A solid drop UNDER 990 is very negativeand very imminent
ARAK might have his way today with a HOLD till 2;15pm
however, we have
78.6% of 13day at noon LOW
180bars at 10:30
204bars @ 12;30
228bars at 2;30
Thsday
252 bars at 10am
or 258 bars at 10;30
Im expecting a Strong rally Thsday,
It might be delayed until after the open, but dont bet on it.
Today has a fibo convergence 55-11-81 tr dys
PROPENS index seem to confirm what ARAK posted, UP most of the day till fed hour
more later
Jay
56 comments:
Jay,
Is that a ES futures chart?
Today's picture -
The bias today is negative at the open and very negative at the close.
The negativity begins wanining after the open making a high, probably the high of the day, between 10:40 and 11:40.
Another slap down:
High: 15:00 or a little before.
Slapped down to a low around 15:10. We go into the close lower.
Coy
Thanks Jay&Co. If price takes out yesterday's low then I'll be SHORT for rest of the day or more.
Chris
Thanks JAY, RAVI, COY about the updates
is a rally today expected?
The rally today indicates that we were done with a of (a) of B at yesterdays low. (caution we have not yet confirmed A top by breaking 992.49 convincingly). We are most likely in b of (a) of B this morning. If this goes to 1007 and stops around thee we also have the making of a H&S.
Let us see.
looking for 1008 for a short term exhaustion point here,should be good for a scalp
Usually, we rally into Fed announcement around 2:15 and a bit beyond. I did not expect this strong morning rally right off the gate, but a deeper 'a' of (a) of B before rallying into Fed with 'b' of (a) of B.
So do we get a change of pattern and decline into 2:15? More likely. Or do we keep going and challenge or break 1018? Less likely.
Didn't Ian's chart call for a 'crash' type move down from 8/09
to 8-20?? I'm just not seeing it
unless the Fed surprises today.
thats me in short at 1008 (cash market)wont be holding too long though.
Fed rally is always good for at least 10 points on FOMC day. Keep a very tight leash on your shorts at 2:15. If mkt goes higher than 5 points after Fed, close shorts and ride it long.
Where is that CK guy who said FOMC rally is for yahoo boards?
Sorry , but a turn was generated by certain daily cycles, not because of the FED meeting.
Those who follow the cycles will know that this is true.
Cyclesman
chucked the short for a half point loss.madness.bears watch out by the look of things.
Your off by a day jay, strong rally just happened. Good try though. I think we'll hit 1011ish post fed and then maybe turn down...
pg
Its now almost noon as I write this
spx may have topped at 1007.95
Activity index was at 200 all morning till about 30 minutes ago with a 60 min delay
High as Coy posted 11am to noon
and holding till Fed time at 2;15
THe MEDIA is HYPING possible rate hikes - I dont know where that is coming from - the BONDS??
but I doubt they have hikes in mind right now at all.
the PROPENS index DROPS late int eh day and prices should follow lower again matching what COY has presented and what I posted yesterday
SINCE there was NO big DROP today as some had predicted, we should NOW expect tomrrow to open lower until at least the 258bar cycle at 10:30
Thursday's astro should then support a rally till 2pm, where it should then fall off again into friday till at least 10am
Friday/s astro still supports a later rally as does the power index.
more later
Jay
the rally from today's opening low looks like the rally from (ii) at 872, hardly any correction last 2.5 hours.
Ian is expecting this to continue until 8/17. any thoughts? any one got mahendra's call?
The MC was expecting a higher Low with the 8/6 Low, we got that, although it was more like a retest Low.
Today and tomorrow are expected to be solid days UP into 8/13 1st High of the Month, 8/17 is a lower High, get ready for that!
As mentioned before, there is also a seasonal tendency for the market to rally into 2pm of FOMC days, which it is doing right now.
Ofcourse the FED's 2pm decision is always a gamble as to direction and it is best to stand aside then and see what happens, but the MC suggests we close positive today.
MIKE
mAHENDRA PUT OUT ANOTHER FLASH:
Big wave in 24 hours - gold is toward $750, silver $7.80 in first wave and euro toward 1.18......More - Wednesday, August 12, 2009, Mahendra Sharma
mIKE
we have been trading 1007.15 +-0.95 for 1.5 hours. Very narrow.
Dear Members,
Dollar is gaining momentum so stay long with US Dollar. Today in Asian market all major currencies started moving down sharply and they will move down big way so don't buy at any level thinking that prices may bit recover. Watch Australian, Canadian, B Pound and Euro as these all currencies will have step fall, which will push prices toward to new lows.
Yen and Swiss Franc will gain against all currencies except dollar.
Gold, silver and copper is ready to move down big, so stay short as big money to be made in coming days.
Oil also traded weak on Tuesday and it will trade weak from here.
Soft commodities trading weak, cocoa will remain weak but avoid sugar.
Corn and wheat are trading weak another few weeks both of these grains will trade weak for the few weeks before new bull market starts.
All major Stock markets are trading weak, we strongly recommend avoid any new buying.
Thanks & God Bless
Mahendra Sharma
www.mahendraprophecy.com
TIME & PRICE
From Friday high 1018 AT 1;15pm
LOW was hit at 1;15pm on Tuesday at 992.40
THATS 13 hours
From Monday's low at 2:15= 13 hours to 2;15 today - fed or otherwise-TIME is the correct venue- not what the fed does.
2;15 today to 2;15 frdiay = 13 hours
the bigger cycle can be often 39 hours = 6 days x 6.5 hrs
these can be varied
hi to hi
hi to lo
etc
the 52 hr cycle is 39+13
is usually A low to A low
8days from Aug 6th at 2pm = Aug18th
and so forth
next is to match this up with other cycles
Activity index has jumped back up to 166 from the 66 level now2 at 1pm.
more later
Jay
Conjecture
If we can get this rally out of the way now, we might see a break down of 990 by friday AM
Looks like Roubini was on CNBC early AM and made the most positive remarks relative to his prior stance. No depression and low probability of double dip. That probably lit the fire for this rally.
Ravi,
Sounds like all the heavyweights are BULLS now...Roubini, Soros, Jim Rogers...etc...
Mark
nothing is stopping this from making a new high tomorrow.re-test of the old line comes in around 1024.
Jay any changes in the updates.
out for short for 3 point loss.
So much for the big decline/crash.
ARAK,
Did you not get my slap down message?
if we do get a sell off into the close,i will be a buyer,looks like the delta cycles have inverted and tomorrow should hit higher than friday before selling off,kind of makes sense with jays look too.
The after 16:00 market will show the most down.
i hope we do get a nice pullback overnight coy,i'd love a shot at re-loading around 1004 again! i cant see it selling off too badly in asia though after todays strength.
Amazing how HYPE comes in
to try to keep the bull alive
Activity index at 3pm has dropped to 100 from the 166 level earlier
which indicated the rally as we got it.
stretched to the limit
78.6% = spx 1012.52
hit 1012.78 at 3pm
should see a stronger turn lower into the close
Could repeat the same process again tomrrow
OR its possible we get a sell off tomrrow with no drop off today
Regardless - its still setup for a low on FRIDAY AM , with a strong close
MONDAY begins a 4 day SLIDE into the new moon on the 20th
Jay
PaulJ
no one here posted a crash this week
Jay
I really don't know what Asia is going to do. I'm taling about option and futures trading to 16:20.
ok,i thought you were talking about globex.ill probably buy the futures close then as per original thought.thanks.
Jay, I was referring to the cycle map
calling for a 'CRASH' 8-09 to 8-20.
According to the map we should be
substantially lower right now than
on 8-09.
Jay,
Once again, wrong again.
You said in your previous post "EXPECT BIG DOWN DAY TOMORROw" you lying fool. Now apologize to PaulJ. His statement is correct.
Sam
reshorted ES 1010
Seems like you missed the obvious rally this morning. I've been riding this all the way to 1011 and then shorted from there into the close. The bounce off 1003 was expected...the late day selloff was a guess/gift. In any case, better than astro...that's for sure. I think we may go a bit lower tomorrow morning so I'm holding shorts but the big money has already been made.
pg
The markets are getting nastier. Less participants...mostly programs and GoldmanSachs manipultion. I think all the banks and brokerage houses, especially the combined ones, are also making bets and manipulate prices against customer orders. The big money is made in trending markets. Daytrding is becoming a mugs game with all the BS going on.
jiggles
Day-trading is a losers game, period.
Name someone, anyone making a living off day-trading. The big Funds control the market and they are not short term traders. FWIW
This was just another FED ugly day. Everbody seems to think that going short tomorrow is the right trade. I don't know.....which is precisely the time to do the opposite.
Again...what an ugly day.
jfk
SAM
I wrote that SOME PEOPLE were expecting a big down day tomrrow, meaning today.
from now on, you wont get OTHER peoples writings from me. I dont want to be mis-interpreted.
tomrrow as previously projected by ME
should be DOWN -UP - DOWN
still looking for a LOW Friday AM
Jay
PROPENSITY index for tomrrow
shows DOWN - UP _ DOWN
3014 from 12th up from 3001on 11th
3002 morning of 13th
3010 mid day of 13th
3002 closing
Sam
hope that helps
Jay
Jay, u mentioned earlier that there is going to be a rally on Thursday, did it already happen today already.
Where does EW stand as I see it?
The details of the move since 869 and specially since wave ii around 872 have remained murky. Yesterday, break of 992.49 by .09 did not count and DJI did not come close to break. So, we do not have confirmation of 1018 high for A yet.
Today's move up can be read as b of (a) of B from 1018 hi which should lead to c of (a) of B drop without exceding today's hi. One murky problem though. The move from yesterday's low can be counted as a five wave move if one looks at 15 mts charts and neglects 1 minute chart. If so, it can be labelled as i of (v) of A. Ouch!!. That means that after a small move down we can get iii of (v) up, likely stronger than today's move dead ahead as part of a new high in 1031-1044 area. Ouch!
But the murkiness also allows for a move from yesterday low being a lower degree double zig zag in 1 minute chart a,b, c, x, a,b,c. If that, we should break 992 early tomorrow.
What does all this mean for shorts caught in the messy A? If we go above today's hi, it may be a good idea to execute a stop loss and renter at 1031-1044 depending on how the wave behave after crossing today's hi.
EWwise, I had been thinkin about the possibility of something totally different. That A finshished few days back and B finshed ib a side way move. If this be so we fish A,B, C on the next move that started at yestrday's low'
Dan Eric did a very detailed labelling of this possibilty. Absolutel great work.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SoNXz-HvBtI/AAAAAAAABXU/rvaO_
eIoO28/s1600-h/DOW.png
If this be so, we make anew high in a 5-3-5 diagonal fith (oops , yet another!!) and then we go down real big time.
Bottopm line: if stop loss short, better get back in on a 5,3,6 a,b,c completion and do not wait for a 1,2,3, 4,5 to do so. My take. this scenario allows for a real top by say Friday close.
Let us see.
Hi ravi, i'd like to ask you, with reference to your picture
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SoNXz-HvBtI/AAAAAAAABXU/rvaO_
eIoO28/s1600-h/DOW.png
Do you see a big / small drop first before DJIA reaches C @ 9610 which is .618xA
Or would it directly move up with little fluctuations straight to 9610?
Your advice is greatly appreciated
selling out last nights long here for 9.5pts,will wait for a pullback to long again.this is going to new highs today.upper channel is now 1027 and rising hourly,if we are still tracing out an ed its common to have an overthrow at termination point also.theres a lot im looking at to suggest today could be worse than yesterday for the bears.good luck all.
Linton:
That chart requires one down and then one up from yesterday's hi.
We may already have done the down late yesterday or a bit more may be left.
In XPX the target can be the upper trendline or bit beyond at 1027 and rissing as After8 mentions.
Rocketman
Today, 06:22 AM
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http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/
When Price, Time and Cycles meet, they give a 90-95% chance of an important Change in Trend (CIT).
8/13-17/09 should be an important swing High. Here is why.
Price: There are 3 Price targets. The broken wedge TL Resistances (back-kiss) on 8/13 are at 1020 and 1028-32 SPX, the latter is also Fibonacci Resistance. Major Resistance at 10.53.50-1055.50 SPX, which are 70.7% and 50% retraces.
Time: The next thing I look at are my proprietary CIT Timing points. I have found over the years that they are only a few timing methods actually work precisely enough to be useful. Most of the daily CITs that I use are often exact to the day, although at times, they could be off by 1 Trading Day. There are 2 CIT Times, one is Thursday, 8/13 and a double "hit" on Monday 8/17. Furthermore, there is a reliable Astro-based CITs that are due on Friday 8/14: 8/14 is a Sun opposite Jupiter and the Midpoint of Jupiter Retrograde and Jupiter Direct.
Cycles: There is a long term fixed 8/16 week Cycle due this 8/14 week and we have rallied into it. I have already discussed the proprietary Master Cycle (MC) that suggests we make a Major 8/13 High and 8/17 Highs of the Month. My conclusion can only be that we are making a Major High in the next couple of days due to the confluence of Price, Time and Cycles.
This will be my last post for quite a while as I am already supposed to be on vacation.
Attached image(s)
Ian
In the premarket SPY had a hi so far at SPX 1017 equivalent at 7:14 EST AM. Looking at the chart that include pre and aftter market, that completes a five up up from yesterday's premarket low at 990 equivalent at 4:15 AM EST. (On this basis yesterday regular seession was a iii and a iv, with this AM completing the v)
A retrace in the range of 1000-1007 may be in card followed by another 27 points up to 1027-1034 range to complete A,B, C under Dan's new count that I referred to last night.
Retail Sales data apprently disappointed and SPY moved down 9 SPX point equivalent in 7 minutes.
Sorry, that was weekly jobloss claims, not retail sales.
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