NO changes as per prior comments
Power index lays out next week as such
Monday
SMACK down still expected 10 AM & secondary at noon-
no way to know which will be the LOD
index starts at low 300, and finishes at 500
propens index THSDAY was at 3009, and MAKES a PIVOT LOW Monday at 2980
It was fALLING at the close Friday, but stocks did NOT have time to react
NOW THEY DO, and THEY have been chomping at the bit to SELL
Tuesday power index is mixed, but should reach a high at 3pm
after a choppy day, BUT biased UP
Wed OPENS DOWN again on 39hrs and power index at 350, rising to 450
Another CHOPPY day with upside bias after the open
Thsday opens flat to up but makes a pivot low at 10:30, ON the 13 day cycle
and might continue somewhat weak till 12;30/ 1pm
index 450-350- 350-400
FRIDAY EXPLODES HIGHER at the OPEN, and drops off the rest of the day
600 - 300
opposite of Monday
AS ALWAYS, we can NEVER EVER get it EXACTLY right in advance,
but any similarity to the above is PURE ACCIDENT -
HAHAHA - That got your attention
Spt has 2 important high points & or turns
4th
20th
Low points & or pivots
9th
29th
Merc goes RETRO on 7th effecting 8th & 9th ~~
and DIRECT on 29th - EXPECT huge rebound
Full moon on 4th - often at turns
15th ~ Saturn 180 Uranus -- restrictions conflict with rebellion - Trapped
15-16-17 HARD ASPECTS grouping - should sell off
Rebound to 22nd MONDAY HIGH - 20th = Sun 0 Merc- found at hhighs
AND on 21st ~ Venus 120 pluto - ditto
23rd HUGE Negative HARMONIC CLUSTER -
possible VERY BIG DECLINE ending on 28th and or 29th Teusday turn around
more later
Jay
THE NEW JAYWIZ 2023
THE NEW JAYWIZ 2023
40 comments:
Dear Members,
Gold traded weak on Monday as expected as per this week newsletter, and rest of metals remained sideways except Silver. We sees gold prices coming down to $933 either on Tuesday or Wednesday. Silver and copper will remain weak as well. Avoid metal stocks from here, HUI and XAU will move down sharply.
Late Thursday we see some recovery in metals and energy. Also we mentioned in newsletter that Dollar would gain until Wednesday and bit weak trend will come on later Thursday.
We are predicting oil to fall upto $68.80 during this week, so stay short in energy. Natural has bottom out so one can start accumulate gas from Thursday.
Grains to remain weak but corn and wheat is very close to bottom out. This week Friday one can take small position in grains.
Stock market should trade weak if they want to move up in future coming time. We mentioned that there will be sharp correction in all market from Tuesday so lets see, if corrections come or then market will keep moving higher until end of September. One side of coin says 32000 in four years and otherside says 5500 in November, If market doesn't want to go to 5500 and they should start moving down from today.
This week we are very much optimism for US Dollar, it should bottom out around around 78 so accumulate slowly. Time is coming for old relation to take re-birth again and that will be "rising USA stock and USA Economy will force USD dollar on upside".
Soft xcommodities will fall sharply from here so avoid 100%.
Many are worried about deflationary scenario which can create problem in commodity market but reason will be different for weakness of commodities. Many followers should watch next one month closely because next one month will give brief outlook of the next five year. Volatility to dominate all market until 9/9/9 so one should go in and out quickly from trades but after 9/9/9 we will hold position for medium and longer term.
Best trade of Tuesday:
Sell copper, Gold
Sell Australian dollar and British Pound
Our call to stay away from coffee and sugar is still on, coffee can make new lows
One should out 100% from stock market, watch THPW, FRG and Swine flu BCRX
Buy SMN $12.15 and FAZ at $23.35.
Thursday and Friday are negative astro days so avoid because whatever decision you make in trading will go wrong.
Thanks & God Bless
Mahendra Sharma, Tuesday 6.00 AM New York
www.mahendraprophecy.com
We had another small change in the mcClellan Oscillator Friday, down 20.56 after a small change Thursday, down 11.12, suggesting a LARGE price move is likely early next(this) week.
Billy
Interesting action in Nikkei. Gap and crap. Was up 2.2% to multi-month high soon after opening, then gave up all of it and some in barely 80 minutes.
as long as we do not break 1016.2, the preferred count is that we are in a diagonal fifth from 1016.2.
The low on the futures so far were eqvlnt of 1019.9 or so.
Cycles
Longer-term cycles had been expected to top in early August. The fact that the index closed Friday 8/28 only 12 points higher than its 8/7 high is a testimonial to the pressure which they are slowly applying to the longer-term trend. Considering the rash of good economic news which has been published during the month of August, this is not much of a gain. And since this pressure is likely to increase as we go forward, it would seem inevitable that we are near the end of the move which started in March, at 667. Furthermore, these cycles are not expected to bottom until we are well into 2010, perhaps in conjunction with the next 4-year cycle low.
Of more immediate concern, the 13-day cycle is due to make its low on 8/4. This is one reason why the SPX may find it difficult to extend its upside progress at this time.
Andre
SHORT TERM
Support for the SPX remains at 1018 and then 990, with resistance at 1041 and then 1061. Short term momentum finished around neutral on friday. The short term count from the mid-August SPX 979 low appears to be five waves. This could complete Intermediate wave C at a 0.382 relationship to Intermediate wave A. We noted in the review that the market traded relatively flat on a closing basis all week. The last time this occurred was at the SPX 956 Intermediate wave A top during the week of June 8th. This was followed by a gap down on monday as Intermediate wave B was underway. When the SPX breaks the 1018 pivot we'll get more evidence that the top is in. Should the SPX hit 1049 or higher Intermediate wave C is likely extending to the next OEW pivot. We should get the answer this week
Tony
Update 5:30 a.m. - its running out of room to be a wave (ii). Should be a very interesting day)
So far the Sunday night e-minis seems to be lining up with the ending diagonal scenario I shown on Friday's update. Since the 1014 low, it counts well as a bunch of "threes" both up and down as I have labeled. Well, got to get some sleep soon, we'll see what the overnight brings.
Good luck!
Daneric
Things are getting pretty interesting again, due to a host of factors that seem to be converging and alerting us to some imminent changes. Both Glenn Neely and Robert Prechter are suggesting the move up from March has just about reached it's most likely conclusion, reaching or close to reaching ideal targets in terms of price (Prechter & Neely) and time (Neely). In addition, Arch Crawford wrote in his August newsletter that, "September is a truly ugly month right from the start - Overwhelming negative aspect count."
Allan
A couple of charts for consideration - NYSI and NASI (McClellan Summation Indices for NY and NAZ) both went negative on Friday even as all of the major averages made new yearly highs during the day, and turned down for the second time in a month. This one-two punch has led weakness in the past, especially when, as now, that double dip has followed a Seven Sentinels Sell Signal. Fwiw. D
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?s=edcb60834feb9bb7d59635c73364ca64&showtopic=110548
thanks guys
constructive commentary is helpful to the group
a break of 1016 should get to 1009- maybe this AM at 10am and or noon & or Wed at 10am
Chinese mkt drop only a symptom.
156b cycle low at 10am with sun 135 moon
NOON also has important cycle convergence
180bars @ 78.6% of 13day cycle
_________________________
Gyrations UP today should be weak as tomrrow at noon also converges
258bars at Merc 135 Jupiter
a more important low is due at 39hours at 10am on WED.
IT may NOT neccesarily be lower than today, but should act as a pivot to get to a HIGH on Friday at 10am to noon with the employ report as a catalyst for news.
I guess what Im trying to say,
the BIAS this week is LOWER until
Thsday at 10:30 to noon on the 13 day cycle
and UP for Friday, a SHORT TERM PEAK.
Jay
Jay, Ravi
Looks like it could be a TREND day today.
Sally
I think it's almost safe to say the trend for the month will be down. In other words sell the rallies.
Mark
Break of 1016.2 eliminates ending diagonal scenario.
Preferred count shifts to iii of (i) down. Can be counted so only by neglecting one minute bar charts and using only 15 minute bar charts!
If Jay's timing is right, Friday hi would be (ii). If formed with a nice and clear a, b, c; that can be good point to add shorts.
Member
Group: Traders-Talk User
Posts: 539
Joined: 1-November 03
Member No.: 477
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/
Today and tomorrow are daily CITs (Change in Trend) to watch and should be important. A CIT could be a High or a Low.
Daily CIT: 8/31-9/1
Intraday CIT times to watch for 8/31/09:
Hourly CITs: 12.45-1.50 pm EDT
5 min CITs: 9.45, 12.50*** and 2.30 pm EDT.
There is a triple hit at 12.50 pm, that is currently biased to be the Low of the day.
From Ian
VC signal: short 50 percent QQQQ
from 39.95. Stop is 40.20 and
falling.
Ravi,
For clarification, where did your (i) start?
thanks.
Chris
Folks,
Today, Monday, is likely to be the low day of the week. We'll be working upward through the week. Following Friday, we'll be extra heavy over-bought. The week following Friday is a whole new story. All, MHO.
As far as today:
Low 13:39
High 14:30
Low 15:20, working up into the close.
Coy
Now thats more like it
10am low as predicted
Where did it start?
Friday at 1039.47 at 9:45 am
wve (i) should take 5 wves
and wv iii of (iii) should also break into 5 waves which looks like it happening right now
Counting gets complicated
I would venture to guess that Wed at 10am @ 39 hours should complete
v of (i)
THEN
As RAVI pointed out, in conjunction with this weeks timing, we should get to (ii) Friday MORNING
That means the BIGGER decline would be setup for NEXT week, on the 8th and 9th.
the next 39 hr cycle does hit on the 9th at 10am
more later
Jay
Chris:
My (i)down started at 1039.47.
Caution: it is still possible that 1039.47 was not top of B but only top of 1 of B and we are in 2 of B. This possibility can not be eliminated until we break 978.51. Since diagonal (v) was eliminated by breaking 1016.2, we should not go above 1039.47, unless it is a lift off in a 3 under such scenario. In my view, shorts need to have stop loss at 1039.50.
VC update: stop now 40.15 and falling. Short 50 percent QQQQ
39.95.
Propens index says tomrrow moves higher as does the pwer index
As such < I am considering the close today at 228bars AND OR tomrrow's open as the potential low of wave iii of(i)
that gives us iv tomrrow
and v of (i) at open on 2nd
power index showed the open low & also indicates a rebound, but there is ONE indication of a late dip as above
Jay
From the two ananyses below, it seems that September likely to be a down month or the month to get mother of all opportunity to go short, it it rallies. I agree with jay and ravi, wait until 978 break for the top confirmation.
From a very good blog:
http://chaugner.blogspot.com/
Monthly Close
Today will be an important day and a decision time for the market to see if the monthly chart can continue to set new highs going forward. The current monthly open is around 1000 spx for the month. We have one week left and a close anywhere from 980-1010 will bring us another monthly spinner again. As you remember I use this pattern quite heavily as an indication for the month to come. The last spinner we had was in June and it gave us an amazing trade range for July. I dare to say that the market will close the month with another spinner yet again. This pattern will have a high probability to give us yet again a large range for the month to follow. Can it be another amazing up month? Or will it be the strongest down month we have had, one that I was expecting in July that did not materlize
And from http://www.stocktiming.com/index.htm
Remain in cash on the short side. Our NYA Index's C-RSI moved out of negative territory and moved positive on July 16th. while making a higher/high. Historically, Bull markets have C-RSI readings above 10.8. However .... Friday's C-RSI reading went down to 12.2 which was above the 10.8 level ... but there is a problem with the C-RSI strength. From its August 3rd. peak, the C-RSI has made lower/lows and lower/highs. We have been saying that: "That will become a problem on the long side if the C-RSI doesn't make a higher/high in the next few days." Now note what has happened since August 21st. in the close up chart insert of the C-RSI ... it has barely crawled on top of the C-RSI's support line while being Negatively DIvergent to the NYA Index. This poses a "High Risk ALERT Condition" for the possibility of a fast and sharp drop. Caution and risk reduction are recommended on the long side.
Jay, according to what you just posted that would indicate get out of shorts today then reshort on friday?
Hi rrman
there are several opps this week, IF you read the MAIN post
Possible CLOSE today = pivot for higher tomrrow
Open Wed for pivot low for higher day
Thsday =Pivot low at 11 to noon for HIGHER day at OPEN on FRIDAY
game plan is to bug out of shorts at one of those pivot lows
1. either today at 4pm, or open tomorrow.
Or
2. pivot low on Wed
You can short and reshort
OR
buy, sell and rebuy at each pivot-
YOUR CHOICE !!!!
HOWEVER, I WILL BE RE SHORTING at 10 to 10;30 AM on FRIDAY after the EMPLOY report PUMP & get ready for them to DUMP/
I hope that im NOT posting TOO MUCH- it gets confusing & sometimes LESS is MORE.
I hope I am posting CONSISTENT MESSAGES by repeating whats on the MAIN PAGE.
Jay
Thanks Jay thats what I thought I just wanted to confirm I appreciate all your posts..
Hi Jay, for us Longs, would it be safe to say to exit longs this Fri at the high as you suggested for the following week where we have a big downslide
Joseph
You answered your own question
Jay
doing e of a triangle . Then down?
Thanks Jay, really what I guess I shd of asked is do you think will make a higher high on Friday 10am approx to say 1050. If we go up and down all week but as you said we climb slowly is 1050 possible in your educated estimates and peer data you review ??
Suggestions welcomed.
Thanks Joseph
Sorry Ravi, whats your count for this Friday 1040 tops?
thanks Ravi
eats up lots of time waiting for the IRON to get hot
A low Could occur at any of the following pivots
Today at 4pm - not looking like it will hit - its now 3;45pm
Or
Tomrrow at open - doubtful?
Or
Tommrow at 258bars at noon + Merc 135 jupiter - Maybe
Or
Wed at 10am - very likely
or
Thursday at 11 to noon
Jay
Joseph,
I think they will have to FAIL
at any attempt to make a new high
even intraday, thus the I would venture to guess the spx should be limited to the previous high
Jay
MKT 8/28/09 was a super turn; I gotta do a study on fires against MKT sell-offs; seems habitual but what do i know !
Flash
I totally agree with your readings jay. I think we will hit new highs this week despite all the top calling lately.
pg
I think Mike's daily chart will be relevant this week.
http://chartsedge.com/
Tom
I agree with chartsedge in that tomorrow will be a strong up day.
That's how I'm positioned anyways. I bought heavy on the dip today.
pg
Futures are DOWN HUGE!!!!!!!!!!!
SO MUCH FOR DA RALLY.
kk
Hi JAY.
If the Futures stay and gap down at open today, where and when do you see a low for today?
I assume maybe it takes longer than just the open to bottom and suspect it might be down for the better part of today before mounting another rally that would continue into the next day.
One thing for sure is I believe and feel an IT top is now definitely.
Joey
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/
Review of today's Time and cycles:
"Daily CIT: 8/31-9/1 Intraday CIT times to watch for 8/31/09: Hourly CITs: 12.45-1.50 pm EDT 5 min CITs: 9.45, 12.50*** and 2.30 pm EDT. There is a triple hit at 12.50 pm, that is currently biased to be the Low of the day."
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_OSfvk1xrysQ/Spyi...2Bmin%2BSPU.gif
Actual Results:
The 9.45 CIT was the 9.55 Low of the day ( "1" on chart)
The 12.50 CIT was a retest Low at 12.40 pm ("2" on chart)
After some chopping around we rallied into the close.
Tomorrow 9/1/09: Important Times to watch: 1.05 and 3.25 pm Eastern.
Please note CITs normally work only 70% of the time, 30% of them don't. It is best to use them with other tools in your arsenal.
from Ian
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