Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Today we had 204 bars at 1pm & the high of the day@ 2:!% dow 12992, and spx 1404.57
hit a minor low@ 3;15 , but closed heading DOWN
there is a 259 bar cycle @ 10:30, which should provide the first stopping point tomorrow.
from there, we get 126bars cycle @ @;30 pm on friday, which should offer the low of the week.
Now heres the tricky part
Monday is an 8day cycle, and Tuesday is a Bradley turn as well as an 8 day turn
WILL the 5th be a HIGH, with the 6th a TURN off the high??
Best for now
Monday, April 28, 2008
bottoms form quicly and sharply mostly on one day, maybe followed by a retest a week or 2 later- see march 10 to 17
or Nov 12 to 26 last year-2007
It looks like we go FLAT today and take a big hit tomorrow.
however, the rest of the week will probably recover and make the final failed attempt on Friday.
May 2nd has a small cluster of dates
55 tr days feb 13, a low
288 march 13, 2007, a low
144 oct 9th
Next week should offer the start of a decline thru May14th, and a retest possible on the 28th.
Best For Now
Saturday, April 26, 2008
WAS THAT IT ? now that we are banging on 1400 and gee wiz, everything looks ROSY
Or are those roses left over from yesterday
Fed minutes reported IT WILL TAKE TIME for the system to work out the kinks
BUT in the meantime, does that mean that any additional rate cuts are just frosting- NO MORE CAKE !!
Charts egde paints a glim picture for the Month of May- deos that mean spx 1400 is the barrier it NOT painted to be. I say that because Ive been reading many technicians with good systems are pasting 1400 behind us. DO I dare say it -- too many bulls???
May 6 is only 144 tr days from Oct9th
April 22 = 32 tr days from March 10th- thats 4 segments of 8
But it made a low on the Bradley date and a high on Apr25th the day b4the Apr 27th Sundaybradley date.
OEX pc ratios last 2 days are bearish
CBOE ratios are neutral
VIX @ 19.59= says its time to go the other way
Jaywiz index Tues= .16
Wed = .38
Mostly bearish overtones
The way I see it is
mostly down in May
1/2 month June up
Lows around Mid July
192 tr days = July 15th = 24 segments of 8
Sq root of 196 = 14
13.8 ^2 = 190 days
the reason I mentioned 13.8^2 is Bruce Larson brot this progression to the attention of another group. Some of you are already aware of this.
6.8^2 = Cal days, count from Oct 9th or 10th
7.8, etc and each one hits on a specific market turn date.
Best for now
Thursday, April 24, 2008
today's open is marked by the 180 bar cycle which almost is an auto prediction for a downside hit as indicated by the futures.
To repeat again
If they recover and fail, that is the 8day cycle TURN, unless it happened yesterday at 1388 spx.
IF there is no recovery today, then the next 8 day cycle high on May5th could also be the turn, instead of the 8th.
Monday's jaywiz index = .82 - considered very bullish???
Tuesday = .16 very bearish
maybe they wash out to neutral?
yesterdays Jaywiz index was a .38- consider it neutral
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Monday, April 21, 2008
Sunday, April 20, 2008
This one falls into a Zig Zag 5 - 3 - 5
That means IF the first wave breaks down into 5 waves, that is never the end of the correction, and gives a clear clue as to the nature of the zig zag in progress.
This chart shows me the WAVE from Oct10 to March 10/17 was broken down into 5 waves leading to the completion of wave "A" on March 10th. The 110 tr day count to the 17th was already pointed out in a previous discussion. oct 10 = 13 x 8 segments = 104 days = March 10
THUS we should expect a 3 wave structure in the next wave called "B" which we are experiencing right now and imo, should end on June 6th and or 9th.
Since June 7th does appear to have some significant positive harmonic grouping of astro events, imo, that might mark the top of what would be labelled as wave "B"
March 10 + 55 = june 7th
June 9th = 21 x 8 = 168 tr days
June 9 to nov 4th = 110 dys
Total = 288 which is 2 x 144
13 months x 22 days ave = 286
Wave "A" = 5 internal waves and took 5 months
Wave "B" = 3 internal waves and should take 3months
Wave "C"= 5 internal waves and should take 5 months
Wave "A" was spx loss of 300 pts from 1576 to 1276
Wave "a" of "B" might have topped on April18th at 1390, a rebound of 114 pts or fibo 38.2%
wave 'b' of "B" can drop back to a fibo level less than the previous low or as low or lower depending on various factors which only the market knows and will reveal shortly. My guess is April 28th
Wave c of "B" could reach as high as 1410 to 1425, and thats where I think June9th comes in to play.
Wave "C" should break into 5 waves as similar to Wave "A" but there are some differences. "C" waves are considered the NASTY guys- Why? you ask?
This wave should take out a fibo multiple of wave "A" usually x 1.618 = 458 pts, but that would be subtracted from 1400 giving us a closing value in Nov of spx 950.
The graph above shows OBV in the lower chart, and imo is showing inherent weakness as it is only holding onto moderate gains from the 2006 lows
Im then expecting June7th to July 25th to take out at least and equal loss to wave 1 of "A" which was 165 pts from 1576 to 1410 on Nov26th. should also = a 32 day segment.
Hope this clarifies things for you.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Where are we now, and where are we going as opposed to where we came from.
Oct 9-10th, 2007: is the main pivot
from there we count
55 trade days = Dec 27th- was a high which lead to the jan 23rd low right at 72 tr days
110 tr days = March 17th, and it was a low
165 tr days = June7th - it is shown as a high on the Bradley graph- i have no reason to doubt it.
220 tr days = Aug 26th - is equal to 29 cycles of 8
Stan Harley discovered that 377 tr days and variables of it are most prominent.
377 X 38.2 = 144 tr days = May6th also a Bradley date shown as a LOW
377x 61.8= 233 tr days = Spt 12th shown as a bradley low
We can see that May6th a potential low leads to june7th a potential high
As per bradley for now, we see it slide from June7th all the way to Spt 9th.
Go back a minute to Harleys 215.4 week cycle hitting a low on March 17th; Does that infer we go on auto pilot to new highs?? maybe, or maybe not
heres a maybe not
March 17th was 110 trade days from Oct9th
June7th is 165 tr days
It is my proposal that the March 17th low will lead to a June7th high in the spx 1400 area.
In the meantime we will see trading in the range between spx1281 & 1367 which we just saw yesterday, as well as on 3 previous occasions. feb 1- feb 27- april7, and now
SO, now that we are at the top of the range , WHEN is 1281- the bottom of it going to be seen again. Since all we have left is 7 weeks or 35tr days till June7th, its probably going to split the difference with a 17 and 34 day cycle = May 6th- whooaah, we just identifed May6th as a bradley date and 144 tr days from oct9th - ahaha, the light dawns suddenly.
what about next week? how does that fit in??
WE got a 17/34 tr day high on April16th, and tide day
Now we get next week
a grouping of hard aspects on 23 & 24th
an 8 day cycle on the 23rd and turn day on the 24th
Bradley date on 22nd, might be pivotal high
Apr 23 = 55 tr from Feb 1st a high- a potential cycle low
Apr24 = 34 tr days from March 10, ditto
26th is tide day- no effect?
heres another progression that fits in nicley
the 8 day cycles
April-11 low & 14th turn to the 16th pivot high-
notice please the spx made a lower high after a lower low on March 17th
April23 proposed low and 24th turn
may 5 low and 6th turn
June9 th and 10th turn
give a little wiggle room for slight differences on exact dates
So we can see the progression of time and we need to fit in price as we approach the main gate on june7th. If all goes as projected, june7th should end the sideways progression of wave 2 and start wave 3 down to Spt 9th.
Best Wishes to all
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
spx looks prime to test resistence at 1343 at least at the open.
what happens after seem to be a waning of spirit.
the roller coaster ride should take a dip into the 18th
run higher into the 22nd, and make another dip into the 25th
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
oex pc ratio = .77 & yesterday was .80
CBOE pc ratio = 1.06 = neutral
spx 500 pc ratio = 1.33 = neutral
Jaywiz index = .30 & yesterday was .18
Spx got up to 1338 at the open, then hit the low at 1324 @ 11:30 right on the 329 bar cycle
then played all day within a smaller range.
Tomorrow has the potential to open with the other shoe falling.
18th is the bradley date and inverted from the graph indicates a low
SPX Survived yesterday's test of 1327, a couple times, and now we are looking higher to run up to possible high @ 1343
Resistence is at the former support at 1343, and any touch of that level today would be a great selling opp
Good news about J&J coming at the right time as far as market timing- Delta merger and PPI all helping the positive
But the other shoe could fall tomorrow
Sun 0 Merc in Aries as far as astro goes seems to be providing support, as idnicated by the news items above,but it is exact @ 2am tomorrow morning
Having noted all the above what do we do next? Good Question !
Jaywiz Index =.18 and the 5day has dropped to 29.2 from a high on Apr 1st of 38.9
this should be deemed as bearish
Apr 14th was a turn date, but not neccessily a change in trend date.
The bradley date is still the 18th and it falls one day b4 the full moon which is the first to occur
after the March solstice and Ive been told it should be deemed as bearish.
1328 to 1343 is = to dow 120 and that would be a nice openning.
Can they get higher?
Possibly by noon If i look at WCA and or Charts edge or all day if I look at the SUn 0 Merc
If they get above 1343 by 10;10 am, then the next level is 1347, then 1351, but i really dont think it will happen.
This is getting too wordy and repetetive
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Since I probably wont get the chance to buy on a lower open, I wont buy at all and thats for 2 reasons
1. as mentioned already
2 . 3 sources are leading me to now look for a selling opp at 10 am on tuesday which should be more lucrative than scalping a few points on a meager 100pt dow rally
3. Now expecting most of the 15th & all off 16th to be DOWN and the next 2 spx 31.25 pt levels are 1312, then 1281.
Murrey math uses 31.25, and I mentioned price levels a few days ago
The SPX for example dropped to 1343 friday in the first hour and it found no buyers, so the next major level would have set it down to 1312 or somewhare in between. When it got to be 3;30pm, and the spx found support at 1331, that was it. HOW, you ask? watch this
1343- 4= 1339- 4= 1335-4 = 1331 bingo
or 1343 - 12 = 1331- bingo
12 is obviously 3x4 as shown
Ive been intorduced to Murrey math of which I had heard mentioned but never paid much attention to it b4.
The best i can get out of it is a progression of price levels that is prominent throughout history
1.95 , 3.90, 7.80 ,, 15.65,, 31.25, 62.50 ,, 125.00,,
In case you ddint notice, its a doubling feature
When I round it off for trading it becomes 4 spx and 8 spx points , but you can use the exact levels as suscribed by the founder.
Ive mentioned Stan Harley, another great analsyst and mathemetician who introduced me to
the daily bar cycles. he has also been the founder of the 215.6 weekly cycles , which may have rolled over and started a new trend this week.
Ive also menioned the Armstrong 8.6 year cycle which was supposed to hit on march 22nd and it may have done just that starting a new downtrend as of that date, or accelerating one in progress that began oct10th, 2007.
there was also the 500 calendar day cycle that hit a high on April1st and double topped on April7th.
I had mentioned spx 1400/1410 as major resistence, but it would appear that break was the straw that broke the camels back and it mybe some months b4 we see that level again.
I am still in the camp for a Nov 4th LOW, nothing to do with elections, just the cycle events culminate on that date.
Oct10- 2007 PLUS 144 trade days = may6th, but more imortant is 288 trade days falls on Nov 10th.
Lets come back to next week. I know thats what you want to read, even tho the other stuff is good reading, but it wont help us make any$$;
Im hoping the spx opens - 4pts to the next level to give me an opp to buy some calls
for a rally into Midday Tuesday where I would buy puts expecting a lower market on the 16th and 17th. Any rally till 1pm on the 18th will probably not hold.
Option week which usually trends in favor of the calls looks like its set against them this week.
I did mention April22nd as the 32 day segment high, but it would appear a lower high and lower lows should follow thru at least July 13th.
April22nd high +32= June 9th high + 32 = July 25th high
You can take it out as far as you want.
Best Wishes for next week
Friday, April 11, 2008
This one for example started on march 10th and ends on April22nd
March 10th was a low at dow 11,740, but where April22nd ends should be less than spx1400
Since Mrch 17th we have seen only 3 wave movements from highs to lows, thus leading me to suspect we are in a corrective rebound AGAINST the major downtrend that began Oct10th 2007.
Ok, back to present;
Todays down day which i had been calling for all week is hitting right on schedule as the 55 tr day from jan 23rd. 56 tr days is division of 8 x7 = 56 which means monday could possibly open down in the first 10 minutes only to recover and move sharply higher for the day & into mid day on Tuesday.
The bradley date ive mentioned a few times was supposed to be a low on April7th, but it was a high, and most of the bradley dates this year have been inverted to the graphs that are typically published- SO what you ask?
The next date is April18th, and According to my work, it will be a low, and thus the inversions are still working.
However, what about April 22nd?
thats where astro becomes helpfull as there is a harmonic clster of trines leading up to the morning of April22nd and or the morning of april23rd which is the 8 day segment and turn.
I hoope this makes things as clear for you as it for me;
If not please let me know, and I will explore further.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
march 5th 2007 = Low 12,050
Add 32 days
April20th, 2007 = Hi 12,961
Add 32 days
to June4th =13,676 high
Add 32 days
July 19 hi @ 14k
OK, now lets skip over to Dec 6th, 2007 a Hgh
Add 32 days
jan 23rd a low
add 32 days
march 10th, a low
add 32 days
april22nd a posible high
add 32 days
June 7th a possible high
Thats as far as i went, but you get the jist
In between some of those datesthere are dates such as April7th which was a low and May 27th is suspect of being a low before a runup into jun7th.
Note that 32 is a clean division of 8
very strong 8 day cycles evident throughout history.
Hope this clears up some mystery of stock movment
That puts the day in contention to make a low at lest in the spx 1318 range if not lower.
is 9:15 am on Thursday, and it does not look ominous at this time, but that can change.
If it goes as detailed, then Monday should be an up day with Tuesday somewhat flat, and then the 34 tr day event hits on the 16th which should be a lesser event than tomorrow.
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Todays Jawiz Index is a .30, same as yesterday
the reading for tomorrow indicates a strong open but changes later in the day
Whats that mean? the 22 day stint from March 10th low should attemtp to move up, but should end flat to lower.
That means the 11th is indicating a lower low, and the tides are inverted as they have been for about a month.
Monday Apr14 reading indicating strong upside day, but could set the stage for a decline the rest of that week.
Geez, the spx hasnt even cracked its first support level of 1343, and that means tomorrow would have to be a wildly lower day breaking that suport and heading toward 1312, the next 1/8 level.
The bradley dates are shown as April 7th with a direct line to April-18th with no change in direction in between. Well How is that going to happen if tomorrow makes a short term low??
Readings for Friday call for a difficult day and the high tide doesnt occur till midnite, so it might NOT have any effect on the day's trading.
Friday is 55 tr days from Jan 23rd intraday lows
Wed April16 is 17&34 trade days and should provide a low, but the readings for the 14th and 15th are quite positive, so how does that fit in with the bradley as mentioned above?/
SO, now you see the dilemma.
bradley says down all the way to 18th, but other data says no way.
Monday, April 07, 2008
Using the fib ratios we can expect a minum of 46 spx points to a max of 74pts loss on or before the 10th.
Thats only if the wave is making a "b" wave against the 2nd wave retracement to 1400/1410 by April22nd.
IF by some chance wave 2 is finished , then the drop could be more substantial, and might even test the previous low, but we will have to watch and see what we get the next 3 days.
As of this moment in time its 12:45 on the 7th, and the spx is attemtpting to break out above 1385, but I dont think there will be enuf volume to carry it any higher
A quick look at the market from oct10th, 2007 shows pretty much where we could be in Elliott wave terms.
I know ive mentioned this b4, but its worth revisiting.
March 17th does look like the spx at 1263 intraday did make a low of wave 1
Therefore we can only surmise that we are in a wave 2 retracement which could make it as high as 1410 where there is major - major resistence, not that they have to do that, but its out there.
Still got April10-11 on my radar for a low this week which we could guess should fit the bill for a wave "b" low giving today as wave the 'a' high- this is all educated guesswork until it actually happens. this is an 8 day cluster of low & turn dates.
Take 1382 - 1263 = 120 pts, and again thats 38.2% of the 300 pt loss from Oct10 to March 17th.
120pts X 38.2% = 46 = 1336
120 x 50% = 60 = 1322
120 pts x 62%= 74 = 1308
these are valid FIBO relationships to the levels and we have seem them all b4 in the rebound from minuette wave 3 on jan 23rd to spx1395 of minor1.
The next 8 days cycle cluster is then on April23/24th, but the actual high might occur on the 22nd.
What I think we are seeing is the formation of a three month tripple top after the Jan 23rd
lows. OR the formation of an ABC rebound from March 17th. IF april22nd does offer the "c" wave high at 1400/1410, then the next move AFTERWARD should start wave 3 down to its major objective lows by May 28th.
Best for Now
However, we now see April 8th as a potential Bradley High thus leading to the next Bradley date of April27th as a low.
Now shown on most charts is an up blip from the 8th to an unposted date, which in my outlook is targetted as April22nd, and should be a high.
March had 3 dates as well- 8th -18th &26th
We now know which ones were inverted as shown and not exact
March 10th was a low, not the 8th as a high
March 17 was a low, not the 18th
march 26 as a high became march 24th, then marched higher to April 1st, now closer to April8th expecting today April7th to be the high date.
So whats next?
Heres my dates
April10, and or 11th should mark a 55 tr day low
Arpil22nd should turn in a high
April27th should show up as a low, but May 28th should be a much more important low
best for now
Friday, April 04, 2008
Heres a shot of gold parabolic just like the 1980 highs, and you can easily see what followed that first high @ the 850 level.
Are we going to see the same thing until 2020 or are the fundamentals different for the drive up this time?
This time we world wide expasnion, especially in China, India, and other nations buying up gold, so its more spread out than before. however, the 378 months that it took for 1976 to now is way over due for a lengthy correction. Any fibo part of 377 x38.2% = 144 months =12 years, or any other part.
Since the 2 waves are so similar, we could extrapolate time from the previous wave to see where lows might occur so we can be ready to buy.
From the March 10th low, it does appear the ELLiott wave may have done a 3-3-5 to April-1st high.
If so, then the next wave is a serious decline starting the next downard phase this year.
Most prominent dates for low are April-11th & May 6th
I did mention May 6th b4, but here it is again
its 18 cycles of 8 trade days from oct10-11th last year;
that may not be anywhere near the end of it either.
take a look at April2000 and you will see how the current market looks just like it did then.
Also look at 2001which looks even more similar to 2008, getting ready to take the spring time collapse seriously;
If you think for one minute, the market cares about when the FED has done to prevent further declines, you are sadly mistaken.
Remember when I posted a GOLD TOP, within 3 days the POG fell nearly $100, and is now trading under $900 with a lot lower levels to come. The current rise from 255 to 1015 emulates the rise in 1980 to the first high of 850, and it took 18 years to sort that out at the 1999/2000 low.
329 bar cycle on April2nd @ 3pm
30 B cycle @ 11am on Apr3rd
102 bar cycle on April4th @ 10:30 was right on target
126 B @ 12;30
156b @3pm or 160B @ 3;30- hard to know which is viable.
Fascinating that the May28th date is 22 x 8 = 176 tr days and is the Bradley date.
best for now
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Other tech data indicates a down day today
90 bars hits @ open tomorrow
might be a low for the day, but I think it might last a little longer- maybe noon
Bradley date of 8th now looking like a low, but April11th still has a spot on my radar
Best for now
Wednesday, April 02, 2008
No disrespect meant to those who work in the media, they get caught up in the hype.
April11th is a target date that many have proposed as either an important high or low.
Yesterday went up a little further than I would have thought, but it changes nothing.
A bottom of importance will only be seen when the media is crying out- NO BOTTOM Yet!!
It still looks like wave 1 on march 10th, Wave 2 may have completed yesterday, or call it an X or B wave. In either case, the next wave should take the dow well below the March 10th low of 11,740.
those who point toward April11th as a high are forgetting options week right after which for the most part is usually a positive week, but thats not the main reason why.
JaywizIndex = .25 following a .37 yesterday indicating some weakenss today; Other scientific data also indicates lower this week thru mid day on Friday for now.