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Monday, February 28, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -This Weeks - POWER DATA Graph

2:40Pm
This graph seems to imply positive energy till Thsday

There seems to be an energy shift on Thsday after 11am, which could lead to lower levels by Fri, but might not break under 1300 imo. the NEW moon can be more of a downer than full moons and there is one on Friday at 3:47pm

This graph is consistent with the Month of March energy graph
Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -Feb 28th CLOSING report

2:30pm

This is LATE coming - Had to take care of some other Biz today

Mkt seems to be responding exactly opposite to the psych read for early bumps and better later

One of my associates called for a turn at 1pm and it did just that, but he HOD so far was at 10:30am

2;10Pm was some mild neg energy and the spx bounced off 1320, but didnt go very far after.

Dumped shorts bot Friday afternoon for small loss, but the last 2 trades were still very profitable

Just as Surmised- TOO MANY BEARS jumping on the band wagon looking for a serious down day.

Power data graph next page

Jay
4pm- SPX graph above matches today's energy, but not the power data

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next - Energy GUIDE - March 2011


Bradley Dates are March 10th & 18th

There are no more Bradley dates till MAY 20th

Psych this week
Monday =  Distractions, and early bumps - better tonight
Tuesday = WELCOME CHANGES
Wed= blue moods & dimmer than yesterday
Ths= Better outlook today
Fri= Idealistic

Will publish the POWER DATA for this week later
Jay

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -WEEKEND Report


Most of my ELLIOTT friends seem to be expecting the mkt to drop well
under the low on the 24th at 2pm of 1294,
BUT
Another possibility does exist-- 
IT IS POSSIBLE And very likely we will ONLY see a drop back to 1294 and nothing MORE

BEARS love to SCREAM for MORE, but IT does NOT look that way.

Beyond FEB 28th, the ENERGY pattern is VERY POSITIVE from March 1st to 10th.

Jay

Friday, February 25, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -Feb 25th Closing Update

8:15 AM Friday Feb 25th


COMMENTARY 8:15am FEB 25th


IMPACT Stream above shows that STRENGTH has improved thus we see SPX Futures pointing to a higher open at 8:15 prior to GDP report at 8:30am

WE closed out shorts EXACTLY at 2pm Yesterday right on the 60 bar cycle and the LOD

Expect rebound of 23% to 38% of 49 pt loss off the 1344 highs to 1294 lows
Looks like 5 waves MIGHT have completed to 1294 yesterday and now looking for wave 2
wave 2 rebound --
23% x 49 = 11 pts  --SPX to 1305, already done
38% x 49 = 18 pts -- spx  to 1312 very likely

High energy peaks at 12:05pm today or between 11 am and 1pm
Psych read says  that Losses replace gains
Today should end lower

Jay
10:15 UPDATE
System wont allow me to add info to the above pic
BUT we can see the IMPACT STREAM is beginning to WANE at 10am.
We still have an energy peak due at noon, so I will wait till the noon hour before possibly re-shorting
Jay
NOON HOUR update
IMPACT STREAM recovered exactly as did the mkt, and now we wait to see what happens next.
Jay

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -Feb 24th Closing report

8:45 Am

Today's Psych = ANGER & Frustrations
EMPLOY report NON event-
Activity index at a low ebb at the 66 level at 9am
Impact stream also showing a low ebb

Yesterday's low hit at 1;30 , a little after 228 bars, actual at 234 bars ,
just 6 bars over, but still within normal cycle limits

today's open low at 10am = 270 bars since 258 bars at 3;30 was a non event.
which translates into a similar delay today.
Today's bar low should be DUE at 60 bars @2pm, but COULD OVER RUN to 3pm

Friday
39 hours at 10am could be a strong turn, high or low, cant say yet. but 90 bars hits at 10am.
WILD roller coaster ride today- EMOTIONAL gains only
EXPECT EARLY OVERSOLD gains to be REPLACED by LATE LOSSES


MONDAY
POWER DATA shows a PLUNGE on the 28th

EXPECT strong rally from March 1st to 10th
Social & Political issues appear to be making resolutions
Jay
3;30 pm update
NOTE the IMPACT Stream above, and the DIP at 2pm with the recovery
afterwards matching the mkt
Jay
EKG PERFECT SCORE and now at 80% for the YEAR 2011

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -Feb 23rd AM Report

published at 8:09 AM
Positive energy at 9:40am should support a higher open
Today calls for caution and warns to exercise restraint
Jay

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -Feb 22nd Closing update

FANTASTIC -

Difficult & Demanding day
258bars at 3;30pm

Jay
Noon update
ITS VERY EASY TO FORGET that SEVERAL Times I wrote that NOTHING would happen until FEB 17th, but that actual was Feb 18th due to the full moon,
And Ive also mentioned a pivot low on the 24th for this thsday.
****
The MOST important date this year will be MARCH 18th, the next full moon is the 19th. The Psych for that moon indicates feelings of vulnerability & worry. Its also a Bradley date  
Jay
2;30pm update--
Now that we are having the biggest sell off since last August - can we say that there has been a real CHANGE ? of not
Using 40 spx pts as a rule of thumb which weve discussed many times, my calls for 1300 spx was partly based on the rule. 1343 -40 - 1303
BUT If we break 1300 either today or tomrrow, then we might see another 40 pts to 1263 by Late Thsday or Friday am.
I love the way CNBC calls this sell off a reaction to Libya and the Mideast- I guess they have to tell the people what they want to hear- BUT the mkt could have sold off anytime in the last 3 weeks, BUT IT DIDN'T - its selling off now as previously projected, and as shown by the published energy guide.
Jay



Monday, February 21, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -WEEKEND Report

Jaywiz INDEX closed at .19, the LOWEST value we've seen for a while indicating
SELLING pressure should appear on Tuesday, but the power data graph is not
showing that its very bearish.



ENERGY data for next week appears much more bearish than the POWER DATA graph
Jay

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next- 1st Qtr -2011 projection

Still looking fairly good overall
the trend this year does not show any declines as yet, as the SPX above
in 1995, the GOVT shut down which I dont remember did not have any effect on stocks
but will that be the same outlook this year???

Jay

Friday, February 18, 2011

Alphie - Feb 2011

SO FAR THIS IS LOOKING VERY GOOD THIS MONTH  



Market Timing-Whats Next -Feb 18th Closing Report

90 bars at 2;30
Neg energy @ 2:30pm
Bradley date Feb 17th= yesterday

Jay
4pm update - WE GOT the above dips right on target, but as far as a 300 pt Dow drop
that has to wait for possibly the 24th.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -Feb 17th AM Report


Today is a Bradley turn & Full moon tonight which has a tendency to support the mkt

It looks like the EKG agrees with the week's power/energy graph and shows one more attempt
to rebound to new highs, but it does look like this one should fail and make much lower numbers tomrrow as originally projected.

Psych today calls for unsteady- unstable confusion & opposition

Tomrrow's  read is ISSUES continue cloudy, and expect clashes

13hours at 10 am a rebound spx1335 off the open low 1331
Will that be the HOD??

258bars at 12:30, might allow a later high at mild pos energy @ 2:40pm

more later
Jay

FULL MOON at 3 am tonight - God only knows whats coming after

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

SO FAR the above graph has done well this week

Market Timing-Whats Next -Feb 16th CLOSING report

EKG did CATCH the SWINGS TODAY, & Psych reading for mid day recovery was also good 
IM not sure I agree with the above, but the EKG still has a 78% positive & accuracy record, so even if its only partly correct, the mkt should respond
150bars @ 11am
Neg enrgy at 11am


Impact stream is too fragmented to publish the chart
Activity index is at a low ebb at the 100 level, not very powerful.

We did see just how good that index is on Monday when it ran up from 66 to over500
and the mkt recovered from its early lows

Jay
4pm- SAME OLD QUESTION  --  ARE WE THERE YET ???

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -Feb 8th Closing report

IMPACT STREAM as of 9:30am
Neg energy at
9:53am
3:44pm

60bars @ 10am
126bars at 3;30 could be the lod

Activity index ran UP over 500 yesterday, and has since plunged back to 100
Jay
4pm comments -Perfect EKG today, but I would have liked some deeper selling;
1333-8=1325 at 10:30 & 2:30
3;44 was a low but not the lod
Tomrrow Psych calls for Morning blockages, and mid day recovery

Monday, February 14, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -Feb 14th Closing Report


WE can see very clearly that the IMPACT STREAM is rather FLAT this AM as is the SPX futures at 8:30am.
EKG shows a high mid day and that could occur anytime between noon and 3pm

258bars /21 hour cycle occurs at 11:30,
but there is some mild neg energy at 12:47pm
which could delay any upward lift until after 1pm.


Psych for today is moodiness & challenging

Jay
TODAY's EKG counts only as PARTIALLY CORRECT
drops the record to 78.5%

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next - FEb 14-18 Energy Track



Sunday noon- I reconfigured the SIZE of the chart
The 2 most CRITICAL bearish points this week appear to be 
Tuesday at 3:44pm
&
Friday at 2:22pm
MY Anticipated trading strategy this week
SO, based on the above chart - I will be looking to short twice. 
1st on Tuesday at open to 10am @ the 39 hours cycle, cover at 3:44pm
2nd on Thsday at 2:30 to 3pm, cover at 2;22pm

Just an experiment and we will record how this works out.
I have not traded in months

Psychological readings for next week

Monday =  Challenging- Mood & Defensive
Tuesday = Mixed trends,  disillusions @ 3:44pm
Wed= Am blockage, but mid day recovery
Ths = unsteady, erratic Am, Confusion - POS energy at 2:40pm
Fri= Clouded issues & Shakeups, Clashes, & Drawbacks @ 9am & 2;22pm
       & 90 bars at 2:30 reconfirms neg energy & cycles converge
       Full Moon on 18th, but at 3:36 AM, thus the 17th hang up

From the LOW of the 18th, expect a rebound into the 23rd, but more on that later as the 21st should still be somewhat sloppy till the noon hour.

Jay

Friday, February 11, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -Feb 11th Closing Report

At 2:30PM the IMPACT Stream seems to indicate the days highs will not survive.


EKG shows a weaker open, and the IMPACT stream shows WHY as SPX futures are set for a lower open today-

156BARS looked like it hit just prior to close yesterday as the mkt bounced off a low right near close, but now we see that it is most likely going to occur at open
180bars @ 11:30am
228Bars at 3:30pm
Activity index is also at a low ebb and has been at 100 all night

There is some mild positive energy this afternoon which might mitigate the day's market wekaness

Strong high energy this weekend could be supporting markets for now

Next week's lack of strength should be more apparent as a turn is due on the 17th, a Bradley date
and there is a strong neg energy effect on the 18th. I had been considering the 17th as the first TURN LOWER, but Im altering that view and as of Monday, we might just see the FIRST real opp to get short thru FRIDAY's neg energy.

More Later
Jay 8:55am Feb 11th

I would like to type this under the SPX chart, but the system wont let me
4pm REPORT
I reviewed the EKG from JAN 1st and we are NOW at 81.5% accuracy - 
and the ones that missed were only partially incorrect except for one last week on the 8th.


2;30pm-HOORAY for EGYPT - A step head in the right direction -- Market HIGH right at 11am
Jay

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -Feb 10th Closing Daily GUIDANCE

A LATER Update of A MORE COMPLETE DAY'S activity SHOWS A MUCH MORE SIMILAR picture to todays action - Maybe I need to publish a NOON update which seems to show the close with more detail. - I'll consider it if time allows.

just as projected Today looks LOWER and should last ALL DAY

Impact stream also shows potential for lower morning

90bars at 10:30am
120bars at 1pm
150bars at 3;30


AND 156 bars at open tomrrow could offer an opening dip
Today calls for ADVERSE trends and powerful struggles

Jay
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Jay

Wednesday, February 09, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -Feb 9th Closing EKG Report

DAMN GOOD EKG TODAY- Caught most of the day's action today
  Impact stream Shows LATE comeback

Today calls for a lower open
258bars at 9:30 to 10am
13hours at 10am

Positive energy after hours should keep this afloat today
but tomrrow and friday might be the first time we get to see some bearish teeth
this year
Jay

AS projected, the EKG did QUITE WELL TODAY
258 Bars at open HIT The OPEN DIP
60bars at 2:30, actual low at 2:45 ALSO HIT the LOD

Lower tomrow but it wont be a straight line
Neg energy at 1:27pm 
& part of Friday - NO Harmony till after noon


Jay

Monday, February 07, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -Feb 8th closing Report


Slight changes at the END of the day - 228bars at 3pm could be lod

The reading for the day calls for LOST FOCUS after mid day = noon

Jay
That CERTAINLY did NOT go as PROJECTED - NO late afternoon sell off
Impact Stream showed it precisely, but really has no predictive value