monday June23

fridays close left the door open for a lower open on Monday;

If we get such, then I am buying calls as I closed out my puts on Friday

We got a 3pm low @ 126 bars exactly
156bars cycle doesnt hit till 11 am but that might only be minor setbacks in a rising market
expecting the close to be the peak of a rebound for the day

180 bar cycle @ 1:30 could be the kick off to the higher close;

Jay

Simon Says

many of you will remember a couple weeks past,we had a few large numbers on the jaywiz index but no rally had occured yet, but it was delayed a day;

Thats what we have now.
we've got a 56, 19,73,& 75 on friday

that indicates a rebound in the making

Add to that a potential low on monday at 156 bars @ 11am, and the day could end quite a bit higher

Jay

so much for non existing rallies

each of the last 4 days had an 11am high, but today as indicated by 180bars hit a low at 11am, as was forecasted yesterday.

the full moon at 12:32 provided a rebound high from which further declines ensued.

Dow under 12k with volume such as we are getting would indicate further erosion the next 2 days.

I've had june 20th as a potential low point and the projection seems to becoming reality.

spx murrey math levels under 1343, and as i write this at 1pm its @1338, would seek the next 31 pt lower level @ 1312, then 1281 thus equals dow levels of 11,800,then 11,550

Jay

june lows

today was exactly as described altho it was a tedious day.

the jaywiz idex which gave a sell on monday@.13
Now gives a BUY today @ .56
the Oex & sp 500PC ratios agree

Today closed at spx 1351,right on aa murrey math level;
From here,we should see the spx run to 1375

bar cycles for tomorrow are only important to note them for minor pullbacks during the day
look for 180 b @ 11am
204b @ 1pm
228 b @ 3pm, leading to a high close

Jay

variations

other than the gap down, the day went according to desription but the actual high was more like 1:30pm, not 10:30am

Accordingly we should see a solid sell off tomorrow till the 3;30 time slot @ 156bars

Im writing this at 3:30 monday so Im jumping the gun a bit, but im quite confident about the forecast.

Jay

Short term horizon

I may have lost some of those who prefer to get a view of what to expect in the next 3months, 6 months or one year, and thats OK with me.

Im concentrating on making $$, not predictions about the future which everyone including myeslf forgets by the time the future occurs.

As for Friday, once again EXACTLY as desribed the day b4

For monday, we can expect a follow through to the last hour rally up thru 10:30, THEN its time to get short and close out those positions at 4pm.

Jay

exactly as described

Tomrrow should be a positive day until late afternoon, not like today

Might drop off some near the close and then again should make a late day dip @ 3pm @ the 259 bar cycle.

that would set off the close with strength as well as Monday for at least the first hour, as the next bar cycle hits 30b @ 11am.

Jay

morning update

Jaywiz index = .22 and still some what bearish which supports my projection for a mid day high and later slide backward.

Futures indicate a strong open about 85 dow points which will be hard to buy calls right at the open without paying the higher premium, but that should lead to a mid day high of at least + 200 pts by 1pm, so the buy will still be profitable.

Jay

Hit the nail on the head

As projected a down day today

Tomorrow, however has me a bit perplexed, but my inclincation is to buy calls off the openning low

126 bars @ 10;30

readings and data are in conflict, but the stronger data indicates a rebound till at least 1pm before settling back but still an up day.

Friday again calls for a lower open but a very strong rally into the close-

SPX today closed at murrey math 1335, and could open flat or down to 1331;
wait one hour - probably wont follow my own advice- grr.

Jay

Another view

Heres a view of whats to come from ACB

As you can see, He points out the summer solstice on june20th/21st is a multiple convergence and it could be a panic low - sun 180 pluto @ 3;39pm
June19 is Stan Harley's 242 day cycle from July19th ,2007

Jaywiz index today = .15
oex pc ratio = .88 and was .56 yesterday

Gold drops 25.00
oil drops another 3.00

Nenner says oil to 170, Im just not a believer
But he also says Not to buy stocks until after Mid June, and as you can see that fits the solstice low scenario by one week.

Tomorrows important bar cycle is 102 @ 3pm
tomorrow's 52 hr cycle is @ 3pm
Looks like something important is @ 3pm, and it should be a low.

june12th reading calls for shock and upheavals ?? will it be a duplicate of 6/11

6/11, Hmmm
it is 60 days Mar17 And 90days Feb 1st

All kinds of foods have been recalled from beef to now Tomatoes
did anyone happen to record when these recalls occur and coordinate them with market action?
I didnt but Im sure you will find them happenning at market declines.

best wishes
Jay

2 different worlds

Dow and ndx performed in 2 different worlds today

however, they both hit low spots at all the right places

11;00am
2pm was a 13 day or 84.5 hr cycle low
3pm was the 204 bar cycle

Tomorrow looks like it could start out on a low @ 228bars @10:30am, but a rebound is possible
I will be looking to buy calls for a one day play.

Jaywiz index = .31 still bearish
OEX pc ratio = .56 and thats extremely bearish

If they do get a rally going tomorrow, I dont think it will last more than one day.

the NDX hit major suppport right at 1950 and the SPX hit a murrey math point at 1351.

Still got the 60/90 day cycle convergence on the 11th. PLUS a 52 hr cycle @ 3pm.

With Venus 90 uranus @ 3am on the 12th , any effect should be seen on the 11th.

Puts bot last week were very profitable and could have been even more so, but I'll take a 29% gain anytime. Played the 2pm low and got out at the right time.

best wishes
Jay

interesting stats

FOR June11th

90 days from Feb 1st, a high
60 from march 17, and you know what that was

Equally as important and maybe more so
52 hours from the May 30 intraday high at 3pm = 8 days
that makes June11th a STRONG potential for the low @ 3pm
WHICH is ALSO a 102 bar cycle- I usually look at 90 bars which would be @ 2pm- could be either one to fit the 52 hour cycle.

However, the outlook for june 12 calls for a repeat of June11th, but a lower low will probably not occur

best for now
Jay

WELL - does that count ??

Mini crashette
Broke all support levels
where to next?
Dow has weak support @ 12,100--- has strong support @ 11750---- then 11,625& ---then 11,550
Jaywiz index today = .35 somwhat bearish
You can now see the history of the index= .74, .75, .47 then the big one day rally
June5th = .16 and wow

The ARMS index = 3.92 and the volume was 88% DOWN
I would usually consider such a high arms index as a precedent for a buy signal, but coming off the recent high and the very first day, it suggests a lot more selling to follow.

My radar is set for the 11th/12th as a near term low with a strong rebound starting on the 13th.

High oil - Warnings about nuclear capabilites- big jump in unemploy rate- more to follow.

Monday bar cycles
156 @ 11:30
180 @ 1pm
204 @ 3pm, and that should be the low of the day

best for now
Jay

June5th

June5th could be the rebound high of the year ??

May 2008, according to 17 year cycles should have been the top of a 17 year commodity cycle, or it could take another month.

Jaywiz Index =.16 indicating a pullback is imminent.

Bradley turn on May24th, a Saturday, hit on friday, the 23rd
Bradley Turn on june7th seems to have hit on June6th, Friday.

the next recorded date is july6th, a Saturday.
in between and not dated is a whole month

a look at the chart shows a couple blips; one on June12th and another on june24th.

My suspicion is for a june 12 low, and june24th high

Jay

S&P in charge

And it doesn't look good resistence seems to be at about 1388

1400 close on May30
to 1378 low

to 1392 failed to get above resistence @1400

to 1370 a lower low

up to 1386, UH Oh, a lower high

down to 1372-- ok no new low

to 1388 ?? this AM ??

Kiss of death ???

Lower lows and lower highs

Jay

BULL Trap

today's hopeful rally may have set the stage for a mini crashette next 2days

Looking for a lower open, mid day rebound, and lower close leading to a very bad 6th, at least its bad for the bulls.

Jay

NO rally this week

Unlike my earlier forecast, we have to report that NO rally is coming this week

Friday is Bradley and it will be a low
June8th= midnite high tide is inverted to stocks

Other scientific data feeds are still pointing down including today.
Might be a 3 pm rebound high off a 1;45pm low@ 228bars, but the close will still be lower.

Jay

Stan Harley

To understand his bar counting, just write to him
Its his discovery to give away or not.
Go to his website or google is name

Today was not as good as yesterday, but it was my own fault
I bot calls too soon and sold them too soon;
WAiting till 2;30 is too much to ask, and it takes more patience than I have;
I had been anticipating the 11:45 low, but realized there was a lower low coming.

Most of my data for tomorrow including the Jaywiz index says we should get that rally ive been projecting, but other data say no; SOOO, Im going to wait for tomorrow's open b4 doing anything, and even then I might just wait it out. I am still confident the bears will be in control form the 6th to the 12th.
IT might just take one day extra where Thursday becomes the rally day and Friday close is the shorting opp, but we'll see more by early AM.

So far the scientific data stream says tomorrow is a bear day.

Best for now
Jay

Jaywiz Index

today's jaywiz index = .65

that on top of fridays # of .76 is telling quite a story

We can expect a 300 point dow Up day on Wed

that should take the spx to 1440, the May19th intraday high

From there...., well its not pretty for the bulls

Jay

Near perfect day

Down from the GO
Lows were
30B @ 10:30
60b@ 1pm
90b@ 3;15

Notice the LOD at 1pm had an obv of -184 ~ dow - 210
3;15 low had an obv of -138 and dow -150
At that point, anyone watching could see a chnage was occurring

Tomorrow?
Could start out a little sloppy
126b@ 11:45am could possibly be the LOD
156b@ 2;15 is close to the new moon @ 2;24 and low tide @ 2;27
other than that, the day should close higher leading to a substantial rally on the 4th

There is a venus cycle that hit in July of 2004, and ends in June of 2010
the MID POINT is June7th, 2008 and could be the High of the rebound with a dramatic decline for the rest of June. Some of my other analsysts are indicating june 24th for a serious low this month.

June19 is Stan Harley's 242 tr day from July 19-2007 High to Low;

Best for now
Jay

Week of June 2 to 6

Monday = DOWN day
Tuesday = moderate recovery
Wed = big up day
thursday = take the day off
Friday Ok at open but DOWN all the rest of the day

Jaywiz index = .76 which is Extremely bullish, but were still working off the .08 from the day b4.

90 bar count @ 11:15
126 bar count @ 2:15
high of day @ 3pm, then closed lower leading to the 150 bar cycle @ 9:45 Monday AM.
Would expect a quick rebound right after b4 buying puts.

Jay

BAR counts

180B @ 10;30 sudden dip
204b @ 12:15, minor dip
228B @ 2;15, minor dip & rally high @ 2:30

Closed the day @ 252 bars which might be a truncated 259bar cycle, and if not then a moderate low open til 10am.

There is NOTHING in the way of a strong rally tomorrow with a possible high between 2:30 and 3:30
Jaywiz index = .08 and thats EXTREMELY bearish
OEX pc ratio is bullish

Expected strong down day on Monday, June2nd.
recover on the 3rd, then blast higher on the 4th to 6th

best wishes
Jay

stand your ground

Today was marked with indecision, but they stood their ground

But as promissed , it was mostly a down day.
Today had a 126 bar cycle @ noon, and they hit a low at 12:15
Aslo had a 156 bar cycle at 2;30, and a look at the 1 minute chart shows it clearly

Tomorrow has a 180 bar cycle @ 10am, and that should be the LOD
expect a solid upday from there and Friday also;

Jay

Tuesday May 27

As expected the day was in rally mode, but it lasted all day

End of day OBV, Ultimate osc, and macd all appeared to be rolling over

Jaywiz index = .13 and thats extremely bearish
OEX pc ratio = .50 Ditto
CBOE pc ratio = .95 = neutral

My propietray ADv Decl index = 422 and was 348 friday- these #s say get ready for a rally
My propietary vol index = 335 and was 295 friday
anything under 400 is quite bullish

It would seem theres a contradiction with the above data, but not at all, as it shows theres still a couple more days of slop, ro lower values b4 making a run to new annual highs.

Got very clear indications for a strong rally on friday, and will get comfirmation by thursday

Thursday has 180 bars @ 10am and thus should open down with 204 bars@ noon, the way is then clear to rebound; However, 259 b hits @ close, so it might just be a struggle to gain any ground, but all of it should become history on Friday.

Best Wishes
Jay

2year Dow chart

Take NOTICE of one very important feature

The ON Balance volume has NOT waivered during the whole time from last July

Jay

monday rally?

Monday should rally at least part of the day and that would place a high at about 1pm.

From there as I have written several times, Im expecting a low on the 28th
there is 156 bars @ 3;30pm on the 28th which would offer a good close out point for puts

The Open on the 29th has a 180 bar count @ 11:30 am and could offer an opp to buy calls to close out the week on a high

Since June3rd is a new moon, we could expect a possible retest of hte lows on the 2nd and or 3rd

From there as I have mentioned several times, they can then resume the run to 1500 by August 18th.
First stop would have to get above 1440

Best for now
Jay

What did I do?

I waited till 10:35 and the rebound after the 10am low

I realized they were NOT going to rally and the graphs from the west coast that were pointing down for today were correct

I bot the puts and sold them at 11;30 - got a 10% gain

It looks like the market closed at 1pm, or at least they probably should have as it went to sleep afterward.

Have a great weekend
Jay

Science Points the day UP

I was expecting the ovenight graphs to point the way lower today, but that is just NOT the case

There is still the 9:45am @ 204bars cycle hit and thats why the futures are so weak this AM

BUT the pressure readings are UP strongly and cant be ignored.

SO, I will consider buying calls back at 9:45am or within the next 15 minutes after.

Or maybe just ignore the day and enjoy the wkend early(GG)

Jay

May23= DOWN

I got very little out of those calls today

You can be sure Im buying puts at the open, and hopefully they will open slightly higher- the problem with that is a 204 bar count@ 9:45

Did anyone else notice this
Wed 21st
openned higher until 9:45 THEN hit a low @ 2;15 = 102 bars

Today openned lower until 9:45 THEn hit a low @ 2:15 = 180 bars

GUESS WHAT
204 bars @9:45 AGAIN
259 bars hits at 2;15/2:30 AGAIN

Amazing stuff
Tide is HIGH- thus stocks invert and make a LOW on the Bradley


Jaywiz index = .21- quite bearish
OEX PC ratio = .69 = very bearish
vix still at 18.05

A low tomrrow should setup a mid day high on Monday, but Im now looking at the 29th for that important low from which they can rebound back to spx 1440

Remember I mentioned the 40 pt spx moves
spx @ 1440 - 40 = 1400 - 40 = 1360----------That might be the 29th target.

Best for now
Jay

technical bounce due today

east coast readings are pointing up
west coast are pointing down

Since there's a 4 hour delay, It would be prudent to wait and see

however, as a trader, I would be inclined to buy calls today, and puts on open tomorrow
Today has potential to make a high at noon, a low@ 1;30, and end at a high

Still got may28th as a potential spring board to spx 1500 by August 18th

many tecnicians that Im reading are still looking down by June23rd, but I dont agree with that at all

Eclipses are high energy dates and there are 2 in Aug, on the 2nd and 18th

First one should fall into a low as its the NEW moon eclipse and the 18th is obviously the full moon, and has conicided with trading highs for many years now.

the key to 1500 will be a break out above 1440 or at least a close just above in the first week in June.

Jay

getting ready for support

today went rather well as the 259 bar cycle hit @ noon
and the next 30 bar cycle hit at 2:15 to 2;30, at which point I sold my puts for a 25% gain

The expected downday was delayed by one half day as a high was hit on Monday at 1;30pm
a secondary high was hit on tuesday also at 1:30 after the noon low

Today, so far the futures are pointing toward a lower open by about 6pts or dow 50
that might be a very short term opp to buy calls for a run up till 1pm, as one of my advance systems
is indicating a mid day high and later retreat.

Same deal also goes for tomorrow

The 27th and 28th seem to be where timing meets the road and support at possibly spx1375 should be reached.
once again May28th is 216 tr days or 4 x 54 from July19th ,2007

the next 54 tr day cycle is on August 18th where the solar eclipse is likely to provide a potential top at spx 1500 as I have outlined b4.

I dont know where some technicians are calling for an immediate drop to 1280 or lower, and others are looking for 1180 this year, but anything close to that type of decline will have to wait till after Aug18th. As we know 80% of the action ocurrs in 20% of the cycle, and its usually the LAST 20% where the "C" wave finally shows its fangs.

Best Wishes
Jay

Time progression

July 19, 2007 + 216 tr days = May28th, 2008

Since that represent 4 iterations of 54 tr days, it should offer an important low point

Whats that? you say, an important low point? Yes

what follows is 2 more iterations of 54 to nov 4th- yes election day

Ive mentioned this a few times and will repeat it again.

From May28 + 54 = August 18th, an important date with a SOLAR eclipse, THEN add 54 more = Nov 4th.

THE spx lost 300 pts from Oct9th, 2007 to March 17th,2008
the gain so far to 1422 is a succession of 4 - 40 pt gains from 1262, or 160 pts or 50%

NOW add 80 more points or 2 x 40 to get to 1502
another way to do that= 300 x 78.6% = 236 pts + 1262 = 1498

SO, now we have the May28th low leading to an Aug18th eclipse topping with the SPX @ 1500
Actually its the March 17th low and a break out above 1422 in June that will clinch the deal.

Best for now
Jay

Monday May19th

Monday, May 19th has similar events occuring to compare it to Feb 27th of 2007

The full moon is square neptune on one side and Square Saturn on the other side

On Feb 27th Neptune was opposite Saturn

Saturn is deflationary & disillusionary, thus dispels the fluffy Neptunian clouds

Remember this
I can see clearly now, the clouds are gone and all obstacles in my way.

Jay

SELL today's close

Im buying puts on today's close thursday May 15th

Looking for 2 sharp days lower into Monday near the close

Best for now
Jay

Failure

early indications show tomorrow as potential attempt to rally one more time.

the close TODAY indicates a lower open as the 259 bar count is @ 10;30am

from there, the could attempt to recover, but it wont mean much other than a great shorting opp.

Jay

Bradley dates

May 6 = a high ~~ was followed by a mild sell off
May 14 = a high ~~ should be follwed by a sell off
May 25 = a high on 23rd as the 25th is sunday, and should be follwed by a sell off

Go back to july 19, 2007 and move forward from that anchor point in 54 tr day segments
July 19 + 57 = Oct 10 top
+ 109 daysMarch 17th Low
+54 days = June3rd
Window for a low is open from May 27th to June 3rd.
May 29th would be my projected date for a possible intraday low- july 19 + 216 tr days = May28th

But even before that we have a pending low on the 19th, and full moon date, and since the bradley date is may 25th , it would be wise to consider a quick turn to make that high on the 23rd.

June 6th is next Bradley date, and yes it should be a high as I have posted before.

Jaywiz index was a .14 yesterday and the PC ratios were mostly bearish, but the bradley high is creating a delay.

best for now
Jay

Full moons

A study of full moons is intersteing but it tell su very little about what to expect at the next full moon.

Now most of us know the full moon effect on people, but the full moon has mostly had a lifting effect on stock trading, and thus we have seen many highs go by on the full moons. That tells us only one thing- look for highs at full moons. BUT NOT May 19th- for some reason the energy paterns leading into May 19th seem to have a dampenning effect on people, thus trading should be muted and prices should trend lower.

Im sure many will be surprised to see this week slipping away a little more each day culminating on a low on May 19th. Both Helge and Charts Edge seem to agree on that. I dont see any reason to doubt those 2 outlooks.


Jaywiz index =.29 on friday and confirms what solar energy & gravity effects indicate
Im sure many will be surprised to see continued weakness next week, and some technicians are looking for a reason to buy as everyday goes by.

Best Wishes
Jay

Short term horizon

HI Peter, and Larry T.
Appreciate your cycle anaylsis data

As you have probably become aware, I have a short term horizon which means anything from one day to one month. I do like to have a view of 3 months at the most. I am aware of course of longer trends as I am expecting a November 2008 low to lead to a DEc 2009, or Jan 2010 TOP with 2010 similar to 2000 leading to the 10,20,30,40 etc year declines into 2011-2012. In case you havent noticed, the 2 year in every decade except 1974 have been important lows.

A 38 day cycle hit from March 17th followed by a 19 day low on April 14th is now due to hit tomorrow. My advance scientific indicators show me a flat to mediocre day today, and a much more severe sell off tomorrow.

Next week should trend higher on Monday and Tuesday.

Jaywiz index = .42 today thus holding the market as is.

The SPX usually moves in 40 pt segments.
1262 + 40 = 1302
1302+40 = 1342
1342+40 =1382
1382+ 40 =1422 BINGO

Now what?
Just subtract then in reverse.
yesterday they took out 26 pts, and thats 14 short of 40
Tomorrow takes out 16 in the first hour, then subtract 40 more = potential is for 1336.
remember I said potential, no guarantee

Monday was an 8 day high as the market openned a little higher at 1415 spx
Tuesday was a Bradley and an 8 day TURN which provided a rebound high and a turn-
May 2nd -5th and 6 gave me dejavue with oct 9-10-11 last year

I am still in the camp that June 7th will provide a more meaningful TOP
In the meantime we have all of May to contend with

The next bradley date is May14th and looks like it could provide a low and high all in one day- similar to May6th. Then there is may 25th, a Sunday, which is followed by Memorial day.
SO what can we expect from that?
I would think the low would occur on the 27th and possibly even the 29th.
the 8 day pattern hits on the 28th& 29th- one is a low and the next is the turn

SO, from there, we get into June and the 7th with its multiple conjunctions should provide some strong sell signals.

Best for now
Jay

Jaywiz index sell

Jaywiz index = .13 its a sell for Monday

that means the bradley index on the 6th;
IF a high , then its a sell to the 9th
If a low, then its a buy

Some advance indications show it as a high,
thus the 38 tr day low to low cycle should hit on the 9th.

SPX 1376 is support

Another advance solar indications also shows lows on the 9th.

I wrote this b4 and i will again as others have indicated mid June as potential mid year highs.
I doubt anything serious will occur as far as selling sessions until after June7th.

Best for Now
Jay

Clusters

Today, and Monday are time clusters which appear important.

Jaywiz index = .48, quite bullish, but offsets yesterday's .21

Today is 34 days after March 17th
288 march 13, 2007, a low

Monday
144 Oct9th, 2007 high
8day high
Tuesday is a Bradley turn and an 8 day turn
24 days which 4 segments of 8 from April1st, a high also

May 14th is the next date of importance which at this point appears may offer a low of at least 100 spx points lower

May 14 is 41 tr days from March 17th, which makes the 15th @ 42 trday days- I mention this as it is also an 8 day segment low, making the 16th an 8 day segment TURN

Jay

NOt much ado

I doubt anything serious is going to effect the markets until late June.

Wave action has to set the stage for a wave 3 decline which takes time to develop.

Look back to October 9th, it took till DEc Jan 2nd b4 anything really serious came along.

The bradley May chart looks whimpy and doesn't show anything until after June7th

I would expect the markets to hold their own today but tomorrow might be more difficult

The Jaywiz index = .21, decidedly more negavite.

Monday promisses a decent rally off whatever low might occur tomorrow.

Best for Now
Jay

Interest rates are 2%

My Money market accounts and CD's are going to suffer on the next turn around.

Today we had 204 bars at 1pm & the high of the day@ 2:!% dow 12992, and spx 1404.57

hit a minor low@ 3;15 , but closed heading DOWN
there is a 259 bar cycle @ 10:30, which should provide the first stopping point tomorrow.

from there, we get 126bars cycle @ @;30 pm on friday, which should offer the low of the week.

Now heres the tricky part
Monday is an 8day cycle, and Tuesday is a Bradley turn as well as an 8 day turn
WILL the 5th be a HIGH, with the 6th a TURN off the high??

Best for now
Jay

Forming a TOP?

Tops, unlike bottoms form more slowly and are more insidious.
bottoms form quicly and sharply mostly on one day, maybe followed by a retest a week or 2 later- see march 10 to 17
or Nov 12 to 26 last year-2007

It looks like we go FLAT today and take a big hit tomorrow.

however, the rest of the week will probably recover and make the final failed attempt on Friday.

May 2nd has a small cluster of dates
55 tr days feb 13, a low
288 march 13, 2007, a low
144 oct 9th

Next week should offer the start of a decline thru May14th, and a retest possible on the 28th.

Best For Now
Jay

Eye of the Storm

March 10 to April25th = 34 tr days

WAS THAT IT ? now that we are banging on 1400 and gee wiz, everything looks ROSY

Or are those roses left over from yesterday

Fed minutes reported IT WILL TAKE TIME for the system to work out the kinks

BUT in the meantime, does that mean that any additional rate cuts are just frosting- NO MORE CAKE !!

Charts egde paints a glim picture for the Month of May- deos that mean spx 1400 is the barrier it NOT painted to be. I say that because Ive been reading many technicians with good systems are pasting 1400 behind us. DO I dare say it -- too many bulls???

May 6 is only 144 tr days from Oct9th
April 22 = 32 tr days from March 10th- thats 4 segments of 8
But it made a low on the Bradley date and a high on Apr25th the day b4the Apr 27th Sundaybradley date.

OEX pc ratios last 2 days are bearish
CBOE ratios are neutral
VIX @ 19.59= says its time to go the other way

Jaywiz index Tues= .16
Wed = .38
thurs=.13
Fri =.33
Mostly bearish overtones

The way I see it is
mostly down in May
1/2 month June up
Lows around Mid July

192 tr days = July 15th = 24 segments of 8
Sq root of 196 = 14
13.8 ^2 = 190 days
CLSUTERED

the reason I mentioned 13.8^2 is Bruce Larson brot this progression to the attention of another group. Some of you are already aware of this.

6.8^2 = Cal days, count from Oct 9th or 10th
7.8, etc and each one hits on a specific market turn date.

Best for now
Jay

8 day high

Having reached an intraday high of 1388 yesterday its very possible that might have been the 8day high AND turn all in one day.

today's open is marked by the 180 bar cycle which almost is an auto prediction for a downside hit as indicated by the futures.

To repeat again
If they recover and fail, that is the 8day cycle TURN, unless it happened yesterday at 1388 spx.
IF there is no recovery today, then the next 8 day cycle high on May5th could also be the turn, instead of the 8th.

Monday's jaywiz index = .82 - considered very bullish???
Tuesday = .16 very bearish
maybe they wash out to neutral?
yesterdays Jaywiz index was a .38- consider it neutral


Best Wishes
Jay

More techincal data

I can make a few different Elliiott counts, but they all lead in one direction. -down

I prefer to count 5 waves down from oct10 to march 10 or 17th. WHen this occurs, it predicts further declines after the 3 wave rebound which appears might have completed on April18th, or imo might still have more to go till June7th. In between we should see a lower 'b' wave in the 3 set structure most likely ending on May28th.

What about this week?

OK, We got a high on Apri18th, right on a Bradley turn date

Apr 22nd, another turn date looks like it started a new downtrend and that should go to the 28th where the next Bradley date hits, and there is enuf negative astro to support that outlook. I do expect a rather large down day on the 28th.

From there, we should get a rebound accompanied by the Fed thru May2nd or 5th where Arch says get short, and I agree with him.

Best for now

Jay

Bradley

this chart was produced by Markus Rose, but there are others, some not as detailed.

Amazing tho, all of them left out Jan 22/23

all of them show March 9, not the 10th and displayed as a high

All of them show April7th as a low, but it was a high followed by a low on Apr 11, not shown

April27th coming up soon is shown as a high, but I think the 28th will provide a low as the 27th is a Sunday.

From April27th, the chart drops off only sightly till May 25th and or 28th as some other graphs depict. The moderate decline might be very deceiving. In other words, It could be a lot more severe than shown.

Every year for the past 3 years, the bradley chart has shown a drop off the 2nd half of the year, and that has NOT been the case, so why should this year be different?

One thing we can point out is the January baramoter- Jan lost 600 pts in the first week and proceeded to lost more into the 22/23rd.

June7th does have the astro power to perform as indicated as a major high with a strong downturn afterward thru Mid july.

SO___ now we have a mixed performance in April

Expecting a POOR showing for May with a huge potential rebound from the 28th to June7th.

Then expecting another poor performance after June 7th till July 13th.

Most of this ties in with the 8 day/ 32 day segments

See my previous posts.

Best Wishes

Jay

another sign of trouble

heres another chart that was posted at another site I frequent

It points out the deterioration of OBV using aver daily volume rather than straight up verse down volume.

Jay

Sell in May and Go Away ??

Youve heard that many times before, Im sure, but the more I read about May2008, the worse it looks.

If Arpil18th and or 22nd is the X wave complete rather than June6th, then May is in for wave 1 of "C" as mentioned this AM.

Could be as much as 175 spx points, but you know, I really doubt it.

I guess we will see real soon.

If small "b" is an irregular wave , this shows extreme weakness which should start to unfold later this week.

This wkend Mars is conjunct Pollux, the fixed star.

on the 29th we have a Merc 90 Neptune which is also 0 the node

On May 13 1nd 14 we have a sun sq node and Sun 90 Neptune

May 14 is a bradley date

Thses are NOT good combinations for market price appreciation

in fact they are deflationary and there is another grouping of 90's at the full moon on the 19th, and again on the 26th/27th

those aspects do not paint a pretty picture for May thru the 27th.

Jay

Anatomy of a correction

Corrective patterns can fall into a number of categories

This one falls into a Zig Zag 5 - 3 - 5
That means IF the first wave breaks down into 5 waves, that is never the end of the correction, and gives a clear clue as to the nature of the zig zag in progress.

This chart shows me the WAVE from Oct10 to March 10/17 was broken down into 5 waves leading to the completion of wave "A" on March 10th. The 110 tr day count to the 17th was already pointed out in a previous discussion. oct 10 = 13 x 8 segments = 104 days = March 10

THUS we should expect a 3 wave structure in the next wave called "B" which we are experiencing right now and imo, should end on June 6th and or 9th.
Since June 7th does appear to have some significant positive harmonic grouping of astro events, imo, that might mark the top of what would be labelled as wave "B"

March 10 + 55 = june 7th
June 9th = 21 x 8 = 168 tr days
June 9 to nov 4th = 110 dys
Total = 288 which is 2 x 144
13 months x 22 days ave = 286

Overview
Wave "A" = 5 internal waves and took 5 months
Wave "B" = 3 internal waves and should take 3months
Wave "C"= 5 internal waves and should take 5 months


Wave "A" was spx loss of 300 pts from 1576 to 1276

Wave "a" of "B" might have topped on April18th at 1390, a rebound of 114 pts or fibo 38.2%
wave 'b' of "B" can drop back to a fibo level less than the previous low or as low or lower depending on various factors which only the market knows and will reveal shortly. My guess is April 28th
Wave c of "B" could reach as high as 1410 to 1425, and thats where I think June9th comes in to play.

Wave "C" should break into 5 waves as similar to Wave "A" but there are some differences. "C" waves are considered the NASTY guys- Why? you ask?
This wave should take out a fibo multiple of wave "A" usually x 1.618 = 458 pts, but that would be subtracted from 1400 giving us a closing value in Nov of spx 950.

The graph above shows OBV in the lower chart, and imo is showing inherent weakness as it is only holding onto moderate gains from the 2006 lows

Im then expecting June7th to July 25th to take out at least and equal loss to wave 1 of "A" which was 165 pts from 1576 to 1410 on Nov26th. should also = a 32 day segment.

Hope this clarifies things for you.

Best Wises
Jay

Another view

heres a chart from Paco Santiago at his blog.

He's got the main low @ April26th and its upup and away from there

thats the MAYBE view I mentioned b4.

goes in opposition to bradley, but thats not an unusual scenario

Jay

Some are considering the spx-vix a sell signal

Vix now at 20.37 banging on the gap and horizontal axis.

seems to support my projections for a May6th dip to major support

Jay

making sense of the puzzle

Got lots of data, but need to put into words so it all makes sense as far as timing

Where are we now, and where are we going as opposed to where we came from.
Oct 9-10th, 2007: is the main pivot

from there we count
55 trade days = Dec 27th- was a high which lead to the jan 23rd low right at 72 tr days
110 tr days = March 17th, and it was a low
165 tr days = June7th - it is shown as a high on the Bradley graph- i have no reason to doubt it.
220 tr days = Aug 26th - is equal to 29 cycles of 8

Stan Harley discovered that 377 tr days and variables of it are most prominent.
377 X 38.2 = 144 tr days = May6th also a Bradley date shown as a LOW
377x 61.8= 233 tr days = Spt 12th shown as a bradley low

We can see that May6th a potential low leads to june7th a potential high
As per bradley for now, we see it slide from June7th all the way to Spt 9th.

Go back a minute to Harleys 215.4 week cycle hitting a low on March 17th; Does that infer we go on auto pilot to new highs?? maybe, or maybe not
heres a maybe not
March 17th was 110 trade days from Oct9th
June7th is 165 tr days
It is my proposal that the March 17th low will lead to a June7th high in the spx 1400 area.
In the meantime we will see trading in the range between spx1281 & 1367 which we just saw yesterday, as well as on 3 previous occasions. feb 1- feb 27- april7, and now

SO, now that we are at the top of the range , WHEN is 1281- the bottom of it going to be seen again. Since all we have left is 7 weeks or 35tr days till June7th, its probably going to split the difference with a 17 and 34 day cycle = May 6th- whooaah, we just identifed May6th as a bradley date and 144 tr days from oct9th - ahaha, the light dawns suddenly.

what about next week? how does that fit in??
WE got a 17/34 tr day high on April16th, and tide day

Now we get next week
a grouping of hard aspects on 23 & 24th
an 8 day cycle on the 23rd and turn day on the 24th
Bradley date on 22nd, might be pivotal high
Apr 23 = 55 tr from Feb 1st a high- a potential cycle low
Apr24 = 34 tr days from March 10, ditto
26th is tide day- no effect?

heres another progression that fits in nicley
the 8 day cycles
April-11 low & 14th turn to the 16th pivot high-
notice please the spx made a lower high after a lower low on March 17th

April23 proposed low and 24th turn
may 5 low and 6th turn
June9 th and 10th turn

give a little wiggle room for slight differences on exact dates

So we can see the progression of time and we need to fit in price as we approach the main gate on june7th. If all goes as projected, june7th should end the sideways progression of wave 2 and start wave 3 down to Spt 9th.

Best Wishes to all
Jay

More good news

looks like one more day of good news today

spx looks prime to test resistence at 1343 at least at the open.
what happens after seem to be a waning of spirit.

the roller coaster ride should take a dip into the 18th
run higher into the 22nd, and make another dip into the 25th

Jay

Sell Signals

Today closed with technical sell signals
oex pc ratio = .77 & yesterday was .80
CBOE pc ratio = 1.06 = neutral
spx 500 pc ratio = 1.33 = neutral
Jaywiz index = .30 & yesterday was .18

Spx got up to 1338 at the open, then hit the low at 1324 @ 11:30 right on the 329 bar cycle
then played all day within a smaller range.

Tomorrow has the potential to open with the other shoe falling.

18th is the bradley date and inverted from the graph indicates a low

Best Wishes
Jay

April15th

today has UP written all over it.

SPX Survived yesterday's test of 1327, a couple times, and now we are looking higher to run up to possible high @ 1343

Resistence is at the former support at 1343, and any touch of that level today would be a great selling opp

Good news about J&J coming at the right time as far as market timing- Delta merger and PPI all helping the positive
But the other shoe could fall tomorrow

Sun 0 Merc in Aries as far as astro goes seems to be providing support, as idnicated by the news items above,but it is exact @ 2am tomorrow morning

Having noted all the above what do we do next? Good Question !

Jaywiz Index =.18 and the 5day has dropped to 29.2 from a high on Apr 1st of 38.9
this should be deemed as bearish
Apr 14th was a turn date, but not neccessily a change in trend date.

The bradley date is still the 18th and it falls one day b4 the full moon which is the first to occur
after the March solstice and Ive been told it should be deemed as bearish.

1328 to 1343 is = to dow 120 and that would be a nice openning.
Can they get higher?
Possibly by noon If i look at WCA and or Charts edge or all day if I look at the SUn 0 Merc
If they get above 1343 by 10;10 am, then the next level is 1347, then 1351, but i really dont think it will happen.

This is getting too wordy and repetetive

Best Wishes
Jay

to buy or not to buy

As you may have read, i was considering buying call son a lower open tomorrow;

Since I probably wont get the chance to buy on a lower open, I wont buy at all and thats for 2 reasons

1. as mentioned already
2 . 3 sources are leading me to now look for a selling opp at 10 am on tuesday which should be more lucrative than scalping a few points on a meager 100pt dow rally
3. Now expecting most of the 15th & all off 16th to be DOWN and the next 2 spx 31.25 pt levels are 1312, then 1281.


Best Wishes

The number 32 for time and price

Not only can I count divisions of time in segments of 32, but we can also count segments of price

Murrey math uses 31.25, and I mentioned price levels a few days ago

The SPX for example dropped to 1343 friday in the first hour and it found no buyers, so the next major level would have set it down to 1312 or somewhare in between. When it got to be 3;30pm, and the spx found support at 1331, that was it. HOW, you ask? watch this

1343- 4= 1339- 4= 1335-4 = 1331 bingo
or 1343 - 12 = 1331- bingo
12 is obviously 3x4 as shown

Ive been intorduced to Murrey math of which I had heard mentioned but never paid much attention to it b4.
The best i can get out of it is a progression of price levels that is prominent throughout history
1.95 , 3.90, 7.80 ,, 15.65,, 31.25, 62.50 ,, 125.00,,
In case you ddint notice, its a doubling feature
When I round it off for trading it becomes 4 spx and 8 spx points , but you can use the exact levels as suscribed by the founder.

Ive mentioned Stan Harley, another great analsyst and mathemetician who introduced me to
the daily bar cycles. he has also been the founder of the 215.6 weekly cycles , which may have rolled over and started a new trend this week.

Ive also menioned the Armstrong 8.6 year cycle which was supposed to hit on march 22nd and it may have done just that starting a new downtrend as of that date, or accelerating one in progress that began oct10th, 2007.

there was also the 500 calendar day cycle that hit a high on April1st and double topped on April7th.
I had mentioned spx 1400/1410 as major resistence, but it would appear that break was the straw that broke the camels back and it mybe some months b4 we see that level again.

I am still in the camp for a Nov 4th LOW, nothing to do with elections, just the cycle events culminate on that date.
Oct10- 2007 PLUS 144 trade days = may6th, but more imortant is 288 trade days falls on Nov 10th.

Lets come back to next week. I know thats what you want to read, even tho the other stuff is good reading, but it wont help us make any$$;

Im hoping the spx opens - 4pts to the next level to give me an opp to buy some calls
for a rally into Midday Tuesday where I would buy puts expecting a lower market on the 16th and 17th. Any rally till 1pm on the 18th will probably not hold.
Option week which usually trends in favor of the calls looks like its set against them this week.

I did mention April22nd as the 32 day segment high, but it would appear a lower high and lower lows should follow thru at least July 13th.

April22nd high +32= June 9th high + 32 = July 25th high
You can take it out as far as you want.

Best Wishes for next week
Jay

32 day segments

I think Im going to concentrate on 32 day segments
This one for example started on march 10th and ends on April22nd

March 10th was a low at dow 11,740, but where April22nd ends should be less than spx1400
Since Mrch 17th we have seen only 3 wave movements from highs to lows, thus leading me to suspect we are in a corrective rebound AGAINST the major downtrend that began Oct10th 2007.

Ok, back to present;
Todays down day which i had been calling for all week is hitting right on schedule as the 55 tr day from jan 23rd. 56 tr days is division of 8 x7 = 56 which means monday could possibly open down in the first 10 minutes only to recover and move sharply higher for the day & into mid day on Tuesday.

The bradley date ive mentioned a few times was supposed to be a low on April7th, but it was a high, and most of the bradley dates this year have been inverted to the graphs that are typically published- SO what you ask?
The next date is April18th, and According to my work, it will be a low, and thus the inversions are still working.

However, what about April 22nd?
thats where astro becomes helpfull as there is a harmonic clster of trines leading up to the morning of April22nd and or the morning of april23rd which is the 8 day segment and turn.

I hoope this makes things as clear for you as it for me;
If not please let me know, and I will explore further.
thanks
Best Wishes
jay

Time progression

In case you hadnt noticeced this;

march 5th 2007 = Low 12,050
Add 32 days
April20th, 2007 = Hi 12,961
Add 32 days
to June4th =13,676 high
Add 32 days
July 19 hi @ 14k
OK, now lets skip over to Dec 6th, 2007 a Hgh
Add 32 days
jan 23rd a low
add 32 days
march 10th, a low
add 32 days
april22nd a posible high
add 32 days
June 7th a possible high
Thats as far as i went, but you get the jist
In between some of those datesthere are dates such as April7th which was a low and May 27th is suspect of being a low before a runup into jun7th.
Note that 32 is a clean division of 8
very strong 8 day cycles evident throughout history.

Hope this clears up some mystery of stock movment

Best Wishes
Jay

55 trade day low

FRIDAY April11th is the 55 trade day low and is also 8 trade day segment from the high on April-1.

That puts the day in contention to make a low at lest in the spx 1318 range if not lower.

is 9:15 am on Thursday, and it does not look ominous at this time, but that can change.

If it goes as detailed, then Monday should be an up day with Tuesday somewhat flat, and then the 34 tr day event hits on the 16th which should be a lesser event than tomorrow.

best Wishes
Jay

Much ado about nothing

So far we have nothing interesting to add to my report

Todays Jawiz Index is a .30, same as yesterday
the reading for tomorrow indicates a strong open but changes later in the day

Whats that mean? the 22 day stint from March 10th low should attemtp to move up, but should end flat to lower.

That means the 11th is indicating a lower low, and the tides are inverted as they have been for about a month.

Monday Apr14 reading indicating strong upside day, but could set the stage for a decline the rest of that week.

Best Wishes
Jay

Dilemma

April10th is 22 trada days from March 10th and is suspected by some to be a short term low.

Geez, the spx hasnt even cracked its first support level of 1343, and that means tomorrow would have to be a wildly lower day breaking that suport and heading toward 1312, the next 1/8 level.

The bradley dates are shown as April 7th with a direct line to April-18th with no change in direction in between. Well How is that going to happen if tomorrow makes a short term low??

Readings for Friday call for a difficult day and the high tide doesnt occur till midnite, so it might NOT have any effect on the day's trading.

Friday is 55 tr days from Jan 23rd intraday lows

Wed April16 is 17&34 trade days and should provide a low, but the readings for the 14th and 15th are quite positive, so how does that fit in with the bradley as mentioned above?/

SO, now you see the dilemma.

bradley says down all the way to 18th, but other data says no way.

Best Wishes
Jay

April 7th turn

That was enuf to set the next day to down

Using the fib ratios we can expect a minum of 46 spx points to a max of 74pts loss on or before the 10th.

Thats only if the wave is making a "b" wave against the 2nd wave retracement to 1400/1410 by April22nd.

IF by some chance wave 2 is finished , then the drop could be more substantial, and might even test the previous low, but we will have to watch and see what we get the next 3 days.

Best Wishes
Jay

March 2000 verses 2008

It was beginning to look erie how similar the 2000/2008 dates were falling into line, but that does NOT appear to be the case.

As of this moment in time its 12:45 on the 7th, and the spx is attemtpting to break out above 1385, but I dont think there will be enuf volume to carry it any higher

A quick look at the market from oct10th, 2007 shows pretty much where we could be in Elliott wave terms.
I know ive mentioned this b4, but its worth revisiting.
March 17th does look like the spx at 1263 intraday did make a low of wave 1
Therefore we can only surmise that we are in a wave 2 retracement which could make it as high as 1410 where there is major - major resistence, not that they have to do that, but its out there.

Still got April10-11 on my radar for a low this week which we could guess should fit the bill for a wave "b" low giving today as wave the 'a' high- this is all educated guesswork until it actually happens. this is an 8 day cluster of low & turn dates.

Take 1382 - 1263 = 120 pts, and again thats 38.2% of the 300 pt loss from Oct10 to March 17th.
120pts X 38.2% = 46 = 1336
120 x 50% = 60 = 1322
120 pts x 62%= 74 = 1308
these are valid FIBO relationships to the levels and we have seem them all b4 in the rebound from minuette wave 3 on jan 23rd to spx1395 of minor1.



The next 8 days cycle cluster is then on April23/24th, but the actual high might occur on the 22nd.
What I think we are seeing is the formation of a three month tripple top after the Jan 23rd
lows. OR the formation of an ABC rebound from March 17th. IF april22nd does offer the "c" wave high at 1400/1410, then the next move AFTERWARD should start wave 3 down to its major objective lows by May 28th.

Best for Now
Jay

April 2008

that chart did not show how vulnerable April is to a major brief decline.
However, we now see April 8th as a potential Bradley High thus leading to the next Bradley date of April27th as a low.
Now shown on most charts is an up blip from the 8th to an unposted date, which in my outlook is targetted as April22nd, and should be a high.

March had 3 dates as well- 8th -18th &26th

We now know which ones were inverted as shown and not exact
March 10th was a low, not the 8th as a high
March 17 was a low, not the 18th
march 26 as a high became march 24th, then marched higher to April 1st, now closer to April8th expecting today April7th to be the high date.

So whats next?
Heres my dates
April10, and or 11th should mark a 55 tr day low
Arpil22nd should turn in a high
April27th should show up as a low, but May 28th should be a much more important low

best for now
Jay

April 2000

Pictures speak volumes

Heres a shot of gold parabolic just like the 1980 highs, and you can easily see what followed that first high @ the 850 level.

Are we going to see the same thing until 2020 or are the fundamentals different for the drive up this time?

This time we world wide expasnion, especially in China, India, and other nations buying up gold, so its more spread out than before. however, the 378 months that it took for 1976 to now is way over due for a lengthy correction. Any fibo part of 377 x38.2% = 144 months =12 years, or any other part.

Since the 2 waves are so similar, we could extrapolate time from the previous wave to see where lows might occur so we can be ready to buy.

Jay

Warning FLAG is posted

I wont go into all the reasons why there is a potential for a 10% drop next week, but its out there

From the March 10th low, it does appear the ELLiott wave may have done a 3-3-5 to April-1st high.

If so, then the next wave is a serious decline starting the next downard phase this year.
Most prominent dates for low are April-11th & May 6th

I did mention May 6th b4, but here it is again
its 18 cycles of 8 trade days from oct10-11th last year;
that may not be anywhere near the end of it either.

take a look at April2000 and you will see how the current market looks just like it did then.
Also look at 2001which looks even more similar to 2008, getting ready to take the spring time collapse seriously;

If you think for one minute, the market cares about when the FED has done to prevent further declines, you are sadly mistaken.

Remember when I posted a GOLD TOP, within 3 days the POG fell nearly $100, and is now trading under $900 with a lot lower levels to come. The current rise from 255 to 1015 emulates the rise in 1980 to the first high of 850, and it took 18 years to sort that out at the 1999/2000 low.

329 bar cycle on April2nd @ 3pm
30 B cycle @ 11am on Apr3rd
102 bar cycle on April4th @ 10:30 was right on target
NOW expecting
126 B @ 12;30
156b @3pm or 160B @ 3;30- hard to know which is viable.

Fascinating that the May28th date is 22 x 8 = 176 tr days and is the Bradley date.

best for now
Jay

Jaywiz Index = .16

the jaywiz index speaks loudly today

Other tech data indicates a down day today

90 bars hits @ open tomorrow
might be a low for the day, but I think it might last a little longer- maybe noon

Bradley date of 8th now looking like a low, but April11th still has a spot on my radar

Best for now
Jay

CNBC

When CNBC and its pundits are calling a bottom, you can be sure its not one.
No disrespect meant to those who work in the media, they get caught up in the hype.

April11th is a target date that many have proposed as either an important high or low.

Yesterday went up a little further than I would have thought, but it changes nothing.
A bottom of importance will only be seen when the media is crying out- NO BOTTOM Yet!!

It still looks like wave 1 on march 10th, Wave 2 may have completed yesterday, or call it an X or B wave. In either case, the next wave should take the dow well below the March 10th low of 11,740.

those who point toward April11th as a high are forgetting options week right after which for the most part is usually a positive week, but thats not the main reason why.

JaywizIndex = .25 following a .37 yesterday indicating some weakenss today; Other scientific data also indicates lower this week thru mid day on Friday for now.

Best Wishes
Jay