave 1, and the pullback to SPX 981 on wednesday as Minor wave 2. The rally from that low certainly looks like a third wave, and we're labeling it Minor wave 3. Early next week we expect a small pullback for Minor wave 4, and then a rally to the OEW 1041 pivot for Minor wave 5. This should conclude Primary wave B. Should the SPX break through the 1041 pivot (SPX 1049), then a further push to the 1061 pivot would appear likely. Remember, we're expecting Primary wave B to end this month. If it does not, then an extended Major wave C is most likely underway. Best to your trading!
Tony
In reviewing the charts we noticed some additional technical evidence of an impending Primary wave B top. We already mentioned the confirmed downtrend in China, which has actually been leading world markets higher, it bottomed with Brazil in Nov08. Also, all the Asian markets were lower this week while western markets made new highs. We also noticed, in no order of importance, the following:
1. Corporate bond risk gapped up for the week, for the first time since Sept/Oct08.
2. The (BDI) Baltic Dry Index, which led the markets higher, has been downtrending for over two months, and
3. The put/call ratio hit its most dangerous daily level and weekly levels since Dec07, illustrating extreme speculator bullishness.
Tony
Jay how do you register? I do not see any thing that says register. thanks.
sam
jay, will the turn dates you mentioned through the month of sept be lower highs/lows??
Meaning to say,the main trend is still down till late sept?
Sam
Just CLICK the box {{ FOLLOW }]
and add yourself as a follower
thanks
Jay
Thanks for the great updates
Last week appears was DOMINATED by the BULLS other than Monday
RE STUDY and Analysis
17th astro
Merc 0 Saturn = DEMANDING
Sun 180 Neptune = Misguided
Merc # jupiter = Disprutions
___________________________
Wed open lOWER
Venus 150 jupiter = restrictions
____________________________
Ths
Merc 150 neptune= confusion
New moon
_______________________
SAT & SUN
Aug 22 & 23
Venus TRINE ( 120 ) Uranus
Sun trine (120) Pluto
Combined trines were very powerful
Chankya's MAP changed & now shows
8/20 as a HIGH - so I will not dipslay the new one- Maps like that no matter HOW well intentioned tend to throw us off the track, and there are plenty of other diversions which do even worse.
__________________________
I have already posted this weeks
astro and daily outlook so i wont do it again here
_______________________
Jay
PART I of August 23, 2009
A. SUPER CYCLE DEGREE:
The key question is: Are we in Primary 2 retracement that leads to P3 later that breaks 666.79 low of March?
I think that the chances are over 80% that we are in P2. On the very long charts spanning decades, I am of the opinion that we need to look at inflation adjusted chart in log scale. There is a 210 year chart of that in CyclePro that is very informative re super-cycles.
B. CYCLE DEGREE:
If we are in a corrective P2, where are we within P2?
We completed either a very shallow B of a simple big A, B, C at 869 bottom on July 6th, or it was the second X in W= A, B,C, X, Y= A, B,C, X, Z=A,B, C just like P2 of 1930. Either way, we are in final intermediate wave since 869. Either an A, B, C or a five wave final C will do the job.
What are the potential targets for P2? The Fibonacci retracement of P1 is as follows:
38.2% 1014.14
50.0% 1121.44
61.8% 1228.74
Other important target are listed below, in my view 1098.14 is the most formidable resistance where we fill the ‘recognition gap’ of P1:
Oct 3 '08 Low 1098.14
Oct 14 '08 hi 1044.31
Nov 4 ' 08 hi 1007.51
(NDX is relatively closer to 50% retrace and the recognition gap)
After finishing the triple ziz-zag and P2, the market does have to head straight into a crash below March low. It can for example , eat up a lot of time making a triangle which preserves P2 high but lasts months, making two lower highs before plunging. If so, this would be very different from 1930. Even if current P2 looks so very similar to 1930 P2, keep in mind that 1929 P1 dropped around 50% in something like one-third the time of Oct ’07 –March ’09 drop of 16.5 months. With opposite policy response with trillions thrown in, it won’t be a surprise to have an extended duration for P2 that only a triangle can deliver.
C. INTERMEDIATE DEGREE:
This is where traders, as opposed to investors, live. Where are we in the move from 869? Let me use (1), 1, (i), i for differing degrees from higher to lower degrees within Intermediate from now onwards.
C.1. COMMON INTERMEDIATE COUNT:
From 869, most count 1018 as end of five Wave A, as follows that implies that we B ended at 978.51
Dan Eric, EWI and few Others have this count:
Wave A, Common
(1) 869.32 887.86 18.54
(2) 887.86 872.81 -15.05 81.2% of (1)
(3) 872.81 982.49 109.68 5.92 of (1)
(4) 982.49 968.65 -13.84 12.6% of (3)
(5) 968.65 1018.00 49.35 2.66 of (1)
All A 869.32 1018.00 148.68
All B 1018.00 987.51 -30.49 20.5%
C.2. ALTERNATE INTERMEDIATE COUNT
The common count has wave (4) as retracing only 12.6% of wave (3), this lot lower than what is considered minimum retracement of 21.4% (1- square root of 0.618). (3) was getting rather long and almost everybody was looking to enter short to catch an elusive (4). Once EWI called 1018 as top of A, it has remained stuck in that position.
If you look at the unmarked SPX intraday chart from 869 bottom from 6 feet away, you really do not see a (4) jumping at you between 872.81 bottom of (2) and 1014 top. The following count becomes a strong alternative, and it is looking like a preferred alternative to me. This makes 1018 as top of (3) of A rather than end of A. The implication is that we started (5) of A and NOT B from 978.51. Here, (4) is a more reasonable 21% of (3). This leads to 1036.05 as a target on this count, where (5)=2.618 of a baby (1).
Wave A, Alternative Count
(1) 869.32 887.86 18.54
(2) 887.86 872.81 -15.05 81.2% of (1)
(3) 872.81 1018.00 145.19 7.8312 of (1)
(4) 1018.00 987.51 -30.49 21.0%
(5) ?? 987.51 1036.05 48.54 2.618 of (1)
PART II of August 23, 2009
D. MINOR DEGREE COUNT
D.1. FIRST, THE WEDGE
Let us examine the top of the wedge, on arithmetic and log charts, that SPX has formed. This is important in looking for next target (or a blow-off point if broken clearly). Trading days shown below are from March 6 as zero day. (The arithmetic line is only about one point lower than log line, I prefer log for longer term)
Date**** Day**** Arithmetic* Log****
7-May 43 929.58 929.58
7-Aug 107 1018.00 1018.00
24-Aug 118 1033.20 1034.02
25-Aug 119 1034.58 1035.49
26-Aug 120 1035.96 1036.96
27-Aug 121 1037.34 1038.44
28-Aug 122 1038.72 1039.91
Note that this line, if still intact, reaches 1051 on September 10. The 1930 P2 topped on 122 calendar days, the day this one hit 1018..
So, next week the top line of wedge goes through 1034-1040 area rising about 1.5 points a day. Note that this is pretty much in line with Wave (v) of A where (v)= 2.618 of (1) for the Alterative intermediate count shown above with 1036.05 target . A clear break of this upper line of the wedge on closing basis will be game changer , since the line parallel to the bottom of wedge is around 1172.41 on Monday August 24 and is rising 3.6+ points every day, reaching 1216.77 on say September 10th!! Stop losses are truly meant for those breaks, but small breaks do not matter specially if not on closing basis.
D.2. CURRENT MINOR DEGREE WAVE FROM971.5
Now, coming to the minor degree wave count, here is what Dan Eric and EWI have :
• Eric ‘s very detailed count says that the third wave extended and we had iii of (iii) on Friday. A few small ups and downs for fours and five of different degrees ahead, and we get to top of C. (But it being lower degree wave cannot be ruled out).
• EWI as usual does not bother with the more detailed count and shows the first five up from the 978 bottom is about done, implying no wave extension. The material difference with Eric’s count is that EWI has these five together as just wave 1 of B in its preferred count. Implying much higher target for C.
D.2. 1 Below is how the current Minor degree count with extended third wave looks to me: This implies a series of fours and fives ahead to complete five waves
PREFFERED COUNT, with third extending
1 978.51 990.38 11.87
2 990.38 980.62 -9.76
(i) of 3 980.62 999.61 18.99
(ii) of 3 999.61 993.22 -6.39
i of (iii )of 3 993.22 1006.03 12.81
ii of (iii )of 3 1006.03 1003.59 -2.44
iii of (iii )of 3 1003.59 1025.94 22.35
iv of (iii )of 3 1025.94 1021.8 -4.14
v of (iii )of 3 1021.80 1027.59 5.79
all of (iii) of 3 993.22 1027.59 34.37
(iv) and (v) of 3; 4 & 5 ahead
D.2.2 Below is the alternative Minor degree Count with no extension, but a strong 5 on Friday, still smaller than 3: This is what EWI has as preferred count. But according to EWI , this is just Wave (1) of B; with (2), big baby (3), (4) and (5) right ahead .
ALTERNATIVE, Friday was end of a five wave move
1 978.51 990.38 11.87
2 990.38 980.62 -9.76
3 980.62 1006.03 25.41
4 1006.03 1003.59 -2.44
5 1003.59 1027.59 24.00
All 5 978.51 1027.59 49.08
If we think of the mid-point of iii of (iii) of 3 in above count as the middle of the entire move, we get 1051.02 as a feasible target. Almost same as Eric’s target, arrived in some different manner before Friday.
Mid-point Distance Target
1014.77 36.26 1051.02
PART III of August 23, 2009
E. GOING FORWARD
E.1. For the Count from 978.51 that considers Friday a iii of (iii) extension: Going forward, a speculative path may be:
Retrace (iv) of 3
38.20% 1014.46 -13.129
50% 1010.41 -17.185
61.80% 1006.35 -21.241
(v) of 3 at 38.2% 1014.46 1033.45 18.99
(v) of 3 at 50% 1010.41 1029.40 18.99
All of 3 at 38.2% 980.62 1033.45 52.83
Retrace of 3 21.39% 1022.15 -11.299
38.20% 1013.27 -20.181
50% 1007.04 -26.415
61.80% 1000.80 -32.649
Wave 5 if21.4% retrace 1022.15 1041.36 19.21 1.618 of 1
1 to 5 978.51 1041.36 62.85
This speculative path ends around 1041.36, which is possible by even the end of next week, with only a minor throw-over break of the wedge. This is darn close to 1036.05 that we get by simply projecting Wave 5=2.618 x Wave 1 as shown under Intermediate Degree Alternate count earlier. The wedge top is near there next Wednesday!
E.2. Implication of Alternative Intermediate Count
Even though I see the minor count from 878 similar to Eric’s, I am thinking that this is wave 5 of A. This implies that after teasing around with top of the wedge as early as coming mid-week, we start B down (less likely P2 down):
All A? 869.32 1036.05 166.73
B?? 21.4% 1000.39 -35.658
38.20% 972.36 -63.690
50% 952.68 -83.364
61.80% 933.01 -103.04
F. THE REAL ISSUE AHEAD, IF IN C
The critical issue for trade ahead is NOT the first correction wave down in early next week (it starts Monday if no third wave extension, or does so a couple of days or weeks later from 1036-1044 area if the extension proves out).
The critical issue is simply this: When done, is this all of B from 978.51 or five wave 1 of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ahead! If it not all of B, wave 3 will surely signal itself by blasting through the wedge. That is an important moving stop loss point for short positions.
H. IF IN 5 of A
In case, we are in wave 5 of A, we should have a deeper correction ahead in a B and plenty of room left for C to go higher without breaking the wedge.
A? 869 1036 167
21.39% 991.87 -35.72
38.20% 963.80 -63.79
50.00% 944.09 -83.50
61.80% 924.38 -103.21
Prior 4 1018.00 971.80
Here the bottom of the wedge becomes important. The wedge, in log scale, on Monday has the bottom at 960.69 and rising about 3 points a day, it would be at 990.89 on September 8th.
Tony:
what is your 1061 resistance based on?
Jay:
Re your posting for the new chain:
As in my detailed posting, if we consider Froday as third wave extension, which looks more likely than fifth done; retrace level are as below
COUNT: Third Exension on Friday
all of (iii) of 3 993.22 1027.59 34.37
Retrace (iv) of 3 21.39% 1020.24 -7.35
38.20% 1014.46 -13.13
50% 1010.41 -17.18
61.80% 1006.35 -21.24
I think, we will be lucky to get to 1014.46 by 11 on Monday, if that.
25 points ony if have completed five waves and it was all of C. In that case, it is totally different ball game.
Dow can reach multi year high before it crashes in end of October so better it move down 10 to 12 percent now from here... Sunday, August 23, 2009
Dear Friends,
Here I am putting July last week newsletter, which we sent after solar Eclipse of 22 July 2009. Currently stock indexes are moving up sahrply and if they keep moving up then we see worst crash n end of Oct or early November which will be worst than 1929, 1987, 2000 or 2008/09 in all major stock markets. End of October 2009 can bring step fall in Asian, EUROPEAN and USA markets. Hong Kong can reach 5000, BSE 4900 Dax 1800, So batter all stock market start moving down from this week and doing this will save destiny. If they don't move down from this week then Dow can hit new multi year high in the next two months before it crashes.
Thanks & God Bless
Mahendra Sharma 23 August 2009,
CONCLUSION & UNDERSTANDING SOLAR ECLIPSE:
If the market moves down sharply within 25 days of total solar eclipses, we normally see recovery quite fast within six months. However, if the fall fails to occur within one month after the solar eclipse and markets keep moving up, there is usually a big crash within six months or before then next solar eclipse. Data from eclipses in the last hundred years reveals a similar pattern, and last week’s eclipse should do same therefore bring about a mini-crash within the next two to three weeks. Indeed, this will be healthy for the markets, and we shall be on the way to achieving our dream prediction of the DOW reaching 38000, the Shanghai 18000 and the BSE 41000.
If the stock market doesn’t fall within the next two to four months, then my prediction of markets hitting new highs will not come true. On the contrary, we may actually see a worse correction than was experienced in 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2008 two weeks before lunar eclipse of 31 December 2009 or four weeks before Jan 2010 Solar annular. I am a devout student to astrology and nature, and I shall take my time to guide you about this. Strange as it may sound, a mini crash or weak trend in the market during the month of August will make me a very happy man because it will mean a major step towards fulfillment of our prediction. I hope that everyone is clear and understands what I have predicted.
Mahendra Sharma
ravi, futures are already at 1031 what is your read
samamehta
I futures, we needed one more hi to complete (iii) of 3. If futures open around flat to down, cash and future charts will be in synch.
So nothing new , yet.
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