LOWER away

WE got to SPX1290 on the 23rd with a close of 1282
then 1234 on the 28th and 1284 on the 30th

It looks like an ABC rebound off the 15th low of spx 1200 intrady.

SO now we have the potential to take out 1200 in the next few days

Today closed as expected

tomorrow indicates lower all day with a last hour potential rally

180 bars @ 1:30
204 bars @ 3:30

Fascinating time coordination this week
Monday LOD @ 3:50pm
Tuesday HOD @ 3;50pm
Wed HOD @ 10:30am
Thurs HOD @ 10:30am

Huge multiple time convergence on the 6th
Best for now
Jay

july 15 low

What we have is WILD swings in a series of A-B-C's
You can clearly see 3 wave structures in both directions, or at least I can.

the july 15 low and subsequent rebound is still in effect and hasn't finished its trip to the top of the mountain.
But As for tomorrow, I have preliminary indications of a low @ 3:30pm at 126 bars, and You can see the potential for a DOWN leg to complete another 3 wave structure.

spx lost 240 pts may 19 to july15
240 x 38.2 =92 + 1200 = 1292, and we almost got that today.

A 50% rebound = 120 + 1200 = 1320, and that could be the final goal, BUT NOT tomorrow

New moon solar eclipse should set the stage for tomorrow's, among other data that I have accumulated.

Jay

Aug 6th time conversion

34 tr days from Jne19
55 from May19, a high
81 from Apr10, a high
110 from Feb 27, a high
117 from Nov 26, a low
122 from Feb13, a high

Eclipse date is Aug 1st @ 6am
Aug 6th = Mars 180 Uranus @2:38 pm
Merc 180 Nptune @ 2:42 pm

readings that week are wild;
Monday, Aug4th calls for a roller coaster type day, which, imo, hold onto your _____
Tuesday Aug 6th reads Improvement over yesterday
Wed Aug 6th calls for Accidents, tempers & highly volitile
Thurs & fri are rebounds.

As for today, we got exactly what was expected. a 10:30 HOD failed to hold and they are selling off dramatically and will continue into the 31st;
Bar cycle for 31st = 126 b @ 3:30 which should provide a low .

best for now
Jay

Eclipses

August 1st and Aug 16th
August 30th a second new moon in one month. very rare occasion

As projected , the market had a good day today
the HIGH jaywiz index readings did show its stuff today- delayed reaction

Many major declines or so called crashes have occurred during eclipse months, usually b4 or after.
Jan 22nd was a full moon, but the eclipse was on FEb 6th, 15 days later.

This time, however, we have a Mars 180 Uranus in between on Aug 6th, and that could tip the scales in favor of a large decline starting on the 4th.

I can't stress this time period more. as it might be one of the most important market events this year.

Today's rally into the CLOSE was helped along by a Sun 0 Merc @ 4:05pm, just for those of you who still dont understand the relationships of our planet to the cosmos.

Science has many studies linking solar and cosmic forces effecting our planet, especially people and behavior.

heres a bit of news - LA quake 5.8 talk about cosmic forces-- whew

Jaywiz index today = .26
CBOE pc ratio = .84
OEX pc ratio = 1.00
but more important SPDR ratio = .80, a drop from 3.27 yesterday

Oil down to 122, looks ready to give a $5.00 pop
Gold down $60 in so many days also might pop

best for now
Jay

power is upside

the 29th has potential to rebound all day.

I will buy on a lower open and most likely sell the close

One day rebound is overdue

the Jaywiz index = .29, not strong by any means, but dont forget we had 3 high readings last week, and in my experience, there is sometimes a delayed reaction

Spdr pc ratio which was 1.00 on Friday is now a whopping 3.27= a buy

Arms index = 1.65 and that indicates a lot more selling to follow, but not tmorrow.
Thursday's arms index was also only 1.57

Note : In order to get a strong bottom we need to see the one day ARMS index
of at least 3.00 or higher and would be even better back to back.
Thats called a CLIMACTIC ending when yuo get 3 days back to back with high Arms ratios

We could get that on the Aug 4th to 6th action

best for now
Jay

down monday indicated

Preliminary indications are for a down Monday
Jaywiz index = .34 mildly negative

It looks like the Jaywiz Index high numbers earlier this week had little effect as the SPX 1290 threashold resistence level might have been the top of a 90 point rebound

PC ratio = .83 and is negative
Vix = 22.91
Spdr ratio = 1.00
SPX 500 ratio = 1.25
OEX ratio = .35 and is extremely bearish, if I got the right data.

Consider the LOD was at 3:30 and the 30 b low cycle @ 2pm, then in my experience, the trend is still DOWN

The 60 b cycle is @ 10am and indicates a sharply lower open as we also watched that occur recently as i mentioned last week.

The Eclipse on 8/1 at 6am seems to be a natural magnet for a low as most new moons seem to be, but this one is enhanced by the solar eclipse.

Aug 4th to 6th has some heavy dute astro events which could settle the dispute over the bottoming process

best for now
Jay

Noon on July25th

YO can see a number of thisngs from this chart

1. the OBV is DROPPING

2. the Ult oscilator is declining

3. the dow made a second attemtpt to move higher but stopped at the 85 level, and the balance of the day should attemtpt to stay afloat

The 258 bar count cycle was @ 11:30. and there was a low at that time point, but he dow is dropping lower AFTER the completed 258 bar cycle, and is starting a new one & going lower.

A LOWER close today spells a very serious day for Monday.

best for now

Jay

Another view

You can also view this week's drop off as an ABC
today would be looked as an X wave
that leaves another potential ABC for next week

which means at least another 350 dow points or more
best for now
Jay

SPX sell signal

Thanks to Ethan, this chart shows the SPX has broken support and is now on a SELL

Jay

today's potential

This week off the intraday highs on Wed.

Dow High = 11,697

Dow Low yesterday = 11,348

Difference = 350 pts

From high to low looks like 3 waves

that means to day is wave 4

wave 4 can reach 38.2% of the loss

350 x 38.2% = 134 pts + 13348= 11482 is the highest potential

the first rally got to 11,443 which = 103pts = 29%

is that enuf? -- maybe

Once wave 4 is complete, they give it up to wave 5 which usually = wave 1 but could also be mcu worse.

We have some indications that show the market dropping all next week, with of course soem intraday lifts, but nothing that sticks until Aug1st.

Jay

BITE ME !!

Down from the start & NON stop tot he close, But you already knew that
and of course you also know that's exact opposite to what my work told me for today

I wouldn't rule out a rebound open, but If that happens, I will be shorting it as I had expect to go short at todays , chhmmm highs

Time& cycles had posted a high for the 25th, and I had the 24th, - both of us appear wrong.

No I dont expect a big rebound tomorrow, on Friday.

More later
Jay

Jaywiz Index

Jaywiz Index = WOW WOW a whopping .88

Except for the open , most of tomorrow should be a screamer.

using Murrey math levels, the spx closed above 1281, and the next level is ( 1312 ) they might get to 1320 b4 giving up at least 1/2 of the day's gains


Spooz close virtually flat, but ndx is up 850
Ndx which was suffering on Tuesday, but came alive today

july24 is 8 day high
july25 is 9 day turn

Update in the AM if anything changes about the open.

best for now
Jay

Just as described

Nice volatility today as mentioned yesterday

Got in early and out late;

Tomorrow opens with a 90 bar cycle @ 10am and should slip into that low, but maybe not as severe as today.

but once again the day should recover and move higher.

today's Jaywiz Index is , Yup a wildly bullish @ 68, so whatever we got today is going to be superceded shortly;

remember that the 24th is an 8day high and the 9th is an 9 day turn, which could be higher intraday, or not.

Time and cycles has the 25th for a high and 8/1 as a low which is a solar eclipse day.

best for now
Jay

Timing stats

July 22nd = 110 tr days Feb 13

july 22 = 55 tr days May2nd

Wed = 89 tr days / march 17

But more important
24th is 8 day high
25th is 9 day Turn

24th is 90 tr days march 17
&
200 tr days oct10, 2007

24th is Midnite high and moon cycle high

Spx 50% retrace = 1320

Tomorrow could be day traders delight with large moves in both directions.

Jay

Slow DRIP

Not the kind of day to make a lot of $$

It would appear the 259 bar cycle truncated at Friday's close @ 252 bars,and according to Stan Harley who discovered this cycle, thats allowed as most cycle do expand and contract frequently.

reminder, in case you forgot~~~ALL BAR CYCLES ARE LOW POINTS

So what happened after? as long term readers know, the cycle starts over once 258 bars have completed.
Today's 30 bar cycle @ noon to 12:15
Today's 60 bar cycle was perfectly timed at 2;30 to 2:45

The closing Spooz are Minus 1250, and that should offer a sharply lower open, and almost vindicate my call for a dow off 200 pts. starting from the open today was 11,505 , we could be off 150 from that level at the start, but that should provide a very good opp to buy calls as the day should improve for a mid day high b4 dropping off.

Jaywiz Index is mildly bullish @ .43
Oex pc ratio = 1.20 ~ ditto
spx 500 pc ratio = 1.96 ~ ditto

Vix still dropping @ 23.05

Today was a 70 year Gann convergence. for whatever that might mean to some one.

Best for now
Jay

Bar cycle count

Friday was a difficult day to read the bar ccycles as they were not well defined.

However, as best as i can read, heres the cycles for Monday

258 b cycle @ 10am, AND if they make a deep cycle low at that point, it might be the LOD, but i doubt it as the
Sunday night 7 pm Spooz are virtually flat.

As long term readers know, the cycle starts over After 258Bars.

30bars now cycle @ 12:30
60bars cycle @ 3pm

you will remember the open on the 11th was exact @ 60bars, and can be quite exciting.

Im still expecting a lower day Monday, and a Lower open on Tuesday to buy calls at premium prices.

The week from there looks higher with a more solid runup on the 24th where a couple of geomag cycles converge.

Jay

rally will continue, but

The rebound will continue, but monday should offer about 200 dow pts OFF

From there, however, the rest of the week should trend higher to an SPX high of 1292 - 1320
Why those #s
240 pts was the loss
240 X 38.2 = 92 which is 1200 + 92
You can do the math for 50% retrace.

I was under the impression the market would drop into the Eclipse on Aug 1st, but that doesnt seem to be what we will witness.

What about oil? After Monday, it should continue to drop down to hopefully the $100 level or less.
Can you imagine were hoping for $100, amazing, last year we were UNhappy with $65 oil,,, Ggeeesh.


Jayiwz index this week;
mon = .23
Tues = .20
Wed = .41 ahah - see the rally firm up
Thurs = .25
Fri = .22
The BEAR pressure is still in effect, but might be weakening

best for now
Jay

Success

How many people in this world can prdict a 500 pt rally 2 days prior ???

Someone tell Donald Trump

No, never mind, I really want to keep this a secret

Now what; You ask

Casey lowers the boom, thats what

I told another member of a web group to expect OIL to drop like a rock the last 2 days , and of course to me that was a no brainer considering i was looking for a run up on the dow.

Today's low of day cycled @ 11:15 at 120 bars
another minor dip @ 160b at 2;45 - was supposed to be @ 1:45

The NEXT 2 days should sell off severely into monday

Best for now
Jay

good money day

today turned out to be a good trading day $$$$

Tomorrow should duplicate today till 3pm

Today's cycles
30b @ 10:20 today was a buy in , even tho I missed the earlier low
60b cycled @ 12;45, very minor dip
3;15 hit @ 90 b also

Im trying to reconcile another cycle today
11:45 & 2;15 were more prominent lows

spx should make it to 1271-1276 tomorrow at its highs.

Jay

rally continues

Even tho Im fighting it in my mind, the data i rely on says we go up thru the 17th.

Full moon on 18th @ 3am influences the 17th as positive

I dont know If I will buy the open lower today or not, but according to my data, I should.

18th calls for BE FLEXIBLE, and to me that means a CHANGE in direction.

Jay

Downtrend will continue

Sell any morning rallies

the market will stay in a downtrend until at least the Augst 1st Eclipse

Jay

Rebound still possible

got a 250 pt rally but Haha, it came off a 200 pt decline = 450 pt day;

got in calls this Am and sold them later for a very nice money day.
Took ____ to buy calls this AM , but my scenario was good, and I bot into it.

Tomorrow still looks promising for an UP day; However, Im planning to SHORT it, as Thursday and Friday look LOWER.

Jay

Rebound due

Any rebound next 2 days is extremely short lived.

Downtrend is still in effect

Spx held 1225 - under 1219 would have dropped quickly to 1188, but not now

Charts edge has them dropping all week. WCA had today right and rebound tomorrow.

Today's lows
150 bars @ 10:30am
180bars @ 1:15pm
204bars @ 3;20pm

Tomorrow could open a little lower @ 10:45 = 226 bars, but its not a must;
spx futures closed flat
q's show a little lower open.

Jay

Sunday 7pm SPOOZ

SPX futures are UP 12.30 indicating an up open X 8 = 100 dow points

As I wrote the 11AM trine is very powerful

But It doesnt look like it will be very lasting

still expect lower for day

Jay

Monday LOWS

July 14th should bring in a very short term low
spx 1200 to 1188

the rally on the 15th and 16th will look Spectacular, and most likely be led by financial stocks
ndx should get at least a 100+ bounce
spx + 60 or more
dow + 500 or more

oversold bounce really over due but downward cycles still in charge

8 day low due Monday and turn on Tues.

early scientific readings are confirming lower for Monday
will be able to get better readings later Sunday

Jay

Whipped

Monday July 14th is the Capitulation LOW, for now short term.

Midnite low tide

Day after bradley on 13th = 14th

8 day LOW

Scientific data indicates a low

Spx should break 1219 and hit the 1200 mark, ---- could go as low as Murrey math 1188

258 bar cycle started new @ 10:30am on Thursday
60 bars hit right at the open
102 bars then cycled @ 1pm low
the close is 6 bars short of the next important mark which will be

144b @ 10am on monday's open should be lower till 10am.
Then there is a sun trine uranus at 11am which should mark a rebound high, but from there its straight down to 3:30 @ 204bars or 3:45 pm

Jay

early highs gone

Typical bear market action- love them at the open and hate than at the close.

July9th puts an official bear market stamp on the market

bar cycle today has a potential low @ 1:45 to 2:15

90 Bars cycle at 9:45 on 11th has potential to mark a very short term low.

Would then look for a high on Monday @ 11am; downtrend to continue into the 15th

Jay

Renewed CRASH Alert

Today's action renews the CRASH alert posted last week.

Need I say more ????

I dont think so.

Jaywiz index Monday = .14
Tues = .28
Wed = .26
Merc 180 pluto is like a snowball on a downhill slope which becomes an avalanche
mars 0 Saturn = WAR & a DOSE of Reality
Bradley date looks like a LOW or not even, but just a part of a declining trend into the August 1st eclipse.

Jay

Notice the wave from 10am to 11;30 forms in a 5 wave set with wave 4 overlapping wave 1
Under Elliott rules, this is considered a failure wave indicating a change of direction as you can see from the folow up decline.

Also note the OBV is in a steady declining phase from the open with only a minor bounce at 10;30.

Macd also topped at 10;30

Ult osc topped at 11am

Jay

back to short term

Expected a high tomorrow, but today is just fine;

Gonna get wild and crazy this week and next

heres the outcome

Down into 10th mid day
up thru monday july14th at 11am
down into 15th
up into 17th, down into 22nd

Drive everyone crazy except day traders who can catch the waves.
Jay

Crash mitigated for now

Even though there has been a lessening of a CRASH potential, we still MUST be vigilant of a declining market from NOW till Nov 4th and maybe into December

I use NOV 4th - NOT due to political reasons but for cycle events

I'm Still focused this week on July10th @ 2;15pm
Interesting the LOD on Monday was @ 2:15pm at 90 bars

Using the progression that I mentioned b4 we might look like this;
spx hit 1440 on May19 & May30
1440 - 40 pt segments to 1260 = 180 pts , and thats 4 X 40 =160 + 20
now that leaves another 20 pts open, but wait , we got that Monday !! SO, is that all there is?
well Maybe---
Using Murrey math; the break under 1250 would infer a test or close of 1219, and yes it would seem we got that, but July10th is still in the way of a rebound, so another test of 1220 must be viewed as quite possible..

Also keep in mind we are in a market that is the antithesis of the rising trend that held the bulls attention for 5 years from 2002 to 2007. SO that means EVERY rally is suspect of being a selling OPP.

The Bradley date of July6th may have brot in a short term low on the new moon of the 3rd, but there does not seem to be ANY support for a sustained rally.
In addition, the next Bradely date is July13, and it might turn in a VERY SHORT TERM high with a rebound late on the 10th ending on the 14th mid morning, and that would encompas the 13th date.

The bradley model has been right on track this year and it now shows a sustained decline from here to Dec15th: - so AGAIN we must be wary of the potential for much further declines this year.

best for now
Jay

STill coming

looks like I got my Monday and Tuesday mixed up.

WCA has the same depiction

Today so far we have the OBLIGATORY dow +100 pts

Erik Hadik says dow 11,437 is the threashold at this juncture.

A Sun 180 jupiter takes over and is related to stress and poor communications along with Merc 180 Pluto on the 10th, but the BIG GUN is Mars 0 Saturn on the 10th. That will call in the chips and bulls will throw in the towel.

Jay

One day at a time

thats the way the market works so why shouldnt WE.

Brokers tell you to look over the valleys and hope for the mountains. You dont NEED the money now, so why worry, be happy- no seriously, the market has spoken and it is in BEAR trend, so IF your long term, I would take steps to protect the value of your portfolio.

Monday is scheduled to open DOWN- how far and how long? that is the question
As for tomorrow, we can envision 2 scenarios
1. the LOD on Thursday, ( seems like ages ago) was at 10:15 @ 259 bars; If we add 70 bars its gets us to 329 and that would hit @ 9:45 am to 10am.
2. If the 259 bars cycle closed out @ 10:15, then the next cycle which became clear at 30bars @ 12:45 low would take us to 11;30am @ 60bars.

There is astro to suppport a 11;30 low as well as 90 bars @ 1:46pm.

Once the low is set we should see a rebound but still lower close.
another interesting point about astro- Venus trine Uranus on the 6th, is often found hovering just b4 a major decline- which was also a bradley date.

Im still gettingThrusday @ 2pm if my bar count is right which matches an important astro event at the time.

best for now
Jay

Potential crash next week

Yes !! -- this a REPEAT WARNING !!!!

Ive given you the data b4- scroll back

Now we also have a convergence of longer cycles on July22nd

54 tr days goes back to May6th a previous Bradley date
360 trade days goes back to FEb 20th, 2007, just prior to the 415 pt drop on the 27th
500 trade days goes back to July 23, 2006 , the mid year low
110 tr days Feb 13

Best for now
Jay

Potential crash next week

Any rally today as the futures are pointing higher is doomed to fail later today.

I've been out of touch the last few days as I was traveling and now entertaining family from out of town all this week.

However, I did post very important information about July10th as a potential short term bottom, and you can scroll back to get all the data.

After a few days of failed rally attempts, the market appears doomed to take a bigger plunge next week with July10th as the focus.

best for now
Jay