monday June23

fridays close left the door open for a lower open on Monday;

If we get such, then I am buying calls as I closed out my puts on Friday

We got a 3pm low @ 126 bars exactly
156bars cycle doesnt hit till 11 am but that might only be minor setbacks in a rising market
expecting the close to be the peak of a rebound for the day

180 bar cycle @ 1:30 could be the kick off to the higher close;

Jay

Simon Says

many of you will remember a couple weeks past,we had a few large numbers on the jaywiz index but no rally had occured yet, but it was delayed a day;

Thats what we have now.
we've got a 56, 19,73,& 75 on friday

that indicates a rebound in the making

Add to that a potential low on monday at 156 bars @ 11am, and the day could end quite a bit higher

Jay

so much for non existing rallies

each of the last 4 days had an 11am high, but today as indicated by 180bars hit a low at 11am, as was forecasted yesterday.

the full moon at 12:32 provided a rebound high from which further declines ensued.

Dow under 12k with volume such as we are getting would indicate further erosion the next 2 days.

I've had june 20th as a potential low point and the projection seems to becoming reality.

spx murrey math levels under 1343, and as i write this at 1pm its @1338, would seek the next 31 pt lower level @ 1312, then 1281 thus equals dow levels of 11,800,then 11,550

Jay

june lows

today was exactly as described altho it was a tedious day.

the jaywiz idex which gave a sell on monday@.13
Now gives a BUY today @ .56
the Oex & sp 500PC ratios agree

Today closed at spx 1351,right on aa murrey math level;
From here,we should see the spx run to 1375

bar cycles for tomorrow are only important to note them for minor pullbacks during the day
look for 180 b @ 11am
204b @ 1pm
228 b @ 3pm, leading to a high close

Jay

variations

other than the gap down, the day went according to desription but the actual high was more like 1:30pm, not 10:30am

Accordingly we should see a solid sell off tomorrow till the 3;30 time slot @ 156bars

Im writing this at 3:30 monday so Im jumping the gun a bit, but im quite confident about the forecast.

Jay

Short term horizon

I may have lost some of those who prefer to get a view of what to expect in the next 3months, 6 months or one year, and thats OK with me.

Im concentrating on making $$, not predictions about the future which everyone including myeslf forgets by the time the future occurs.

As for Friday, once again EXACTLY as desribed the day b4

For monday, we can expect a follow through to the last hour rally up thru 10:30, THEN its time to get short and close out those positions at 4pm.

Jay

exactly as described

Tomrrow should be a positive day until late afternoon, not like today

Might drop off some near the close and then again should make a late day dip @ 3pm @ the 259 bar cycle.

that would set off the close with strength as well as Monday for at least the first hour, as the next bar cycle hits 30b @ 11am.

Jay

morning update

Jaywiz index = .22 and still some what bearish which supports my projection for a mid day high and later slide backward.

Futures indicate a strong open about 85 dow points which will be hard to buy calls right at the open without paying the higher premium, but that should lead to a mid day high of at least + 200 pts by 1pm, so the buy will still be profitable.

Jay

Hit the nail on the head

As projected a down day today

Tomorrow, however has me a bit perplexed, but my inclincation is to buy calls off the openning low

126 bars @ 10;30

readings and data are in conflict, but the stronger data indicates a rebound till at least 1pm before settling back but still an up day.

Friday again calls for a lower open but a very strong rally into the close-

SPX today closed at murrey math 1335, and could open flat or down to 1331;
wait one hour - probably wont follow my own advice- grr.

Jay

Another view

Heres a view of whats to come from ACB

As you can see, He points out the summer solstice on june20th/21st is a multiple convergence and it could be a panic low - sun 180 pluto @ 3;39pm
June19 is Stan Harley's 242 day cycle from July19th ,2007

Jaywiz index today = .15
oex pc ratio = .88 and was .56 yesterday

Gold drops 25.00
oil drops another 3.00

Nenner says oil to 170, Im just not a believer
But he also says Not to buy stocks until after Mid June, and as you can see that fits the solstice low scenario by one week.

Tomorrows important bar cycle is 102 @ 3pm
tomorrow's 52 hr cycle is @ 3pm
Looks like something important is @ 3pm, and it should be a low.

june12th reading calls for shock and upheavals ?? will it be a duplicate of 6/11

6/11, Hmmm
it is 60 days Mar17 And 90days Feb 1st

All kinds of foods have been recalled from beef to now Tomatoes
did anyone happen to record when these recalls occur and coordinate them with market action?
I didnt but Im sure you will find them happenning at market declines.

best wishes
Jay

2 different worlds

Dow and ndx performed in 2 different worlds today

however, they both hit low spots at all the right places

11;00am
2pm was a 13 day or 84.5 hr cycle low
3pm was the 204 bar cycle

Tomorrow looks like it could start out on a low @ 228bars @10:30am, but a rebound is possible
I will be looking to buy calls for a one day play.

Jaywiz index = .31 still bearish
OEX pc ratio = .56 and thats extremely bearish

If they do get a rally going tomorrow, I dont think it will last more than one day.

the NDX hit major suppport right at 1950 and the SPX hit a murrey math point at 1351.

Still got the 60/90 day cycle convergence on the 11th. PLUS a 52 hr cycle @ 3pm.

With Venus 90 uranus @ 3am on the 12th , any effect should be seen on the 11th.

Puts bot last week were very profitable and could have been even more so, but I'll take a 29% gain anytime. Played the 2pm low and got out at the right time.

best wishes
Jay

interesting stats

FOR June11th

90 days from Feb 1st, a high
60 from march 17, and you know what that was

Equally as important and maybe more so
52 hours from the May 30 intraday high at 3pm = 8 days
that makes June11th a STRONG potential for the low @ 3pm
WHICH is ALSO a 102 bar cycle- I usually look at 90 bars which would be @ 2pm- could be either one to fit the 52 hour cycle.

However, the outlook for june 12 calls for a repeat of June11th, but a lower low will probably not occur

best for now
Jay

WELL - does that count ??

Mini crashette
Broke all support levels
where to next?
Dow has weak support @ 12,100--- has strong support @ 11750---- then 11,625& ---then 11,550
Jaywiz index today = .35 somwhat bearish
You can now see the history of the index= .74, .75, .47 then the big one day rally
June5th = .16 and wow

The ARMS index = 3.92 and the volume was 88% DOWN
I would usually consider such a high arms index as a precedent for a buy signal, but coming off the recent high and the very first day, it suggests a lot more selling to follow.

My radar is set for the 11th/12th as a near term low with a strong rebound starting on the 13th.

High oil - Warnings about nuclear capabilites- big jump in unemploy rate- more to follow.

Monday bar cycles
156 @ 11:30
180 @ 1pm
204 @ 3pm, and that should be the low of the day

best for now
Jay

June5th

June5th could be the rebound high of the year ??

May 2008, according to 17 year cycles should have been the top of a 17 year commodity cycle, or it could take another month.

Jaywiz Index =.16 indicating a pullback is imminent.

Bradley turn on May24th, a Saturday, hit on friday, the 23rd
Bradley Turn on june7th seems to have hit on June6th, Friday.

the next recorded date is july6th, a Saturday.
in between and not dated is a whole month

a look at the chart shows a couple blips; one on June12th and another on june24th.

My suspicion is for a june 12 low, and june24th high

Jay

S&P in charge

And it doesn't look good resistence seems to be at about 1388

1400 close on May30
to 1378 low

to 1392 failed to get above resistence @1400

to 1370 a lower low

up to 1386, UH Oh, a lower high

down to 1372-- ok no new low

to 1388 ?? this AM ??

Kiss of death ???

Lower lows and lower highs

Jay

BULL Trap

today's hopeful rally may have set the stage for a mini crashette next 2days

Looking for a lower open, mid day rebound, and lower close leading to a very bad 6th, at least its bad for the bulls.

Jay

NO rally this week

Unlike my earlier forecast, we have to report that NO rally is coming this week

Friday is Bradley and it will be a low
June8th= midnite high tide is inverted to stocks

Other scientific data feeds are still pointing down including today.
Might be a 3 pm rebound high off a 1;45pm low@ 228bars, but the close will still be lower.

Jay

Stan Harley

To understand his bar counting, just write to him
Its his discovery to give away or not.
Go to his website or google is name

Today was not as good as yesterday, but it was my own fault
I bot calls too soon and sold them too soon;
WAiting till 2;30 is too much to ask, and it takes more patience than I have;
I had been anticipating the 11:45 low, but realized there was a lower low coming.

Most of my data for tomorrow including the Jaywiz index says we should get that rally ive been projecting, but other data say no; SOOO, Im going to wait for tomorrow's open b4 doing anything, and even then I might just wait it out. I am still confident the bears will be in control form the 6th to the 12th.
IT might just take one day extra where Thursday becomes the rally day and Friday close is the shorting opp, but we'll see more by early AM.

So far the scientific data stream says tomorrow is a bear day.

Best for now
Jay

Jaywiz Index

today's jaywiz index = .65

that on top of fridays # of .76 is telling quite a story

We can expect a 300 point dow Up day on Wed

that should take the spx to 1440, the May19th intraday high

From there...., well its not pretty for the bulls

Jay

Near perfect day

Down from the GO
Lows were
30B @ 10:30
60b@ 1pm
90b@ 3;15

Notice the LOD at 1pm had an obv of -184 ~ dow - 210
3;15 low had an obv of -138 and dow -150
At that point, anyone watching could see a chnage was occurring

Tomorrow?
Could start out a little sloppy
126b@ 11:45am could possibly be the LOD
156b@ 2;15 is close to the new moon @ 2;24 and low tide @ 2;27
other than that, the day should close higher leading to a substantial rally on the 4th

There is a venus cycle that hit in July of 2004, and ends in June of 2010
the MID POINT is June7th, 2008 and could be the High of the rebound with a dramatic decline for the rest of June. Some of my other analsysts are indicating june 24th for a serious low this month.

June19 is Stan Harley's 242 tr day from July 19-2007 High to Low;

Best for now
Jay