Thursday, January 31, 2008
259 bars sometimes indicates a TURN DOWN and we might just get that tomorrow
Bradley date of Feb 3rd, may have occurred today, thus giving those of you who mentioned a down feb 4th will have been right; congrats.
Monday is 126 bars at 2pm,
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Now On Jan 30, we hae a double rate cut and the market at first said hooray, but the volume to sustain a rally was lacking and some bullshit story about downgrading some obscure financial institution made the headlines. Man what crap. Volume was the key today.
The market was due to rally and fall with or with out all the rhetoric.
Tomorrow is scheduled to take a further hit and the 259 bar cycles @ 10;30am on Friday.
That should represent a buying opp to get the spx to close at 1380 on or b4 Feb 6th.& Still got
Feb 6th first hr as an important TURN leading to a devastating followthru to retest and or break to new lows on Feb13th.
Best in 2008
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
What does that mean for the 1st qtr? lets explore
Jan 23rd had a large grouping of short term cycles converging and thus the inital short term low which set lower lows than 2007, and challenged 2006 numbers.
The NEXT most critical time period in the 1st qtr seems to be between March 1st and Arpil11th, but even more specifically March 22nd April11.
A large numbers of LONG TERM CYCLES converge in the time frame, and should setup a serious trading low.
This is not to say that FEb will offer lower numbers, it probably will between FEb6th and 13/15th.
What about the fed rate cuts? you ask . wont that have a positive effect on stocks? YES, but not immediate. It takes time for those cuts to trickle into the actual ecenomy.
Best to all
Friday, January 25, 2008
I've mentioned Jan 28th and 29th b4, and they are headed for a low. Question at this point is how low?
If only a fibo retrace, then 12,000 would seem right, but if it really turns into a black Monday, then it could take out 12k, and head for 11,750
I have doubts about that, but it is possible.
If the wave structure completes 5 waves down On Monday and Tuesday, then the real 4th wave should have its day thru the open hour of Feb 6th.
From there, they could then proceed to head lower in the 5th of 5th, which astrotrader has projected can occur on Feb20th, the second eclipse
The 8 day cycle started at
jan 2nd first hr high
Jan 11th closing low
jan 25th first hr high
Feb 6th expected first hr high
Feb 18th expected first hr
best in 2008
Is this a 4th wv rebound?
Some are projecting 12,450 to 12,500, and It looks like we might have that in during the 1st hour today. There is an 8 days cycle which does peak in the first hour today.
a 4th wave rebound is very likely.
The poor start that Jan had does not recover in a week, or month, and may even take all year.
A 4th wave would usually occur in 3 waves. If we've got the "a" wave completeing, then" b" should be next. That wave has its rules and can even drop below the 3rd wave low, but not usually. typically it would be at least 50% of the rebound = about 350 dow pts to 12,000 level.
If thats the case, then Tuesday am has the best timing for such.
Still expecting Feb6th eclipse to provide a High.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Also had positive influences with venus 0 pluto
Some other analysts and myself now consider the rally finished, call it wave 4, now looking for wave 5 obviously
Solar energy is lower for next 2 days and closes friday at its lows.
the next 259 bar cycle hits on Monday @ 2pm.
23rd was called by some for an important low and it certainly was, but unlike August, we are still looking for the 5th wave leg to close at spx 1250 area in the next 3 days.
That would setup the 30th, rate cut day for a huge rally into The FEb 6th Eclipse, and continue to hold and run higher to the lunar eclipse on the 22nd.
IMO, If the dow doesnt drop to a new closing low today, then Its possible this rebound
<>till the close>, which i doubt. There is a 90 bar cycle at 3;30.
BUT if it does, then I might want to consider this the rally i expected for the open tomorrw.
Jan 23rd should close on its lows, or @3;30 where the 90 bar cycle appears to be set.
Jan 24th should open up HUGE, BUT according to the projected solar energy patterns,
IT WONT LAST
Still got a probable low at 11am on the 25th.
And more selling is possible on the 28/29th.
Fed meeting on29/30
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Make it so, said the captain. That way I can get the best option prices on my puts.
Jaywiz INDEX = .21= MORE SELLING coming
adv decl index at 217 and vol index at 259, both well under 400, Thus a rally should occur, but its only a setup for further declines
Merc retro on 28th
mars direct on 30= take the brakes off and start spending.
Today's armsd index = .92, and in no way can that be considered a buy signal
the Augsut 15th or 16th was a 10.00- now thats a buy signal
I'll let you know when we get something like that.
Monday, January 21, 2008
unlke the 2000/2001 market which took 15months, the 1998 deal fell in a few months as this market appears destined to do.
Tuesday's and Wed readings are difficult at best to define.
However, It does look like they are destined to open MUCH lower and continue lower all day till the 329 bar count at 2:30pm.
From there, it is possible,
Still got he 40-45 day cycle in effect which runs from the 24th to the 29th
Stan Harley has mentioned the 24th quite often as an almost absolute date fro the 40/42 trade day low off Nov 26th and the previous lows in his sequence.
However, that break of the MCOS pennant, plus the waning effect after the Jupiter 120 Saturn seems to make the timing stretch out to the max which is the open on Tuesday Jan 29th till about 10am
We havent seen a market like this since 1998, and thus we are struck because we still expect those incredible rebounds at every dip. This time it will wait till its really over. thats what a head & shoulders pattern does- reverts back to the start, and some have posted charts showing spx values in the 1100 area.
It may happen on Tuesday or it could hold off till WEdnesday, but the charts I look at indicate this market is heading lower until at least the 29th as mentioned b4.
Tuesday USA would depend on How Europe behaves at its open, but it matters not as this week appears destined to plunge even further than most woud suspect, leaving the door open to the first January crash in history.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Oct 10 to Nov 26 = 1350 pts ---Wv1
Dec 10 to JAn 25-28th = How many points- heres some simple Fibo math
1350 X 1.618 = 2200--- Wv3
Dec 10 13,700 - 2200 = 11,500
Thats Puts TIME and price on Jan 25th to 28th @ Dow 11,500
Another analyst on the T&C site provided a different analysis, but came out with the same dates
1728 trading week from 12/1974 = week of Jan 25th
288 weeks from Oct ,2002 = week of Feb 1st
the H&S chart i posted has come to life and is now in full retreat down to the next channel line on the dow as well as the spx.
Are they entitled to a bounce? Quick anwser is Yes, BUT
Sure the numbers are showing GREATLY oversold data, but it doesnt mean an instant rebound.
Especially in a 3rd wave DOWN Leg. WHEN will we get the rally you ask? OK<>
As mentioned b4, there is a 40/45 trade day low approaching next week, and in this environment, that should prove most important. Between the 24th and 29th.
ON an astro level , keeping it simple, and I say that becuse ive seen some people get really elaborate.
Full moon early Tuesday = keep secrets
Venus 0 Pluto early WEd = money regeneration
Merc retro on 28th = coincidental often with turns
mars direct on 30th = Take the brakes off spending
Jan 22 = down
Jan 23rd = rebound, but may not make it to the close
Jan 24/25= DOWN
29th might just become the TURN around Tuesday we have come to know and love.
Feb6th ECLIPSE high
the MCOS penant has been broken on the downside, and bodes very badly for stocks in 1st qtr of 2008, even if we do get a short term powerhouse rally.
Some have offered targets down to SPX 1255 area.
Best to all in 2008
Thursday, January 17, 2008
heres the stats
Cboe PC ratio = a whopping 1.53
OEX pc ratio = 1.44 *** Bullish
spx 500 pc ratio = 2.37 *** bullish
VIX = 28.46 UP 4.08 today ** Bullish
LOW hit at 3;45 RIGHT on the 259 bar cycle dow low 12,125 -- closed higher @ 12159
Arms index 2.29 bullish
SPX fell 80 points from the high on Monday ** thats usually a maximum or 2 X 40pts
Dow Volume shrank from Thursday
Jaywiz index which gave a .11 reading on WEd was very bearish, but today's = .41* Bullish
Even tho the evidence will give us a rally tomorrow, it appears it will be a one day wonder;
Some evidence is already appearing to show me we will see a lower market next week, starting right from Tuesday, but more on that later. Dont get over excited about tomorrows numbers.
best to all in 2008
its going to get really rough thru the whole first qtr.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
The solar energy levels indicates possible selling today and also tomorrow.
There are bar count lows due at
60 bars @11am
90 bars @1:30pm
astro hit @ 2:46pm
Market should recover some from there.
Solar energy levels indicate a rally on 17th and 18th.
18th is option expiration and could be quite a positive show of short covering.
22nd appears to be a short term CIT, and might offer a high from which the 40/42 trade day cycle takes over and heads lower into the 24th & 25th.
the JAYWIZ index did score a 19on the 11th and 24 yesterday to indicate more selling as we see today. Its now 11;15 and the dow is off its lows as predicted by the 60 bar count @ 11am;
The 126 bar count hits at 10 am tomorrow after the 8:15 CPI report, so it might concur with a secondary low at that point.
A recovery after that should lead to the rebound on Jan 17 & 18.
best to all in 2008
Monday, January 14, 2008
One other indicator that I developped from my data collection show a rise from
Dec 4th @ .40
Dec 26 @ 1.20
Jan 11 @ .66
thus confirming the current move Up after Friday Jan 11th
Jan 11th was also 52 hours, - 8 trade days from the OPEN of Jan 2nd .
the next 8 trade day point is Jan 24- keep inmnd that the 21st is a trading holiday.
As for this week, the POLARITY index jumed to Positive on the 13th after being in the Negative for the previous 8 days.
Looing for a trading high this week onWed, and again on Friday morning.
Friday could begin the selloff into the 24th/25th where there is a 40/42 trade day low due off the previous low of Nov 26th.
Best to all for 2008
Friday, January 11, 2008
3 day rally next week into the 16th/17th with a drop off on the 18th but nothing very severe.
2 days of rally attempts this week were only rebounds within a decline phase of possible wave 1 or an A wave.
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
And it should be one heck of a rebound
However, some technicians have been posting spx getting to 1255/1275 on the 11th
This target has already begun even tho most of my techindicators are oversold right NOW, they will get more so by Friday.
I was thinking Monday Jan 14th, but the EVIDENCE is mounting toward a Jan 11th LOW
It should be the first stopping point off a WEAK right shoulder as pointed out in the previous post.
If the spx gets to 1275, the dow equal is about 11,750, which is the yr 2000 all time high.
Such a test does portend much lower levels later in the year. Maybe march 24th?
But for NOW, get ready to BUY the low this Friday
For what it worth, CNBC is beating up CFC- Countrywide financial which has fallen from $25 to 2.50 -- YOU be the judge, is it time to buy it??
Best to all for 2008
let me know if Im doing better, and if YOUR doing better .
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
This chart was posted on another site, but since its just a pic of the dow, Im sure the presenter wont mind if I use it to show point
This Head & Shoulders formation DOESNT occur very often and since its so rare, I wanted to show it so YOU can take advantage of it also.
The lower channel line the dow is sitting at is 12,800 which was Jan 4th close
The next level in such a formation would be the next level lower at dow 12,000
Is such cases, these events occur very quickly, and since the first week of Jan was off 565dow pts, it represnets the worst openning week in 100 yrs. Whats that mean ? You ask.= TROUBLE
Ive mentioned the 9 month and 22/44wk cycle OFF last March 14, previously, and it strikes on Jan 14th. There is also a hard aspect astro cluster this weekend.
Everything POINTS to a severe SELL off this week probably starting on the 10th.
Gravitational levels are at 500 today, and same for tomorrow, then drops to 400 thru Friday.
The Arms index of 4.09 on last Friday might usually be viewed as an exhaustion LOW, but since it ocurred when it did, and taking all the other factors into account, then it actually portends severe danger just ahead.
Interesting dates of the H&S
July 16 High-------Oct 10 high ------- Dec 10th high
Aug 16 low -------Nov 12 low ------- Dec 17 low ----- Now expecting Jan 14/15 lows
Best to All, & comments welcome
Monday, January 07, 2008
If thats what it takes to get lower gas prices, we will take recession over ??
What the heck have we on the street been experiencing for 3 years - Its called Recsssion.
BUT NOW its recognized- do you get my satire ??
Friday's low at 4pm was 180 bar cycle, not 3pm
Thus we advanced Monday's times up accordingly
204 bars cycled at 10:40am
60 bars cycled @ 3:40pm, thus the closing rally
Whats that mean for tomorrow's hot spots?
90 bars @ 11:15
126 bars @ 2:15
Gravitational forces looks like a continuation of the trend all week
Tomorrow COULD start out on the UPSIDE, but it will probably be less short lived than today's open and NO recovery until at least 2:15, if any then either.
Jaywiz Index = .35, Not very bearish, but certainly NOT bullish.
It would appear that any rallies intraday this week are fated to fail as the bigger cycle may be due on Jan 15th. Now that the Dec 17th LOW of spx1445 has been broken, a lower low is next and that means the next 9 month cycle low should be even lower.
Next break is under the Nov 26th low of spx 1407
March 22nd has been pointed out as the Armstrong cycle LOW of the 1st qtr of 2008.
Add 9 months = Dec 2008, or possibly November if we cut off one month for the one that was added to Dec to get to Jan.
Best to all
Saturday, January 05, 2008
Midnite Low tide is the 6th
Lunar cycle shows a BIG rise due NOW
gravitational levels for Friday ended up at a LOW under 300, but was identified as 500 in error
Grav effects made a VERY DRAMATIC change TODAY
5th jumps up to 600
6th up to 650
7th still higher yet to 700, BUT for ONLY PART of the day
8th drops back down to 400
9th = 400
10th even lower to 350
evidently a huge solar flare has transmitted energy to us on earth?
BUT its not a lasting event??
Heres some other data to indicate a potential HUGE rally part of Monday
93% DOWN VOLUME
Arms ONE day index = 4.09
this also raises the levels of some of the technical indexes to rather high levels, BUT the grav info above negates a solid BUY for now.
New moon early Tuesday AM
JAYWIZ INDEX = .12 on top of the .25 from Thursday- BOTh indicating further selling, and the 10 day ave dropped to 34.1
Thursday, January 03, 2008
gravitational levels for tomorrow are higher @500
Monday moves even higher to 700
Tuesday and Wed both drop to 425
There is the matter of getting by the 22/44wk cycles low as mentioned b4 and pointed out by another analyst
which occurs the week of Jan 14th to 18th
Feb 6 is still looking strong for a possible new high
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
Dec 31st went as expected
Jan 2nd went as expected
Whats expected for Jan3rd?
As previously written - it should also be a down day
However, we are getting very close to a BUY which should arrive on tomorrow's close
Heres some stats
Jaywiz Adv/Decl index = 396 & just under the 400 threshold
Jaywiz Volume Index = 307 & well under the 400 level
both of theses are ALERTS to a change in trend within a day or 2.
Jaywiz NEW Index = 48 & close to a buy, should be over 50 for a real buy - cant wait to see what tomorrows index is. should register a solid buy.
The 10 day average is now at 42.6, and on DEc 18th low it was 37
its range has been from 31 to 68. so 50 is mid range.
5 day ARMS index = 160.6 & is a very strong buy
5 day trin = 803 and is also registering a buy
10 trin = 126.5 ------- Ditto
Gravitational level today was a low 300
Jan 3 = same
Jan 4th starts to rise and over the wkend runs up to 600
Monday, Jan 7= 500
Tuesday, Jan 8 = 400
It seems to indicate some possible backing off, but not too serious. The reading is 7 days out and not as reliable as the 4 or 5 day, so updates will be noted.
OEX pc ratio = .90 more on the sell side under 1.00
CBOE pc rati0 = 1.15 & neutral but leaning toward a buy
SPX 500 pc ratio = 2.03 leaning toward a buy
Gold has been running UP every down day on the dow, maybe made a short term high?
180 bars cycle @ 10.30 hit at 10:20
204 bar cycle @ 12:30 was exact
30 bars later = 3pm, a minor dip.
SPX might seek the 2006 HIGH of 1431.82
Market fell AFTER the 2pm FED minutes
90 bars should cycle @ 1:30pm tomorrow &
126 bar cycle @4pm, which is actually 120 bars, buts that allowed.
Expect the market to rally FRIDAY from the open as the jobs report is at 8:30am
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
Jan 2000 had a high on the 14th, and we are looking for a low.
Feb 2000, had an extreme low on the Feb5th Eclipse and we are looking for a High on the Feb6th Eclipse this year 2008.
There are some analysts on other sites who are predicting Gann squares of 9, and are expecting a high on FEb 1st of dow 14,300, as is Charles Nenner from what i've been reading today.
This extra info fits well with what IVE BEEN TELLING YOU the past few postings. This is also to let you know that I DO MY OWN work, and here is info from other sources confirming my work.
Happy new year 2008