Closing statement

Occasionally the 259 bar cycle turns in an acceleration of the trend as it appears to have done today.
And that works in both directions.

The openning today marked 210 bars and that open got hit with a 5 min sharp dip.

Today at 2:26 pm the marekt hit it last gasp and started its downward trip to Jan 4th.

I ve mentioned the 259 bar cycle many times.
its 12 bars per hour on the 5 min chart and 78 bars per day.
Normally the cycle marks a low at fibo levels of 126 and 204
However, I have observed MANY times, there are signifigant lows at 90/180bars.

Once you have observed those points, you will get the hang of it.
Im sure If your day trading index options this tool is invaluable.

Its a rythm that is clearly observable.

I bot puts at 2:30pm, and missed the best possible price by a few minutes, but Im satisfied as the close added value to my purchase.

PLEASE note that I will NOT be posting anything next week, unless I can get to a computer, but for the most part, I will be on vacation.

Jay

update 12/29

The market is CLOSED on Jan 2nd for Pres Ford memorial.

That means anything it was destined to do on the 2nd will now have to take place on the 3rd.
2 days for one.
The Wave count will not be denied

Still expecting a serious decline on 3rd and now most of 4th

259 bars is supposed to occur today at 1:30- which is right now as I write, and the dow is off about .50 cts and spx off 1.44.

In order to advance the bar count, it has to be valid for that time slot, or within an hour each way.

If it occurs NOW at 1:30, then we move the count forward to THURSDAY for 180 bars at 1:30pm, and According to Stan Harley its possible the low would occur at 204 bars which would be at 3:30
My guess as it stands right now is 3:30PM
but next Thursday is a long way off.

Best wishes for new year
Jay

Year end update

So far we are right on target for another new high probably tomorrrow Friday Dec 29th- last day of trading for 2006.

First week of Jan 2007 still on target for heavy selling 2nd to part of 4th.

Can't say where the low would be , but spx 1390 would probably be a likely target.
1444, if we get there tomorrow -1390 = 54 x 8 = 432 dow pts?? just a guess

Today has 180 bars at 1:30pm and should mark the days low;

Im GLAD and surprised they wont be closing the market for Pres Ford's funeral, but just as well, we dont need another off day.
Jay

Xmas update

I seem to be updating more often than I thought I would, but thats OK with you , Im sure.

The market performed exactly as indicated and still might have a bit more sloppyness on the 26th before finding its footing.

PC ratios are thru the roof and as indicated screaming BUY.

A must read daily is CARL Futia- Accordingly, He is projecting a low on the SPX at 1405which is only about 5 pts lower and an = dow would be about 40 pts. That takes the dow to 12,300 area which had previosuly been posted.

From that level, Carl has projected a rally to 1455 on the spx futures = spx 1444 cash = dow to 12,600

A BIG change is overdue and MY work indicates the FIRST week in Jan 2007 will set the tone for the whole month and it should be substantially lower by months end.
Jay

Xmas trading

As previously indicated there is some evidence via Planet Index A ,cycles,elliott,astro, etc, that the market should sell off the next 3 days.

Carl Futia showing down to SPX 1405

I do expect a big YEAR END rally THEN to be met with a FIRST week of 2007 equally BUT- IN REVERSE.

Jay

DEC 19 added comment

Actually the 90 bars did hit at the OPEN today.- not an acceleration, but a true LOW at 90 bars at 9:35.
Then look at 1:15 which would add 45 bars to the low at that point.
The Acceleration UPWARD began right after 235 bars at 1:15

Looking at the PC ratios, we could envision a stalemate today. They are MUCH too high to get anything rolling lower.

BTW, if your a day trader, you might want to consider using Stan Harley's 259 bar RYTHM cycle. Im sure it would help.
Jay

DEC 19 comment

The Stan Harley 259 bar rythm hit today at the open and it was a 180 bar acceleration of the trend- DOWN.

There is a 259 bar cycle at 4pm Today and it will be fascinating to see if its another such acceleration.

The 37 tr day cycle is Thursday along with a Mars Square Uranus, and as PREVIOUSLY indicated, should mark a trading low.

The ACTUAL LOW should occur on Friday at the NEXT 180 bar cycle hit at 11:30 AM

Jay

DEC 19 comment

The Stan Harley 259 bar rythm hit today at the open and it was a 180 bar acceleration of the trend- DOWN.

There is a 259 bar cycle at 4pm Today and it will be fascinating to see if its another such acceleration.

The 37 tr day cycle is Thursday along with a Mars Square Uranus, and as PREVIOUSLY indicated, should mark a trading low.

The ACTUAL LOW should occur on Friday at the NEXT 180 bar cycle hit at 11:30 AM

Jay

Market direction next 45 days

Without going into detail as to how I arrive at these dates, just let it be known that much thought and research goes into this outlook.

DEc 15 should be the HIGH of the year
Dec 21/22 is next turn and it should be a LOW point.
Dec 29 should finish the year retesting the highs

Jan 2007
Jan 2-3-4 should sell off severely
5th to 12 th look like rebounding
Jan 17-18 should find some selling
Jan 26th next high
Jan 29/30 DOWn again
thats all for now folks;
I know I'll be keeping track of this myself, as it helps to understand and stay on track when something doesn't quite go the way I envisioned it.
Bests wishes
Jay

option week

Market hits new high, but you already knew that. DOW 12,416
whats next you ask? -- lets explore
Merc Square Urnaus at 10 am- bearish tone
18 day cycle hits today at 2pm - could be last gasp high
markets usually find a low withing 5 trade days after this cycle. = Dec 22nd
90 bars hits at 3pm- could be the low of the day
OEX pc ratio 1.15 not bullish, but not very bearish either
CBOE pc ratio .74-- very bearish
SPX 500 PC ratio = .63 very bearish
So we do have bearish overtones the day after most index options expire.
Jay

Market Direction

It appears there will be no sell off this OPTIONS week.

The PC ratios are much too high, indicating TOO MANY BEARS and sentiment wont let the market dive.

As for ASTRO, the SUN conjuncts Jupiter on Monday at 9:37, indicating a CHANGE

The new moon is on the 21st

Mars Squares Uranus on the 22nd

Since the 1st provided a LOW, we should consider the 14th-15 as the high, and 22nd as another low

Looks like Those 20 and 72 week lows appear they will occur NEXT week.

market phenomena

The 259 bar cycle typically has 2 mid points.
90 AND 180 bars
90 bars hit exactly at 12;30 today
180 bars hits tomorow- WED at 1:30pm
and 259 hits on Thursday along with the 18 day, 87 hr cycle BOTH at 2pm

The Magnetormer planetary index is an 8 tomorrow, which is not necesarily very high, but could see the dow down more than today.

another stopping LOW point is at 204 bars, which does hit at 4 pm tomorrow.
It remains to be seen which cycle will hit the lows.

Jay

market phenomena

The 259 bar cycle typically has 2 mid points.
90 AND 180 bars
90 bars hit exactly at 12;30 today
180 bars hits tomorow- WED at 1:30pm
and 259 hits on Thursday along with the 18 day, 87 hr cycle BOTH at 2pm

The Magnetormer planetary index is an 8 tomorrow, which is not necesarily very high, but could see the dow down more than today.

another stopping LOW point is at 204 bars, which does hit at 4 pm tomorrow.
It remains to be seen which cycle will hit the lows.

Jay

Week of DEC 13th

1 .this week represents a 20 wk, or 5 month cycle from the June13/14th LOWS.

2. Interesting phenomana occuring in conjunction with the above cycle.
259 bars hit at 12.15 today, Monday, Dec 11.
Extend from there to Thursday = the next 259 bars cycle at 2pm, along with an 18 day cyle hit at exactly the same time.

3. Carl Futia changed his tune and now expects a small dip to 1400, then to 1437.- BUT FIRST A down day.
4. Merlin shows the market down till Thursday- could take out 40 spx pts.

5. Alphie Lavoies black box INVERTED shows a major dive thru the 14th.

6. Fed meets Tuesday. Last time they met the market rewarded them with a 200 pt rally- Might be just the opposite this week.
Jay

Dec 7th market update

This morning at 10am the market pushed to a new intraday high- That event ocurred right on the 75-77 hour cycle HIGH from Nov 20th.

Whats NEXT?

Well, now that the cycle high has passed, we might start to look for an avalanche

Will the JOBS report be the SPARK? I guess it depends on how the report is viewed with the FED interest rates in mind.

The 11th and 12th has been posted by others as a possible sell off.

There is critical support at 1380, and then 1340 after that

My own work NOW indicates, that IF a selloff starts Tomorrow, it could continue to Wed AM.

Jay

Whats next Ms Market ?

November 3rd full moon low did NOT duplicate for December 4th, but might have been just the opposite- a short term top.

Its now mid day on the 5th and the sentiment has been shifting toward bullish as the OEX pc ratio is more bearish so far today.

New moons and full moons do tend to find the markets making directional changes.

There is a 77 hr cycle due on the 7th.
There is an energy cycle hitting some high numbers similar to May 10-11 which took the dow down about 300 pts in 2 days- Will that occur in next 2 days?

Thats what the planetary index seems to be indicating, and if so will still setup a rebound on the 8th to the 15th.
Jay

Market confirmation

Its now Friday almost 11am, and the dow is down 92 pts

As stated, friday SHOULD be a part of the decline to Monday DEc 4th FULL MOON low;
also coincides with 180 Stan Harley cycle bars at 4pm.

From there, we should expect a rebound in Elliott wave fashion of 3 waves to mid month, OPTION expiration HIGH.

Should go like this.
DEC 4th LOW
UP to Dec 6th
Dec 7th OFF day
DEc 11 HIGHer
DEc 12= OFF DAY
Dec 15th HIGH of month.

Jay