cycles

We seem to be locked into an 8 day or 52 hour cycle;
Oct9
oct19
oct31
nov12
nov 26 was 9 days due to the 1/2 day on the 23rd.
Dec 6th
Dec 18
Dec 31
jan11- 2008
jan 23
Any one catch Charles Nenner interview on CNBC;
I have claimed many times, the markets are NOT controlled by the news, and yet there are so many newcomers in the last 5 years who swear by the newsmaking the market- WELL a rally or decline would have ocurred anyway with or without the news, and thus a .50 bp rate cut will give the players a reason to see a rally, its not what actually made teh rally happen, IT WOULD HAVE HAPPENNED ANYWAY.

When the market goes UP 300 points, everyone goes home happy nd doesnt question why.
when the mkt drops 300 pts, EVERYONE want to know WHY, WHY WHY.

OK, enuf preaching, lets move on.
Jupiter 0 Pluto is a very powerful force indicating a rare transformation.
Dec 17 has MERC 0 Sun and should top out the market thru xmas.
Year end rally should carry till Jan 2nd and maybe reach a secondary high on the 11th before treading water till months end.
according to Nenner, Feb and March could be 10% to 15% DOWN again.
He also mentioned multiple 10% swings next year.

I have found a PC ratio that does seem very sensitive to identify when a rally is going to occur.
It appears the LOWER the ratio, the higher the chance for a decline the next day, and vice versa.
I only have a few weeks data, so more study is required.

Monday and Tuesday have been called for unusual downside bias by one associate uisng his propietary methods and he has been 80% accurate with his calls.

I guess the mrkt wants to shake out the weak players before running it up the flagpole to the 18th.

best wishes
Jay

December dates

Dec 3rd should start down, and if not them the 4th for sure.

the 5th and most especially the 6th should be quite bearish


After an UP open on the 10th we can expect the balance of the day and most of the 11th to be lower.

From there a high on the 18th could stop for a couple days, and will probably get choppy and sideways till year end.

Still expecting a very strong surge from the 11th to 19th.

Best Wishes
Jay

5th wave

A 5th wave can be sudden or drag out for days, and week.

This one loooks like it will be a short one, and probalby wont pick up steam till DEc 4th.

Today was near perfect
spx hit 1489, just below the 1490 level of the low of wave 1.
11am was called for the high but the high petered out in the first 30 minutes, and the 11am was only a weak attempt.

Low hit at 90 bars at 3:00 PM.
Nothing has changed as far as Dec 11th, still going to be a monster rally starting from there.

Best Wishes

Wave 4 DONE

From July 16 on the SPX, I can count Aug 16 as the low of Wave "A"
Count Oct 11 as an iregular "B" wave higher than July 16th
That means wave "C" has got to end lower than wave B, or dow 12,500 and spx 1374

When ?
Since we got the expected 4th wave this week instead of next week, then wave 5 of the current "C" has got to start Tomorrow after about 11am.

The low is still expected to be Dec 6th, and or 10th.
Get ready to buy the 11th, and the FEd, if a 2 day meeting will cut rates by a MINIMUM of .50bp.
On Dec 18th of 1992, the fed unexpectedly cut rates by a FULL POINT, and the market blew away.
Will Mr B do that now? just a guess, but whatever it is will be well received.
Jay

show us the $$

Now that the wv 4 of 3 of "C" is out of the way we can now watch, and or short the V of 3 of "C

Next 2 days, again contrary to charts edge should take the spx under 1400.
Some targets have been proposed by others as 1352 to 1328.

Theres not much time left between now and DEc 10th for the final low of the correction from Oct 11th high, so the sell off must show its force starting now.

After the LOW this Friday, they should get a strong rebound next week to the 4th or 5th,.
That would be wv 4 of "C", then looking of course for 5 of "C"

IF your a bull, then hold onto your cash and get ready for one hell of a rally on DEc 11th which should carry thru to at least mid Jan 08. and thats just for starters.

Best Wishes
Jay

Flowing downhill

banking, mortgage& financial news keeps getting worse

Today's pc ratios seem like they tehnically could start out on the upside tommorw, but the influences are pointed down all week.

WE could see a down open, and higher close tomorrow- Tuesday Nov 27th, leading to an UP open on the 28th, but from there , IN OPPOSITION to charts edge, Im still looking for a good tradeable LOW on Friday near the close.

180 bars did count at 3;30 pm today, but was later broken, and thus we will look for the 204 bar count at 10:30/11am Tuesday for a possilbe short term trading low.

Best Wishes
Jay

Full Moons

Full moons do tend to SKEW that market into an upside mode.

Resistence today at 1442, and was hit a few mnutes ago 12:30 pm

Monday does have some potential to sell off at least until noon to 1pm

Could then rebound at the close and make another little high on Tuesday AM.

The WAVE looks like an a-b-c- X on 13th
start another series down = a on Nov 22, now looking for b thru Tues AM, then c 28th thru Nov 30.
THATS STILL not the end of the decline.
DEC 10th is the end.
Jay

trading lower

Regardless of any rally today which may or may not stand up for the day, we can still expect a rally on Monday.
MY STRATEGY

If the market fails to hold today, then I will be selling my puts at the close, and rebuying them late Monday or early Tuesday

IF not, then I am still holding them as I am still expecting another sell off or continuation of it in the "C" wave to a NOv30th LOW.

Best Wishes
Jay

Sell off about to accelerate

Friday should sell off and set a new low for this move.

Any puts you own should be closed out at 1pm.

Monday should open with a spurt, but should fizzle later

Tuesday should do just the opposite

WEd to friday stand a very good chance of making a CLIMACTIC sell off to finish the decline on Nov 30.

Anyone waiting in the wings with cash, just hold on a couple weeks till Dec 10th, then sell the farm and buy stocks, calls, etf's whatever you want. I can assure you that BANK stocks will SCREAM, as will just about everything else.

This yr the bears got the turkey and the bulls get Xmas.
Best Wishes
Jay


PS- Editing biz letters or any other written communicationscan be improved dramatically with the right editing.
Email me with any requests.

LAST 10 minutes

yesterday's close dropped off in the last 10 minutes- WHY

Today has a 204 bar count at 10am, and UNLIKE yesterday where the 126 bar count hit at 4pm on Monday, the day b4, this time it alternated and will hit at 10am.

From there, they should recover till at least 1pm.

A lower close is indicated today.

90 bars count at 11am on Friday, and 120-126 near the close at 1pm.

to get a good look at the real wave count, look at JPM, and or BAC.

Jay

BTW, anyone who needs a biz letter or other document edited, please email me.
Its just one of the other things I do for income.

17 yr High

I mentioned this b4, but look at the 17 yr cycle from oct11, 1990
5 yr Cycle from oct 2002.
After a 150 pt high, the dow dropped to -110 at 2:30 pm.
RIGHT ON 180 bars at 2:30pm, and sold all my puts.

Tomorrow has the opp to run up about 20 spx points, but friday STIll showing some severe selling could develop even tho its only a half day, and most institutional traders will be off.
I will be buying puts at 1;30pm and or the close.

Friday can take it all away and send the markets in a tail spin.

Most important date this month will be NOV 30th.

Most important date in Dec will be the 10/11th.

Best Wsihes
Jay

Nov 2007

Next week should complete minuette wave 3 of minute wave "C", and make a new low to about the 12,500 area. most likely on friday.

Still got a short term low on Tuesday, with a rebound on Wed.

Minuette wave 4 would rebound from possibly the 26th to DEC 5th with a dip on 28/29th as an intervening "b" .

Keep in mind however, the 23rd is a half day, and is wrot with negative influences & closes out at the 126 bar count

Best Wishes
Jay

Elliott wave counting

A decline can also take the form of 5 waves as this one appears to be doing.

Thus a 3rd wave can SPIKE DOWN and be devastating within that trend.
So far we have a wave 1 down off oct31 and a possilbe wave 2 either done or still in progress. Once completed, there is WAVE 3. Which can break down into 5 waves also.

Last week hit the 12th for a low as I described.
The 14th by some was supposed to be a lower low, but it obviously turned in a possible HIGH this week, unless Monday starts out on a strong note.

Heres my outlook for the balance of November
Monday Could start out positive, but even if it does, It should close down, and IF it starts down, it should be quuite severe, followed by an equal down on Tuesday.

WEd should POP UP and probably make it to the close.

Thursday, gobble gobble, and enjoy that turkey with all the trimmings.

Friday, Nov 23rd, looks like another severe selling day, but it closes at 1pm.
Coincidentally, there is a 126 bar count at 1:30, and thus 1pm falls within its influence.

The weekend of the 24th has some severe influences which should have its effect on trading on the 23rd.

A 10 day cycle is due on the 26th, but IMO, it will occur on the 23rd due to those influences as mentioned.

26 to 28th is indicated as UP
29 and 30th are expected to be DOWn days
Oct 31st.
8 TRADE day low = NOV 12th
4 day high = Nov 16th
next 4&8 day low = Nov 23
8 day high = Dec5
4 day = Dec 11
8 day = Dec 17
21 st
28 th.

As I've mentioned b4, DEc 11th should be a very important date ,a nd could be the low of 2007.
Bank stocks are getting killed.

Best Wishes

Jay

NOv 14th

Nov 14th was posted by a number of analysts as a very important date.

Many of them thought it would be a low, but it now appears it may have been an important high.

On well known analsyt has written about the importance of a NOV 22nd date, which IMO, looks like it could be an important low, if not also the 23rd.

Tommorow should open higher regardless of today, but will porbabley NOT hold up after mid day.

That means the 19th could be the straw that breaks the camels back.

Some Elliott technicians have viewed the action since oct 31st as wave 1 and 2.

For those who dont know what that means= WAVE 3 is the ultimate spike, and in the case of the present, that could be devastating to stock prices.

Best Wishes
Jay

8 day cycles

Oct 9th high - closing values
oct19 low
oct31 high
Nov 12 may hold next low and challenge of 12,850
Some of my associates prefer oct15th, and that could b possible, but more likely Tomrrow or the open of the 13th.
Then what??
Friday Nov 16 holds out he best bet for a strong ONE DAY rally
However, the NEXT 8 day cycle indicates a turning point high on NOV 23rd, leaving out the 22nd which is T day.

From an Elliott view, it would appear we are FINALLY making a real correction in which the lows will more than test Aug 16th at 12,500. Theyve already take out 1000 points in just 30 calendar days. BUT whats more remarkeable is HOW BULLISH sentiment is. After 5 yrs, theyve conditioned all of us to think bullish.

Go back to Oct/2002/march 2003, and dow around 7500
IF STILL in a bull market TREND thru 2010 which is still my guess for now until proven otherwise, we should see a market correction of at least 38.2% =about 2700 pts

When will that happen? IMO, Could take as long as next NOV before hitting such a low- others are claiming a PEI relationship to previous important dates ending on March 22 of 2008.

The MOST important NEAR TERM date IMO is DEC 11th.
In 1994, Jupiter and Pluto conjucntion ACTUALLY started the whole rally from about 4500 level to the first big target at 11,725 in yr 2000. THAT conjunction ocurrs again this yr on DEC 11th.
An important inflection point, and maybe a short term bottom with DEC 22nd as a retest.

Best Wishes
Jay

Its NOW or Never

There is an analyst using whats called the Hindenburg omen, and he claims there has been a cluster of hit within the last month, which is required as just one hit is just not enuf.

OEX pc ratio = 1.25 just moderate
CBOE pc ratio = .98 ditto
SPX 500 ratio = 1.47 Ditto
VIX ratio which was .67 yesterday today is .20- overwhelming calls over puts= contrary is bearish

WCA graph shows marekt down next 2 days

MY Gravity indicator is on a sell

Dollar getting as low as it can get, according to one analyst, almost at bottom.

Monday's low hit at 126 bars at 2.00 to 2:30

extending the count to Thursday close would be 180 bars OR Friday's open.

IF all goes according to plan, get ready to BUY the friday open low, and dont look back till at least the 23rd.

Best Wishes
Jay

Market expectations

The Market has come to expect rallies after every large hit;

Feb fooled around a little, and then recovered.

August dropped and recovered


Oct 11th dropped after and recovered

SO WHY NOT NOW ??
just got a rate cut to boot

Why the market wont rally so fast- Because they expect it to.
But thats not the real reason
Support levels are at 1496 spx which was touched
Once broken, then look to 1470 - 1460

Many of my associates have mentioned that level
some are thinkng 1455, but maybe or not.

Best Wisahes
Jay

More to go

My internal indicators are telling me theres moreof today still coming

I had mentioned a negative bias thru the 6th after the fed rate cut.

Today;s ARMS index was only 2.80, not a romping 5.00 or more.


My Propietary volume and Adv deline index is at 786, and 1129; leaving PLENTY of ROOM to get under 400, where those levels have NEVER failed to indicate a rally.

and the 5 day arms is only at 6.26, and no where near enuf to scream BUY.

The futures did close down substantialy

today's bar hits were right on target126 at the open = 10am
180 at 2pm
204 at the close

Tomorrow's bar hits
259 at 2pm
might be the low of the day

There seems to be an 8.6 day cycle in play which did occur at 3pm on WEd
the next 8.6 trade cycle = Nov 13, my Bday, hmmm.
Somtimes cycle shift, and if it extends to the 16th, it could become a 10 day or 68 hr cyle which ive tracked b4 from time to time.
Since the 16th is OPTIONS, and there are no negative influences to stop it, it might just do that.

Jay

Where are we

Monday the 29th is also a historic day, and it might have just hit a short term high.
62% rebound on the SPX
54% rebound on the Dow

Tuesday should start DOWN
Wed has an 8 trade day cycle high at the open, and the Fed rate cut at 2:15 on WEDNESDAy might offer a minor spurt.

BUT, I am looking at the trend from here to NOV6th as biased DOWN

FROM NOv 6th, the rally should take the dow to possible new highs by NOV 16th, which of course is option Expiration day

Todays bar hits were due at 10:30, and 1pm &3pm

They did HIT in the middle of each target;
A low was scored at 11am, and again at 3pm

Tomorrow - Tuesday should have bar hits at 11am again, and this one should be more meaningful than Monday's

The second one should hit at 1:30
4pm should also be signifigant.

Jay

Next Week Fed rate cut

Yes, the FOMC is Tuesday and at 2:15pm, they will most likely cut the rates by another .25pt
It is already factored in by 100%, so NO surprise is expected this time.

Energy patterns next week are in low gear on Monday and tuesday ,thus a rate cut might not inspire a rally.

Thursday had a 30 bar hit at 2pm exact- 120
friday hit 90 bars at noon exact
Monday has a 150 @ 10:30, --And 180 bar hit @ 1pm -- & 204 at 3pm
leaving Tuesday with 259 @ 1pm , whihc might be short term low just prior to the reat cut announce at 2:15pm
Best Wishes
Jay

trading

As any trader should do, puts that were bot on friday were sold on Friday's close

The market did NOT repsond to an oversold condition in the AM on monday and openned down 100 pts, and by 10 am is now only off 26 pts.

Catching the open low for closing out an option would have been some what frustrating unless you had it in for a price which even then may not have gotten struck.

Now we have to take an overall view this week.
Expecting a more serious low on WED and possibly even Thursday, I do intend to buy back puts today.
First time zone would be at 10:20am, but the unltimate time might also be later in the day.
Sure we try to get he extremes, but thats not an easy task, and only happens on occasion.

If the ultimate target for this week is under 13K, then it matters not to catch the ultimate price, but it matters more to be in. Of course that all depends on your view of the direction this week.

Jay

anniversaries

Oct11 was also the 17 yr anniv of hte 1990 low

Oct 19 is the 20 yr anniv of the 1987 crash.

Most index options expired on the 18th, and thus there was no techncical reason to support them.

I had been warning about a large hit for weeks now. and Thursday, my tendonitis kicked up.

So much for that, now whats next.

heres some stats from Friday
The close was right on a 159bar hit
one day ARMS index was 3.39
MY OWN INDEX of 5day ADV DCL & UP/Dn Vol both dropped under 300- anytime that has occured, we get a bounce. Ive been keeping that index for many years now.

5day arms = 805, a fairly strong buy
10 day arms = 130.1= also a strong buy

Monday should explode out of the chute, and continue UP all day.

Tuesday calls for a CHANGE and should decline into the 25th.

Best Wishes
Jay

oct 11 = exhaustion wave top

elliott wave shows oct 11th peaked in a 5 wave diagnonal ending triangle where wave 4 overlaps wave 1.

Thus we should see a retreat of good size proportions.

I know, its like crying wolf and he never shows up. Well this time he is coming to a neighborhodd near you, and me.


The best bet for a major retreat is Oct 22 to 25th, and ive mentioned that several times.

Monday performed as expected, and Tuesday settled down to MAJOR support at spx 1538, as discussed on many other site that I review.

Today is Wed, and I am anticiapting a gravitational rebound thru Thursday.

According to Another sources, Thursday's close or friday's open is the next turning oint, and it should be DOWN.

After a brief and strong rebound open on monday, the dow should fall precipitously thru the 25 and the full moon. Oct 11th was a new moon.

Best Wishes
Jay.

Bradley dates

Bradley dates are October 13 and 17th as mentioned b4

Oct 11th and the new moon have shown their importance.
Oct11 is the 5 yr anniv of the 2002 low
And the new moon indicated a NEW START, and a PIVOTAL DAY, and new direction
I had read it upside down. The knife has just begun to fall.

The bradley chart showed Oct13th as a HIGH, and thus I was reading oct11as a LOW leading to a runup to another new high. THAT WAS WRONG - it has been the reverse.

The PIVOT referred to the FAILED new high on the SPX , and the END of the RUN from August 16th.

Bar hits on the 11 th were at 11am, a minor dip, and MUCH more important the 3pm low at 259 bars.

Today, Oct12th has 30 bars @ 11:30,--- & 60 bars @ 2pm, BUT most important 3pm
3pm has 2 hits
3pm = 126 off the 11am low of yesterday
3pm = 329 off the 259 low of yesterday

Also there is a 90 bar hit at 10 am on Monday which should open the market with a small thud.
That would be a good OPP to buy calls. Expect another failed run to attempt new highs on the 17th, which is the other bradley date on Oct17th which SHOULD provide a rebound high and secondary failure, thus leading to further selling from the 18th thru the 25th.

I have mentioned the 22nd to 25th a few times.

Dec 22nd is the next most important bradley date after Oct17th, and it is predicted as a low, and I have no reason to suspect otherwise at this point. but more on that as we get closer to those dates

November also shows promise of some high volitility

Best Wishes
Jay

Technical evidence points to pull back NOW

October, well know for market declines, seems ready to provide yet such another market event.

Decision Point has very good charts and graphs showing the TECHNICAL data related to a pull back. And he makes a very good argument for such right now.

The Bradley turn dates coming up are
Oct13,
Oct 17

Elliott wave shows the most recent high to be what is called an IRREGULAR top which occurs as a "B" wave. Whats that mean for those of you who dont know. "C" waves follow and they are usually very disastrous, especially the way this one provided a new high. It measn the next low soule be at or lower than the "A" wave which ocurred on Aug16th at dow 12,500

The timing seems to be from NOW till October 25th. NOW thats really quick in terms of market timing. So, it would mean a low of at least 12,500 by oct25th. since it cant all happen in one week, as it takes 3 waves to complete, then this week would have to be part of that decline, and it probably started Friday at 3pm.

SO, if 12,500 gets hit this week, then we could expect 11,700 to be the lower target on the 25th, but all that remains to be seen.

Im still looking for a sharp decline this week ending on Thursday around 11am where there is a 204 bar hit. From there, they should rebound to the 19th and OPTION EXPIRATION- thats a concept I still have to get my head wrapped around.

BTW, Our SUN and solar system is on track to be on the SAME PLANE as the Galactic CENTER of the MILKY way galaxy on DEc 11th, 2012- exactly where the Mayan calendar ENDS. Whats that mean you ask? NO one can really answer that Quesion, but maybe it will be the end of our warming trend???? for one thing. According to Nostrdamus, I think its the end of the world, but thats not supposed to be a problem till 2029 when that Asteroid is due to fly by, and then return to actually hit us in 2036, i think.

Fortunately, we are advanced enuf to possibly remove that threat. AND some people still complain about the reason we are exploring space. We didnt get this far just to get obliterated by a space rock.

So catch that falling knife on the rebound Thursday as it bounces off support, wherever that may be.
Best wishes
Jay

Monday, Monday, cant trust that day

Monday's in literature and real life have been know for catastrophe's

Will this Monday be such a day ???

It seems Friday's last hour may have setup a wave 1 down @ 3pm and wave 2 @4pm

Ive counted out 2 bar cycles converging at 4pm
1. hits with 180 bars
2, hits with 329 bars
Both are consistently apparent at LOW POINTS

Monday's reading calls for a financial problem, and morning difficulties.

It is the 138 anniv of the 1869 panic- ?? if that means anything ???

October , according to some techncial analysts is begging to take out the August lows.

I still have the same dates as previously posted.
Oct 1 - LOW

Oct 5 a high, possibly the 8th, but more likely the 5th
Oct 10 now looks like the most likely day for a serious low that week, as the new moon is at midnite , which opens the 11th for what I would call a pivotal day.
Oct 12th reading calls for an UPBEAT and DYNAMIC day.

The next time period for serious consideration is the week of the 22nd to 25th.

Best Wishes
Jay

Potential short today

Today's full moon AfTER EFFECT should represent a turn lower and provide a profitable short opp.

positive influence at 1:30 today might be good time to take a position ??

other wise, the close today or open tomorrow accompanies a 126 bar hit and should coincide with a drop in the market. Most likely the open as a 56 hour cycle high hits late today.

There is a strange GAP in the solar energy chart tomorrow, and low energy levels shown for
the 28th. BUT there is positive energy later in the day which could stabalize the market

Monday is expected to continue the decline most of the day.

From there, the market should rebound into the 8th.

Jay

Can the bears recover?

Not according to CNBC-- bears are dead in the water.
If only the signals were that clear at the bottom.

It takes at least 5 days for a market to top out, which may or may not have already happened.

At the LOWS such as Aug 15,16, it only takes a few hours to bottom out, especially in a strong bull market.

In 1982, it took many years thru all of the 70's to reach a bottom. but were in a totally different kind of environment.

Many of the participants on other web sites seem to be comisserting theri losse also.

Unwarranted rate cuts to bail out the foolish- hey, then why not give us back our foolish losses??

October has the possibility of making a 5 wave decline, but will it be HUGE or meager??

Huge would be to the liking for some people I converse with, but it doesnt lookthat way.
Unless there is a coup in IRan while @#$&*^% is here, or something else occurs, then I cant see anything but a possible easy 5 wave correction to the 25th.

Heres the break down
October 1st, a low
Oct 8th, a high
Oct12, a low
Oct 19th, a high
Oct 25th a low
FROM There, its buy buy buy all the way to late November, and maybe further.

Remember, I did state my expectations for Dow 18,000 by 2010.
Dow 18k would put gold at or near $1000

Can October be severe? Sure
Some Elliott wave people are viewing the Aug 16 to Spt 21 run as a "B" wave, thus openning the door to a "C" wave. If its a running correction in a strong bull market, then the ending will not be any lower than 12,800.

If a normal Nasty "C" wave, it should coincide with some dramatic event, and since Money problems seem to be under control, HMMM, then it would come from some world event. Whats that you ask? The DOLLAH is getting murdered!! NO one seems to care ---- just YET> ???
How low can the dollar go until it effects stock pricies?? Damned if I know

More later
Jay

Pay the PIPER

I dont know where that expression came from, but its beginning to look like this week will match that saying.

Most important appears to be Wed at NOOn where numerous influences meet
Reading for the day calls for upsets, pay the piper, and money problems.

It wont end there, but Wed afternoon could offer a reprieve.

Continued pressure is indicated for Thursday as well

And it doesnt end there, as the markets should continue to decline thru october 1st.

Best Wishes
Jay

Market holding

Cant seem to get capitulation

Is it still coming? yes, but when?

Dow got to 13,425, and spx to 1483 , a FLAT on the rebound if thats the end of the rebound wave
matching the highs on spt 4th, SO FAR - - -

Buying on this rebound has been on lighter volume , reflecting only a rebound.
Selling has been limited, but buying has been muted

Take a look, if you have it at the Charts Edge graph of Spt 1 to oct 19th.
It did show a high on spt 4th, and a low on the 7th to 10th.
then a rebound to now the 13/14th.
More important, it reflects a potential top on FED day- Spt18th, then a 2 day thud on 19th & 20th.

There is a huge open gap on the solar chart showing a possible selling spree on the 19th, and the 20th. HOw low is LOW?? Could be that we will see 100 spx points in 2 days, but that only speculation on my part.

Best Wishes
Jay

READY or NOT

The best chance for the market decline to continue occurs tomorrow and Friday into Monday

PC ratios are bearish

Look at a Chart of the dow on big charts and use the data for:
Ultimate oscilator -- dropping at close
OBV - dropping from mid day
MACD - blue line crossed over red, and the gap is getting larger.

Solar effects seem to be showing declines the next 2 days, and probably monday, but thats not clear yet.

How long are they going to ignore the dollar under 80

Yes, the FED will most likely lower the fed funds rate by .25, and the 18th with or without them calls for a winning day, and that means UP

BUT the rest of next week is hampered with some heavy duty negative influences, and could drag the dow down thru the 20, and or 21st, the 6 yr anniversary of the 9-11-2001 lows.

21st has some other short term cycles converging on that date also.

Some other very good technical analysts have suggested spx lows at 1330., while others are indicating 1220, and 1170. Take it for what it is, and dont bet on any of them.

whatever happens between now and october 9th will take the spx and dow to whatever level is major support BUT realize that most negative influences will be gone after Oct9th, and the market should start another strong moveup.

Best Wshes
Jay

9-11-2007

It still looks like 9-11-2007 will be a hard day on Wall st.

And it should continue to the 17th.

Even a rate cut by the Fed wont stop the cycle in play which probably wont stop until Spt 20th

Of course there will be some WILD swings, and that kind of volitility can be vary scary.

Im still planning to add short positions on Monday, and the open should run up at least 100 points in the first 15 minutes.

Best Wishes
Jay

I dont like using IF, but

If Friday provides a low, or I should say closes at a low,

then Monday should provide a moderate bounce

BUT Im still waiting for the 11th and 12th to offer some type of panic selling

Just how much and how bad?? Dont have any way to offer that info

Some people have posted some heavy duty numbers, but I cant be one of them.

So far, Its still sell the rumor, buy the news
it seemed they were buying the rumor until today??

RATE CUT?? a rumor, come Spt 18th it could be news, BUY IT, I will .
Best wishes
Jay

Spt 2007

Sptmber promises to be an eye openner.

The market over the past 5 years has spawned a larger number of new players who ahve not even see as much as a 3 % correction

SO why should this month be any different? I really cant answer that until it is over, but I can tell you that I personally am planning to be a short as possible on Spt 7th, and expect to close those positions on Spt 17th.

Best Wishes
Jay

minor sell signals

just as the close of Tuesday provided a number of buy signals
the close of today provides just the opposite
Here they are:

light volume
Arms index daily = .27 - havent seen that in a very long time
Up vol = 96% it was 93% down on Tuesday
Cboe PC ratio = .96 , and down from 1.30 day b4
oex PC ratio = .57 can be seen as a screaming sell
spx 500 PC ratio = 1.24 - has been holding ranges near 2.00 and up, so this one is bearish
These ratios are all indicating a lot of CALL BUYING.
the day's reading calls for loss of enthusiasm and stalled out.
Solar effect is down for tomorrow

However, Friday could be just the opposite again, but the bar count hits 180 at 11am on Friday, and there is numerous inflation data coming out at 8:30am. which might go against offering a rate cut. On the otehr hand Friday has a few other hidden asssets which might lend a hand in providing an upday. You can see why I keep vacilating about Friday.

Charts Edge 3 month charts so far seems quite accurate, and does show Friday as an upday.
I cant imagine why the weekly report contradicts the monthly charts, but the weekly shows Friday as a down day.

Jay

FELL OUT OF BED

Am I the only one who reads my blog.
The market fell out of bed on 8-28-07. DUH- how much more do you want?

According to the solar effects, theres still more selling to come this week.

I did sell my puts on the close today, that were bot last thursday for a 25% gain, even though I bot them a bit early in the game, 350 pts lost in 2 days made up more than what was needed.

I am planning to buy them back on any rally up till about 11am Tomorrow. And even if I am wrong, and the market closes higher for the day, it will be made up later in Spt. 10th to 12th.
IMO, It wouldnt be far fetched to see the dow at 12,800 by Friday.

Even reading the FED minutes from Aug 7th did nothing to stop the selling today.
SO, does the FED move the markets or does the market move the FED.??

Bernanke and company are hiding themselves in a fortress this Friday- whom are they hiding from? the big bad wolf?? is the wolf at the door?

Many are expecting his speech to move the market- BUT in which direction?

Jay

Ominous monetary events

Sptember has been the weakest month of the year in historic terms and more lows have ocurred in October than any other month of the year.

Tomorrow could appear to fall out of bed.

many newbies have traded the market for the last 5 years without as much as a 3 % correction, and even the Aug 15th hit recovered quite well. those newbies have reported never having lost money , and thats good, cause they are going to need lost of spare cash and much fortitude to withstand the next 45 days.

There seems to be some type of international monetary crisis brewing which unlike a possbile terrorist event which could be prevented or thwarted, a money event cannot be stopped, and it would appear it began in August, but hasnt really hit home yet.
Dollar crash?? maybe.
My timing calls for Spt 10 to 12th, with more fallout the week after

Jay

Are we there yet?

Where is THERE ?
A rebound HIGH ? very possible, and it got a little higher than the fibo relationships
13,400 is 62% of the 1500 point decline intraday
Friday's rally up on AIR.

Whats in store for sptmber??- See charts edge 4 week chart for gold-
matches closely my assesment.
Starting next week, I would agree with charts edge for Monday and especially Tuesday
however, the balance of the week Wed to Friday has an upward bias.

A low on the 4th mid day is expected to give way to an upward bias most of the week
till about mid day on Friday.

10th to 12th can be quite stressful, and it is 6yr anniv of 9-11, which by itself mean nothing unless someone gets off a sneak attack in the US. ???
another stress full day is 17th,
FED day should be quite positive, but this time the party wont last all week.
More later
Jay

GOT It

If you didnt buy in att the open, then it was wait all day to get in at 3:50pm

It was OBVIOUS from the OBV, MACD and Ult oscilator that a rally was brewing from the 1pm low.

in the 3 oclock hour they ran up to +10. and then backed of to -26, only to runup again to +6.66, now thats a nice number

anyway, I was able to grab some puts at a price that Was In the MIDDLE of the range as I had the buy in during the last itsy bitsy runup

The SETUP is there for a decent selling day tomorrow
the MACD blue line cut through the red line
Obv dropped
Ult osc dropped,
and price just barely made it to even.
SPX is indicating a dow lower by $11.36 on a scale of 8/1

Best Wishes
Jay

best made plan often go astray

Should have been shorting the open.

Noon gave us teh low of the day so far

I will be looking for a rebound in between the bar count to get short

expecting a fairly good sell off tomorrow.

Best bet, IF SHORT , will be to sell my short position on Friday by the close and go home flat.

Enjoy the wkend knowing I made some $$

Best Wishes

Jay

long winded

please accept my appologies if I have gotten too lengthy with my analysis.

Some people just want to know when to trade& what.

I have attempted to let you know when its time to make a trade, but I might have been remiss on that score of late.

So here it is short and sweet.
NOw is the time to get short AGAIN

I am planning to buy some puts at about NOON today, and they should be good till Aug 28th, but more on that later.

So far the dow has openned UP 55 pts in the first 10 minutes of trading
13,250 was mentioned as a dow target and now they are above that.
13,310 is the next critical level which is fibo 38.2 % of 460 pts abovve the lowest close on Aug 16th,
that would take the dow UP 74 points, and should provide strong resistence.

best Wishes
Jay

Corrective Wave

A major correction seems to be in progress from the July19th high of DOW14,000
but you knew that already, right?


Its now 9;45 and my 90 bar hit seems to be happenning a little late and it might continue to the 126 bar time zone at 12:30
Suppositions:
If there were 5 waves from July 19 to Aug 17th, that would be considered wave "A", and the fact that it took 5 waves means that was only the start of the correction, not the end of it.

Wv "B" already in progess could take the dow to 13,100 or 13,250 by Thursday at about noon.

From there , wave 1 of another 5 wv series would start and possibly close on 12,500 or near it by the 28th.
Corrections take the form of an Elliott 5-3-5 or " A" Down "B" up, then the horrendous "C" to the lows and it usually takes the form of 5 waves.

As previously mentioned, I am expecting a high on the 23rd, probably about noon, and from there a strong dip to the 28th. this might be considered wave 1 of 5 of "C"

Dow levels remain as previously written, but could be even worse.
one other scenario
1500 = 1/3 of the drop in wv "A"
WV "B' = 600 to 750 = 13,100 to 13,250
Wv "C" = 13,250 - 2400 = 10,850
Suppose wave "C" = 2/3 then it could take out as much as 3000 pts off the 13,250 = 10,250

IF 10K is to remain a FLOOR, then that math formula could work
remains to be seen
Best wishes
Jay

This Week

Ive complained about charts edge, but I think he may be close to this weeks action.

I was anticipating a 90 bar hit at the close Friday, but it didnt happen, thus we would then look to Monday's open, but that doesnt look like it will have any effect, but its only Sunday at 7pm as i write this.

ive also taken a look into Spt and October and heres what it looks like.
I dont do this based on maybe's an if's. there are a number of market analyses applied to my forecast.

the RANGE next week could open up to a 500 point swing an any given 2 days.
upper range fibo = 13,250
lower range 12,750
that action should carry us to the end of the month- Aug 27th is a Bradley TURN date, and its looking like a high within an intermedaite correction phase.

the intraday low spike to 12,500, an exact 10% move, and the first one in almost 5 years.
according to Erik Hadik, that move portends a 20% correction into Mid october.

Once Spt opens, we should see a dramatic continuation of the downtrend to the 19th, and or 20th in options week, same as in August. 2/3 rds of the 20% Decline = dow at 12,000
After a brief rally to the full moon on the 26th,
The Actual low should occur on oct 9th to 11th.
And 20 % would take the dow to 11,200

Hope this clears up a few things and gives us some perspective
best wishes to all
Jay

SHORT

from late friday

The question now becomes, DID the FED doo enuf?
Now my answer is " IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE !!"

The markets are forcing the players to react, but UNTIL the cycle is complete, dont expect any immediate reaction.
what about Friday ? You ask, the market responded to the Fed, right? NO it was the the Fed responding to the market. Friday would have happened no matter what. The CYCLE calls for a continuation of the correction till october or even November. but more on that later.

For NOw we have to deal with making money this week. last week's low hit -343 on the 16th at 180 bars, so you can see how important that knowledge.

most of you im sure go to charts edge, and lately they have been terrible- it becomes very misleading when they show you a chart and only one day is correct.
However, there long term 3 month chart seem to be ok.

Charts edge 3 month chart shows a low around the 15th, and up toward the end of August.
NOW, heres the rub.
WIll the market move UP like they show from the 15th to the end of the month, OR
Or will the correction continue and make lower nubers next 2 weeks??
Elliott wave has the appearance of a 3rd or 3rd right now, and thus any upside within that wave is extremely limited, but where is the end? 3rds are the longest and strongest, and they can extend in time rather than spike lower in a crash like move.

My anaylsis for next week looks like this:
DOWN on Monday and Tuesday. HOW LOW is LOW ??
UP on Wed to Friday AM
Friday Down to Tuesday the 28th.
then up till the 31st.

Best wishes this week
Jay

WILD gyrations

I missed that change today as I was OUT of the office, and didnt get back till too late

What will tomrrow bring?
maybe the rally that fizzled today

Twice up to 90, and that failed to hold

Tomorrow's solar energy seems to be calling for an up.

Will OE bring in a short squeeze?
Supposed to be a lucky 2 days, but for whom. the bulls or the bears?

Im a little out of sync right now- maybe better in the AM
Market came off its lows at the close, and the spx futures seemed to move up also, but still -525
Some of my associates show the BERG indicator UP tomorrow, and seasonal spx was supposed to hit a low on the 8th
Bradley shows a rebond about now on both the geo, and helio charts.
Ive still got a major hit set up from the 23rd to 30th.
Best wishes

Premature buy

I may have been a little early calling Aug14th a buy, but the day should offer some wild gyrations leading to a strong upday tomorrow, and should close UP for the day today.

Thanks for the comments about my writing style.

If Im making trades, I cannot jump over here just to let you know what Im doing. Sorry

Sorry if I dont offer pretty pics and long winded explanations like most letter writers, but as traders, we need to know what we can expect the next day or two.
best Wishes
Jay

BINGO

DIRECT HIT !!!

How about those COMPLAINTS ??
NO. guess you were'nt paying attention

-92% down volume
78 hour cycle
60 bars
Merc opposite Nptne
OBV held from about 2:30pm.

Next 78 hour cycle hits at 4pm on Aug 30-- LOG that one into the data bank

Today was a very profitable day + $5893.26

Venus strikes a trine with my friend defrocked Pluto at 9:49 am
90 bars at noon - might back them off some
126 bars at 2:30- Ditto
could get a couple good trades out of tomorrow.
Looking for STRONG CLOSE

1000 points down since July 19th - the take away occurs much faster than the buildup.
rebounds in fibo
38%= 380 pts
50%= 500
62%= 620

Friday Aug 17th next stop- everyone off the train.
OH, thats right, you have to be on the train in order to get off.
Best Wishes
Jay

Frustrating Day

They let me make $1900 today but it happenned in the last 3 minutes.

Not sure why, but I bot puts when the dow was up 75, and sold them when the dow was down 5 at
the close. All I could get out of them was 10cts. BAHH- Humbug.
I'll get you my pretties HAHAHA

Tomorrow is the day
It would appear to be well set up;

CBOE pc ratio is 1.00- NOT to much oversold, yet
SPX 500 pc ratio = 1.26 not bad either
best for last: OEX pc ratio = .84, NOW thats the one I like.
OBV dropped from about 2:30pm into the close
SPX Futures -3.81 at close
All those indicators are pointing SOUTH

Todays bar count was neet
LOW at 11am = 186 bars
Low at 1pm = 204 bars
Low at 3 pm = 30 bars


Tomorrow
259 bars at 11am
30 more at 1pm
60 at 4pm = 320 total, and darn close to 329 which is the total of 204 and 126 = 329
Merc opposite neptune at 4>09 pm
49 trade days from June 7th = 10 wk cycle

BUY the CLOSE !!! Aug 14th;

best wishes
Jay

Is the Sky fallling

Carl shows us PROOF, the sky is NOT falling because of the news media articles.
WELL those articles PROVE NOTHING

One of my friends laughed when i told him we could suffer another great depression.
BANKING does NOT have to be the key, NOW its Mortgages.

they also laughed at me when the dow was 1300, and I told everyone it was going to 4000

OK, dummies, KEEP on LAUGHING
I will NOW be the one taking MY MARKET winnings to the BANK.

There does seem to be a dramatic gap shown by the solar effect for Monday

EW simple view
A wave low on Aug 3
B was high on the 8th
C wave in progress
should end Tuesday at 3;30pm

BW
Jay

Counting Bars

Counting bars does get a little difficult from time to time, but its MUCH easier than cycles which can shrink or stretch at will.
Bar counting is much more precise as it is a 3.3 day or 4.4 day function
Plus all the 60-90-180 Time points in between.

Todays 90 bar hit was at 10;30, and just as indicated the market openned lower providing an opp to buy calls. There was 2 opps to sell them at l 1:30 or 3;45

I still havent confrimed the solar effects for Monday and Tuesday, but other infleunces are pointing toward a very dramatic down day. Some of my other contacts have also written about a possible heavy decline.

Have a great week end and best wishes to all
Jay

Bridges & Brooklyn falling

Those types of things do seem to occur during market stressful periods.

Tomorrow shows as an UP day

Today had a 90 bar hit at 4pm or it might just still occur at 9:35am, in which case would make a very good one day trade with calls or ETF's. there is also a 126 bar hit at 11;35 - 45 time zone, and would represent a secondary low and buy point.
Could get 2 good trades out of tomorrow.

I bot a few calls at the close and if lower at the open, will add a few more.

I'm saving my powder for tomorrow's close to get short. Hopefully the road map will confirm my other readings for Monday and Tuesday.

Best Wishes to ALL
Jay

Multiple choice map

My road map this week has shown multiple choices, thus the confusion

I hope and think I have eliminated the ones with the worst directions

If that is so, then the one that has proven best did show a rally yesterday.

Today does show a down daywith a gap open; DUH, thats obvious given the futures.
Tomorrow also shows a rebound

The road map doesnt have any data for Monday and Tuesday, YET, so its not confirming my previous outlook for a mjor hit, but when IT does, I will post it.

best wishes
Yes, even for the disatisfied customer
Jay

Thursday & friday

Thursday still looks like a high at 11:37am

I should have stayed with the original forecast for WEd was UP

The DOW lost 800 pts
62% rebound = 13,696
Might hit that tomorrow at 11:37 AM

todays low point for the day hit exactly at 204 bars at 3pm

Tomorrow has 60 bars at 1:45pm

Friday hits 90 at 9:45
Hits 126 at 12:45

Solar effect was confusing and inconsistent for WEd.

Tomorrow SEEMS more consistent, but friday has a some mixed read, but it should end lower
It didnt look that way at first but seem to be right now.

Once the high is in, they should start to reatreat in a big way, maybe even on fridya, especially at the close

Best Wishes
And that goes for the dis-satisfied customer also
Jay

Day to Day ???

Wednesday NOW looks LIKE it should be a down day all day.

Thoorsday looks like Up till 11:37, then down

Friday should de a down day

The BIG event looks like Monday Aug 13, and Tuesday August 14th.

Best Wishes
Jay

Getting ready

There is an Aug 15th CYCLE LOW due which should effect the market on the
13th and 14th in a big way- DOWN of course.

Rebounds always follow
but it might be somewhat short lived thru the 17th

the 23rd to 28th might also have some negative energy taking the dow lower then.

Jay

Mixed week

as indicated, today, Tuesday is mostly lower
there was a 60 bar hit at the open
90 bars hits at noon
126 bars hits at 3pm

WEd should be mixed with an upward bias

Thursday could start up, but should reverse and head lower by day's end

Friday should be the reverse of Thurs
Start down or flat and close up

Best wishes
Jay

ONE DAY WONDER

Tuesday should reverse direction and be off all day

Wed = flat with UP bias

Thursday should TOP off and head lower after 11:37am

Friday = flat

Best wishes
including the dis- satisfied client
Jay

SWAMI Says

Up thru at least mid Tuesday

best wishes
Jay

Important UPDATE

New data has come to my attention

A market LOW should occur on Tuesday at 3 PM
there is a 204 bar hit at that time

Mars Squaring Saturn at 8pm should have a dampenning effect on human nature all day thus exacerbating the fall off.

an 8% drop from 14K = 12,888

A key tip off that a TOP was at hand can be seen in numerology.
1 PLUS 4= #5---- the NUMBER 5 MEANS CHANGE

A july 31 LOW should be a great BUY Point

31st -the day outlook calls for FLEXIBILITY- Ive mentioned that b4 and its being posted again.

Best Wishes
Jay

NEXT WEEK

theres ONE heckler in the crowd- so be it.

Check out CHARTS EDGE - way off the mark- at least im projecting down days

Several sources indicate continuation of the DOWN TREND till WED.

SOme other predictions for AUG 15th LOW, MAY NOT BE CORRECT.
in fact it may turn in a high, but more on that later

Best Wishes
Jay

BAR count

Yesterday's low was on the 180 bar hit,. but today has a 204 bar hit at 11am and could keep the dow under water till then, or IF a rebound at the go, then at least a dip at 11am

Today's energy shows the market straight up from the go, but it may not happen that way.

Monday and Tuesday should continue the take away.

Best wishes
Jay

Short term LOW

All the DATA Points to an UP day tomorrow - oversold rally only

CBOE ratio = 1.53
gravitational low was due today
Lunar low was due today

SPX 500 PC ratio = 3.88 = extremely bullish
Vix 20.74

Monday and Tuesday are expected to be take away days back to back, but if there are any changes, i will post it.
180 bars hit at 2:30 today
Tomorrow has a 204 bars at 11am, but the effect might be muted, and a low off the BURST start

Best wishes
Jay

STILL Upward bound

Today was MIXED but ended up;
But you didnt need me to tell you that

BUT it ended UP, and thats what my projection stated

Tomorrow should START down but end UP.

Friday should be UP

Next week promisses another take away
Best wishes
Jay

Time to Rally

Not much more to write than that

best wishes
Jay

And then there was

Tomorrow looks like a TAKE AWAY day

Mars and Neptune square off at 7pm, and the effect is apt ro last all day;

Netpune is illusionary, and mars is HARSH reality and warlike
WHom do you think will win tomrrow.

Confusion is the watchword.

Also got 204 bars htitting at 1:30

30 bars hits at the close and 90 at 2:30 on WED.
Best Wishes
Jay

IM baaack, Maybe

Im back to work also after 3 years part time, so I might not be able to post as frequently
I had been recovering from 2 spine surgeries

Whats That ? thats a good thing you say, HAHAHA , you may be right about that.

The NEXt 2 days should be explosive on the UPSIDE

One of the best tools I have has both number values under 400 and that usually indicates its time to jump. Those #s are based on 5 day ave ADV/DECL and VOL ratios.

Should hold up for a least till WED

Charts edge last week was %#%@%^*

Best Wishes
Jay

Was out of touch

I was NOT in touch with stocks last week and the information I provided could not be updated as needed.

If I had been online, I would have spotted the rally continuation as the data clearly shows it before it happened, but I was NOT able to report it to you.

Yeh, I know, making excuses again- well, believe what you want

Next week IS indicated to be biased lower thru the 19th so far, but THIS week I will keep up with any adjustments.
Best Wishes
Jay

HAVE YOU NOTICED

The LAST 2 weeks projections have been very accurate

RECAP
June25th turned in a HIGH at noon which was originally thougth to be a LOW, but was recognized as a HIGH which led to a 150pt OPENNING dive on WEd the 27th. The timing of which was indicated well in advance. as was the LOW of friday afternoon at 3:35pm

The following week was indicated IN ADVANCE to rally on July 2nd & 3rd - AND we got it.
July 5th was indicated to be weak. and the 6th to attempt new highs- EXACTLY as projected.

OK, lets keep up the good work, you say. No, YOU demand it ??

Next week is indicated as follows:
9th should be biased UP
10th should be FLAT
11th is indicated UP, but should not last all day.
12th & 13th are indicated DOWN days.
New moon on 14th
Friday the 13th has NOTHING To do with STOCKS

Happy 4th of July

Today's close as at 126 bars and as witnessed, the dow did drop off into 1pm.

Thursday shold follow a similar path and be quite a mixed day, but biased up till 4pm where 204 bars hits home.

Thursday also has some OTHER events working against it- so NO new highs are expected.

However, Friday the 6th should be the stronger of the 2 days, and the dow could make attempts at new highs.

I will be away the following week, and may not have access to a computer.
Best Wishes
Jay