Even though there has been a lessening of a CRASH potential, we still MUST be vigilant of a declining market from NOW till Nov 4th and maybe into December
I use NOV 4th - NOT due to political reasons but for cycle events
I'm Still focused this week on July10th @ 2;15pm
Interesting the LOD on Monday was @ 2:15pm at 90 bars
Using the progression that I mentioned b4 we might look like this;
spx hit 1440 on May19 & May30
1440 - 40 pt segments to 1260 = 180 pts , and thats 4 X 40 =160 + 20
now that leaves another 20 pts open, but wait , we got that Monday !! SO, is that all there is?
well Maybe---
Using Murrey math; the break under 1250 would infer a test or close of 1219, and yes it would seem we got that, but July10th is still in the way of a rebound, so another test of 1220 must be viewed as quite possible..
Also keep in mind we are in a market that is the antithesis of the rising trend that held the bulls attention for 5 years from 2002 to 2007. SO that means EVERY rally is suspect of being a selling OPP.
The Bradley date of July6th may have brot in a short term low on the new moon of the 3rd, but there does not seem to be ANY support for a sustained rally.
In addition, the next Bradely date is July13, and it might turn in a VERY SHORT TERM high with a rebound late on the 10th ending on the 14th mid morning, and that would encompas the 13th date.
The bradley model has been right on track this year and it now shows a sustained decline from here to Dec15th: - so AGAIN we must be wary of the potential for much further declines this year.
best for now
Jay
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