Wednesday, August 29, 2007

minor sell signals

just as the close of Tuesday provided a number of buy signals
the close of today provides just the opposite
Here they are:

light volume
Arms index daily = .27 - havent seen that in a very long time
Up vol = 96% it was 93% down on Tuesday
Cboe PC ratio = .96 , and down from 1.30 day b4
oex PC ratio = .57 can be seen as a screaming sell
spx 500 PC ratio = 1.24 - has been holding ranges near 2.00 and up, so this one is bearish
These ratios are all indicating a lot of CALL BUYING.
the day's reading calls for loss of enthusiasm and stalled out.
Solar effect is down for tomorrow

However, Friday could be just the opposite again, but the bar count hits 180 at 11am on Friday, and there is numerous inflation data coming out at 8:30am. which might go against offering a rate cut. On the otehr hand Friday has a few other hidden asssets which might lend a hand in providing an upday. You can see why I keep vacilating about Friday.

Charts Edge 3 month charts so far seems quite accurate, and does show Friday as an upday.
I cant imagine why the weekly report contradicts the monthly charts, but the weekly shows Friday as a down day.


Tuesday, August 28, 2007


Am I the only one who reads my blog.
The market fell out of bed on 8-28-07. DUH- how much more do you want?

According to the solar effects, theres still more selling to come this week.

I did sell my puts on the close today, that were bot last thursday for a 25% gain, even though I bot them a bit early in the game, 350 pts lost in 2 days made up more than what was needed.

I am planning to buy them back on any rally up till about 11am Tomorrow. And even if I am wrong, and the market closes higher for the day, it will be made up later in Spt. 10th to 12th.
IMO, It wouldnt be far fetched to see the dow at 12,800 by Friday.

Even reading the FED minutes from Aug 7th did nothing to stop the selling today.
SO, does the FED move the markets or does the market move the FED.??

Bernanke and company are hiding themselves in a fortress this Friday- whom are they hiding from? the big bad wolf?? is the wolf at the door?

Many are expecting his speech to move the market- BUT in which direction?


Monday, August 27, 2007

Ominous monetary events

Sptember has been the weakest month of the year in historic terms and more lows have ocurred in October than any other month of the year.

Tomorrow could appear to fall out of bed.

many newbies have traded the market for the last 5 years without as much as a 3 % correction, and even the Aug 15th hit recovered quite well. those newbies have reported never having lost money , and thats good, cause they are going to need lost of spare cash and much fortitude to withstand the next 45 days.

There seems to be some type of international monetary crisis brewing which unlike a possbile terrorist event which could be prevented or thwarted, a money event cannot be stopped, and it would appear it began in August, but hasnt really hit home yet.
Dollar crash?? maybe.
My timing calls for Spt 10 to 12th, with more fallout the week after


Sunday, August 26, 2007

Are we there yet?

Where is THERE ?
A rebound HIGH ? very possible, and it got a little higher than the fibo relationships
13,400 is 62% of the 1500 point decline intraday
Friday's rally up on AIR.

Whats in store for sptmber??- See charts edge 4 week chart for gold-
matches closely my assesment.
Starting next week, I would agree with charts edge for Monday and especially Tuesday
however, the balance of the week Wed to Friday has an upward bias.

A low on the 4th mid day is expected to give way to an upward bias most of the week
till about mid day on Friday.

10th to 12th can be quite stressful, and it is 6yr anniv of 9-11, which by itself mean nothing unless someone gets off a sneak attack in the US. ???
another stress full day is 17th,
FED day should be quite positive, but this time the party wont last all week.
More later

Thursday, August 23, 2007


If you didnt buy in att the open, then it was wait all day to get in at 3:50pm

It was OBVIOUS from the OBV, MACD and Ult oscilator that a rally was brewing from the 1pm low.

in the 3 oclock hour they ran up to +10. and then backed of to -26, only to runup again to +6.66, now thats a nice number

anyway, I was able to grab some puts at a price that Was In the MIDDLE of the range as I had the buy in during the last itsy bitsy runup

The SETUP is there for a decent selling day tomorrow
the MACD blue line cut through the red line
Obv dropped
Ult osc dropped,
and price just barely made it to even.
SPX is indicating a dow lower by $11.36 on a scale of 8/1

Best Wishes

best made plan often go astray

Should have been shorting the open.

Noon gave us teh low of the day so far

I will be looking for a rebound in between the bar count to get short

expecting a fairly good sell off tomorrow.

Best bet, IF SHORT , will be to sell my short position on Friday by the close and go home flat.

Enjoy the wkend knowing I made some $$

Best Wishes


long winded

please accept my appologies if I have gotten too lengthy with my analysis.

Some people just want to know when to trade& what.

I have attempted to let you know when its time to make a trade, but I might have been remiss on that score of late.

So here it is short and sweet.
NOw is the time to get short AGAIN

I am planning to buy some puts at about NOON today, and they should be good till Aug 28th, but more on that later.

So far the dow has openned UP 55 pts in the first 10 minutes of trading
13,250 was mentioned as a dow target and now they are above that.
13,310 is the next critical level which is fibo 38.2 % of 460 pts abovve the lowest close on Aug 16th,
that would take the dow UP 74 points, and should provide strong resistence.

best Wishes

Monday, August 20, 2007

Corrective Wave

A major correction seems to be in progress from the July19th high of DOW14,000
but you knew that already, right?

Its now 9;45 and my 90 bar hit seems to be happenning a little late and it might continue to the 126 bar time zone at 12:30
If there were 5 waves from July 19 to Aug 17th, that would be considered wave "A", and the fact that it took 5 waves means that was only the start of the correction, not the end of it.

Wv "B" already in progess could take the dow to 13,100 or 13,250 by Thursday at about noon.

From there , wave 1 of another 5 wv series would start and possibly close on 12,500 or near it by the 28th.
Corrections take the form of an Elliott 5-3-5 or " A" Down "B" up, then the horrendous "C" to the lows and it usually takes the form of 5 waves.

As previously mentioned, I am expecting a high on the 23rd, probably about noon, and from there a strong dip to the 28th. this might be considered wave 1 of 5 of "C"

Dow levels remain as previously written, but could be even worse.
one other scenario
1500 = 1/3 of the drop in wv "A"
WV "B' = 600 to 750 = 13,100 to 13,250
Wv "C" = 13,250 - 2400 = 10,850
Suppose wave "C" = 2/3 then it could take out as much as 3000 pts off the 13,250 = 10,250

IF 10K is to remain a FLOOR, then that math formula could work
remains to be seen
Best wishes

Sunday, August 19, 2007

This Week

Ive complained about charts edge, but I think he may be close to this weeks action.

I was anticipating a 90 bar hit at the close Friday, but it didnt happen, thus we would then look to Monday's open, but that doesnt look like it will have any effect, but its only Sunday at 7pm as i write this.

ive also taken a look into Spt and October and heres what it looks like.
I dont do this based on maybe's an if's. there are a number of market analyses applied to my forecast.

the RANGE next week could open up to a 500 point swing an any given 2 days.
upper range fibo = 13,250
lower range 12,750
that action should carry us to the end of the month- Aug 27th is a Bradley TURN date, and its looking like a high within an intermedaite correction phase.

the intraday low spike to 12,500, an exact 10% move, and the first one in almost 5 years.
according to Erik Hadik, that move portends a 20% correction into Mid october.

Once Spt opens, we should see a dramatic continuation of the downtrend to the 19th, and or 20th in options week, same as in August. 2/3 rds of the 20% Decline = dow at 12,000
After a brief rally to the full moon on the 26th,
The Actual low should occur on oct 9th to 11th.
And 20 % would take the dow to 11,200

Hope this clears up a few things and gives us some perspective
best wishes to all


from late friday

The question now becomes, DID the FED doo enuf?
Now my answer is " IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE !!"

The markets are forcing the players to react, but UNTIL the cycle is complete, dont expect any immediate reaction.
what about Friday ? You ask, the market responded to the Fed, right? NO it was the the Fed responding to the market. Friday would have happened no matter what. The CYCLE calls for a continuation of the correction till october or even November. but more on that later.

For NOw we have to deal with making money this week. last week's low hit -343 on the 16th at 180 bars, so you can see how important that knowledge.

most of you im sure go to charts edge, and lately they have been terrible- it becomes very misleading when they show you a chart and only one day is correct.
However, there long term 3 month chart seem to be ok.

Charts edge 3 month chart shows a low around the 15th, and up toward the end of August.
NOW, heres the rub.
WIll the market move UP like they show from the 15th to the end of the month, OR
Or will the correction continue and make lower nubers next 2 weeks??
Elliott wave has the appearance of a 3rd or 3rd right now, and thus any upside within that wave is extremely limited, but where is the end? 3rds are the longest and strongest, and they can extend in time rather than spike lower in a crash like move.

My anaylsis for next week looks like this:
DOWN on Monday and Tuesday. HOW LOW is LOW ??
UP on Wed to Friday AM
Friday Down to Tuesday the 28th.
then up till the 31st.

Best wishes this week

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

WILD gyrations

I missed that change today as I was OUT of the office, and didnt get back till too late

What will tomrrow bring?
maybe the rally that fizzled today

Twice up to 90, and that failed to hold

Tomorrow's solar energy seems to be calling for an up.

Will OE bring in a short squeeze?
Supposed to be a lucky 2 days, but for whom. the bulls or the bears?

Im a little out of sync right now- maybe better in the AM
Market came off its lows at the close, and the spx futures seemed to move up also, but still -525
Some of my associates show the BERG indicator UP tomorrow, and seasonal spx was supposed to hit a low on the 8th
Bradley shows a rebond about now on both the geo, and helio charts.
Ive still got a major hit set up from the 23rd to 30th.
Best wishes

Premature buy

I may have been a little early calling Aug14th a buy, but the day should offer some wild gyrations leading to a strong upday tomorrow, and should close UP for the day today.

Thanks for the comments about my writing style.

If Im making trades, I cannot jump over here just to let you know what Im doing. Sorry

Sorry if I dont offer pretty pics and long winded explanations like most letter writers, but as traders, we need to know what we can expect the next day or two.
best Wishes

Tuesday, August 14, 2007



How about those COMPLAINTS ??
NO. guess you were'nt paying attention

-92% down volume
78 hour cycle
60 bars
Merc opposite Nptne
OBV held from about 2:30pm.

Next 78 hour cycle hits at 4pm on Aug 30-- LOG that one into the data bank

Today was a very profitable day + $5893.26

Venus strikes a trine with my friend defrocked Pluto at 9:49 am
90 bars at noon - might back them off some
126 bars at 2:30- Ditto
could get a couple good trades out of tomorrow.
Looking for STRONG CLOSE

1000 points down since July 19th - the take away occurs much faster than the buildup.
rebounds in fibo
38%= 380 pts
50%= 500
62%= 620

Friday Aug 17th next stop- everyone off the train.
OH, thats right, you have to be on the train in order to get off.
Best Wishes

Monday, August 13, 2007

Frustrating Day

They let me make $1900 today but it happenned in the last 3 minutes.

Not sure why, but I bot puts when the dow was up 75, and sold them when the dow was down 5 at
the close. All I could get out of them was 10cts. BAHH- Humbug.
I'll get you my pretties HAHAHA

Tomorrow is the day
It would appear to be well set up;

CBOE pc ratio is 1.00- NOT to much oversold, yet
SPX 500 pc ratio = 1.26 not bad either
best for last: OEX pc ratio = .84, NOW thats the one I like.
OBV dropped from about 2:30pm into the close
SPX Futures -3.81 at close
All those indicators are pointing SOUTH

Todays bar count was neet
LOW at 11am = 186 bars
Low at 1pm = 204 bars
Low at 3 pm = 30 bars

259 bars at 11am
30 more at 1pm
60 at 4pm = 320 total, and darn close to 329 which is the total of 204 and 126 = 329
Merc opposite neptune at 4>09 pm
49 trade days from June 7th = 10 wk cycle

BUY the CLOSE !!! Aug 14th;

best wishes

Sunday, August 12, 2007

Is the Sky fallling

Carl shows us PROOF, the sky is NOT falling because of the news media articles.
WELL those articles PROVE NOTHING

One of my friends laughed when i told him we could suffer another great depression.
BANKING does NOT have to be the key, NOW its Mortgages.

they also laughed at me when the dow was 1300, and I told everyone it was going to 4000

OK, dummies, KEEP on LAUGHING
I will NOW be the one taking MY MARKET winnings to the BANK.

There does seem to be a dramatic gap shown by the solar effect for Monday

EW simple view
A wave low on Aug 3
B was high on the 8th
C wave in progress
should end Tuesday at 3;30pm


Friday, August 10, 2007

Counting Bars

Counting bars does get a little difficult from time to time, but its MUCH easier than cycles which can shrink or stretch at will.
Bar counting is much more precise as it is a 3.3 day or 4.4 day function
Plus all the 60-90-180 Time points in between.

Todays 90 bar hit was at 10;30, and just as indicated the market openned lower providing an opp to buy calls. There was 2 opps to sell them at l 1:30 or 3;45

I still havent confrimed the solar effects for Monday and Tuesday, but other infleunces are pointing toward a very dramatic down day. Some of my other contacts have also written about a possible heavy decline.

Have a great week end and best wishes to all

Thursday, August 09, 2007

Bridges & Brooklyn falling

Those types of things do seem to occur during market stressful periods.

Tomorrow shows as an UP day

Today had a 90 bar hit at 4pm or it might just still occur at 9:35am, in which case would make a very good one day trade with calls or ETF's. there is also a 126 bar hit at 11;35 - 45 time zone, and would represent a secondary low and buy point.
Could get 2 good trades out of tomorrow.

I bot a few calls at the close and if lower at the open, will add a few more.

I'm saving my powder for tomorrow's close to get short. Hopefully the road map will confirm my other readings for Monday and Tuesday.

Best Wishes to ALL

Multiple choice map

My road map this week has shown multiple choices, thus the confusion

I hope and think I have eliminated the ones with the worst directions

If that is so, then the one that has proven best did show a rally yesterday.

Today does show a down daywith a gap open; DUH, thats obvious given the futures.
Tomorrow also shows a rebound

The road map doesnt have any data for Monday and Tuesday, YET, so its not confirming my previous outlook for a mjor hit, but when IT does, I will post it.

best wishes
Yes, even for the disatisfied customer

Wednesday, August 08, 2007

Thursday & friday

Thursday still looks like a high at 11:37am

I should have stayed with the original forecast for WEd was UP

The DOW lost 800 pts
62% rebound = 13,696
Might hit that tomorrow at 11:37 AM

todays low point for the day hit exactly at 204 bars at 3pm

Tomorrow has 60 bars at 1:45pm

Friday hits 90 at 9:45
Hits 126 at 12:45

Solar effect was confusing and inconsistent for WEd.

Tomorrow SEEMS more consistent, but friday has a some mixed read, but it should end lower
It didnt look that way at first but seem to be right now.

Once the high is in, they should start to reatreat in a big way, maybe even on fridya, especially at the close

Best Wishes
And that goes for the dis-satisfied customer also

Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Day to Day ???

Wednesday NOW looks LIKE it should be a down day all day.

Thoorsday looks like Up till 11:37, then down

Friday should de a down day

The BIG event looks like Monday Aug 13, and Tuesday August 14th.

Best Wishes

Getting ready

There is an Aug 15th CYCLE LOW due which should effect the market on the
13th and 14th in a big way- DOWN of course.

Rebounds always follow
but it might be somewhat short lived thru the 17th

the 23rd to 28th might also have some negative energy taking the dow lower then.


Mixed week

as indicated, today, Tuesday is mostly lower
there was a 60 bar hit at the open
90 bars hits at noon
126 bars hits at 3pm

WEd should be mixed with an upward bias

Thursday could start up, but should reverse and head lower by day's end

Friday should be the reverse of Thurs
Start down or flat and close up

Best wishes

Monday, August 06, 2007


Tuesday should reverse direction and be off all day

Wed = flat with UP bias

Thursday should TOP off and head lower after 11:37am

Friday = flat

Best wishes
including the dis- satisfied client

Sunday, August 05, 2007