Bar cycles

So, NOW we see for real the power of bar cycles

What's next week ?/ Hurricane Gustov, and Hanna- what a pair, hope they blow away

Next week might start out a little sloppy, but thats OK with me as it offers an opp to buy some calls at reasonable prices b4 they blast off- Yes thats right BLAST OFF !!

Spt 4th has the best chance of TOPPING and making a HIGH of the month.

Spx got to 1300, and the goal is NOW 1312.

Then 1343 is the next M-Math level. But i doubt we will see that #.

Jay

SPX 1300

Now there's a number that should draw a response.

I know I posted that spx level as a potential peak level, but I thought it would come next week. Are we still on track for a Spt 4th High? YES, we are.

However weve got a tough new moon Saturday,and Gustov still heading at the Oil rigs for the wkend:

Hmmmn, has anyone else ever noticed, we get hit by hurricanes when the mkts are making LOWS, or am I alone with that observation?

Even tho, my scientific observations seemed to point toward a sell off today, we got a decent rally instead, BUT what does that say about tomorrow. Friday is the day after a fibo grouping, and facing a new moon indicating that we should keep secrets-
Strange also that ANYTIME, i get a reading that says we should keep secrets, the mkt plunges, and the reverse when the reading calls for NO secrets.

the PC ratios indicate selling tomorrow
Jaywiz index has become a little unreliable lateley.
Midnite lows and highs have been off by a day at times and this might be one of those times.
My friend, Coy Morphew, reports the futures and his pather indicates a down day.

126 bars cycle @ 11:30, an AM low
156 bars cycle @ 2pm afternoon low
Now the big event I mentioned b4 is 180 bars which WILL STRIKE at the OPEn tomorrow and in 15 minutes or less could wipe out more than 50% of today's gains and continue to head lower till the MAIN 258 BAR CYCLE @, yep you guessed it (( 4pm))

Now in this case we would expect the 4pm cycle @ 258 bars to hit exact rather than on Tuesday AM.
What does that say about Tuesday? I mentioned it b4, we should see a very strong day on the heels of a major drop in oil prices. Remember FEAR is worse b4 the event as we expect the worse , but will rejoice when its over.

Best for now
Jay

OIL

What garbage- Oil down 3.00 and the MEDIA wants to attribute that drop to Gustov NOT threatenning the oil rigs- HEY guys that storm is still 4 days away- what chustpa to attribute a price drop to such a nothing rumor.

Today is a confuence of fibo cycles and a 9 day turn which means things should go the other way tomorrow, and possibly in a big way, especially if the mkt gives up most of its gains later today.

there is a 180 bar cycle @ 4pm which frequently influences the next day open and if you remember last month we had a 60 bar open and the dow was off 130 in the first 10 minutes, & tomorrow this might show a repeat of that type of event.

Jay

Right on schedule

high @ 2;45 today hit right on schedule

Tomorrow could open with a THUD @ 90 to 102 bars

Tonight has merc 90 pluto @ 9:35 pm and a VERBAL war could erupt- somewhere- most likely Russia & US or Iran. Or we might be surprised by someone's speach tonight
waging verbal war on republicans.

Gustov charted for New Orleans- just when we were getting a break- Remember I posted gas prices to get to 3.50, i just paid 3.62- buts thats all she wrote> Grr.

Expect a low on Friday, maybe extending to 1pm, then a late recovery.

28th is midnite low and at 6am the next morning, we get Venus 90 pluto;
venus in Virgo make her very picky & insecure

When Gustov passes BY New Orleans with little or no damage to OIL supply, watch it PLUMMENT next week, and stock prices exlode up on Tuesday

Jay

cross currents

Today has the potential to rally, but cycles are still weak, and any rebound today should be short lived.

the 28th is a low tide day and venus 90 pluto will have its negative effect.

8:30am
Europe is recovering some from its intraday lows, and FTSE is now Up 30 pts
Durable goods report bumped the futures Up

Thursday Aug 28 is an 8 day cycle and its looking like it will be a LOW
that makes Friday a 9 day TURN and Im still expecting a lower open with a revocery

Next week's highlighted event is Spt 4th with a SUN 120 jupiter @1:42pm followed by a couple of lunar sextiles also positive energy. Should be the HIGH of month

Often, we find labor day putting in an important high or low, and this year is no excpetion
Jay

Aug 26

today was 55 june 6 which was a down 300 pt day

Tomorow is 110 march 19th which was a closing low other than the intraday low on march 17

jaywiz index = .33 neutral to negative bias

If a rally at the open, i will buy puts and wait till noon to sell and 2pm to buy calls

Cycles still calling for a lower day tomorrow

SPX 1259 should hold, but if not then 1255 is next level to watch.

Jay

Monday Aug 25th
Cycles are pointing DOWN and could start with a SLUMP.
Needless to say this was a big $$ day

180 bars struck at 3pm, and offered the LOD

Tuesday might start with a moderate rally, but Mid day offers the BUY for the HUGE rebound on the 27th.

204bars @ 10:30
228Bars @ 12:30
258 bars @ 2pm

I think that 12:30 will offer the LOD;

More $$ will be made on the rebound.

Jay

September 2008

A low on August 8th should lead to a high on Spt4th

From there a deeper low could be possible for the end of Spt which could possibly set the stage & start a mild rising trend thru March or April of 2009

Jay

Monday Aug 25th

Cycle are pointing down for the day and could start with a slump at the open.

Still got Tuesday for big Up

Wed peaking

Thursday much lower

friday starts lower , and should recover some

Jay

Friday Aug 22

looks like a big open

may not last all day, but could drop and recover by days end

Opposite of Yesterday

Monday offers a sloppy day, and one where you should be cautious and little will go right.

Tuesday promises a day of extravagance including stock prices

Wed - more of the same but could turn mid day and head lower

Thurs & friday head for the new moon and a low tide, so do look out for a possible new low for the month.

Jay

stealth rally

the 130 pt rally came off a 100 pt down open.

My cycle work was mixed today and the result is what you saw happen.

Jaywiz index is now somewhat bearish @ 26
PC ratios are neutral to bearish

heres a few things to take not of.

Oct 9 to Aug 15 = 216 tr days = 27 segments of 8
May 19 to july 15 = 39 tr days
July 15 to Spt 9 = 40 tr days = A bradley date
Spt 9 to Nov 4th = 40 tr days

Aug 22nd has a high tide
But the cycle has turned DOWN

Jay

Wheres that rally ?

Its 2:45 pm on WEd Aug 20

Got a false start today high @ 11am

150 bars @ 10am
204 bars @ 2:30- I would like to see that low HOLD at the close

Tomorrow has the astro look of a potential big Up day till 1pm

Jay

Wed Aug 20

Its now 8:30 AM on WEd Aug 20

Most of my research indicates a solid Upday today

Jaywiz index Mon = .56
Tues = .47

OEX , PC & SPDR ratios also bullish readings

84.5 hr cycle HIGH @ 11am TOmorrow

yesterday's 126 bar cycle low was due at 2:45 and looks like it hit @ 3:15- within the margin of allowed cycle time stretch.

Jay

update

Its now 2pm on Tuesday Aug 19th;

Lows hit at 10:23 at the Lunar mars 180

Also hit a low @ 12:30 on the 102 bar cycle

Now expecting 126bars cycle @ 2:45 and that might be the LOD

A rebound from there should carry them up till mid day on Wed, and from there its pretty much biased lower till 11:15am on Friday

best wishes
Jay

Has there been a trend change?

friday was an 8 day HIGH
Today is a 9 day TURN

next 8-9 day grouping is the 28/29th

HIGH energy levels are upon us today and it looks like they abate tomorrow

just what that means for stock prices remains to be seen.

Today is also 216 tr days from Oct 10th, and should /could offer a CHANGE in trend.

Best for now
Jay

Still on the upswing

Preliminary indications for a Monday high are still posible

If we get a spurt at the open, it could offer the best shorting opp in 2 weeks.

Jaywiz index shows .15 and lowest value in 2 wks

Gold dropping, Oil and commodities all making lower numbers, and should continue this week - we need lower gas prices. $3.50 or lower would be ok for now, and lower later.

Friday was an 8 day high, making Monday a 9 day TURN which should make for a WEd low
Still got potential for Aug 22nd TOP which may or may not be higher than spx1312. Several attempts to break out are common when you get intermediate uptrends. Many still expect the july 15th low to be tested, and thats my lead for the next paragraph.

My19th high @ 13,000, and spx 1440
Jly 15th LOW was 40 trade days and Dow 11,000 with spx @ 1200

There was an NYSE record of 1304 new lows that day- so we should be watching NOW for a lower SPX, NYSE low with LESS new lows for the day in order to say we have seen the BOTTOM. IF there is a lower low with MORE new lows, then we havent seen the bottom

Spt9th is the next important Bradley date and is coincidentally 40 trade days from July 15th

Add another 40 trade days from there takes us to Nov 4th, AH yes Election day and Ive mentioned it several times over the past few months as having a grouping of tough aspects occurring on the 3rd and 4th.

At the Spt 9th date, there is a large grouping of MIXED aspects on Sun the 7th , 8th and 9th which dont appear
to be abundantly negative, thus I think it would be prudent to consider that date a high. In between, however, as mentioned above we have a possible high on Aug 22nd, and now we are thinking a low on Spt 3th with potential rebound to the 9th.

All in All the Fall usually is a tough time for stocks, and with an election upon us accompanied by some very difficut aspects, I would venture to say we should not expect anything in the way of a strong rebound until after nov 4th. In other words, another rebound such as July 15 TO Aug 11th is not expected, but a NEITHER is a CRASH


Best for Now
Jay

NOW WHAT ?

OK, they got to 1312 on monday at about 2pm
5 days Arms = 87.4 indicating a short term sell
5 day trin = 437 - Ditto
10 day trin = 968 Ditto
P/C ratios neutral

July 15 low to Aug 11 high = 18.5 days
July 15 to Aug 22 = 28 days
28 days less 18.5 days = 8.5 days

1/2 of that = 4.25 days
Aug 11th at 2pm + 4.25 days = friday @ 4pm

It appears we got a rebound from the low which = wave "A"
guessing that we will have a 3 wave structure of A-B -C

Where's "B "going??

240 pt loss X 50% = 120
1200 + 120 = 1320, Ok we got to 1312, close enuf
120 pt gain from July 15 x
38.2% =46 which carries out to 1266
50% = 60 1252
61.8% = 74 1238

So, we have a range of 1238 to 1266 by friday Aug 15th.
where does that make numbers for the week after? good question.
August 22 nd should find the market ending at 1340 area which could offer a 600 to 800 pt dow rally that week. Astro is lite and positive that week.

Best for now
Jay

Thanks for the encouragement

Weve mentioned the math b4 and here it is again

SPX 1440 -1200= 240 X 50% = 120
spx 1200 + 120 = 1320
its also 3 divisions of 40 pts

Same with Dow
14000 - 11,000 = 3000
50% retracement = 12,000

Will we get there on Tuesday?

If Monday drops UNDER well under 1280, then any rally on Tuesday might not make it, but the reading I have is quite positive.
1320-40 = 1280, and yes its that simple

Ive added a 5 day ave to the Jaywiz index, and it is at historical highs measured against the past
FEb 26 = 47.5
Apr 1st = 38.9
May19 = 35.6
Now = 48.7
After Feb 26th, the dow fell 1000 pts into May10th. - just 8 days

Eclipse such as this wkend can go either way but usually accentuates the most current trend
and the solar eclipse on the 1st was within a decline trend.

Best for now
Jay

RE Group

ive taken some time to re analyze why last week was so bad for me, and I think Im back, but we'll see next week

The Jaywiz index of 1.10 on wed should NOT have been pushed aside as it became obvious as the day progressed on Friday

Some of my data was mixed and thus I could not be sure of my projections

NOW here's what we have:

Jaywixz index = .84 and is also indicating another Upday, but not neccesarilly on Monday

Monday opens with a 90 bar cycle, and the futures did close lower friday- we can see what they read tonight at 6pm EST. the 90 bar cycle means a SHARPLY LOWER OPEN, and the readings for the day are quite negative.

SO, any rebound off Monday should occur on tuesday which has a much more positive reading

But from there Im expecting a strong sell off into OE on friday

The absorption level on Friday was a 7
and the reading for today is 17, which indicates selling

Ive still got some conflicting data, but Im still going to project a lower day monday.

Best for Now
Jay
PS, its amazing how your comments are totally lacking during the 2 weeks I nailed the market, but I miss one day and someone is ready to fade my work.

Friday Lower

most of my data prefers a lower day on friday, and for now Im sticking with that game plan.

90 bars cycle @ 4pm

today hit highs at 1pm, and the rest of the day was lower
3pm @ 258 bars , thus start a new cycle.

Since the market dropped lower AFTER the 258 bar cycle, it means to me LOWER.

8th is the open ceremony of the Olympics on 8-8-2008 : add the digits = 8
8 is Saturnian in nature , but represents good fortune for Chinese people.

Jaywiz index yesterday = a whopping 1.10, and today =.52

The last time we watched a build up we got big days on 29, & 30th

Im going to get into position on Monday for a HUGE one day rally on Tuesday, and again on Thursday, but maybe not as strong.

IF you remeber what I wrote WAY BACK when, I projected a HIGh at the August 16th ECLIPSE and thats just what we will get.

Dow High 14,000 - Low @ 11K = 3000 pts
50% = Dow 12,000
Can it be that simple? yes it can.

spx1200 + 120 = 1320, and ive mentioned that several times last week.
thats also a 50% retracement

But watch out afterward as rumors are spreading around the web for possible terrorist actions in the next few months at malls, airports, sports stadiums, etc. and reaction by the US military. In Israel, a discarded valise is cause for alarm by every citizen but here it might even get stolen by some shmuck thinking its got a $mil in it.

Nov 4th - has Saturn 180 Uranus & Mars square neptune & venus Square uranus & Venus Square saturn
those combinations are very severe, and very unfriendly to human behavior, so theres NO telling what will happen on or near Election day

Best for now
Jay

Wed game plan

I think Im going to stick with my original assesment of WEd and Thurs

Which means short a higher open (buyputs) and sell at 3pm

Same for Thursday, or maybe hold for friday @ 3pm- I dont like to hold overnight anymore, but this time it might be ok.

Jay

Wed Aug 6th

Wed Aug 6th is a midnite HIGH TIDE DAY, which means the day should close on its highs

Its also a MAJOR convergence day with Multpile fibo and other cycle convergences

However, the Afternoon at 2:50pm has some heavy duty astro that can back stab anyone's rally.

Some of the data i have indicates a possible LOWER open, rally till about 1pm, then a sell off into that 2:40-3pm time zone and a huge rebound in the last hour.

We are at spx1284 NOW for the 4th time in a month since the July15th LOWS. 1291.17 was the HOD previously THUS any break above that with volume could get the SPX to 1320; Gee, I did mention that number last week.

SO, If I dont go long, then Ive got to hold out and buy puts on the close or wait for the open on Thursday.
Today i sold out early, but Im satisfied with the results.

I might have to sit this one out. Now, you know that wont be easy. (G)
Jay

Game Plan

Bot calls at 1pm on Monday and sold them at 10am on Tuesday and got 30 pts
Sure its higher at 2pm, but I dont care. ive got other things to do with my time.

As for Wednesday,Aug 6th, Im planning to Sell the open at about 10am.(buyputs)

I am expecting to sell those puts at 3pm

Repeat the same process for the 7th.

You could hold them till 2pm on the 8th

Hope this clarifies how to trade this week

Jay

monday 11am update

Still flat line so no advances as of yet.

Could take till the 258 bar cycle @ 1pm

Or just the last 30 minutes from 30bars @ 3:30

The calls prices on qqqhr are really hanging tough @ $1.25 area ,but did hit a low of $1.15

Ndx did NOT quite challenge 1800 as yet but did hit 1805

Looks like Today will require an all day vigil
so what else is new? (G)

Jay

Monday Aug4th

Today looks like a lower open following on the last 30 minute downtrend on friday

However,
from the data I collect
It looks like BUY calls on the lows at probably 10;15 to 10:30, and sell the OPEN on Tuesday at 10am OR if you want, just hold till about 2pm where a secondary high should set the stage for a lower close.

Jaywiz index = .28, not bullish , but NOT overly bearish unless it counts for today's open.

A run to spx 1290 by tomorrow afternoon would not be out of the question

Jay