It was OBVIOUS from the OBV, MACD and Ult oscilator that a rally was brewing from the 1pm low.
in the 3 oclock hour they ran up to +10. and then backed of to -26, only to runup again to +6.66, now thats a nice number
anyway, I was able to grab some puts at a price that Was In the MIDDLE of the range as I had the buy in during the last itsy bitsy runup
The SETUP is there for a decent selling day tomorrow
the MACD blue line cut through the red line
Obv dropped
Ult osc dropped,
and price just barely made it to even.
SPX is indicating a dow lower by $11.36 on a scale of 8/1
Best Wishes
Jay
5 comments:
Took out Thurs. highs. Now what?
If I may respond to your comment anonymous, in fairness to Jay, my neural pattern for todays close was bias to a RED close also. A probability of 64.8 that SPX closes RED today.
At this time (3:25pm) we can see indexes in rally mode.
I am neither swing position long or short here. System took me out at Tuesdays close.
These type of markets are often best to scalp intraday a few days points here and there.
Given the fact that most indexes are at their resistances, deviations at extreme levels, volumes not supporting rally here, 5 rsi of VIX well below 30 at time of this post, I would think that the market is on borrowed time.
On the daily SPX you will also see that the Bollinger bands are inside the Keltner, often when the Bollinger bands come back outside the keltner, we can see a big move occur. Last time we saw the Bollinger inside the keltner was this past January, we then saw what happened in February.
Most the the recent rally has been on shorts covering and a short covering rally does not a trend reverse.
As for Short interest, its been drying up. We hit a record short interest in June, then declined about on average 25% in July and as of august 15 it declined another 10 to 12 % on average.
At this rate, the shorts can not support for much longer.
Best of trades
neurotrader
Thanks Neurotrader,
UP on AIR, and the TREND is about to change in dramatic fashion.
27th bradley date is true to inversion, as is the october 13th date, but in between, not shown on the charts is 9-11, and 9-20, both signifigant dates of interest-
Jay
Hi Jay,
I'm trying to get a better understanding from your blog comments regarding wave count and standard Bradley. The 26-Aug-07 Bradley low should correspond to a turning point from a interim high down to at least 30-Aug-07. There will also be an inversion from the Bradley high of 13-Oct-07 to an interim low. However, the dates of 11 and 20-Sep-07 are significant for potential interim highs?, lows? turning points? relative to your wave count?
I may be the only person, but I just can't yet visualize from your comments what you think the path of the market may be between an interim high which is occurring now and a 13-Oct-07 Bradley high corresponding to potential market low.
Appreciate your blog ant thanks in advance for any clarification.
at this point, I am considering the OCt13th date as a very important turning point from which a strong rally can ensue.
In between the Aug 27th Inversion HIGH and oct 13th lows , I would anticipate a low on spt 4th. Even the Aug 28th outlook calls for OVER reacting to money concerns, and I would expect that to be a serious selling day.
The Fed meets on Spt 18th and its possible they wont be so friendly to the markets. thus the 19th and 20th as mid spt lows?- which could turn out to be highs IF the 17th makes a test of the 11th lows.
Spt 11th is a new moon eclipse, and the outlook calls for a possible crisis- from where or what I have no idea.
Its NOT cut and dried during Spt expect
that the trend should be down till at least the 17th.
BW
Jay
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