THE BULL

The Bull should show more strength into Monday AM before turning back for a couple days

PC ratios indicate a higher market tomrrow plus other evidence leads me to think that way also.

Last day and first day of month syndrome usually are up days

Some charts are showing the market on a bull run thru 2010- which supports my previous announcement that the dow shold get to 18,000 by 2010 or possibly higher. Gold could also go parabolic in 2009. Does that mean the demise of the $$$---?????

Best Wishes
Jay

Higher highs still coming

NO, I havent turned into a raging bull, but you cant stop a freight train with your words

However, we should see dow 38,300 coniciding with spx 1555 most likely by Monday

As written b4, a couple days off on June 5&6

A 25 year TOP might form up bewtween June 14 and 22nd.

One group of ratios that have been very consistently bullish are the DAILY PC ratios on the CBOE, SPX, and OEX. Which basically means as long as there is DOUBT, the markets will move up against it.

With that noted, we should look for the first signs of a TOP with the publication of GOOD NEWS in some of the major newspapers, reflecting NO FEAR. - a contrary indicator. Ackowledging the BULL by the MEDIA does indicate the general public has taken notice.

And NOW that the DOW has climbed to outrageous highs, THEY WANT TO GET IN.- buy at any price, just like housing- it doesnt matter what we pay for it, we can FLIP it overnite for a quick PROfit.
WORKS in reverse at bottoms- they cant wait to get out.-sell at any price.

GREED AND FEAR in action
Greed is fear of losing out on a good thing
Fear is fear of losing more.

As Always,
Best Wishes
Jay

Highs are coming

204 bars mid day low hit right at 2pm

The NEXT peak is DUE about noon on Monday, June 4th

After a couple days off, the rally should resume to June 14th.

June 13/14 is the Bradley change date and might be the high of the year, if not then June 22nd is another candidate.
Still got my radar screen targetted for June 25 to 29th for a strong setback
Best Wishes
Jay

Whats Next?

Always hard to pinpoint exact stock movement;

Today is starting lower and the readings I have gotten confirm that

Yesterday got a low at 2pm right at 126 bars or a close out of hte 329 bar cycle

That indicates the next low at 204 bars or 2pm today. THEN 126 bars tomorrow at 1:30 friday.

That could be a short term swing low into a Monday high
Best wishes
Jay

PC ratios

PC ratios are much too high to allow any setback today, unless they use up the oversold volume in the first hour.

Cboe PC raio = 1.20 bullish
OEX pc ratio = 1.06 neutral
SPX 500 ratio = 4.83 VERY BULLISH

And this is AFTER option week.
Best Wishes
Jay

259 bar cycle

Yesterday showed a 180 bar low at 1pm and 204 bar low at 3 pm

Today's market should start to recede after 10:53am

Either the 25th or 29th should provide a trading low
Im leaning toward the 29th and a HUGE rebound on the 31st, a FULL MOON- actually its a BLUE moon as we had 2 fulll moons this month.

259 bars at 12:30 pm today might act as a trigger for a decline today.
Next cycle = 30 bars at 3pm

Mclellan Oscilator has been reported at -100 & shows DISTRIBUTION is going on- This action is FOUND at TOPS

Internals showing weaker market daily, and that scenario can last for weeks. Internals prior to Feb 27th showed me EXTREME weakness and I reported it the WEEK BEFORE. I will do the same for June 25th.

All that is required for a very sharp retreat is some kind of trigger.
Feb 27th had NO outside influence- NO international event- NO economic event.

June 25th has the same hidden influence that occured on FEb 27th, and that would suggest a horrific decline on the 25th and continuing all that week

This week should settle back some and have at least a one day decline of 2% to 3 %

Best Wishes
Jay

cycle Update

cycles suggest a CHANGE today about MID DAY
And biased lower all week.

Jay

Major trends

Robert Minor made public a report last week that could have some merit.
Claims we are approaching a 25 year cycle TOP this June to July
1932+ 25 = 1957+ 25 = 1982 + 25 = 2007
using math and Elliott wave, he has those conclusions.

Heres some interesting numbers
Dow in Aug 1982 was a low of 780
780 x 2 = 1560 which could become the SPX high in June
If 1560 is the high, then the dow at 8X the spx should make it to 13,800

When waves crash on shore, they break about 100 yards from shore. As they approach shore, they become smaller until they trickle on the sand. The market is built the same way. heres an example
DATE---- DOW------ARMS---A/ D ratio-- Vol ratio---Arms 5--Trin 5---Trin 10
4/25---13105---102-----844------1112-----76.6----3.83-----79.8
5/7----13313----75-------806------1116---78.2-----3.91------85.5
5/9----13363----82------641------790-----83.6- ----4.18-----90.6
5/18-13556-- 58------511-------784------70.8-----3.54------91.5

each DOW wave higher is acompanied with less strength.

If june 14th does produce the 25 yr top, we can then expect lower lows till later in the year, and after an interim rebound thru may of2008, the next major LOW turning point could come in Nov of 2008.

The GOOD news is that BIZ on the street should IMPROVE dramatically as the market falls.
WHY does it work that WAY?? Some would say the market looks 6 months to one yr ahead. SO if that is COMMON thinking, then the next 6 months to one yr should offer much better economics for retail, autos, etc. Hopefully the CYCLE peak would simultaneously occur for OIL as well.

Best Wishes
Jay

Whats NEXT ?

Next weeks influence on WED May 10th is indicating a CHANGE, unexpected events, a genuine SHAKE UP.

Exactly what that means is anybody's guess, but it does spell out a REAL change in direction is going to hit stocks on MAY 10th.

That event should continue to trouble stocks till at least the 18th, where there is a harmonic cluster of hard influences that wkend.

After the 18th, obviously we should see NEGATIVE sentiment thru the roof. ENUF so to provide a powerful rebound.

AS previously mentioned, the Bradley date of June 14th is shown on the charts as a high, and I really wont dispute that position , but theres June8th that needs to be reconciled first, and I dont think june 8th will be a high.

SO, will June 14th be a rebound high within a DECLINING market? thats something we will be watching for. June 25th has the same influence that HIT FEB 27th, and the outlook is about the same or worse.

Summary
May 10 watch your step to May 14th LOW
May 18 possibly lower after brief rebound mid week.
June 4th rebound high
June 14th LOW
june 22nd rebound high
june 25th LOOK OUT BELOW
best wishes
Jay

Stock Market dis-associated with REALITY

In 1992, I was involved with mortgages as the LOWER interest rates were allowing us to refi many
8 to 12 % mortgages down to as low as 4% for variables.
What the did is put Billions back into the hands of homeowners and consumers- THEY SPENT AND INVESTED and the BOOM market of the 90's exploded till Yr 2000. The INFLATED house prices then took over after the 2002 low and provided the Fuel for the current bull trend.

NOW we have JUST the opposite, but its not coming from low interest rates. HIGH GAS prices , homeowner Insurance and taxes is GOING to CHOKE this market once REALITY hits it. When ??? YOU ask- Wait- I will consult my crystal ball- OOOPS, its broken (G) Sorry, but I couldnt resist.

The consumer is aleady biting the bullet and it can be seen in Auto sales and general retail sales.
Actually retail sales have been declining for 3 years.

So, what is the market doing?? Ignoring the obvious?? maybe so??
The STOCK market is making up for lost time- Real estate prices went thru the roof from 2002 to 2006, and the Neptune opposition to Saturn put a STOP on that run. Whatever was INFLATED has begun to DEFLATE.
Since STOCKS are continuing to rise, it appears they are NOT inflated in relation to real estate.So where is the TOP ??, and WHEN ?? you ask.

Ive mentioned it b4, Jan 2010 and dow 18,000 is my time and price target.
Now that the cats out of the bag,

BUT thats a long way off, and we need to deal with next week.\

Monday SHOULD start with a WHOLLAP and be off at least 100 pts in the AM.
but should recover to top off the tank on Tuesday.

WEd to Monday May 14th in the AM should take away a good portion of the last 2 weeks gains, maybe back to the 12,900 level. but thats only a guess. Pinpoint the lower channel line.

Best Wishes
Jay

Where have ALL the BULLS gone?

The Next 2 days might look like the bulls got LOCKED up in the bull pen.

The BRADLEY date of May 4th or 6th is always plus or minus and IF today turns out to be the intrady print high, then we should consider May 3rd as the actual date. ONLY time will show us the real turn date.

that highly positive influence is sandwiched among heavy duty negatives. That energy generated may have already played itself out.

May 7th and 8th Have the POTENTIAL to make the bears cry again. BUY Any gains might be short lived as the next 10 days after and thru the 18th are wrot with potholes.

Occasionally, in giant bull markets like this one, the bears do take control for a brief period of time, and I think we will see that AFTER the 8th.
Best Wishes
Jay

STill Moving UP

For NOW, there are many who are waiting for what we all know is coming;
Its not a matter of IF, but WHEN

Many of my associates and other analysts have all been reading possible tops, but the market just doesnt want to listen.

Not much is going to change until AFTER May 5th, which is just around the corner
There is a strong positive influence on Saturday which has appeared a few times during this market run from 2002 lows.

The bradley date is also this wkend and It is showing on the charts as a low, but thats NOT going to be the case. It could represent a serious turning point as there are some stronger negative influences appearing next week, especially on the 10th

The 8th also has some positive influences but they occur after market closing, so they might not be as strong as they look on paper.

If the JUNE 24th Bradley date inverts, as did the May6th date , then that date "COULD" provide a more serious low point.
BEST WISHES
Jay