RISK verses REWARD

So whats the risk tomrrow and or Friday?
150 pts down to the 12,116 intraday low of the 27th.
with LOW volume the dow should never get there.

The effects of the 27th will end pretty much as a one day event. FOR NOW.

The Techncals are way way way OVERSOLD and screaming BUY
The only thing holding them back is the WAVE count needs to be completed.

The question becomes when to BUY
Ive posted NOON a few times and that still looks optimum

Buy in stages or all at once? thats a tough question.
With MINIMAL risk, however, the reward should be OK- either way.
Im guessing the spx wants to make it to at least the old high at 1525, and that would take the dow to 13K.
My date for that event is March 16th., which is also a SOLAR Eclipse- also can be a high energy event.

CHris Carolyn has been using the lunar events for years and is a very sucessful analyst.

Full moon Eclipse (this wkend) are usually energizing events and I would venture to guess Friday could be a fairly strong day. The 1st and 2nd days of a new month do tend to be strong UP days.

Im using the QLD to buy the market long- ITS a 2X ETF and has some very good percentage gains.
It is also quite liquid. & Orders get executed immediately if placed at market.

Best wishes and thanks for visiting
I hope you are getting some value from this blog.
Jay

What NOW brown COW ?

The Internals are SCREAMING BUY just as one wouldd expect and we are getting a little lift so far today and its now NOON on THE DAY AFTER-
Arms daily index was a WHOPPING 14.90
5 day arms = 382.4
5 day trin = 19.12
10 day trin = 236.2
THESE are HUGE BUY SIGNALS

What did all that noise MEAN anyway?
CONSIDER yesterday A HARBINGER of things to come, but NOT RIGHT NOW.

Im still on a BUY for tomorrow at NOON, and PATIENTLY waiting it out.

Jay

Hooray for Greeny, & ME TOO

As I have been saying for the past week, look out for Feb 27th !!

On track for a low today, slop around tomorrow, AND gettting ready to BUY on MARCH 1st.

204 bars hits at 3pm on WED along with an 18 day HIGH to LOW cycle from FEB1st.

259 bars hits at noon on Thursday and the market should LIFT OFF from there to March 9th

A little SELL OFF could occur on the 12th and part of the 13th, but there is still another high waiting in the wings after that- ending on March 16th.

I dont want to get to far ahead, but heres some dates to watch.
March 16 HIGH
April4th LOW
April 20 HIGH
NOTE OF CAUTION -IN between April 4th and 20 could be very choppy- Its the kind of market that chews up both bulls and bears
Remind of this statement when we get there- THANKS in advance
April 20 to May 20th stands a better chance of a bigger correction time period.

Jay

AS EXPECTED

Today went well

Just as the 11 am and 259 bar cycle hit, our old friend Greeny spoke up.
Irrational exhuberance --BAH Humbug!!

The actual low of the day hit at about 30 bars in the new cycle at 1PM

Tommorw should be the climactic sell off PLUS provide WED with a hangover headache as it tries to recover.
204 bars hits at 3pm along with an 18 day cycle HIGH TO LOW from FEb 1st.

The BUY trigger should come at noon on Thursday when 259 bars passes by.

I know there are always going to be those who predict the end of the world is coming
But the power is in Jupiter and Saturn cycle as it has been for about 2 years now, and there is more juice left in the bottle.

Kondrateif wave indicates we are in the Autumn season of the wave, and the BIG DIP "WINTER "doesnt appear till 2010.

Jay

just as prescribed

Friday did follow Almost the same deal as Thursday

LOOK at those PC ratios SCREAMING BUY
BUT NOT JUST YET , says the market.

Monday SHOULD OPEN fairly strong, but give it up after 1pm
Tuesday should take a good hit
Wed needs time to recover from Tuesday
Wed is 18 days from the Feb 1st high to LOW cycle and 3pm = 204 bars.

Could struggle a bit till Merc turns DIRECT on7th, and could blast off from there.

Gold might have more to go- tends to CHANGE trends around the lunar events and next month we have eclipses on 3rd and 16th.

Both equities and gold did hit peaks in May 2006 just b4 the full moon on May 13th and NEXT MONTH could be a repeat.
Jay

Deals the same hand tomorrow

looks like tomorrow should do just about the same thing as today.

There are some lunar squares mid day with 204 bars hitting at 1:30 to 2pm

From there they could recover
The NASDAQ is holding up much better then the Dow.

Carl had mentioned 1845 for the nasdaq

Spx has a ways to go toget to 1470- I dont think they can do it, but the PC ratios are still too high and that means they are bullish.

We have opposing forces limiting the run in either direction.

Next week looks like a rebound high point at 1pm on Monday, and thne they should tumble on Tuesday

Intraday update

90 bars hit at 11:30 - the dow was off 88,
Isnt it funny how IRAN news comes out just as the 90 bar cycle takes effect.
the NASDAQ off only 9
NDX off 6
Neither one matched the depth of the dow low.

The next important time zone should be 2:32 where there is a lunar urnaus sextile
and there is nothing now to stop the close from a full recovery.

PC ratios still indicating pessimism to keep this afloat

But the trading atmosphere should show some more severe changes tomorrow with NO recovery
at the end of the day.

Carl and Ethan both indicating a short term top on gold, and I agree.
SOLD all my gold mining shares today, and will look to buy them back around May4th.
Gold should settle back to the 550 level, but thats only a guess based on what ive read from other analysts.
Jay

struggle

Last 2 days have been a struggle

The PC ratios are still much too high for a serious sell off

Merlin shows UP all week

Astro indicates a high Thursday as the SUn/ Merc conjunction hits late on 22nd

Might NOt start a serious decline until after 1pm on the 26th, but Friday Feb 23 could start some selling.

I mentioned the Bradley indiator last week and posted March 15th, when IT should have been FEB 15th, NOW looks LIKE IT WAS Feb 12th, and next big date from what Im reading from various sources are calling FEB 23 and or 26th IMPORTANT cycle convergences.

Carl still looking for SPX 1470

Jay

No CHANGES

I dont expect anything to change from now till Next Friday on what Ive already written.

A Sun conj Merc is often found near market highs and next week is on the 22nd at midnite.

Today is starting sloppy and has a minor lunar aspect at 10;15 along with 106 bars

The day closes with 174 bars which is NOT 180 ,but might be close enuf, and since the market is CLOSED Monday, will not feel the full effects from the Venus Pluto Square.

So we should see a somewhat weak day , but nothing to make money on is you want to go short, but If yor looking to buy, the 4pm time zone might provide the best opp

Jay

I really blew that one

I misread my signals no excuse tho- I blew it;

So- whats next?/
PC ratios still TOO high for sell off and pesimism continues to FUEL the rally.
Bradley date of March 15th now looks like it HIT on the 12th.
Ian's date of 14th at 10 am hit along with 204 bars and we all watched the Bernanke rally.

Still expecting a soft open lasting till about noon on Thursday

Rally from there should carry to either 1pm or 3pm on Friday-- BUT- 259 bars at 2pm could start a downtrend.

Monday under the spell of a venus Square pluto and should markdown some of last week's gains.

AFTER MONDAY -- Expect the markets to SURGE higher ALL next week

Gold should also move up with stocks and that should be good for mining shares.
Jay

RALLY- just as indicated

WE got the OBLIGATORY 100 dow points today.
Not a new high for spx nor dow

PC ratios could be indicating some selling tomorrow along with the
readings im getting .

Merc goes RETRO at midnight tonight and that event is usually good for a swift change of direction.
Im counting 13.3 days to Thrusday's low from Jan 26th.

If Im right, the LOW should occur on Thursday at NOON to 1pm.

From there a rally should move the market up thru Friday's close

Monday FEb 19th could also be a KNOCK down day, but the rest of the week should be up days.

IF's and Maybe's

If you came to watch paint dry, then you were in the right place today.
The PROBLEM- I have readings for Monday and Tuesday that appear to be in reversed order.
Mon = $ improves- then - Tues = Stagnent - so flip them around since today was Stagnent.

I now must respect Charts Edge graph for a quick dip Tuesday by 10 AM, and IMPROVING during the day -Tuesday.
The bar count has not been as exact as prior experiences and today hit a low at 2:30 which I counted as 102 bars, thus tomorrow at 10 am counts as 126 bars, and could set the low of the day.

SIDE NOTE -My curser has never frozen as many times as it has today???

WEd should start DOWN as 204 bars hits at 10am.
MKT Could linger most of the day until getting past 259 bars at 2:30

Jay

Astro wins out

Today was marked by a SUN opposition to Saturn occuring tomorrow.

A Similar effect that occured on Jna25th that had a Saturday mars Sesquadrate to Saturn

Fascinating also that today's drop off hit at 259 bars and the 3pm low hit at 30 bars in the NEXT 259 bar cycle.

There is a 60 bar hit on Monday at 11am along with a Lunar square to Venus, the money & love planet.
IT also looked like the decline so far encompassed 4 waves leaving an openning for wave 5, but that might be muted to about 20pts matching today's low.

IF all that happens as described above, then we SHOULD see a nice rally day.

Jay

259 BARS

259 bars hit at 12:30 today and so did the start of a plunge, maybe 100+ pts by the close

I dont expect anything dramatic this month as far as declines

Will have to wait till after March 16th

Jay

Getting READY to SLIDE

The MARKET is following the Bradley chart with amazing accuracy so far this yr.
However, it looks like it will DIVERGE on March 16th to April 20

Im expecting a turn HERE today , Feb 7th at 2pm and a slide into Feb 15th.

From there they should run up to new highs again on March 16th.

Jay

EUPHORIA ABOUNDS

Bradley psychology indicator shows a high on Feb 4th and a low on Feb15th

The EUPHORIA on CNBC yesterday was obvious.

Full moon last night as previously mentioned might cycle out a short term high as well.

Still got more highs to go afterward thru March 16th.
How much higher will depend on how much technical damdage is done in the next 2 weeks.

Jay

BEARISH SENTIMENT

The bearish sentiment is beginning to wane.
The higher the indexes, the more BULLISH the market, as it feeds off the bearish sentiment.
Monday's PC ratios were cboe .96 - spx500 -2.44 -oex - 1.19
Tuesday ----------------------------------.93 ------------ 2.63 --------- 1.59
WEd ---------------------------------------.77 -------------- 1.67 ---------1.16
Thurs At 10am -----------------------.65 --------------- .91 -----------1.30
The SPX 500 tells the story
Today at 11 AM marks the 78 HOUR cycle that STILL appears to be in control on a HIGH to HIGH from Jan 12th at 4pm.
Tomorrow marks an 16 to 18 day low to Low cycle from Jan 5 to 9
Still expecting higher highs to run up to March 16th

Jay