Thursday, June 30, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 30th - Morning Report

June 30th @ 8:45am

A pattern has developed over the past few months, and it looks like this will be a repeat

2/28 hi to 3?13 lo
Apr 29 hi to May 16th
May 31 hi to June 16th

The Jaywiz  JULY MONTHLY projection clearly indicates the same for JULY

more later

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 29th - Morning Report

June29th @ 8:45am

As a 4th wave the Maximum gain by Elliott rules cannot exceed 1311.80 = the wave 1 low on May25th.

Fibo levels from 1345 to 1258 =87 pts & darn close to 89 fibo
gains can be fibo levels also
87 X 55% = 48 + 1258 = 1306 
87 X 62% =54 + 1258 = 1312

EKG shows potential at either open or late AM to reach fibo goals

Elliott graph shows SIMPLE COUNT and wave i of 5 of [1] to make itself known as of July1st.
and finish wave [1] by the 15th.

VOTING PROGRESSES in GREECE, but what does that have to do with the Markets?
NOTHING - but it just happens to coincide with a 4th wave rebound.

more later

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 28th - Morning Report

June 28th @ 8:35am
Futures at 8:30 indicate a moderate rise at open
THUS NO GAP DOWN TODAY as prelim seems to indicate

 Charts Edge graph above agrees with the JAYWIZ JUNE MONTHLY graph for this week, OTHER THAN  what already happened on Monday

Jaywiz graph showed a JUNE24low, rally on 27th, flattening on 28th, DIP on 29th - flat on 30th and a LOW on JULY 1st as does the graph above.

So needless to say, Jaywiz graph is in sync for the most part with CE for the balance of this week.

BOTH indicate Any UPSIDE the balance of this week is LIMITED and the BULK of the price action from Wed to Friday seems biased LOWER.

more later
More now
JAYWIZ index is at an EXTREME BEARISH level at .08
PC ratios are 50% bull/bear
High energy at 12:36pm today might provide the hod

More at 10am
35X 78= 27 + 1263 = 1290 RIGHT THERE at 10am

June28th @ 11am

I dont know what the delay factor is for the above, but they cant hold this level much longer

11am DAILY turn might back off into 11;30 at 30bars

Activity index yesterday only got to 1 66 at the hod, but TODAY is HOVERING at 0 to33
which agrees with the IMPACT stream above,
meaning this rally has limited life
and once the Greek parliament fails to pass the resolution, we WILL see the results.
OR it could ALSO be {BUY the RUMOR}{ SELL the news}

Jay @ 11am

Published May 31 & update June8th

Monday, June 27, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 27th - Closing Report

get Ready to break SPX 1253 by Friday
Augmented June27th EKG- had to include what has been thought of as pre-market hours 

June27th @ 2;30pm, but this REPRESENTS the Preliminary view of TOMMROW

Positive energy peaks today at 3pm

Neg energy flows late night but should spill over to Tomrrow's GAP DOWN OPEN

Today they got back the FULL 78% retrace of Friday's loss

The backdrop for today's rally comes from an oversold condition as shown by the PC ratios

The back drop for a late sell off and DOWN GAP open will be the lack of any agreement
between the Pres & Eric Canot, oh I mean Cantor

The Psych reads for Mon & Tues seem to have flipped.

Ive gotten a number of positive responses to the advent of a VPN- virtual private network
for daily collaboration to include intraday updates, charts, graphs, wave structure, pviots, cycles, energy effects and much more. The cost is $100/ 90 days NOW starting on July 1st, but YOU can JOIN the VPN group anytime thats convenient for you, and I will be tracking each member on an XL spread sheet.
PayPal allows you to use any credit card you prefer, and they will provide me with all the data I need to acknowledge & welcome your membership.

more later

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 27th - Morning Update

JUNE 27th @ 9am

Today's psych read for CONTRAST & Improvement after Late AM seems corroborated
by the EKG ABOVE.  Jay

Sunday, June 26, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -JULY 2011-Monthly Projections

Preliminary Guide for JULY 2011

Ive Designed July with a LOT more intraday detail, which may or may not pan out EXACTLY as shown every day, but the intent was to become more precise, which every one knows is IMPOSSIBLE

BUT we can certainly outline implied directional tendencies by the week, and IF this does help someone become a better trader, then it is worth the EXTRA EFFORT it took to produce this graph.

WE all KNOW the MKt can make dramatic moves ALL in one HOUR, DAY, or WEEK, so the above should also GIVE us a little more prespective when we can expect bigger daily or weekly activity.
Of course we can corroborate the above
Hourly via the Activity index
DAILY via the EKG
Weekly Via the POWER DATA
Monthly via ENERGY as above
and there are several other scientific tools available that are presented when important

More Later



Friday, June 24, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 24th - CLOSING REPORT

From one of my Yahoo group providers

The above 2 charts show a tests of the 200 day lower line after bouncing down from 
a shorter moving ave line such as 100 day and 70day on the top chart.

BUT it didnt - however IT WILL DO SO ON MONDAY
JUNE 24th @ 7:45am

I dont think that the 8:30 reports will be of any benefit to the bulls today

Yesterdays late rally was clearly indicated by the pivots as previously posted

Todays bar cycle pivots
126b@ 11am
156b@ 1pm
180b @ 3:30pm

Energy times
12:19 Positive
4:03pm Negative

Psych today
confusion- indecision - cloudy thinking

IMV, to get to 1240 on Monday we would really need to see a close under 1263 today
I could be wrong, but Monday at 11am is STILL A MAJOR PIVOT.
Greek vote on Tuesday is assured based on Psych for that day, following Monday's intraday low
SO, IMV, Even tho Im planing to re short today at or near open,
Im saving some $$ to BUY long on Monday @ 11am

more later

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 23rd - After Market Report

Even if teh EKG was not perfect today- ALL THE OTHER Parameters were offered in advance and available to any trader to use for FREE

11am LOW hit at 10:45 am
pivot convergence at 11am was
60bars & 13 day @ 1263 a solid FIBO 34.58 pts

A high at 1:30 PM was noted as HIGH ENERGY
 and FIBO + 13 pts retrace to 1276

A PIVOT low at 2;30 on the 90bar cycle was noted in advance
and the mkt turned a few minutes later to close at 1284
another FIBO level + 21pts

IF the mkt had closed at or near the LOW of the day, then a rally to 1284 would have been anticipated for tomrrow AM, but that ship has landed.

SO whats NEXT
we still have a VERY IMPORTANT LOW set for Monday at
11am on anther multiple cycle & neg energy convergence

and it has been noted by some to expect a low at 1240
why? weve discussed this MANY TIMES
wave 1 = wave 5
wave 1 was 58 pts
wave 4 topped at 1298 yesterday at 2pm
1298-58= 1240
UNLESS 1240 gets taken out tomorrow, then that level still stands as most probable.

More Later

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 23rd - Closing Report

Tomorrow's anticipated rebound looks DONE in an ABC to 1284 the 
+21 fibo level off the 11am low at 1263- today's EKG as published does 
not warrant an applause. The extension does show such but not published.
June23@ 8:25am

I had to copy & paste again making the EKG look a little funky
Today's open appears locked no matter what the JOBS data reports at 8:30am
and as suspected the Jobs report is weak thus enhancing the down push.
Previously discussed was spx @ 1270 as a neccessary low point tht shows the mkt has NO intention of attempting to
make another run on 1300--
**********THAT SHIP HAS SAILED********

BUT we are still considering 30bars within the first 5-10 minutes at OPEN to set a low from which they can rebound to
noon at the latest in a possible wave ii of [i] of 5 of [1]

what that means is JUST what was projected in the last few days and weeks- A DECLINE To at least 1240.
If that does occur by Monday, then the actual ending low of [1] might just break under 1200 by July 1st.
30b@ open
60b @ 11am
13day @ 11am
90b@ 2;30pm

The cycle convergence at 11am could set a pivot 
into a noon high as previously projected

I rally hope many of YOU are reading the OLDER publishing's in order to keep abreast with the current one.

And as mentioned b4, this blogger would like to see participation , but there was a great deal of annoying interference from what seems to have been a very JEALOUS
commentator and thus I had to cut off that distraction in order to concentrate on more important matters

As you can see, it clearly  has been much better- SO DONT JUST KICK THE TIRES - look around and show me you really care about learning more about my methods,& continuing this blog as well.

More later


Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 23rd - Prelim Report

updated @ 8pm
June 22 @ 7PM
HEY FOLKS- NOW that your here, dont just kick the tires
thanks- Jay
As projected Yesterday we got an 11am high
and 4pm LOW @ 30 bars as posted b4.

Tomrrow suggests a bias higher, 
but not for much and not for long.

Wave 4 hit its top at 11am at 1298.42, and YES it was a little higher than projected at 1292- GEEWHIZ, WELL JUST SHOOT me, I must have been asleep- ggg

SO< whats NEXT and WHEN do we get a REAL correction?
Great question, Im glad you asked

If today or tomrrow am finishes wv i of [i] , then we can NOW expect wave ii of [i] which as previously had been projected as recovering some lost ground, but is VERY LIMITED unless they open much lower tomrrow.

That doesnt seem very likely given all that we have mentioned
before on previous pages, but just in case you forgot or just tuning in for the first time.


Energetic START
Afternoon struggles- emotionally Jarring
30 bars looks like it hit at 4pm today, thus the next move is up
39 hours at 10am
today Jn 23rd OR yesterday is a BRADLEY DATE / TURN
55 from April 29th high to high, may have hit on 22nd

Indecision & confusion 
dont make false assumptions

Monday - Jn27th
A day of EXTREME Contrasts
gradual improvements in the afternoon

If today represents wav i of [i], and tomrw wvii of [i]
when is iii of [i] all in wave 5 of [1]

It would appear from the above that wviii of [i] will start on  Friday late  and finish Monday @ 11am
and finish on Monday at 11am.

Wave 1 was 58 pts
wave 3 was 87 pts
thats a 1.5% ratio or darn close to fibo 
at 1.618% would have been 94 pts

Wave 5 usually = wave 1
1298 - 58 = 1240 unless we get there BEFORE Monday at 11am

More later

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 22nd - Closing Report

MAKE IT SO< said the Cptn


OK got it with COPY & PASTE from my Pics

UPLOADS are not loading at 8:15- will try later
8:30 uploads still not working -- GRRR
but in the meantime

IT shows a LOWER OPEN, but not as low as the earlier futures would have indicated
Activity index is FLAT at 200
Impact stream ALSO shows a similar track as the Futures this am

A lower open had been projected, but it doesnt look as deep as shorts would like.
there is a HIGH energy point at 10am, which might linger till 11am
And I cant verify a much lower close as the EKG shows
It might close where the EKG shows a FLATTENING

210bars at open is not one of the usual & customary pivots.
220b at 10am sometimes works but is in conflict with high energy at 10am
228b@ 11am - might work out if the 10:07 am high energy is only a brief momentary high
258B @ 1:30 comes right after the FED announce, but prior to the conference-
which last time was a YAWN
30 bars @ 4pm

Not that it will happen the same way today, but last friday had 258b @ 11;30, and 30 b@ 2pm
made a lower low on the day. the point here is that 258b DOES NOT GUARANTEE the LOD.

Yesterdays Neg energy expected at 2;45pm was OVER POWERED by the summer solstice

TOMRROW is STILL EXPECT TO hold a STRONG rally and the early EKG agrees.

THE BIGGER down draft NOW appears best for late THSDAY to Monday at 11am

IF the LOD today is only a minor retrace of the last rally from 1267 to 1297 or 38% of 30pts
= 11pts down to 1285 area, then tomrrow should make a run attempting to break 1300, and might even hit 1305, but dont expect much more than that.
the NEXT BIG MOVE is either a iii of 3 or a 5th wave of [1]

more later

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 21st - Closing Report

EKG seems to show a much lower close, 
but remember 2 things 

2. As often happens the NEXT day picks up where today 
left off , so tomrrow stands a very good chance of 
losing all today's gains at OPEN

June 21@7:30am
a higher open appears obvious today, but what happens after agrees with energy and psych as
previously noted.

26Hrs @ 10am should be a temp peak
150 bars at 11:00 am can offer the early setback , but just a little backing off
High energy at 1:08pm should give us the HOD, or thereabouts-

180B @ 1:30pm
204B @ 3:30 pm

The Power data has been in perfect sync with the mkt & the EKG
It shows today open higher, backs off, then higher again, and failing end of day
the question remains -Will that drop off continue on Wed at the open,
or can i catch a swing higher at open?? IMV, Im Looking at the POWER DATA which shows
a lower open, then later rebound as the FED announce is at 12;30pm
which could coincide with some wild swings at the point in time.
and Thsday Psych indicates an energetic start thus a higher open.

difficult to interpret tomrrow as there are some conflicts.
The EKG shows possible higher open
the POWER DATA shows potential LOWER OPEN
Dynamic index topped on the 18th and has SLIPPED lower from there
Activity index has been hovering at the 100 to 200 level since the 13th

A marked low has been projected SEVERAL TIMES now for the 24th, and NOW

SO what , you ask why discuss the 27th on the 21st?
AS previously projected & Above, and HIGH of the 4th wave is expected at about 1pm today
Heres what Im asking myself
DO I hold my short position all the way to Monday or try to catch some short term swings
on the way down??

Read the Psych report on a previous blog page
Ive been rather prolific this am and it can get rather confusing so heres what im seeing
A peak today at the 1pm hour

A LOW tomrrow at 1:30pm on 258bar pivot

A higher open on Thsday at 39hrs @ 10am and stay up or higher till
about the Noon hour to high energy/change at 1;30pm latest

Down all day friday
Down Monday till 11am
cycles converge at about 11am
204bar pivot and  a segment of the 13day at 10:20
which can extend to match neg energy at 10:54am

more later

Monday, June 20, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 20th - Wave Report

from 1290 possibly tomrrow, we should expect the 5th wave to drop an equal amount as wave 1
Wave 1 was from 1370 to 1312 = 58 pts
wave 5 should take from 1290 -58pts = 1232


Sunday, June 19, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 20th - Closing Update

Hey, there's NO DOUBT The EKG works extremely WELL
In View of the Futures at 8:30am we can expect the mkt to open lower,
recover and close out lower than the hod. - Elliott wavers are showing the spx in a
4th wave expanding triangle with possible 'e' wave to upper line at 1290.

June 19@ 4;30pm

I will be out most of the day tomrrow, but will check in when I return

60b @ 10am
90b @ 12:30

Friday hit 30bars on schedule exactly at 2pm

Today , Monday should be mostly biased higher till 3pm, then should cool off into the close

Tuesday is expect to be biased higher till noon the hour, and should cool
more dramatically than Monday into the close

WEd should also open higher that the previous close, but shouldnt last past 10am
Thsday is ALSO set for a high energy start and could continue till about noon

Friday looks like CONFUSION & cloudy thinking are the eminent psych for the day
DONT MAKE FALSE ASSUMPTIONS- IMO, that means Sentiment will be very negative
Dont get caught up in crash scenarios.

Monday June 27th might start out on the weak side, but should make gradual improvement during the day

more later


June 20 @ 9am -This is what Elliot wavers are indicating,
which adds validity to my outlook for today & tmorrow 

IMV, the 3rd wave low was June 13- labeled b above, and they are tracing out an IRREGULAR FLAT
where "a" is at 1292, now finishing "b" @ 1258, and "c" runs higher or equal to "a"

June 20 @ 9:30am

Saturday, June 18, 2011

Friday, June 17, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 18th Weekend Report-


Yesterday & today from 1259 to 1280 can be considered wave
a of 3 legged rally into Late Monday & early Tuesday which should constitute wave (4)

Please forgive my lack of correct Elliott labels, but I think it just as important
to show the current wave in SIMPLE easy to understand labels-
IF you want exact labels - go to Danerics page

Heres some math to chew on
1345-1258= 87pts
1258 to 1279 = 21 pts & aha fibo
21/87 = 24% or FIBO @ 23.6% near perfect

38% x 87 = 33pts near perfect fibo 34
33+1258 =1291

55% = 42pts + 1258 = 1306

Those are the POTENTIAL price levels we could expect to see early next week.

more later


Market Timing-Whats Next -June 17th - Closing Report

IF I Snipped  OUT this SECTION from the DATA stream, it would have fitted today's activity much much better than the EKG shown below, but each day IT'S a VALUE judgement that I have to make deciding when to start and end the EKG graph, 
thus there will be some variances from time to time-Jay
June17th @ 8am

THE FUTURES ARE indicating a strong open, and that makes it unlikely to see another low today

The DIP shown above might come at 10am on the LEI & Consumer sentiment data

but that could just be a back kiss on the line formed at the 1269 range

Psych today calls for RELIEF from the last 2 days

Rally should run into Monday and part of Tuesday, the summer Solstice

A continuation of the EKG shows a LOW CLOSE OFF the Mi Day's highs
Which agrees with the POWER DATA, and I notice HELGE has the same for today,
BUT I tend not to expect such a dramatically lower close, but off the highs at close.

In other words, yesterday's low at 1258 might have been enuf for this wave--see the chart below

more later

If they run above 1274 to 1279, then we should probably use a higher level to work with

1292 - 1258 = 34 - ahhh fibo
+13 = 1271
+21 =1279
+27 =1285

87x 38% =33
33+1258 = 1291
see Daneric's blog also

ANY set back off the 10am HIGH should occur 
258bars at 11;30am 
10am HIGH holding at 1279.59
could back off to the 1270 line

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 16th - Closing Report

Would you be angry if a I just wrote - WOW
June16 @ 8am
SPX closed just barely under the low of Jn13th at 1265.42
What could that mean?

Ive mentioned this several times
Neg Energy & 156Bars meet at open tomrroow
which means we "should" /could" open at 1250 to 1225,
but is that the end of it?

Not according to the power data
tomrrow it shows a mid day high, matching high energy indicated at 1;23pm.
then it looks lower at the end of the day, also matching neg energy
 but we have no idea if it will close on a lower low or not. -I doubt it.
Interesting - the power data ALSO indicates a DOWN to flat OPEN
on Friday, and IMV, that would be ONE HELL OF A BUY. as it climbs higher
from there into Monday/ Tuesday.

Charts edge was certainly way off today, but he does show a
SHARPLY LOWER open for tomorrw, then higher into the 17th and higher yet.

Can we get under 1200 tomorrow??
Correct me if you see something else but today looks like
a 1,2 & 1,2 now waiting for 3 which makes sense given the above
156bars at open & Neg energy = wave 3
180bars at 11:30 AM could be wave 5
but lets wee where the spx opens after a few minutes
I will be very tempted to close out shorts, but might only do a 1/2 close
and hold 1/2 till 180bars.
then they start to build waves 1,2 on the UPSIDE for a high on the 20th/21stAM.

Jaywiz index still very bearish at .24
but all the PC ratios have more bullish readings

short term overbot on the 14th
THE 5 day ARMS index gave a SELL yesterday at .87 - this is 5 day ave
& 5 day trin was 435 - this is 5 day cum
Today's ARMS INDEX = 2.41, building 5 & 10 day up to more bullish levels
SAME WITH VIX @ 21.32--  wouldn't we expect it to hit 30??

I would think that a SHARPLY LOWER open would back off till
10 to 10;30, then head into the 180b pivot @ 11;30, making a lower low
BUT of course the mkt may have other ideas.

There is NO other TIME that this 3rd wave low can be accomplished
the 24th has to be the low as my monthly ENERGY graph indicates.
thus that has to become the 5th wave ending the correction and WAVE (1)
which will then give us wave (2) early August

EKG also shows a lower open, and all the above hinges on lower futures
as of 7pm WEd Jn15, as I write this, the futures are only up slightly spoos +2.10
Of course there is housing starts & Jobless claims at 8:30am for which they can feed off
Oil up .65 cts also at 7pm
but its a LONG long time till 9:30am, and if both Asia & Europe are markedly lower
should feed the bears also.

Heres something else- CNBC comments bottom fishing tonight
A bottom has to accompany neg sentiment- where the comments are NOT conducive to buying

DOW future down 52
spx -5.50

More Later


Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 15th - Wave report

Regardless of incorrect Elliott labels , YOU GET THE POINT

If this is correct, we should see the results at close today

WAVE v = [i] -  I know thats not correct labels, but it doesnt change the outcome
1345-1305= 40 pts, hmmm theres that 40pts rule of thumb again
1292 -40 pts = 1252
AND THATS what I had projected back in May.

THe final wave 5 on the 24th could exceed 1252 to 1235, or not, but its not important right this minute
more later


Market Timing-Whats Next -June 15th - Morning Report

June15th @ 8:25am
AT 8:35 S&P futures NOW OFF 12.20 and dow off 100
Europe DOWN
OIL down

Frequently then the EKG has a long tail indicating a lower close, and the mkt only starts to sell off
at the end of the day, it follows thru the next morning.

Some are thinking that June 13 @ 1266 was the wave 3 low
IMV, i think it will be today a little lower & should set the CLOSING LOW of the week
adn teh clsoing low of wave 3

TOmrrow AM appears should open lower, thus really setting the wave 3 intraday low
and thats why the JAYWIZ charts show a rally on Friday

Remember I mentioned that some techs posted today as a cycle convergence
 AND TODAY SHOULD LOOK JUST LIKE JUNE 1st Eclipse day which followed May31st rally day,

Psych read for today
$$ affairs come to a head - goes along with the above cycle convergence

90b @ 10:30
126b @ 1:30
156b @ 4pm or OPEN NEXT DAY

wild mood swings today
Looks like that 156b pivot might be hitting at open.
228b @ 3;30- could be the most important turn of the week

More Later