Friday, February 25, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -Feb 25th Closing Update

8:15 AM Friday Feb 25th

COMMENTARY 8:15am FEB 25th

IMPACT Stream above shows that STRENGTH has improved thus we see SPX Futures pointing to a higher open at 8:15 prior to GDP report at 8:30am

WE closed out shorts EXACTLY at 2pm Yesterday right on the 60 bar cycle and the LOD

Expect rebound of 23% to 38% of 49 pt loss off the 1344 highs to 1294 lows
Looks like 5 waves MIGHT have completed to 1294 yesterday and now looking for wave 2
wave 2 rebound --
23% x 49 = 11 pts  --SPX to 1305, already done
38% x 49 = 18 pts -- spx  to 1312 very likely

High energy peaks at 12:05pm today or between 11 am and 1pm
Psych read says  that Losses replace gains
Today should end lower

10:15 UPDATE
System wont allow me to add info to the above pic
BUT we can see the IMPACT STREAM is beginning to WANE at 10am.
We still have an energy peak due at noon, so I will wait till the noon hour before possibly re-shorting
NOON HOUR update
IMPACT STREAM recovered exactly as did the mkt, and now we wait to see what happens next.


Abdullah said...

We were at 12,391 on 2/18. Yesterday we hit 11,998 briefly. So let's call it 400 points we've lost in a week. In rough terms that' s about a 3.1% drop.

Is that enough? Was that all the correction we get? I'm not convinced yet. We just fell 3 days in a row, and historically after 3 down we get 1 up. My best guess is that we put in a flat day today, and maybe some green on Monday, but we fall back again next week.

Abdullah said...

Okay, so we're going to open green. Are we really going to roar higher and close big and green on a Friday, with the Middle East still in disaster mode? Again, anything is possible, but I'm having a hard time digesting that. Maybe everyone else on the planet is braver than I... But I personally don't want much more exposure. I'll be very happy to just carry what I have and see if they really do run us next week.

Abdullah said...

looking for close -/+ 50

we still have ~3% DOWN we could get it Monday

worm said...

What size of plunge you think for Monday? I am trying to figure out the rally that you anticipated from 3/1-3/10. Retest yesterday's low or slightly below it or 1250/1260 level that you previously estimated?


Reza said...

looks like plunge to 1310. Then rally to 1357

Reza said...

Instead focus on buy the dip on Mon, and ride until 4th. 4th Gov shutdown, if extended for 2 weeks takes it to 18th area, then short the pig at 138.06

Reza said...

Oil, silver and gold still looks appealing

Jay Strauss said...

Hard to say from where to where as far as price levels
I work better with time - but we can look at wave equality to guess.

Mondays decline will be countered by a HUGE OPEN MONDAY which should hold all day

Get ready to BUY the CLOSE Monday
they WONT give Us another chance after


Jay Strauss said...

Original CALL for LOW on 24th was precise at 2pm

Next is MONDAY decline
then Tuesday Violent rebound