LOWER away

WE got to SPX1290 on the 23rd with a close of 1282
then 1234 on the 28th and 1284 on the 30th

It looks like an ABC rebound off the 15th low of spx 1200 intrady.

SO now we have the potential to take out 1200 in the next few days

Today closed as expected

tomorrow indicates lower all day with a last hour potential rally

180 bars @ 1:30
204 bars @ 3:30

Fascinating time coordination this week
Monday LOD @ 3:50pm
Tuesday HOD @ 3;50pm
Wed HOD @ 10:30am
Thurs HOD @ 10:30am

Huge multiple time convergence on the 6th
Best for now
Jay

july 15 low

What we have is WILD swings in a series of A-B-C's
You can clearly see 3 wave structures in both directions, or at least I can.

the july 15 low and subsequent rebound is still in effect and hasn't finished its trip to the top of the mountain.
But As for tomorrow, I have preliminary indications of a low @ 3:30pm at 126 bars, and You can see the potential for a DOWN leg to complete another 3 wave structure.

spx lost 240 pts may 19 to july15
240 x 38.2 =92 + 1200 = 1292, and we almost got that today.

A 50% rebound = 120 + 1200 = 1320, and that could be the final goal, BUT NOT tomorrow

New moon solar eclipse should set the stage for tomorrow's, among other data that I have accumulated.

Jay

Aug 6th time conversion

34 tr days from Jne19
55 from May19, a high
81 from Apr10, a high
110 from Feb 27, a high
117 from Nov 26, a low
122 from Feb13, a high

Eclipse date is Aug 1st @ 6am
Aug 6th = Mars 180 Uranus @2:38 pm
Merc 180 Nptune @ 2:42 pm

readings that week are wild;
Monday, Aug4th calls for a roller coaster type day, which, imo, hold onto your _____
Tuesday Aug 6th reads Improvement over yesterday
Wed Aug 6th calls for Accidents, tempers & highly volitile
Thurs & fri are rebounds.

As for today, we got exactly what was expected. a 10:30 HOD failed to hold and they are selling off dramatically and will continue into the 31st;
Bar cycle for 31st = 126 b @ 3:30 which should provide a low .

best for now
Jay

Eclipses

August 1st and Aug 16th
August 30th a second new moon in one month. very rare occasion

As projected , the market had a good day today
the HIGH jaywiz index readings did show its stuff today- delayed reaction

Many major declines or so called crashes have occurred during eclipse months, usually b4 or after.
Jan 22nd was a full moon, but the eclipse was on FEb 6th, 15 days later.

This time, however, we have a Mars 180 Uranus in between on Aug 6th, and that could tip the scales in favor of a large decline starting on the 4th.

I can't stress this time period more. as it might be one of the most important market events this year.

Today's rally into the CLOSE was helped along by a Sun 0 Merc @ 4:05pm, just for those of you who still dont understand the relationships of our planet to the cosmos.

Science has many studies linking solar and cosmic forces effecting our planet, especially people and behavior.

heres a bit of news - LA quake 5.8 talk about cosmic forces-- whew

Jaywiz index today = .26
CBOE pc ratio = .84
OEX pc ratio = 1.00
but more important SPDR ratio = .80, a drop from 3.27 yesterday

Oil down to 122, looks ready to give a $5.00 pop
Gold down $60 in so many days also might pop

best for now
Jay

power is upside

the 29th has potential to rebound all day.

I will buy on a lower open and most likely sell the close

One day rebound is overdue

the Jaywiz index = .29, not strong by any means, but dont forget we had 3 high readings last week, and in my experience, there is sometimes a delayed reaction

Spdr pc ratio which was 1.00 on Friday is now a whopping 3.27= a buy

Arms index = 1.65 and that indicates a lot more selling to follow, but not tmorrow.
Thursday's arms index was also only 1.57

Note : In order to get a strong bottom we need to see the one day ARMS index
of at least 3.00 or higher and would be even better back to back.
Thats called a CLIMACTIC ending when yuo get 3 days back to back with high Arms ratios

We could get that on the Aug 4th to 6th action

best for now
Jay

down monday indicated

Preliminary indications are for a down Monday
Jaywiz index = .34 mildly negative

It looks like the Jaywiz Index high numbers earlier this week had little effect as the SPX 1290 threashold resistence level might have been the top of a 90 point rebound

PC ratio = .83 and is negative
Vix = 22.91
Spdr ratio = 1.00
SPX 500 ratio = 1.25
OEX ratio = .35 and is extremely bearish, if I got the right data.

Consider the LOD was at 3:30 and the 30 b low cycle @ 2pm, then in my experience, the trend is still DOWN

The 60 b cycle is @ 10am and indicates a sharply lower open as we also watched that occur recently as i mentioned last week.

The Eclipse on 8/1 at 6am seems to be a natural magnet for a low as most new moons seem to be, but this one is enhanced by the solar eclipse.

Aug 4th to 6th has some heavy dute astro events which could settle the dispute over the bottoming process

best for now
Jay

Noon on July25th

YO can see a number of thisngs from this chart

1. the OBV is DROPPING

2. the Ult oscilator is declining

3. the dow made a second attemtpt to move higher but stopped at the 85 level, and the balance of the day should attemtpt to stay afloat

The 258 bar count cycle was @ 11:30. and there was a low at that time point, but he dow is dropping lower AFTER the completed 258 bar cycle, and is starting a new one & going lower.

A LOWER close today spells a very serious day for Monday.

best for now

Jay

Another view

You can also view this week's drop off as an ABC
today would be looked as an X wave
that leaves another potential ABC for next week

which means at least another 350 dow points or more
best for now
Jay

SPX sell signal

Thanks to Ethan, this chart shows the SPX has broken support and is now on a SELL

Jay

today's potential

This week off the intraday highs on Wed.

Dow High = 11,697

Dow Low yesterday = 11,348

Difference = 350 pts

From high to low looks like 3 waves

that means to day is wave 4

wave 4 can reach 38.2% of the loss

350 x 38.2% = 134 pts + 13348= 11482 is the highest potential

the first rally got to 11,443 which = 103pts = 29%

is that enuf? -- maybe

Once wave 4 is complete, they give it up to wave 5 which usually = wave 1 but could also be mcu worse.

We have some indications that show the market dropping all next week, with of course soem intraday lifts, but nothing that sticks until Aug1st.

Jay

BITE ME !!

Down from the start & NON stop tot he close, But you already knew that
and of course you also know that's exact opposite to what my work told me for today

I wouldn't rule out a rebound open, but If that happens, I will be shorting it as I had expect to go short at todays , chhmmm highs

Time& cycles had posted a high for the 25th, and I had the 24th, - both of us appear wrong.

No I dont expect a big rebound tomorrow, on Friday.

More later
Jay

Jaywiz Index

Jaywiz Index = WOW WOW a whopping .88

Except for the open , most of tomorrow should be a screamer.

using Murrey math levels, the spx closed above 1281, and the next level is ( 1312 ) they might get to 1320 b4 giving up at least 1/2 of the day's gains


Spooz close virtually flat, but ndx is up 850
Ndx which was suffering on Tuesday, but came alive today

july24 is 8 day high
july25 is 9 day turn

Update in the AM if anything changes about the open.

best for now
Jay

Just as described

Nice volatility today as mentioned yesterday

Got in early and out late;

Tomorrow opens with a 90 bar cycle @ 10am and should slip into that low, but maybe not as severe as today.

but once again the day should recover and move higher.

today's Jaywiz Index is , Yup a wildly bullish @ 68, so whatever we got today is going to be superceded shortly;

remember that the 24th is an 8day high and the 9th is an 9 day turn, which could be higher intraday, or not.

Time and cycles has the 25th for a high and 8/1 as a low which is a solar eclipse day.

best for now
Jay

Timing stats

July 22nd = 110 tr days Feb 13

july 22 = 55 tr days May2nd

Wed = 89 tr days / march 17

But more important
24th is 8 day high
25th is 9 day Turn

24th is 90 tr days march 17
&
200 tr days oct10, 2007

24th is Midnite high and moon cycle high

Spx 50% retrace = 1320

Tomorrow could be day traders delight with large moves in both directions.

Jay

Slow DRIP

Not the kind of day to make a lot of $$

It would appear the 259 bar cycle truncated at Friday's close @ 252 bars,and according to Stan Harley who discovered this cycle, thats allowed as most cycle do expand and contract frequently.

reminder, in case you forgot~~~ALL BAR CYCLES ARE LOW POINTS

So what happened after? as long term readers know, the cycle starts over once 258 bars have completed.
Today's 30 bar cycle @ noon to 12:15
Today's 60 bar cycle was perfectly timed at 2;30 to 2:45

The closing Spooz are Minus 1250, and that should offer a sharply lower open, and almost vindicate my call for a dow off 200 pts. starting from the open today was 11,505 , we could be off 150 from that level at the start, but that should provide a very good opp to buy calls as the day should improve for a mid day high b4 dropping off.

Jaywiz Index is mildly bullish @ .43
Oex pc ratio = 1.20 ~ ditto
spx 500 pc ratio = 1.96 ~ ditto

Vix still dropping @ 23.05

Today was a 70 year Gann convergence. for whatever that might mean to some one.

Best for now
Jay

Bar cycle count

Friday was a difficult day to read the bar ccycles as they were not well defined.

However, as best as i can read, heres the cycles for Monday

258 b cycle @ 10am, AND if they make a deep cycle low at that point, it might be the LOD, but i doubt it as the
Sunday night 7 pm Spooz are virtually flat.

As long term readers know, the cycle starts over After 258Bars.

30bars now cycle @ 12:30
60bars cycle @ 3pm

you will remember the open on the 11th was exact @ 60bars, and can be quite exciting.

Im still expecting a lower day Monday, and a Lower open on Tuesday to buy calls at premium prices.

The week from there looks higher with a more solid runup on the 24th where a couple of geomag cycles converge.

Jay

rally will continue, but

The rebound will continue, but monday should offer about 200 dow pts OFF

From there, however, the rest of the week should trend higher to an SPX high of 1292 - 1320
Why those #s
240 pts was the loss
240 X 38.2 = 92 which is 1200 + 92
You can do the math for 50% retrace.

I was under the impression the market would drop into the Eclipse on Aug 1st, but that doesnt seem to be what we will witness.

What about oil? After Monday, it should continue to drop down to hopefully the $100 level or less.
Can you imagine were hoping for $100, amazing, last year we were UNhappy with $65 oil,,, Ggeeesh.


Jayiwz index this week;
mon = .23
Tues = .20
Wed = .41 ahah - see the rally firm up
Thurs = .25
Fri = .22
The BEAR pressure is still in effect, but might be weakening

best for now
Jay

Success

How many people in this world can prdict a 500 pt rally 2 days prior ???

Someone tell Donald Trump

No, never mind, I really want to keep this a secret

Now what; You ask

Casey lowers the boom, thats what

I told another member of a web group to expect OIL to drop like a rock the last 2 days , and of course to me that was a no brainer considering i was looking for a run up on the dow.

Today's low of day cycled @ 11:15 at 120 bars
another minor dip @ 160b at 2;45 - was supposed to be @ 1:45

The NEXT 2 days should sell off severely into monday

Best for now
Jay

good money day

today turned out to be a good trading day $$$$

Tomorrow should duplicate today till 3pm

Today's cycles
30b @ 10:20 today was a buy in , even tho I missed the earlier low
60b cycled @ 12;45, very minor dip
3;15 hit @ 90 b also

Im trying to reconcile another cycle today
11:45 & 2;15 were more prominent lows

spx should make it to 1271-1276 tomorrow at its highs.

Jay

rally continues

Even tho Im fighting it in my mind, the data i rely on says we go up thru the 17th.

Full moon on 18th @ 3am influences the 17th as positive

I dont know If I will buy the open lower today or not, but according to my data, I should.

18th calls for BE FLEXIBLE, and to me that means a CHANGE in direction.

Jay