THE FUTURE

DO YOU WANT TO SEE THE NEXT BREXIT in ADVANCE ?

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Hit the HIGH notes at 3pm

AND the DOW hit 7725 at 3pm & spx @ 810

3pm LOW yesterday turned into a 2:55 pm HIGH today + 200 pts

Did I buy puts -- Yes

made a second FAILED attempt at 3;30pm

AND DROPPING FAST after 3;30

Next update at 8am tomorrow

More Later
Jay

OVERSOLD

PC ratios & Technical data says OVERSOLD

BUT for HOW LONG & HOW HIGH

My Math
till SPX 801 to 807

833-781= 52 pts
52 x 38.2% = 20
781+ 20 = 801
______________
50% = 26
781+26 = 807

Thats equal to a gain of about 160 to 215 dow points
_______________

You get the math, RIGHT?

As I mentioned yesterday as a low was occurring at 3pm
--I ALMOST BOT SOME CALLS but backed off

LOW @ 180 bars at 4pm was scheduled
but the ACTUAL turn seems to have hit at 3pm
As mentioned b4 -{ 3pm} - is a FREQUENT flier for TURNS on the hourly circuit

156 bars at 2pm was ALSO an important low- did anyone else get physically hungry after 2pm
does anyone else notice this other than me?
_________________________________________
OK< that was then, ~~ NOW what about TODAY

I previously mentioned we could see highs at 11am or 1pm & or 3pm today and that still works
more specifically Some of my projections are indicating 2 peaks today
I think that would mean 11am and then 3pm

Heres the projected FLOW TODAY {{ its a battle of the hourly verses the Bars}}
an 11am HOURLY HIGH is followed by 204bars @ 11;30 low
a 1pm HOURLY high is followed by a 228bar low @ 1:30
and a 3pm HOURLY high is followed by 258 bars at either 4pm OR open on WEd
just because 180 bars was truncated doesnt mean it will happen again @ 258 bars

Just in case you cant read between those lines
it means today is TRENDED UP
but it could be UP - LOWER then UP again
and today's close COULD ,but not necessarily take a hit at close, but even if it doesnt
IT WILL TOMORROW at the OPEN.

THE NEXT DOWN MOVE does LOOK like ALL DAY April 1st and APRIL 2nd till NOON

MY GAME PLAN IS THE SAME AS YESTERDAY
GET SHORT on rallies
anything near DOW 7725 will trigger put buying for ME

More Later
Jay

Monday, March 30, 2009

Rebound Threatens maybe - updated at 3:10pm

RIGHT NOW ITS 2;45pm
AND
My daily Activity index is starting to show some LIFE

You must remember that 3pm is one of the most common HOURLY turns

it was moving DOWN & up between 1oo & 166 all day till now
IT just moved UP to the 200 level which should be seen in stock price increases
within 30 to 60 minutes

If the close today is higher then the OPEN tomrrow will be lower
IF the close today is LOWER, then they should still open lower

MY game plan is to prepare to get short on the rally tomrrow
could be as early as 11am
or as late as 3pm
but I see 1pm as most the likely place

It really wont matter, if I miss the high by a few dollars, but its ALWAYS
nice to catch the highest and lowest values occasionally when trading

thats why I do whats called scale trading or buy options at various levels

More later
Jay

OK NOW ITS LATER

add 30 minutes and the close should be higher

Incredible
the activity index at 3:10 pm just took a DIVE after reaching 266
its NOW at 133
thats a 50% LOSS in one quick kick

SO< NOw we go back to watching the 180 bar cycle close out the day on tis lows

REMEMBER - this is JUST the beginning of this downturn
Jay

Sell off Continues

I was hoping for a typical open, but it looks like the PROPENSITY index is confirming a
low at the 11;30 to noon time slot at

126 bars @ 11;30
and
55% of the 13day cycle ALSO as 11;30

any rebound should also give way to a lower close and or lower open on Tuesday
AT 180 bars

The propensity index is also confirming a sharp rebound on Tuesday as does the power index
THEN - exactly what time tomrrow it will peak is only a guess BUT

using what we know about typical hourly cycle we can look at either 11am or 1pm or 3pm
or we could add short positions at each time slot, but I should have a better idea on that tomrrow

It would look like April fools day belongs to the bears club

Any time we get a downtrend like this off a 4th wave high,
we can expect huge but SHORT live rebounds which we should see on
March 31st and AGAIN on April 2nd

BUT DO KEEP this in MIND
the trend is DOWN thru at least April 8th for NOW
SOOO, Any intraday rallies will give way to more selling thru April8th
April 8th is also a midnite low tide

April 10th is closed for good Friday
so any rebound that lasts all day would have to happen on the 9th
and it could be quite a bullish day

More later
Jay

Variations On Today

As I mentioned - Charts edge is only a rough guide

Today we have the futures opening about 150 dow pts lower

The propensity index is indicating DOWN open , quick rebound, lower low, UP mid day and matching low close

More specifically - Typical times are
9:45 open low
10am rebound high
LOW at 11:30 @ 13 day cycle & 126bars
Midday rebound at 1pm and or 3pm
4pm lower close @ 180bars

the Propensity index shows tomrrow higher at least at the open - & the power index
agrees to that point, but shows a closing decline - but more on that later

GOLD now following stocks and once under 900, then 800 could be next week's target price
@ the 6 & 12 week cycle convergence next week on the 8th as a mid week date.

More later
Jay

Saturday, March 28, 2009

This WEEK"S GAME PLAN

I have no reason to doubt charts edge projections this week

His charts and predictions are not expensive and easy to read
sometimes they are quite good, and sometimes not so good, but worth having
regardless
________________________________________
JUST A NOTE OF CAUTION ABOUT USING CHARTS EDGE
ITS FOR GENERAL direction only -
do not use it to get exact SPX pricing
NOR
exact turn HOURS
________________________________________
I had previously inferred an UP Monday and still think it is correct
Monday we have the typical hours
11am
1pm
3pm
plus or minus 10 minutes either way for directional turns

Pivot LOWS
The 50%/13 day cycle hit at 2pm Friday March 27th - EXACTLY
NEXT
the 55% /13day cycle is due at 11:29 on March 31st
62%/13day cycle @ 10:43 on Tuesday
100% /13day cycle on April 7th at 10:30am

Monday's bars
126b@ 11;30am
150B @ 1;30pm
180b @ either of 4pm or open on Mar 31st

lets piece the Monday puzzle together
A bar cycle & 13 day cycle are hitting at 11;30 am, and that should setup a trading low
should you wish to buy into it, or to sell you shorts if you still held them over the wkend.
Then a 1pm and or 3 pm high should give out to a close that's off the high

Tuesday has a 13 day low at 10:43
and 204b @ 11;30
the pic above doesnt show those cycles, so do be cautious
However, a MID DAY high AGAIN at 1pm does appear to me very likely ,
and does seem like a very good place to buy puts which at this point in time look
good till April 3rd. & or April 7th

Now just remember these are FUTURE projections and will be updated
as the week progresses
My power index and propensity index are both shorter term measures

Natural energy is powerfully negative for April 3rd
and there is a Bradley date on April8th
along with a midnite low tide

As written b4, the first 8 days of April tend to look difficult for everyone
including stock prices

More Later
Jay

Friday, March 27, 2009

2pm- Update March 27th

As projected yesterday, getting short on rallies will pay off today
Make it so, said the Captain

As for me, I intend to close out my shorts between 3pm and 4pm today
and might just do it in steps

heres why
90 bars @ 3pm is ALSO the daily HOURLY cycle

Then there is 102bars at 4pm, but that's not a typical bar cycle low

BUT , heres the IF part.
IF 3pm Accentuates the down trend, then it should continue to 3:32pm
IF 3pm is a high point, as if there were such a thing today, but as a trader,
you know what i mean, THEN the same thing 3:32 - 3:42 could be the LOD
the defining moment is usually @ 3:05 to 3;10pm

However, IF 3pm is making a defined low, then I would have a tendency to bail out
Either way you play it , it will have been a beary good day

More later
Jay

March - April 2009

Today is a DOWN ---Up ----DOWN
but Mostly DOWN

Still expecting a rebound day on Monday,
but in the overall scope of direction - it wont mean much

Are they headed to MAJOR new lows in April, May or June ???
AND HOW LOW IS LOW ??

WEll :: after dropping from SPX 1550 to 667, the MAJOR DAMAGE has ALREADY been done
and the rebound to SPX813 makes some people feel better, but that's all it does
Nothing technical has changed.

LOOKS LIKE A typical 4th wave from March 9th to 26th.

BUT more PAIN is still ahead -
As much as the Obama administration has take the bull, or bear
as you will by the horns or teeth, the CYCLE still has more to play itself out.

______________________________________________
Ive mentioned this several times
The 60 year cycle is due to BOTTOM in Mid June
There is a Bradley date convergence in June14th and 18th

Once that is out of the way, you can expect the DOW Jones to make
it back to at least \$10K by March of 2010

BUT just like Year 2000, it may only be the EYE of the storm
we will cover that in more detail as we make progress in time

More later
Jay
ps; my mother in law thinks its time to buy GOLD
what does that tell you about the price of gold \
\
\
\

Thursday, March 26, 2009

When to get short

The 180 bar cycle APPEARS to have been elongated and hit with the hourly at
3pm and 192 bars
That was a bit unexpected but still made \$ on the put trade bot at noon

Today they look like the rally will continue
I will be shorting the DJX at each high today
Highs should attempt the magic # dow 8000
spx could get to that magic 845 we mentioned a few days ago

I would anticipate a high at Most Likely 11am on the NEW MOON could be the HOD

As written yesterday, the BETTER trades will be to the short side until April8th

Monday, March 30th still has potential to rally, but we might end up viewing it as
wave 2 rebound rather than wave 5 failure- but it matters not for our trades
which way it ends up getting counted

Power index & propensity index Continue to show a drop LATER today into tomrrow
TECHNICAL INTERNALS ISSUED a SELL on Monday March 23rd

Adv/decl -----Vol ---- Arms 5 ------trin 5---- trin 10
1943--------6114------76.6---------383-------72.5

One of the MOST important #s above the 10day TRIN
HUGE SELL signal well under 100.0
5 day trin under 400
5 day arms way under 100.0

More later
Jay

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Conflicting resources

I had been reporting dow 8000 as a place it could get to and stay for at least a day

BUT ive got evidence coming in NOW that is lending some doubt to that scenario
And EVEN if it does occur, it is SOOO short lived it wont matter

My power index is inferring another day like today
The Propensity index is a DITTO

Friday's potential looks WEAK as originally posted at least thru the Morning
SOO, any sell off Late on the 26th should continue into the 27th until noon

Heres MY game PLAN- make your own choices
The NEW moon at 11:07 am is considered to be very ENTHUSISTIC
Thus I WILL BE SHORTING any RALLY tomorrow
and I would expect a high at 2:15pm

I WILL say this about tomrrow,
its going to be very hard NOT to buy calls on any lower open
the dow should at least touch 8000, and thats only 250 pts from here

BUT it will be EASY to buy puts at 2pm
WHY, because even if Im wrong for a day -
Early April will be a big winner for those puts
so I can afford to hold them, but I dont think that will be neccesary

I really PREFER to be OUT of a position at days end
but shorting tomrrow at 2:15pm should bring rewards on Friday at
noon

More Later
Jay

Just as the Dr Ordered

I hope no one minds a little attempt at humor once in a while

BUT I wont tell Jokes - YUK

Today the HOURLY times were in CHARGE
Approximately
11am high
1pm collapse
3pm Low

I would venture to guess NOW that the OPEN tomorrow @ 204 bars would
setback to probably SPX 800

Still expecting the dow to make it at or near an 8000 close
tomorrow, or Friday into Monday
OR at least within the NEXT 3 days to give it a range

The rebound late today is from a Natural energy source at 5pm

A lower open for me is an OPP to buy calls
GE & BAC did well so far from the March 6th lows
C is struggling, but I think it should make it to \$5.00 ?
But the DJX now at 7750 - it wont take much to get to that 8000

More Later
Jay

BINGO

Got the EXPECTED rally on OPEn till 11;54
Why 11;54 ?/ Natural Energy HIGH + 178
Might be HOD dow + 190 @ 10:45 ~~ BUT there might be another attempt at 3;42pm

150 bars @ 11;30 was right on schedule Dow +140
180 bars @ 2pm might drag it down to a minor gain

204bars at CLOSE or OPEn on Thsday
the jury is still out on this forecast, but it wont matter in the long run

I sold my calls at 11;54 and bot some puts on the DJX
I will be selling those on close today or open tomrrow
and buying calls at the open low

Jaywiz blog is right on track so far this week

More Later
Jay

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

higher yet?? but NOT today

There are some indications the Higher OPen that I anticipated for this morning

MIGHT happen on Wed at open, but the balance of the day should sell off

leading to an OPENING low on the 26th

_________________________________

today, so far, hit the low notes and high notes on schedule
9:45 LOW & 10am high
BUT more important
10:45 am was the 60 bar cycle right on exact
THEN 1:30 pm a MINOR dip at 90bars

Its Now 1:40pm and counting
The DAILY Activity index is bouncing between 133 and 266 in a very narrow range

____________________

Hourly turned up at 11am & 1pm

OK now its 7 pm and the CLOSE hit a low
AT 126 bars

THAT LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN FOR A BIG RALLY
ON WEd AM

WEd looks LIKE UP / Down / Up & DOWN at the close like today.
WHY ? Because the CLOSE is at 204bars and should close DOWN

The Power index seems to be RIGHT ON THE LINE between
Wed & thsday, so it accentuates the potential for another sell off
or at least giving up its early hard earned gains

The 26th however, is calling for a run for dow 8000 is likely

The AM of 27th wants to take it away, but should give it back later in the day.

MORE LATER
Jay

March 24th update

At 9am the futures are leading the open to down about 100 dow points

So, my outlook for a higher open is delayed, and could occur later in the day

typical times would be either 11am or 1pm

But the CLOSE does look lower

Soo, today becomes
DOWN-- UP-- DOWN

More Later
Jay

Monday, March 23, 2009

Now What for March 24th ?

I am still expecting an overflow tomrrow AM
Might get to 846 or almost there

BOTH the propensity And the Power indexes
are leading the mkt higher at tomrrows open
&
Heres how HOURS work
We got at LOW on Friday at 2:45
ADD 8.6 hours and we get the HIGH at 9:45 to 10am tomrrow

THEN GET READY for a SELL OFF, but again NOTHING dramatic
I will be selling my calls and buying some limited puts at the open
given the above scenario works out as described.
____________________________________
TOMRROW is an 8day cycle HIGH
Wed is an 8 day cycle TURN
It means we settle back after a strong open and
continue to sell off on the 25th

________________________________________________
AS mentioned b4, the NEW moon in ARIES indicates a NEW START on the 26th
thus we get another BULLISH run on 26th which should complete on Monday March 31st.
SOO, the NEXT BUY OPP is the morning of the 26th since the new moon is not until 11:07am

If the Spx breaks above 847, the next level is 878

Remember what I wrote on March 3rd
The Dow will make a run to 8000 by months end
not far off now at 7776

MORE LATER
Jay

Sunday, March 22, 2009

March 23 & 24 for now

Monday March 23rd
Has the POWER index
&
Propensity index pointing towards a higher open & higher close

In between the Natural Energy transmitted by the Pluto square at1:32
and the 258 bar cycle at 1pm will have a tendency to pull things lower
at that time.

March 24th looks a little weak, but nothing Dramatic, and might even start out higher.

25th also looks sluggish , but once again nothing too steep

I really LIKE the potentail for the 26th and 27th ~~~ IF YOUR A BULL ~~~ " that is"

IF your chasing BEAR TRACKS this week , your NOT going to be happy

SPX --- once thru 816 resistence will have the next resistance at 830

Hourly remains in tack
11am
1pm
3pm
+ or - 15 min either way

258b to 270b@ 1pm to 1;30
30b@ 3:15pm

PS; these bar cycles DO NOT have to be LOWER LOWS
they are merely pivot points from which the mkt can move higher
right after each cycle
such UP moves usually trend higher for about 2hours
before getting sucked into the bar cycle vacuum tube

This is SIMPLY the markets way of BREATHING
or you can call it MKT RYTHM,
& if your a musician, you will understand

More later
Jay

Saturday, March 21, 2009

DATES of Importance

OK -- So far we have
an astro master and tide master

March 23rd means something
Sun 90 Pluto
Action between the inner most and outer most planet
that is If you still consider Pluto a planet

I like march 26th turns UP

March 26th NEW moon at IN ARIES
that means FRESH NEW START -
March 31st Contact of sun and Merc with Neptune
Neptune = PLANET of ILLUSION

SO, is IT ILLUSION when the market SINKS
or is it JUST reality setting in

You be the judge - whats your sentiment

Next is
April 8th = a BRADLEY DATE

last one was a high
Venus @ 0 degrees Aries in RETRO
Midnite LOW tide
9th is FULL MOON

We ALL know what happened on March
10th @ that full Moon effect
Will it come again- My vote is YES

Any one chasing big black crows from their back yards this wkend?
The Raven and black crows Clacking have always been used by literary types
to denote danger- I wonder how they got that idea??

MORE LATER
Jay

Friday, March 20, 2009

NO CRASH NEXT WEEK Mar 23 to 30

****THERE IS NO POTENTIAL to CRASH or MINI crash Next WEEK****

When I cranked out my last blog post, there were some typo errors
which I edited at the blog

GO BACK TO March 5th posting
TO see where we were then
Read the blog post on March 5th
WHICH Called for a LOW on the 6 and or 9th
and a HUGE rally of potential of 200 spx points from 667 THRU March 26th to 30th.
WERE NOT FINISHED WITH THAT YET

SO FAR we got 139 pts to MARCH 18, and there is possible a little higher still.
MMath did NOT break above 816 level, and if it does, could get to 847,
BUT I DOUBT it will do that

The Low today at close spx = 768 and MMath support is at 754
Monday has the SUN 90 Pluto at 1:32 and coincides with 258bars @12;45 + 12 bar variance

From there, we could see a couple days of lackluster activity
however the 26th to 30th as mentioned on MARCH 5th
HAS the potential to blow it out to highest resistance at spx 816 to 847

or somewhere IN BETWEEN those 2 levels

SO---as written b4

THE BEST TIME TO GET SHORT WILL BE on MARCH 30th at close

ThE BEST TIME to GET LONG will be APRIL8th at close
___________________________________

and the time period between march 30 and April8th DOES offer the potential to
MAKE NEW SPX lows to 634 level or even as low as 604
{{Now}} IF you want to call that a crash, be my guest,
but i didnt write it---You assumed it -that means it your falt {{GGG}}
I dont want to take the blame because I dont get any credit either???
spx 816 to 634 or 604 = about 200 pts = 1600 dow pts
______________________________________

GOLD has followed stocks from ITS Feb 34th HIGH to a LOW on March 10th low at
896 to a HIGH on March 18th at 962

with stocks at the same exact time.
SOOOO , theres NO reason to expect gold to do anything other than
PLUNGE during the same time period

_________________________________________
Cycle events today
OPEN high till 9:45
150 bars @ 10:15 am , a LOW
3pm low was between 204 & 210 bars

Hourly
11am turned lower
1;15 Turned lower
3pm _turned UP to 3;32
____________________
and Of course Monday
as written above should make a low at 1;32 time slot

More Later
Jay
ps ; I love the colors @ the NEW comcast email

UPDATE

THE Chart above shows the following wave structure

March 2009
Low hit on the March 6th= Wve 5 of downtrend from Feb 23rd
March 9 wv 1 & 2
March 10th started wv 3

March 17th @ 9:40 wave 4
March 18th @ 2;52pm =Fed rally = wv 5

coincidental with high tide on 18th

More Perspective

258 Bars on the 18th at 10;30 was the LOD
high spx 805 at 2;52pm after Fed announcement

19th

90bars at 11:45 was the LOD
126b @3pm provided another low

In between

11:00 am turns lower to 11:45 @ 126b

1:00 pm turns higher to the 2;05 high

3:00 pm low turns higher to 3:32
___________________________________________
OK now, that brings us to today
March 20th

REMEMBER
__ all BAR cycle are LOWS
hourly cycles at 11-1- & 3 are biased highs,
but can be either
and usually provide strong turning points
~~ good data for day traders

TODAY
Up bias first half day
down bias second half

Equinox
Midnite low tide
________________________________________
Next is Monday March 23rd
DOWN bias till 1;32pm
why?? you ask - lets explore

Sun 90 Pluto @ 1:32pm
258 bars @ 12:30pm,
BUT could run over to 270 bars due to pluto square

Bias for the rest of the week is somewhat positive
AND more so on the 27th to 30th

WHY ?, you ask - geesh, you sure are needy {{gg}}

27th Sun 0 Venus
28th Merc 0 venus

30th Sun 0 merc
Merc 45 Nptne

sun 45 Nptne

The ABOVE aspects are quite positive for stock prices

BUT after the 30th the BIZ atmosphere turns SOUR till APRIL8th

____________________________________________
I dont know if anyone notices this or has observed people and
how they behave toward you or others when
the mkt is UP
verses days when it is DOWN
BUT
I think you will notice that
DOWN days= GOOD BEHAVIOR
UP days = Poor behavior
If you haven't recorded this b4, maybe you should start now

Scroll down to previous posts to find out
when it will best to be a BULL
and best to be a BEAR
_______________________________________
More Later
Jay

Thursday, March 19, 2009

March 18

Activity index starts out at 200, and then drops to 66 shortly thereafter
Propensity index continues to decline into tomorrows open
high of 3022 to as low as 2990

__________________________________________
GOLD is tracking stocks AGAIN as the DOLLAR takes a hit off 2.70 yesterday

GOld hitting 950 as projected
Next stop 850

Look back at Last years high
both had 95% bullish sentiment at the \$1000 level
If you count the 2009 high as a "B" wave, then the next level has to take out the 2008 lows
If you count it as a failed 5th , the next low could be less than \$600
\$600 is considered the APEX of the triangle
________________________________________
Armstrong seems to think that gold would make a high at the suspected June 2009 lows
thats Ok imo, if it continues to track stocks

Armstrong thinks there is a potential for Dow to drop to 4000 in June

Of course we ALL KNOW such EXTREMES will be VERY short lived
the rally that follows, as I HAVE WRITTEN several times
should carry the DOW to possibly 10K by March of 2010
10 year high to high from March 2000 at 14,000

More Later
Jay

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

SELL OFF delay

FED induced rally today stalls decline a day
needed one more higher high

BUT any loss tomrrow will most likely be made up somewhat on Friday

What remains constant is the SELL Signal issued by my internal technical data
as of Friday March 13th
Sometimes there are delays between the INTERNAL high and the PRICE high
before it has any REAL effect on price levels & trading

THE NEXT BEST BET if your a BEAR
WAIT TILL
March 30th a possible lower high or failed attempt to make higher highs

The NEXT best BET if your a BULL
WAIT TILL
APRIL 8th which might set a lower low at spx 635 level
& Apr 14th could be a secondary retest
similar to March 9th & 10th but with a delay

More Later
Jay

Jaywiz Index

For those who have been with me for while

JAYWIZ INDEX = .12

Havent seen a reading that low in a couple months

Futures at 9 AM are picking up steam lower spx now red 8.30, and dow off 80

once the mkt opens it should be non stop down all day

Yesterday also got a .37 ARMS daily index
as you know, my proprietary technical data gave a sell on Friday
But as we all can see, there was one more high to go
typically the OVERBOT ratios appear on the 3rd wave high which leaves the5th wave to
rally on AIR

Power index is still showing a low on 18th , but that can be off by one day with such tight margins
Propensity index has dropped from 3025 to 3005
Activity index has dropped from 200 to 100
Flux is non existent today , but did have positive activity yesterday
dynamic index has been on the DECLINE for 3 days
VHF hit a high or 12 ealier

NOTE ; ALL THE ABOVE ARE SAYING the mkt is headed DOWN

NOw the OTHER question is
HOW FAR and HOW LONG?

I gave some levels yesterday based on Fibo relationships of a high of 7400 on the dow
7037
6925
6800
are those levels in plain numbers

WHen ?
I also posted a fibo time sequence that porjects a low on Thursday at 2pm

As far as GOLD goes, it should now rebound to about 950
but once there its a great short to 850 by months end

More Later
Jay

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

ARMS index

ARMS index today = .37
KISS OF DEATH

Sure looks like wave 2 morphed into wave 5
higher high at 7400
that was the goal all along

My propensity index for tomrrow shows selling
the Power index shows potential for big hit

how low is low??????
7400 - 6650 = 950
38% = 370
50% = 475
62% = 600
Should be some part of 2days
we are 7 days UP from the low =45.5 hrs
38.2% x 45.5 hours = 17.38 hrs = 2.67 days
thats thursday at 2pm where there is also a 120bar cycle
Jay

Bars & Hours

Yesterday's bars March 16
120 bars at 11am = minor dip off the 10:30 high
150b @ 1;30= minor dip
HOD at 1:45 just shy of the Merc 30 Venus @2pm
Slide to lower close from there
that was wv 'a' down
_____________________________________
Ok, that was then, THis is NOW

Tuesday at 11;30 as i write this
wv 'b' flat, but wave 'c' should hit before the close
Open high at 9:35 Dow + 20
9:50 low at 180 bars Dow - 36
10am high
HOURLY @ 11am higher - could be HOD ??

Next bars
204b@ noon in 30 minute
228b @ 2pm

Moon 60 Jupiter at 12;38 - might end up as HOD??
Hourly same as always
1pm
3pm
and minor variations of such
_________________________________

18th WEd is MOST IMPORTANT and could be a Dow 400 point down day
Power index shows today as a low
258bars @ 10;30
30 bars at 1pm
60 bars at 3;30
its possible we get 329 bars at 3;55, but Im not counting on it.
Its rare, but it does happen- we did NOT however get 126 bars on Monday at 11;30
126 + 204 = 329/330

Hourly
hit a high today at 11am
next high is 1pm
then 3pm
_____________________________________________-

19th Thursday - power index shows an UP day

100% of 13 day cycle at 10:30 - 11am
This is one reason why the 18th might truncate this cycle and close out at 4pm

90 bars @ 11;30
120 bars @ 2pm
hourly as usual
____________________________________

power index shows an up day
Astro read indicates a good money day

___________________________________
More later
Jay

Monday, March 16, 2009

March 16 to 20 & more

cycles are on schedule

9:45 open high

11am hourly cycle =a dip @ 120 bars

11;30 high

11;55- 12;05= 13 day cycle low

1pm hourly high

1;30 minor ip @ 150bars

2pm AStro high JUST GOT HIT FOR HOD at 1:50pm

ITS NOW 1:50 as I write this

next cycle is 3pm Hourly

nothing after that

maybe 3;32 , IF 3pm hits another lower high

NOTE, 3;32 did rebound but only about 2 spx pts

power index with gap lower open on 17th

17th- Astro says \$\$ CRUNCH & Crisis brewing

18th - astro reads - sobering dissapointment

19th says hold off & re evaluate - stagnation , but look for bargains

Astro readings for 19th are indicating a FLAT day, but the POWER index says the low is the 18th

The KEY to unraveling that discrepancy will be the 18th -

IF FLAT to Up, then the 19th will most likely be lower as shown by Charts Edge

___________________________________________

still thinking 5 -3 -5
5 UP -we just finished on march 16th at 1;45 pm
3 DOWN -should finish on Mar23rd
5 more UP to March 30th - SUN 0 Merc at 10:30am
Then the NEXT LEG LOWER to April 8th

NOTE

the FULL MOON IS April 9th
JUST LIKE the MARCH 9th LOW occurred on the DAY bEFORE THE FULL MOON + the astro after is quite positive.

ALSo
the SELL OFF NOW to the 18th and or 19th can be at least 80 spx points from the high
775- 80= 695 = the B wave low
IF NOT ON March 18th, then next best bet is 19th, THEN the 23rd.

C wave high on March 30 can make it to 800
667 + 120= 787 + 16 = 803 MAXIMUM

MORE LATER
Jay

Morning OPEN

Notice the OBV -- MACD- & oscilator are not supoorting any further rally at the open

Jay

ONE DAY OFF

Just a quick note to say I might be one day off
ITs my tendency to get short sooner and long late

My Propensity index popped UP from 3006 to 3020 as of today's close
making the 16th as the TURN date via Bradley's 15th turn date
Using 8 pts as an increment we might se the spx + 8 to 765

Astro would indicate the 18th for a low this week, with a bounce on the 20th
then Monday with the Sun 90 Pluto mid day would be the draw down to a
short term low - same as Merlin

I mentioned that March 25th might be a good place to get short.
Again that might be a couple days early as the 31st as previously mentioned
might be a better short- April 8 is next Bradley date

Activity index @9:30am does NOT support a continuation of the opening rally
It moved up to 30 overnight, but within 30 minutes of open it drops to 10

Exhuberation on CBNC with higher futures will probably end at 9:45 and or 10am

Using 40 pt spx moves from the closing of 676 , adding 80 pts takes us to exactly
Friday's close at 757

the next low could be any multiple of the 40 pt rule of thumb
757 - 80= 676 -40= {{ 636}} - 40 = {{ 596}}

both of those lower levels have been previously mentioned by more than one tech

More later
Jay

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Next Week

WOWOWOW

we are getting forecasts from SPX 800 to 680 for the coming week

DA Chief --- Don Wolunchuck the PERENIAL BULL
is SNEORTING as of Friday - its usually just a SNORT
so i guess the SNEORT is extra bullish
BUT

Many on his site know that SNORTS means its time to watch out below !!

AND
HIS yawns are A BULL CALL
I will start to report these more frequently
______________________________________________________
Coy Morphew, on Crystal ball site reports his TA- PATHER daily.
It identifies mkt direction for the next day, and he has been quite accurate
He writes that his indicator is calling for an unusually big down day Monday.

ITS very possible we get a SEVERE sell off at open,
then strong recovery during the after noon until 2pm where there is a
soft aspect of Merc & venus
THEN the real decline sets in

My propensity index seems to be indicating such an event
& In that same regard so does astro which has a soft aspect at 2pm
after which there is NO REPRIEVE

THEN the POWER index shows DOWN all the way to WEd CLOSE
an unusual bar count of 329 occurs at 3:55pm on the 18th
the Power index also shows strong UP DAYS on the 19th & 20th

Im Watching 126 bars if hit at 11;30 Monday, then it sets up a
good chance for 329 as above

Astro also indicates DOWN thru late on 18th
19th calls for Time to pick up fresh BARGAINS
& 20th reads good for \$ affairs

More Later
Jay

Saturday, March 14, 2009

Yes, they got there

That might have been the HIGH of this move

Heres a synopsis of the next 3 weeks
of course it NEVER works out exactly the way it gets projected
but we'll give it a good shot

Counting 5 waves last week from Friday's LOW at spx 666.67 to spx 758 friday at 10am,& 3;30pm
Friday looked like a 4th wave till 12:30pm, and final 5th wave high at 3;30pm
I really abhor saying FINAL, but this time I think its real

I had thought we would see another runup to another
higher high by the 23rd to 25th but thats sort of IFFY.

OK !! -- that was then --THIS IS NOW
best to look backward from April 3rd where the NEXT IMPORTANT LOW should occur
March 25th seems to offer the BEST time to get short to take advantage of that down move.
but do watch out for a moderate dip & rebound to the 31st, then the PLUNGE to a
possible new low- Ill get more specific later.

A Wed LOW is expected this week
moderate rebound on 19th and 20th
23rd to 25th Are called for MIXED at best
_______________________________________________________-
The problem with making forecasts more than one day at a time is they get lost in the shuffle
for example:
the week of the March 2nd, I projected a big rally from the 10th and we were one day early
by those projections , And the SAME thing can happen in the next 2 weeks
______________________________
So do remind me of these forecasts next week
thanks

More later
Jay

Friday, March 13, 2009

Are we WHERE yet?

Thats a terrific or horrific question that my kids use to ask after starting a trip to grandma's house
that was a 2 hour trip, so you can imagine the frustration after only 30 minutes into the trip

So where are we now?

At Major resistance now and even next week ??
SPX 752 , the Nov 20th closing low
but the dow is far from 7550 and another resistance point at 7190

My PROPRIETARY internals gave a SELL yesterday
see below

Heres the numbers
date--- A/D --Vol ratio------arms------a/d ave----vol ave---- 5trin----10trin
Mar6---314-------261-------- 164.2------62.8--------582-------821------1386
Mar12---2648----4965-------{62.4}-------529.2------993----{312}-----1169

The 5 day ARMS & 5 day TRIn in bold above
one is an aver, the other is a cumulative
at 62.4 & 312 those values are BOTH GROSSLY {{{ OVERBOT}}} as SHORT term indicators

Also on March 6th, the first 2 numbers @ 314 & 261 are
well under the 400 threshold for a buy signal
*************
NOW look at Mar12 numbers 2648 & 4965--
those are the highest values for those 2 indexes in 2 years
And whats more remarkable is the brevity of time of 3 days

Futures are meekly pointing higher this am for one more bump up against resistance
at 10;15am where there is a moon 120 Neptune
AhHHH yes
Neptune, planet of ILLUSION with the Moon a lower vibration of Neptune

Some have projected the spx to 770 as near term resistance
If that is the goal, then it would suggest option expiration for that level
However, something else stands in the way mid week

Heres my simple math model
750-670= 80 pt gain
770-80 = spx 690 - March 18th target
puts the dow at 6700

In Elliott terms, this is an A-B-C or 3 legged formation
"A" is today at 10am
"B" is March 18
"C" is Mar 20

The NEXT BIGGER LEG lower is on schedule for April3rd
maybe a new low ??

More Later
Jay

Thursday, March 12, 2009

60 year chart

I made this bigger, but it got a little blurry

NOTICE

the sharp Decline in FEB is met with a quick rebound
AND RETEST LOWER within 10 days

Such action TODAY would equal
March 6th LOW
March 12th High
March 18th LOW

Its 2;45 and the 3pm high is getting near
looks like it wants to make it to 752 spx which would
be about 50 dow points higher to 7199

Ill mention it again
TODAY is an 8 day HIGH & Bradley date
TOMRROW is an 8 day TURN

3pm and 3:45 are typical times to look for
GLD same now as equities

March 12th reading calls for excitment
March 13 calls for a ROUTINE day & Accept a change

Jay

NO sell off today

As you can see, no sell off has occurred today and its now 11am

Today March 12th is a BRADLEY date, we can only look at it as a high
The 15th , SUNDAY is the next Bradely date and should offer a strong TURN lower.
The NEXT main Bradley date is April 8th which should be a low

the LOWER open TODAY @ the typical time of 9:45 might have been the LOd
11am IS a typical HOURLY HIGH

A SELL SIGNAL is building in the internals
5 day arms = 75.3 = a sell under 100.0
5 day trin = 379 = a sell under 400
vol ratio = 619.8
All of those #s are on a sell, but Im sure in the next 2 days,
I will see more of the technical internals fall into place.

Today ALSO marks an 8 day which is now looking like it will be a high
that means tomrrow should mark the 8 day TURN

__________________________________________________________
Natural energy pattern shows tomrrow as a high
which ive been saying for a few days now

the NEXT BIG date of importance is Wed March 18th
nothing to do with the FED meeting, just coincidence
and it is leaning toward a LOW

SO, IF today marks the "A" wave HIGh, then March 18th should mark the "B" wave LOW
How LOW as we wrote b4?
If they close the dow at or near 7100, that would get the spx to 739/740

From there they could drop next week back to 6600 area & spx to 670

Since we did not sell off today, then I suspect the next, as indicated by Natural energy
rally from the 19th to the 25th will get above 740 level.

More Later
Jay

ELLIOTT Wave

A wave v or low was made on Friday at 6470

then wave 1 & 2 formed at closing of Monday March 9th

thats why wave 3 erupted as it did in typical wave 3 fashion
and it would appear that wave reached a peak as minor wave "A" at 7015 dow, spx 732
at 10am yesterday morning

What followed does look like wave 'a' and maybe even wv 'b' at the close

propensity index drops today from the late high yesterday from 3012 down to 3001
the Bar cycle hit a low yesterday at 2:30 dow off 80
which means today should also hit a low at 2:30 @ 258 bars
this would count as wv 'c' -"B"
then get ready for wave 'c' - "C" to a high on Friday, spx to 740 area

Futures were much lower early at about 5am, rebounded some, but are now at 9;15 trailing off again
How low is low? Spx 700 to 690 would be a fibo relationship to look for with dow about 6800-6750

More Later
Jay

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Sell off after open

My propensity index is showing a higher open as the futures are already pointing that way
Power index did NOT show rally yesterday, and thus is somewhat cloudy for today, but does
seem to indicate a lower open tomrrow

A higher open should give way to selling later in the day with a lower open on the 12th

Should still be a good opp for another rally on the 13th
I will be buying calls sometime tomrrow and selling them at the close on Friday

Interesting phenomena
Bradley on 12th should offer a low
Bradley on 15th should offer a high = a Sunday
THAT only leaves the 13th in between

18th is setup on a natural energy chart for a low
How low? Cant say at all, but there's always a potential to retest 670

From the 18th to the 23rd and or 26th, they should RUN IT UP AGAIN

Major resistance, of course is SPX 754, the Nov 20th close and or 744, the intraday low of Nov21
_______________________________________________

GOLD did drop from 1000 on Feb 23rd to 900 on March 10th , and could rebound some into the 18th where equities are due to make theri next important low. IF gold does rebound to the 18th, then I will be looking to buy puts on the GLD

More Later
Jay

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Antother Pic

After that FACT we can see it very clearly

BUT next is a take away on March 11th
b4 Friday the 13th rally

More Later
Jay

Next Chart

Note the direction of the OBV and other technicals
OBV not very supportive of the rally

Heres some more daily tech data
Monday's arms was a .48 and today was a.49 but the Adv/Decl & Vol raw numbers were vastly
different even though they had nearly the same ratio

Jaywiz index
Monday = .12 is bearish and today .80 is bullish
they seem confused and should be opposite

Today's SPDR is an 82
CBOE = .73 and yesterday was .74, both bearish
spx = 1.01 and yesrday was 1.16 , neutral
OEX = .75 and yesterday was .59 - both bearish

GOLD continues to drop, I should have stuck with it
must will short the next rally, HMMm if I catch it right

Even the Power index did not give me an indication of the kind of day we had
and the propensity index left me confused

the only thing that should have tipped me off was the FULL MOON

Anyway we got some makin up to do

More Later
Jay

Conracting Triangle

Notice the triangle and the dropo afterward
Then look at the OBV and other indicators , MACD & oscillator
All took the same dive

More Later

RE Group & get back on track

Cant get away from those FULL MOONS
they seem to catch me at the wrong end of things
Got some splainin to do Lucy

It would appear that 666.67 on march 5th was the near term LOW

a contracting triangle formed from Nov 21st to Feb 6th and the
outcome was the drop to March 6th - i'll see if I can put up a chart of it

spx lost 208 pts from Jan 28 at 874 to March 9th in 21 trade days, but you already knew that

Any rebound NOW would fit in with FIBO, & today was a gain of 21%
the NEXT high should = 34% = 70 pts and get back up near the 790 level
that could come on the 12th & 13th- mostly the 13th.

Today was typical of an "A" wave
thus we should see the next wave "B" tomrrow and maybe part of the 12th
BUT the 13th can and probably will match or exceed today's performance
IVE BEEN warning about a rally for a week now, but I got caught short by one day

Expect the 11th to take away in the "B" wave at least 150 DOW to maybe 200 pts intraday
that would equate to about 20 spx just under 700 as support

The NEXT high is STILL Friday March 13th,
BTW, how often do we get 2 months in a row with a Friday 13th

From there, the NEXT possible LOW is setup for the 18th

remembere i wrote to expect a 2000 pt dow rally off the LOW
which is now set at 6550 + 2000 = 8550
and that could be seen by options expiration or as part
of a rally to the 23rd at that level.

More Later
Jay

Monday, March 09, 2009

WHERE ARE WE ?

Last weeks high was on March 4th at 3:30pm spx was at 724

the first low hit at 3;30 on March 5th, 6.5 hrs later then a 145pt rally which last about 2 hrs

the NEXT low was on the 6th at , yup, you got it -3;30pm at 666.79
whats 666 mean? you ask / NOTHING

then a 70 pt sell off at today's open and a 70 pt high = yup, 140pts
3;30 low got a 10:15high
what GREAT symmetry!!

WAVE5 = END times things SPEED UP - and we are getting CLOSE to this wave bottom

March 10th at 3;30 is , YUP, you got it - 26 hours
its also 44 trade days from Jan 6th high
90 oct27th-- low
110Oct1st-- high
250 March 10th 2008 Low
Low tide at 3:02pm
50%/ 13 day cycle low at 2pm + overage
120bars cycle @ 3;30pm
Full moon at 9:39pm

From there, just as the pic shows a HUGE rally lasting till at least the 23rd and or 26th

More later
Jay

Sunday, March 08, 2009

One Pic is Worth 1000 WORDS

Heres an ELLIOTT wave PIC from ibo, one of our friends and FOLLOWERS

DO I need to WRITE anything ELSE ??

Ive written in _____ and here it is above in the FLESH

SUNDAY News show has 2 Senators exclaiming the benefits of NATIONALIZING some banks

If that's the atmosphere that's being generated, then LOOK OUT BELOW
_______________________________________________
SUNDAY
Mars 0 Neptune
BUT there may NOT be anything REALISTIC about it

SUN 180 Saturn
Need a PLAN to handle demands
no time for stress relief
______________________________________________

Monday early am we have a moon 180 Neptune & Mars within an hour of each other
moon 180 Merc Logic is lost to emotions

and theres lots more
_________________________

Ive already pointed out the technical and pc ratios associated with Friday's close
and they are all negative

Power index reads a 300 for Monday & Tuesday - scale is out on the right
Propensity index which was at 3014 on Friday has now DROPPED to 2998
both are saying LOWER on Monday
___________________________________________________

NOTE on GOLD
I wrote on FEB 23rd when it hit 1000 for second time in history
that the NEXT MOVE would be a drop to 900 on or b4 March 6th

I Made \$\$ on the GLD puts, but got out early- no regrets

AND IT FELL TO 936 on close Thursday March 5th
IS there FURTHER to go down
YOU BET THERE IS !!!!!

best estimates from Ellioters and fibo = about 600 - 650
lost to make on the way down

WHEN ?, you want to know, i dont know why you think it would happen
in a heartbeat? IT TAKES TIME
My best guess would be 9 months from now

When is the NEXT SELL opp for gold??
IMO, Tuesday March 10th
in other words, gold should hold its own and might even rally more to
the 950 level, but should make it to 850 by months end

They will SELL gold to BUY Stocks
as fast as one goes down, the other will go up
THEY are CURRENTLY in an INVERSE RELATIONSHIP to each other
_______________________________________
I Notice bonds are also getting creamed

More Later
Jay

Saturday, March 07, 2009

March 10th

WHY the rally at 3;30 both days?

THE LOD on thursday was at 3;30
why ?
simple
150bars

the LOD on friday was at 3;30
Why?Simple
228 bars

Monday has 258 bars at noon
but that wont be the LOD

Tuesday has 13 day cyle at 2pm with a one hour range
Full moon after hours effect all day
90 bars @1pm
but
Most important is
126 bars at 4pm

______________________________________
that was then and this is NOW

A Sell signal was generated on FEB 24
A/D -- Vol --- 5day Arms --- a/d ave -- vol ave -- 5 trin-- 10 trin--
729-----1493------78.4--------145------298-------392-------997
NOW on March 6
646-----516------149----------129------103-------747------1268

The numbers for March 6th are NO WHERE near oversold
5day arms should be near or above 200.1
5 day trin should be above 1000
10day trin should be above 2000

the first 2 numbers should be well below 400 each

Friday's PC ratios on a SELL
Jaywiz index on Thurs =26
Fri = 32
Spdr = 87
CBOE pc = 87
OEX = .49
SPX 500 = 1.06

there were 827 new lows
on Oct 10th, there wre 2591 new lows

WE need to have 2 days with arms over 3.50
_________________________________

More Later
Jay

Friday, March 06, 2009

Bot short

Got in at noon and again at 1pm at minor rebounds

would like to see one more rebound today
its now almost 2pm, and they might run it up at 3pm to break even
Even if no rebound I will most likely add more puts at 3pm

204bars cycle HIT at 1;45pm = a low
228 bars @ 3;45 and or close = DOWN CLOSE
and 258 bars hits Monday at NOON:15

WOW, right after 2pm, it started to move UP
thanks Ibo, you hit that one exactly
we'll see how far it gets

another posted dow 6000 for next week
others are holding their collective breadth- waiting for the other shoe to fall
NO BUY SIGNALS have been generated by the internal ADV/ DECl & vol ratios
______________________________________________-
The MEDIA is at it again
some commentators are attempting to blame Pres Obama for the entire decline

I can hear it all NOW on Tuesday - it will be IMPEACHMENT talk for sure
i heard Cramer the other nite joined in the fray also
Wait till we hear from that radio guy, you know WHATS HIS NAME ?? {g}
Damn fools

ok, its almost 2pm and they seem to want to come back,
BUT the ACTIVITY index is FLAT for the next 60 minutes
OBV is also FLAT
Macd is FLAT

More later
Jay

I know theres more of you out there who would like to log in,
and I would really like to know your there
You dont need a google id, there are 3 other choices such as yahoo
thanks to those of you have done so

SO FAR today

WE got the BURST open as expected but a lower low at 11am confirms

that this is just a nano contra wave 2 or 4

After 9:45 they slid lower till 11;30 @ 180 bars //down 44 pts dow

We should see another UPLEG or burst later today

could be 1pm or 3 pm, but struggling for sure

I did NOT SELL at open thus Im stuck waiting for the next up leg as indicated

We might not get it, but either way I will be 120% short as of the close

more later
Jay

March 6th

As I had expect the futures and the early futures market are responding
positively to the employment data suggesting a positive open

NOW UP 10 on spoos at 9am

It really wasn't the futures at all and IF there was no such report, the mkt would have found another reason to open higher

MY proprietary and ARMS Tech internal data shows

Activity index is showing a rally early, but drops off after 10am
this one updates hourly so will keep you in touch if important

Propensity index shows upmove from 2998 to 3013 as late as 3pm
but then drops off which could mean a less then stellar close

power index is mixed & shows a potential high mid day then lower at close

My game plan today will be to start buying puts on each rally
most likely at the hourly time points
and YOU know what they are

11am ---- 1pm & 3pm

1pm would appear most likely HOD

Bar cycles today
180@ 11:30 am
204@ 1:30 pm
228@ 3;30 pm

__________________________
yesterday perspectives
open down @ 9:35 = 1hr & 5 minutes after the 3:32pm HOD of Wed

1hr & 5 min later the 10;38 high gave way to the slide to 1pm the 120 bar cycle low

1;15 hourly high gave way to 150bar@ 3;30 cycle low

_________________________________________________

I am still expecting a MORE severe sell off on Monday & Tuesday

Typical Monday & Tuesday lows in a bear mkt

Tuesdays low tide is at 3:02pm
50% of 13 day cycle at 2pm with an hour range till 3pm
full moon not till 9pm
11 tr days from FEb 23 low
90 tr days from oct 27th
110 Oct 1st high
250 March 10th, 2008
44 tr days from Jan 6th
_________________________________________
Astro readings for March 10th & 11th
Expect the unexpected
Unwelcome news
Shake ups
BUT -- GET READY FOR CHANGE

March 11th ** look for GOOD NEWS
March 12th ** cooperation
March 13 ** Delightful day

I Know, you still want to know
HOW LOW IS LOW ??
best as i can figure
spx 635 is out there as a strong possible
and if that gets hit on Monday, then 604 was been out there for a while now

More Later
Jay

__._,_.___

Thursday, March 05, 2009

HOW HIGh and WHEN

AFTER March 10th

we could see the SPX rally as high as 210 pts by the end of March

DO the Math
LOSS of 900 pts

X 23.6 % = 212 pts

680 + 212 = 892

More Later
Jay

March 4th = tough day
could turn after 3;30

What you see above for March 4th NEVER happened
in fact it was just the opposite

HOWEVER, IT is on schedule for today

NOTE of interest
WATCH the NEW LOWs verses highs, of which there are NONE
ON October 10th we had 2591 new lows
March 3rd had 705 new lows

that shows basically a weakening of the decline
Typical in a 5th wave position

YES, there is ONE MORE LOW to go on March 9th and or 10th

SO, if you dont buy in today, make sure you do so on March 10th

MY GAME PLAN
SHORT the CLOSE on Friday March 6th

How low is low? Today or Monday
TODAY - Europe is down 3%
Oil is DOWN 35

SPX futures are down near 18pts @ 690
Murrey Math level is at 692, the intraday low of March 3rd
The next MM level is at 661 with 8 pts segments in between
692- 8 = 684
684- 8 =676
676-8= 668
etc

THE LOW today should occur fairly EARLY as mentioned b4

90 bars @ 10:30 & 102b @ 11:30
23.6% of the 13 day cycle @ 10:56am
moon 180 pluto @ 11;17

SO, we will look for the LOD this morning between 10:30 and 11;17

the HOD yesterday was at 3:32pm
and the ISM # comes out at 10am
IMO, and I could be wrong, but an acceleration should occur at 10;05am taking it lower till
11 to 11;17 am

More later
Jay

Wednesday, March 04, 2009

Regardless

Its NOW 3;45pm
IM adding more puts at close today

Tomorrow could be a WHIP saw day

Still got a LOW at 11am to 11;30

and after settling down till about 1pm to 1;30pm

the close should be significantly higher

Friday could do reverse UP till 11am then drop
some conflicts appear which may be clearer tomrrow

BUT either way as far as Friday is concerned
I REPEAT
I will be SHORT at the close

More Later
Jay

March 4th & 5th

It does looke like 258 bars close out yesterday THUS the Futures are
showing a rally at open to the tune of maybe 50 dow pts, Maybe not even

GUESS WHAT
Im going to ADD more PUTS and SELL the OPEN RALLY

Todays bar cycles
30B @ noon
60b @ 2;30

Hourly
9:45
11am
1pm
3pm

_______________________________________________
Tomrrow MORNING is more important
90b @ 10:30
23.6/13day @ 11am
moon 180 pluto @ 11:17

Hourly = same as above and every day with minor variations

APD report worse than expected
futures have been dropping since early this am when it was considerably higher

Yesterday's late HIGH was EXACTLY at 3pm
258 bars at close dragged it down at close
adding 1 hr & 5 minutes = 9:35 this am

Not much time to act, but it will do
________________________________________

What am I going to do about the pending rally after 11am on 5th and continuation on 6th?
Thats a good question?
Not sure - i dont expect too much of a rally maybe 200 to 300 pts at most.
but there is ONE Thing I am sure of
I WILL BE SHORT at the CLOSE on Friday

More Later
Jay

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

On Track

Got the 9:45am HIGH
secondary high at 10:35- 10:45 where ASTRO > Venus 30 Uranus

then the 11;30 low at 204 bars was the next magnetic low - 59pts dow
was actually extended to 210 bars at noon

Next HIGH TURN is now due at 12;43 pm on a SUN 30 Jupiter

from there, as previously written
a low on the OPEN tomrrow at 9:45 to 10am

Activity index turned UP at 11;30 and there is a 30 minute delay
propensity index on same track

Some have indicated spx 680, and I cant argue with that
Ravi's matrix indicates a low of 635 spx

IMO<>
March 9 & 10th

Jay

March 3rd,to 6th - 2009

Adjusting 180 bars to the CLOSE of yesterday thus the LOD at close
rather than this am at 9:45

that moves daily timing up a little
204b is now @ 11;30am
228b @ 2:30
Hourly still at 11am - 1pm & 3pm

but more important is 258bars which is NOW at either close today or open tomrrow
Since 180 b hit at close, This would suggest that 258 b hit at OPEN wed to 9:45
plus there is a 14.6% of 13 day at 9:50am helping to pull it down.

this scenario is corroborated by the Power & Propensity index's rising and falling as above.
Any rally that fails today after 1pm will most likely duplicate that effort tomrrow
Feb 4th and FAIL again thus LEADING us the a deeper LOW than Monday's close
at 11am on the 5th

Wed has 30b @ 11am and 60@ 3;45pm
thus we could see rally attempts on 4th @ 1pm, and or 3pm with a failure at close
leading to a lower low on the
5th
5th at 11am > 23.6%/13 day at 11am
5th >hourly at 11am
5th >moon 180 Pluto at 11:17 am

However, the LOW of the 5th @ 11am appears to be INTRADAY below spx 700
Then rebounding to a more meaningful rally from there into the 6th at close

The ENTIRE wave structure from now till close on Friday appears as a CONTRA TREND
rally probably labeled as a micro wave 4, giving way to micro 5 next week as described below.

Setting up another Friday GREAT SHORTING opp
A higher close this Friday is very deceptive as most Elliott tech analysts
will deem the decline OVER
and you already know that they are usually short sited and tend to call
wave completion somewhat early- ive mentioned it several times
and continue to prove it often.

MY studies indicate a MORE SEVERE sell off thereafter on March 9th & 10th

Some people have already told me that March 10th should be a HIGH
I DONT believe them !!! - > why ? You ask- because I don't have to follow others

heres my outlook
Natural Energy indicates a lower low
Astro energy indicates a FULL MOON LOW
10th reading > Surprise shakes ups
the 10th is 11 days from 23rd
50% of 13 day cycle at 2pm
11/33/55/77 month low as per Jerry R
250 tr day LOW as per tradings cycles
44 tr days on 12th = Bradley TURN date
44/11 = 4 tr days low cycle

11th reading > GOOD NEWS and CHEER
12th > cooperation
13th > delightful

Still got 1pm for high today and tomorrow 4th possibly at
either

More Later
Jay

Monday, March 02, 2009

3pm update

Low right now at 3pm an hourly turn- 260
matching the Low at 150 bars @ 1;45pm
NOW its 3:25 and still fading spx 702
hourly turn next at 3;47pm

It looks now like we should see spx699 hit at tomrrow's open
then rebound TOMRROW, not today
the expected rebound today was very meager and may have already hit
at 2;30pm

OF course I still expect tomrrow to open LOWER at9:45 @ 180 bars
THEN the rebound tomrrow till 1pm
BUT once they get to the high of the rally tomrrow at about 1pm,
it should COLLAPSE then make its NEXT important LOW
on Thursday at 11 am to 11;30

ive been given a fibo martix that shows potential
to get to spx 635, and IMO that could be either the target for
Thurs and or March 10th & IF they get to that level on March 5th, then March 10
COULD POSSIBLY reach down to spx 604

As you may or may not have realized, MY forte is TIME, not necessarily PRICE

I get price levels from applying FIBO and or Murrey math levels

Those price levels DONT mean anything unless you can time them

Remember Dec 08, and some one convinced me that spx 600 was going to
happen immediately --- BAHHH humbug, no way _____;

But NOw we have SERIOUS break of spx 744, and ACCELERATION
DOWN is to be expected which is hapenning right now, and the targets above are
now legitimate

More later
Jay

LOD @ 11;15 today

Its very possible we have hit the LOD at 10:30 as projected on Friday
and again this AM before the open

I did sell out my put positions for about a 26% gain from Friday

NOW what to do next ?
I still have some buying power and I might put it to use at 1;15pm.
there should be a rebound into that slot.

according to my propensity index which opened today at 2906, DOWN from 3023 on Friday
Jumps up today to 3012, then fALLS again into tomrrows open at 9:45 where the
HOURLY meets the road > {g} just a little humor

NOTICE HOW GLD bounced a the OPEN from 92.22 to 93.60 a gain of \$1.38 on the
DOW drop of 155 pts then fell off now at 11am @ 91.67 which is - \$.96

NOW that we have CONFIRMED that GOLD is running in EXACT inverse to equities,
we can now use the GLD to make \$ also on gold trading with some degree of accuracy.
I noticed the contra relationship since the HIGH of FEB 23rd at \$1000,
and it is running with consistency since then.
WITH THE drop of GLD after the open leads me to confirm
my outllook for a rebound in stocks intrday.

its now 10:40 and the dow is still dropping to the 10:43 time slot at moon 90 Mercury
SPX to 715 and dow to 6889

Update at 11am SPX at 714.96- wow, how close can you get?
OH well now its 713.21 low so far and were coming up on 11;15 & 120bars

120b cycle at 11;15 which might provide the TURN UP
thats ALSO a typical hourly turn time

SOME Elliotters JUMPED OUT FRIDAY
and are calling for a LOW today or TOMRROW
DONT BELIEVE them~~~March 10th is IT

I dont want to get too far ahead, but new info has come to my attention
Just when you think thres Nothing NEW you can learn, it pops into your face.
ITS the 250 tr day cycle
March 10th 2008 to March 10th 2009 = 251 tr days
dont forget that Ive adjusted for 2 half days in Nov & Dec each year
the cycle calls for 247 to 254 tr days & the MIDDLE is 250 &1/2

Another mathematic relationship
248 tr days / 8 = 31
both of those are Murrey math #s.
noting that we have a MMath level of 723 - 8 = 715 at 11 am right NOW
If that breaks then 707 is next then 699 -- which ive alrady menioned b4

More Later

Jay

STill on track today

Expecting a LOW at 10;30

rebound after till 1pm then lower again till close
which might only match the 10:30 low

However there is ONE more OPP for lower low Tuesday at 9:45
the typical hourly for such but its ALSO 180 bars

Sell their short positions at 10;30
and buy then back at 1 to 1:15 pm
and close then out again at 9:45 Tuesday

Question, but you dont have to answer
This wkend and Today are astro STRESS days
ANYONE FEEL IT or get into family stress related situations?

WEd however BRINGS IT BACK-
Thursday calls for CONFLICTS & Upsets so get ready for more
Friday read calls for a CHANGE & Fortunate trends

Power index calls for a LOW on Thursday
and astro agrees with a moon 180 Pluto at 11;17
along with 23.6% / 13 day cycle @ 10:55
AND 90 bars @ 11:45 which could easily truncate to 11am
the HOURLY time slot

SO,the ONLY days that have ANY upside shots this week is
TUESDAY and FRIDAY
BOTH offer GREAT opps to get short again on previously closed short positions

friday because of the DEEPER LOWS due on the 10th

More Later
Jay

Sunday, March 01, 2009

I tried to upload a chart, but I cant seem to get one posted
BUT

Look at a CHART of CITIBANK as of Friday at \$1.50

IF, it gets UNDER 1.00 on March 10th

GUESS WHAT ?/ What ? You guessed it

Im buying for a 10 day rebound to the Upper Bollinger band near \$5.

More later
Jay

Could be WORSE than I imagined

HERES a HYPOTHESIS from Steven Rock at the Crystal ball group

IF IF IF 2000-2002 was an A wave of a FLAT correction (since the '07 top is basically the same as the '00 top) then we are (roughly) in the C=A area right now. BUT if C extends to 1.618 *A in nominal terms you're looking at an SPX in the very low 300's:
Wave A (max using '02 low, not 3/03) = 1552.87-768.83 = 784.04

784.04*1.618 = 1268.60

Wave C = 1576.09-1.618*A = 1576.09-1268.60 = 307.49

As bad as that is, what really spooks me is this natural log calculation:

The entire ABC measured in natural logs from the 2000 top of 1552.87 to the (ugh) C target of 307.49 is........

1.619!!!

Sounds coincidental and alarmist, right? Well.....

Consider the entire advance in the SPX from the October '74 low of 60.96 to the 2000 top of 1552.87.

That's a natural log move of 3.23764...which is twice 1.6188!

So, the (ugh) move to 307 is ALSO an EXACT 50% retrace (in ln) of the move from '74-'00! AND 307 is less than 3 points off the 80.9% (half of 161.8%) retrace in nominal terms of the entire advance from the 1932 low to the 2007 top!

Less impressive perhaps are the facts that when square roots of prices are used, the 307 level marks the 61.5% retrace of the advance from the 1949 low to the 2007 top, and in natural logs, 307 is 99% close to the 61.8% retrace target for the 1982-2007 advance.

Unfortunately, there are even some calculations within the move down from the '07 top which point to the same area...for instance, the ln move from the May 2008 top will be 1.618^4 times the initial move from the October 2007 to the March 17 2008 bottom at 305.50 (perhaps in EW terms making the net move of waves 3-5 a Fibonacci 6.854 ln multiple of wave 1). But you can fiddle around with "scenarios" all day without hitting upon the path the market is actually going to take. Not necessarily an endeavor of futility, but perhaps one which can alert you to the possible importance of certain levels.

Of course, we've all seen calculations like these fall by the wayside as the market forges through time, but at least, if that 307 level was met, you'd have some reasons to believe the worst was over, and could act accordingly.

Best,

Rock

More later
Jay