unlke the 2000/2001 market which took 15months, the 1998 deal fell in a few months as this market appears destined to do.
Tuesday's and Wed readings are difficult at best to define.
However, It does look like they are destined to open MUCH lower and continue lower all day till the 329 bar count at 2:30pm.
From there, it is possible,
Still got he 40-45 day cycle in effect which runs from the 24th to the 29th
Stan Harley has mentioned the 24th quite often as an almost absolute date fro the 40/42 trade day low off Nov 26th and the previous lows in his sequence.
However, that break of the MCOS pennant, plus the waning effect after the Jupiter 120 Saturn seems to make the timing stretch out to the max which is the open on Tuesday Jan 29th till about 10am
We havent seen a market like this since 1998, and thus we are struck because we still expect those incredible rebounds at every dip. This time it will wait till its really over. thats what a head & shoulders pattern does- reverts back to the start, and some have posted charts showing spx values in the 1100 area.
Best Wishes
Jay
3 comments:
Using a Line Chart, which filters out alot of noise, I count 150 SPX points from neckline to Apex of H&S pattern. I measure neckline @1405 on this chart. 1405-150= 1255 Also, 150*1.618=242; Subtract 242 from 1518 B wave top(on line chart)and this targets 1276. 1255-1276--that's where I think we get support--unless of course... ;)
Good trading
Jay,
I'm using rational thinking here, but the markets are acting irrationally, so this could really snowball like you say. With foreign markets down as much as 10-15% in two days, I really don't what to think. Logically, I can find only one instance where the monthly SPX candle significantly penetrated a RISING Lower BB--1962. IOW, before things got really nasty in 73-74 & 2000-2003, we bounced off a rising Monthly BB. Also, I've got a Monthly Trendline from 1982 low thru 2003 low that stops @1275, so let's see if our traders are more rational than those overseas at these levels. I have my doubts looking overseas. Great call on your part!
Good luck
Jay,
so far my analysis has worked; but unfortunately, my emotions did not allow me to trade my convictions...oh well. Many stocks that bounced (retail, housing, etc) are hitting downtrend lines, so this might be it for awhile. Bought SRS at the close @108.
Steve
Post a Comment