RALLY COMETH- but NOT this week

Today should attemtp to rally and should reach HOD at 1pm.

However, we still have a very important LOW dead ahead

TOMORROW should close on DOW 8800- FRIDAY OCT 10th

Monday is RALLY DAY and we could get a DOW 1000 pt rebound on the 13th to 17th.

Get ready for it
Some times it takes the TECH DATA 3 to 4 days In OVERSOLD readings b4 the MKT actually responds to it

Giant short squeezes are born in oversold mkts.

BEST WISHES to all for a happy & healthy Yom Kippur

Remember

Jay

Where is the Market Going & Why

I'll try to make this brief and easy to understand

I could just tell you the outcome of my research, but its also good for you to know what Im looking at.

Dow Jones price levels
gain from 2002 to Oct 9th, 2007 = 7200 pts to Dow 14400 - an EXACT DOUBLE

7200 x 38% = dow @ 11,650
7200 X 50% = dow @ 10,800
78.6% = Dow @ 8800
100% = dow @ 7200
Could even go lower, but lets work with this for now

Day count
Oct 10, 2007 to May 19, 2008 = 145 tr days + 145 more = Dec 12th, 2008
Oct 10, 2007 was a NEW MOON
Dec 12th will be a FULL MOON
From oct 11th = 296 tr days / 8 = 37 a whole number
that means there were 37 segments of 8 tr days- I have mentioned this cycle b4.
Low to Low cycle of 13 tr days = 299 segments exact to oct 8th

So where are we and whats next
Oct 14th is a full moon, but the 13 day cycle is on the 16th@ 1pm, and should trade lower

Nov 4th is the NEXT 13 tr days cycle and has a harmonic cluster of HARD ASPECTS converging with the LOW TO LOW cycle - thus we should see a LOW at that point, but not THE LOW

next is Nov 21, but that date falls into a moderate upswing in exact opposition to the chart currently shown by Charts Edge.

Then comes DEC 11th and 12th
11th is the 13 day cycle and 12th is the full moon exactly like Oct 13 & 14
Not only is it a full moon, it also has an even more serious hard aspect harmonic cluster than Nov 4th.


SUMMARY
From here on Oct 8th we are still going to go LOWER
Nov 4th should be a serious LOW TURNING point, BUT again NOT THE LOW
The rest of Nov should be a very strong rebound

Nov 28th -30th should offer a HIGH with some very powerful energy from trines and sextiles of Jupiter, Venus & Uranus

That only leaves DEC 12th for THE LOW - thats the MOST important date for all of 2008.

From there we can enjoy a very strong rebound thru at least the Feb 2009 eclipses.

But the damage will have been severe, and only smart money will enjoy the rallyas most investors will be SHELL SHOCKEd, and or FROZEN in the headlights unable to make intelligent decisions.

Best for now
Jay

Not impressed by ratee cut

9am on Wed oct 8
Futures reversed LOWER by 9am and are as low as they were earlier

Activity index was 2 @ 5am, but dropped to 1 at 7am, and has been FLAT LINE since
Power index today 400 to 450 should still set the 11am low as per Art Cashin- WHO ?? commentator looking for
wash out today- might get a little one

Power index for tomorrow Oct9th = 400 to 350 indicates a lower day
Oct 10th = 350 to 300 LOWER still & astro readings are NOT healthy

Pressure for today hits HIGHS @ 3031 and turn down tomorrow as low as 2977- thats a HUGE drop

Flux smooth and holding above median level @ 1035

VHF no activity at all = 0 usually means an upday
Yesterday for example
started at 0 and we got he open rally
rose to 15 and we dropped to -350
the dropped to 5 and we came back to - 180
then rose to 10, and you know the rest

Jayiwz index = 92, indicates a rally

SUMMARY
So we have the 11am low cycle due, and a possible bounce from there to the end of the day

Jay


Additional reading
MY tech data is GROSSLY over SOLD
TOmorow is a 55 , 110 & 144 tr day fibo cycle hit

NDX retracements
1485 = 50%
1346 = 62%
1104 = 78%

Under 62% which means they are heading for 78%
Elliott wave says this is a 3 of 3 of 3 which is UN RELENTING
The see oct 16 to 28th as low

My 13 day cycle hits on the 16th at 1pm
Guess what,, the next 13 day cycle low hits on, YEP you guessed it Nov 4th
then ALSO as mentioned b4, there is another 13 day cycle due to hit on DEc 11th where there is a serious harmonic convergence of hard astro with a full moon

NO let up in sight for this mkt and dow jones 7200 is NOT out of the question
Jay

RATE CUT

it 7:30am on Wed and guess what

a RATE CUT

Only Fed funds rate, but thats where the $$$ is

Global mkts exploding- not waiting for 11;30am

Jay

ONE DAY TOO EARLY

All of my data is screaming BUY
I wont get into it- too much detail.
Jaywiz index .92

Readings were off by one day also- they flipped days on me.
in other words, Tues & wed are reversed, so tomrrow calls for fortunate trends even tho it was printed for Tuesday

Only one thing stands in the way of a very strong rebound- a rate cut of at least 50 bp, &
the 50% cycle of the 13 day day/ 84.5 hr cycyle NOW due at 66 hours tomorrow @ 11;30
the 259 bar cycle is also due to hit at 11am, and together they should mark a strong turn

Thursday is Yom Kippur and just like Rosh Hashanah, it should be a solid rally day.
not for that reason, however. BUt there is a VEUNS TRINE URANUS at midnite on the 9th which OFTEN precedes major crashes, which will become more likely once this rally is done.

bradley date = 14th
8 day Low
Full moon @ 4pm, etc.
9 month cycle low
Jay

FUTURES Up

Its now 9:15 and futures are strongly higher

glad i bot in yesterday, even tho I didnt hit the LOD
I can only blame myself for not catching the LOD- Its amazing how one little piece of data becomes sooo important

Looks like a 10am -10;15am high
& a 10:45 am setback, which I will probably add to my current position unless I sell it at 10am.

Europe to raise bank deposits protection

Jay

UP Up and away

BUT not for very long

thanks for the praise- tell all your friends and more

I'll try NOT to let it go to my head

the $20K payday was satisfaction for me, and I had a fitful weekend until Sunday Night CME futures

Todays action should peak out between 3 & 4pm
Bernanke at 1pm today

Futures right now at 9AM are now pointing a little lower
150 Bars cycle hit exactly at 2:45 the LOD

The NEXT critical point is 180 bars AT 10:45 am - the mkt might NOT adhere to the lower futures, and might open to a 10am high before settling back to 10:45am

Either way, 10:45 should be the BUY and could be the LOD leading to a strong rally till late afternoon
TOO bad there was such a strong rally after 2:45 yesterday as the rebound would have been more impressive today.

Jay

How LOW is LOW

Its now 2pm, and the deterioration continues past 1pm

Expecting the dow to close at 9550 & spx at 1005-1010

Tomorrow can rebound with great vigor

Wed nesday is not as strong a day as it has an important low due @ 11;30, but can take off from there.

that leads us to the 9th & its 55 tr days from jly23rd High & 110 tr days from May6th high. should be short term HIGH.

the 10th looks ROUGH and leads to the Full moon low of the 14th.
Lower than TODAY??
I dont think so.

Jay

when to buy CALLS

I will be buying calls at todays' close

1pm low
rebound higher after
LOD at 4pm

Jay

Pressure building for a rebound

Todays LOW is DUE at 1pm - SUN 90 Jupiter is a major influence @ 1pm

Also marks 329 bars @ 1pm

Jaywiz indicators are warning a LOW is near & a rebound is close by

Hadik shows 10,023 near term DOW target, then 9870- Possible BOTh could get hit today?

The LOWEr the better today

Astro reading for today = look for non intelligent decisions, caution travel, opinions clash.

Tomorrow Oct 7th = OPPOSITE OF YESTERDAY- get the GO AHEAD SIGNAL

Wed = promising & watch for conflicts

Wed still has a low due at 11:30 am but its only a setback low.

Pressure readings are POPPING where they hit lows on Friday @ 2955 , are now hitting the 3035 levels

VHF now @ 5
power index = 300
Activity index = 1, @ 8am- down from 3 earlier
FLUX smooth at 1035, just above the median

Important low today followed by the mkt clawing its way back up to late Oct peak.

Jay

50% SHORT @ 3:30

the heading says it all
Get ready for the worst on monday
Jay

Rebound today, BUT

Today's rebound might last till noon

should sell off going into vote @ 2pm- WAVE related selling;

Power index shows rally at close and open on Monday with strong selling Monday afternoon

50% of 13 day cycle indicates a low on the 8th at 11am, and pwer index agrees with that outlook.

Jay

GOT IT

OK, that was right on schedule

Very good $$$ day

bot a few calls on close

Tomorrow should OPEN Higher, but I dont see any sticking power. may sell off at close.

I sold out my puts at close today and will rebuy positions during the day tomorrow.

Still expecting the 6th and 7th to provide potential mini crash

More on that later.

Jay

And so it was written

Jaywiz Indicators are negative today

Polarity is negative
VHF a Whopping 25
Power index = a GAP from 500 yesterday to 300 today
Pressure index = 2955
Activity jumper to a 5.3 and thats very HIGh- not sure how that fits with the decline today?
Flux = @900

I posted this on the T&C site
MATH MATH MATH
21 years from 1987 Oct 18th = Oct 2008 = 7670 trade days
WATCH This
ive been telling you about the 13 day cycle
590 X 13 = YES your RIGHT = 7670
THATS Oct 14 @ 4pm & a full moon EXACT at 4pm


JAY

yesterday gets only a 2X -WOW

ITS NOT a matter of IF I should get short & buy puts, BUT WHEN to do it. !!!

I'll make this BRIEF ///

I WILL NOW BE BUYING puts on or b4 the close of biz today, OCTOBER 1st.
moved up from Friday's close to today


Commentary
the Mkt would have DROPPED 777 even if the bill had passed on Monday- so news does not make the mkt
they would have found plenty of reasons to support the hit.

Today we have a somewhat bullish overtone left over from yesterday's euphoria, and even the FTSE is up 100 pts at 9am.

Ratios, even the Jaywiz index @ .77 indicates a fairly strong day today

However
VHF = 8 and is bearish

power index = 500 and a little bullish

Activity index was as high as 3 earlier this AM, and is still hanging at 2.3
thats much better than flat line at near 0 on Monday

Pressure index over 3000 today , but takes a MAJOR drop after today to as low as 2970 by tomorrow

What currently amazes me is the FLUX index which has produced gyrations for 5 days in a row which I have never seen b4 on this in the 2 years I have been watching it.
Today is also shows a level of 900
the range is from 900 to 1070
900 - is MOST bearish

After today we have to look forward to a very serious potential for a BLACK Monday and terrible Tuesday
the 66 hr TIME within the 84.5 hr /13 day cycle is STILL @ 1 to 2pm on Tuesday
that WILL NOT CHANGE

the BIGGER cycle of 13days/ 84.5 hours is still on schedule for OCT 14th @ 11am since the 13th is closed for Columbus day- i think.

That matches a cycle LOW & EW wave LOW projected by JR on one of my private groups. He is a very very Astute Elliottician wave & technical anaylst.

Best for now
Jay

WOW, WOW, WOW

Congress and those Pub's, oh Republicans, or whatever they are - party poopers
and they even expect to get re-elected, and Damn, they probably will

I would guess Democrats just clinched the election

The ARMS index was still ONLY 2.04 = NO PANIC

So when is the real panic going to hit wall st??

I am still targeting the 6th & 7th

Are they even going to try to vote on the Rescue bill again? Maybe next week? Whew !!!!

When to get short, you ask? ASAP

Tomorrow, we might see a sharp rebound after the open, and they might even linger till Wed as the trading tomorrow will be quite muted during the Rosh Hashanah high holiday's

One of my graph's indicates a high tomorrow and another one on Wed, so it could be either. HOW high? Not much - AND it wont matter as the wave looks like its in a 3 of 3 of 3 and that should take them down as there will be NO buyers to be found.

Jay

Deal or NO deal ??

Sounds like a TV game show- Ok Howie, we get it- (G)

Central banks supply xtra $$- send some My way - oh, yeh the puts I bot last week just gave XTRA $$$

What should we expect now?

This downdraft should help scare the HOUSE members so they dont want to be viewed as causing a crash

11:30 and holding steady down 300 pts.

84.5 hrs can stretch into 89 hours which = 3:30 pm today

Expecting a rebound tomorrow and Wed Am.

I will be maxed out in puts on Friday Oct3rd.

the next cycle hit is on the 7th at @1-2pm

Jay
Jay

NO DEAL- UH OH

I should have posted the NO DEAL yesterday, and to some of you it would have struck a chord.

It was already pre ordained

And the deal will get done on Monday, probably just b4 the noon lunch break

VHF today active @ 10
Jaywiz index Tues & Wed @ 21,& 22 but .73 yesterday

Power index hits a high this AM of 500 and drops to 400 by day's end- Maybe some pre open anouncment to give the mkt an adrenaline boost that falls out of bed after the open, but the futures are looking GRIM at 8am

Flux = 900 LOWEST level possible

Pressure = 2986= low levels

Activity index = under 1.0 coming off a 3.0 at midnite, and is flat line for the past 3 hours.

How does the 13 day pivot effect people and markets? your watching in action

It hit at 1pm Wed, and we got yesterday's boost
It hits again on Monday @ 11am- watch the cannons & fireworks when the deal is done.

Coincidental ? Not at all
Markets make the news, not reverse.

Jay

Cycle on schedule

S0000, did you see the rebound after 1pm ? that was the cycle I was talking about

The power index calls for a rebound today ending at tomorrow's open follow thru high


From there, we still have the 13 day pivot low due on Monday @ 11am, which should offer a more powerful rebound from there to October 3rd;;

YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST

I will be MAXED out with PUT options at the CLOSE of OCTOBER 3rd.

The WEEK of Oct 6 to 10th could be historic in nature- exactly what will occur is anyone's guess and I do not have a crystal ball for such things. BUT it will come as a shock to the markets world wide, and the sell off will be considerable.

One thing I can tell you- IT will NOT be financial in nature- that ship is already sailed

Best for now
Jay

Strong downward cycle

1pm Tuesday
That 66 hr cycle seem to be in control, and heading toward its resolution

the last occurance was on Spt5th, and the 4th was also a strong selloff day;

So we should expect today to be weak overall with failed rally attemtps which we already saw this AM

Once the Cycle is complete at about 11am to 1pm tomorrow, then the rebound off of that point should have some sticking power, but should peak on Thursday, if not at the open, then at least similar to today.

Jay

66 hr low

The TREND till Spt 29th is to make lower lows, and lower highs.

Today has a potential high at 12;25, & 3:48 pm.

Tomorrow SPT 24th, expecting the 66 hour low due between 11am and 1pm

A stronger rebound should take hold after that into the open for Thursday.

From there they could continue to hold up most of the day, but a move lower into 11am on the 29th should begin during the day, probably a last hour slide on Thursday..

Jay

Down Monday Spt 22

As predicted, its 10:25 and the dow is off 155

bail out cost rises, and thats just for investment banks. Whats it going to cost to save AIRLINES, or Auto's, & the list goes on.

VHF index = 8 & showing weakness
Jaywiz index = .38 - neutral
OIL + 4.00, not good this week
Power index = 350- toward the LOW side- thus the down mkt
Pressure down to 2990 from a high last week of 3004 = weakness
Activity index ovnt droped from a +2 to 1/2 and flat line = weakness
Flux index = 1010 which is well under the median of 1030, so also weak

WHATS Expected this week?
thanks for asking-
As previously noted,
a LOW on WED at noonish;

Best for now
Jay

UPTREND will continue

BUT NOT on Monday Spt 22nd -

Not all the Jaywiz index data is in, but the one that gives me a future view by one to 3 days is indicating a down day on Monday
Pressure readings dropped from 3040 to 2990 for Monday, but they zoom back up on to 3020Tuesday

Whats NEXT?
Consider Spt 17 the bottom of a 5 wave decline, and forget how it fits into the overall Elliott wave count.

The Spt 18th LOW @ 1pm was the 50% completion of an 84.5 hr cycle that began on 8/21
THUS the blast off which would have occurred regardless of the treasury/Fed or NOT.

10,500 to 11,400 in less than 2 days deserves a good sell off day and that's MONDAY
But the UPTREND should still continue to Oct 3rd.

In the meantime, there's 10 days till then - What should we expect in between? glad you asked.
Lets say the high on the 19th = the top of rebound wave "A"
Whats next is Decline phase "B"

Timewise it looks like the B wave should break down into its own abc
Within the 84.5 hr cycle, we get

9/24 @ 1pm , a Low & the power index agrees @ 200, then to 350 later
power index for 25th = 475 start of the day, STRONG OPEN, but drops to 325 later so any rally that day should fizzle
9/29 @ 11 am to 1pm, a Low , which should give way to the Oct 3rd high- some say SPX 1300.

Hope this is easy enuf to follow
its only 10 days. some analysts give out data relating to what happened in the last 2 years to get where we are now.
That shows us how smart they are with math formulas, but what does that do for us now?- Nothing

Best for now
Jay

Numbers

VHF = 2
under 5 = up mkt

jaywiz index = 46 = up mkt

power index = 500 open & close
up mkt

pressure=
3004 open
2996 mid dai
2004 close

Activity index = 3 = positive

Flux = 1025 & rising= moderate up

additional index --- 5 at lows to 20 at highs
Polarity was @ 5 on 17-18
Now at 10, only moderately higher.

Futures indicate HUGE open to spx 1260 or more
Ftse record Up day

Jay

saved money mkts

Its one thing to save financial companies, but its more important to save the general public which it appears they did by shoring up Money fund accounts

Today's open at spx 1250 begs to be shorted and expect a retreat back to the 1200 area by 2pm

2pm is 90 bars from the 1pm low of yesterday

The close might repeat yesterday's rally and Monday could open at or above 1250, but the GOOD feelings and short squeeze for the work of the treasury will most likely be whats NEXT?

Its good to wkno the even tho the Pres is asleep, weve got others who have been jarred awake and making the neccessary adjustments

it has been said that we may have survived the Money Crisis for now, but another set of SHOES is about to drop in October

Bradley HIGH was expected on the 21st and that means today & Monday
Next weeks levels are expected to decline into the next day of reckoning on the 25th

Will have index numbers later.
Jay

Added Indexes

maybe this group of data will help with direction and amplitude

1. VHF index is a +15 = weak mkt

2. Jaywiz index = .25 on 9day ave = WEak mkt

3, Power index hit 600 at open and now at 500
tomorow at 400
Monday at 300
tuesday at 200
This indicates a declining mkt and could be in a BIG WAY

4. Pressure hit 3040 @ open and drops to 2995 as the day progresses

5. Activity index was @ 3.5 @ oppen and now dropping under 3.0

6. Flux index under 1020 = showing weakness

ALL in ALL the above data indicates the WEAKNESS will continue.
Jay

UH- OH

that chart from ACB shows PANIC selling on Monday;

The High +200 dow today has GONE and it looks BAD for investors, but great for traders

Jaywiz index the last 10 days has hovered in the 29 area on Average, only because one day hit a 60, other wise it would be closer to 25

Im going to add some new indicators and give them names;
1. jaywiz power index RANGE from 200 on the low side to 800 on the high side
Today it openned at 600 and drops off to 500.
Tomorrow , the POWER index drops to the 400 area
Monday its still drops lower to 300
tuesday , Even lower to minimum at 200

2. Jaywiz Pressure index
Range from 2800 to 3100
Today's pressure hit highs of 3004 and drops off to 2996
the LOW of yesterday reading was @ 2958 which plummeted from 3040 on last Friday

there is a danger that the SPX could drop to 1050 area the next 3 days

Jay

Frozen in time

Heres a chart from ACB

You can find him @ www.csiwallstreet.com

Jay

Counted 5 waves Again

Today counted out 5 waves into the close
Wave 4 hit its highs about 3pm

Tomorrow promises an EXPLOSIVE UP OPEN.

But dont expect it to last past the first hour
They wont give the bulls a chance to get in unless you had the _____ to do it today.

I dont expect a major reversal lower tomorrow, but Friday could also open moderately higher and give it up also

A poor close Friday will lead to a major sell off on Monday and probably Tuesday also

Jaywiz index for Monday was .18 = very bearish
Tuesday = .22 very bearish
WEd = .35 Moderately bearish

Jay

wave 4 to go higher

BUT NOT TODAY

Today as futures indicate should open lower, but trade higher most of the day. THEN close lower

Tomorrow, 18th should again open lower, then trade steadily higher with a higher peak on the 19th.

19th is
8day high
Midnite high tide
Bradely high

Goes against the Sun Sq pluto, but Pluto represents death & regeneration - dah, exactly -- LEH & AIG.

However, next week should continue the slide on Monday & Tuesday.

Jay

wave 4

It looks like today's close made a wave 4 rebound, or maybe tomorrow AM

Anyone got another count, let me know.

Still looking for that 55 & 110 day cycle convergence on the 18th probably in the AM.

Monday looks like a very strong day, which is after the Sun Square Pluto on Sunday.


Jay

Thursday is FIBO CYCLE

As mentioned b4, the 18th is a cycle LOW & High and the day could start out as a low & rebound strongly;

The thing to have done today was wait till after the open which is what I did, and shorted at the 11am rebound high dow - 170 from a Low of - 335.

Tomorrow is showing me a lower low as the end of day today closed lower than the 228 bar cycle @ 3:30

the next bar cycle of importance is at 11:45am and then at 2;15pm

Wait - Wait, DID you write 2;15pm?? thats the FED minute !!
Yes it is, and If the Fed reduces the bank window rate, but not the consumer discount rates, then we might get a short bounce into the close.

Its reported that Hadik posted 10,587 between the 8th and 19th.

Murrey math support levels are about to be smashed on the SPX at 1187.50, then lower to 1125 and the bottom of the box is at 1062. BUT ,IMO<>

Jay

Sunday futures -3525 spx dow off 200 at open

CME futures sunday night seem to be reflecting a NO DEAL for LEH, unless something changes between now and tomorrow am with someone in the UK.

Sun Square pluto on the 20th assures a tough week= stress & conflicts

Pressure readings do seem to indicate a higher high might still be out there on Monday, or the readings for a high have already been spent

The readings for most of teh week after monday are DOWN into at least the 18th

Oct 10th is a BIG anniv date and has some heavy astro, where that date could offer the month's low.

Jay

Get ready

A good close today should lead to a very strong OPEN on Friday @10 AM

Initially a high at 10am, and then UP again at noon, after the 10:30 low @ 90 bars.

A somewhat weaker close on Friday at 156 bars

But still expect Monday to open with a solid UP as well, but this will most likely emulate Spt 2nd.

Jay

CYCLE LOW

As promissed, we got he 11am cycle low
Dow openned up 100 and at 11am was off 8.83 for a bout one second.
Now at noon is up 117 and promissing to go higher.

we should get 150 pt rally by the close

looking for a short term trading high on Monday Spt15th- could be one of those 300 pt one day wonders.

Jay

ASTRO effect

You dont have to be a believer to observe the effects of Jupiter TRINE Saturn
Jupiter = Expansion and usually in a BIG WAY
Saturn represents responsibility

SO, Now you know WHY the FNM and FRE bail out happened this wkend.

Tomorrow, the bears are back in control as Venus, the planet of Love and Money, Squares Jupiter.
A complete reversal of euphoria..

Now, dont expect a crash, ITs not going to happen, but a good take away will occur
as mentioned b4, the 13 day (84.5 hr) cycle LOW is Wed at 11amalong with 204 bars at 11:30-
You saw part of it on Friday at the 11:30am LOW

The rally started today, however is NOT over
Still got a high coming Early Friday

Jay

Monday rally as expected

Its now Sunday Spt7th at 8pm

CME futures on NDX are UP 37.25

Spx ftures are UP30.50

As expected a WHOPPER open and strong rally day

Any gains for monday are expected to be short lived as Tuesday could be a complete take away day.

Jay

Timing the Low

Many of my associates are screaming crash- BUT me thinks they are too abundant

Next week is MIXED with turns

Bradley turn on 9th.
8 day low on 9th. also matched timing

9 day turn on 10th @ 11am also = 84.5 hr low & turn
coincidentally matches the 204bar cycle low.

SO, how low is LOW ?
Did we get there Friday and now we are testing the low , then moving somewhat higher against the larger downtrend ?

ThursdaySpt4th appears was an 8 day LOW= 52 hour cycle @ the close which actually ended at 54 hours on Friday @ 11am; Why? because there was a 65/66 hr cycle also due at that point which override the Thursday cycle.

the 66 hr cycle is 78.6% of the 13 day, 84.5 hr larger cycle which hits on the 11th @ 11am as printed above.

From there we should see the market move higher into Friday morning b4 running into reistence and resuming the downtrend for next week.

How high is high?

Possibilities
NDX recent high was 1973 and low was 1743 = 230 pts
230 x 38.2 % = 88 + 1743 = 1831
You can do the math for 50% & the other indeces.

Monday should still offer a strong rally day.

Jay

THANKS

thanks for the acknowledgements

repeating
Today has the potential for a 1:30pm low, and a secondary low @ 4pm OR open on the 4th.

Still got a huge rally expected for the 4th, at least a one day wonder, unlike the open on the 2nd which was a 10 minute blastoff and crash. over 500 pts in one day-.

Jay

blast off

No way to catch that one, and I was not going to buy in last Friday

However, Astro and bar cycles appear to be in sync for a down day tomorrrow till at least 1;30, and maybe even the close

Astro negative hits @ 1;30pm which coincides with 126 bars
156 bars @ 4pm could drag the mkt lower at the close OR the OPEN on the 4th- which would make a great call buy opp.
The 3rd whole day is influenced by a SUn 90 Saturn at 10pm. provides a serious & hard working tone to the day.

4th still ahs potential to make it up to spx 1312, if not later today which would be a great place to short today, looking for that 1;30 pm low tomorrow.

Jay

Bar cycles

So, NOW we see for real the power of bar cycles

What's next week ?/ Hurricane Gustov, and Hanna- what a pair, hope they blow away

Next week might start out a little sloppy, but thats OK with me as it offers an opp to buy some calls at reasonable prices b4 they blast off- Yes thats right BLAST OFF !!

Spt 4th has the best chance of TOPPING and making a HIGH of the month.

Spx got to 1300, and the goal is NOW 1312.

Then 1343 is the next M-Math level. But i doubt we will see that #.

Jay

SPX 1300

Now there's a number that should draw a response.

I know I posted that spx level as a potential peak level, but I thought it would come next week. Are we still on track for a Spt 4th High? YES, we are.

However weve got a tough new moon Saturday,and Gustov still heading at the Oil rigs for the wkend:

Hmmmn, has anyone else ever noticed, we get hit by hurricanes when the mkts are making LOWS, or am I alone with that observation?

Even tho, my scientific observations seemed to point toward a sell off today, we got a decent rally instead, BUT what does that say about tomorrow. Friday is the day after a fibo grouping, and facing a new moon indicating that we should keep secrets-
Strange also that ANYTIME, i get a reading that says we should keep secrets, the mkt plunges, and the reverse when the reading calls for NO secrets.

the PC ratios indicate selling tomorrow
Jaywiz index has become a little unreliable lateley.
Midnite lows and highs have been off by a day at times and this might be one of those times.
My friend, Coy Morphew, reports the futures and his pather indicates a down day.

126 bars cycle @ 11:30, an AM low
156 bars cycle @ 2pm afternoon low
Now the big event I mentioned b4 is 180 bars which WILL STRIKE at the OPEn tomorrow and in 15 minutes or less could wipe out more than 50% of today's gains and continue to head lower till the MAIN 258 BAR CYCLE @, yep you guessed it (( 4pm))

Now in this case we would expect the 4pm cycle @ 258 bars to hit exact rather than on Tuesday AM.
What does that say about Tuesday? I mentioned it b4, we should see a very strong day on the heels of a major drop in oil prices. Remember FEAR is worse b4 the event as we expect the worse , but will rejoice when its over.

Best for now
Jay

OIL

What garbage- Oil down 3.00 and the MEDIA wants to attribute that drop to Gustov NOT threatenning the oil rigs- HEY guys that storm is still 4 days away- what chustpa to attribute a price drop to such a nothing rumor.

Today is a confuence of fibo cycles and a 9 day turn which means things should go the other way tomorrow, and possibly in a big way, especially if the mkt gives up most of its gains later today.

there is a 180 bar cycle @ 4pm which frequently influences the next day open and if you remember last month we had a 60 bar open and the dow was off 130 in the first 10 minutes, & tomorrow this might show a repeat of that type of event.

Jay

Right on schedule

high @ 2;45 today hit right on schedule

Tomorrow could open with a THUD @ 90 to 102 bars

Tonight has merc 90 pluto @ 9:35 pm and a VERBAL war could erupt- somewhere- most likely Russia & US or Iran. Or we might be surprised by someone's speach tonight
waging verbal war on republicans.

Gustov charted for New Orleans- just when we were getting a break- Remember I posted gas prices to get to 3.50, i just paid 3.62- buts thats all she wrote> Grr.

Expect a low on Friday, maybe extending to 1pm, then a late recovery.

28th is midnite low and at 6am the next morning, we get Venus 90 pluto;
venus in Virgo make her very picky & insecure

When Gustov passes BY New Orleans with little or no damage to OIL supply, watch it PLUMMENT next week, and stock prices exlode up on Tuesday

Jay

cross currents

Today has the potential to rally, but cycles are still weak, and any rebound today should be short lived.

the 28th is a low tide day and venus 90 pluto will have its negative effect.

8:30am
Europe is recovering some from its intraday lows, and FTSE is now Up 30 pts
Durable goods report bumped the futures Up

Thursday Aug 28 is an 8 day cycle and its looking like it will be a LOW
that makes Friday a 9 day TURN and Im still expecting a lower open with a revocery

Next week's highlighted event is Spt 4th with a SUN 120 jupiter @1:42pm followed by a couple of lunar sextiles also positive energy. Should be the HIGH of month

Often, we find labor day putting in an important high or low, and this year is no excpetion
Jay

Aug 26

today was 55 june 6 which was a down 300 pt day

Tomorow is 110 march 19th which was a closing low other than the intraday low on march 17

jaywiz index = .33 neutral to negative bias

If a rally at the open, i will buy puts and wait till noon to sell and 2pm to buy calls

Cycles still calling for a lower day tomorrow

SPX 1259 should hold, but if not then 1255 is next level to watch.

Jay

Monday Aug 25th
Cycles are pointing DOWN and could start with a SLUMP.
Needless to say this was a big $$ day

180 bars struck at 3pm, and offered the LOD

Tuesday might start with a moderate rally, but Mid day offers the BUY for the HUGE rebound on the 27th.

204bars @ 10:30
228Bars @ 12:30
258 bars @ 2pm

I think that 12:30 will offer the LOD;

More $$ will be made on the rebound.

Jay

September 2008

A low on August 8th should lead to a high on Spt4th

From there a deeper low could be possible for the end of Spt which could possibly set the stage & start a mild rising trend thru March or April of 2009

Jay

Monday Aug 25th

Cycle are pointing down for the day and could start with a slump at the open.

Still got Tuesday for big Up

Wed peaking

Thursday much lower

friday starts lower , and should recover some

Jay

Friday Aug 22

looks like a big open

may not last all day, but could drop and recover by days end

Opposite of Yesterday

Monday offers a sloppy day, and one where you should be cautious and little will go right.

Tuesday promises a day of extravagance including stock prices

Wed - more of the same but could turn mid day and head lower

Thurs & friday head for the new moon and a low tide, so do look out for a possible new low for the month.

Jay

stealth rally

the 130 pt rally came off a 100 pt down open.

My cycle work was mixed today and the result is what you saw happen.

Jaywiz index is now somewhat bearish @ 26
PC ratios are neutral to bearish

heres a few things to take not of.

Oct 9 to Aug 15 = 216 tr days = 27 segments of 8
May 19 to july 15 = 39 tr days
July 15 to Spt 9 = 40 tr days = A bradley date
Spt 9 to Nov 4th = 40 tr days

Aug 22nd has a high tide
But the cycle has turned DOWN

Jay

Wheres that rally ?

Its 2:45 pm on WEd Aug 20

Got a false start today high @ 11am

150 bars @ 10am
204 bars @ 2:30- I would like to see that low HOLD at the close

Tomorrow has the astro look of a potential big Up day till 1pm

Jay

Wed Aug 20

Its now 8:30 AM on WEd Aug 20

Most of my research indicates a solid Upday today

Jaywiz index Mon = .56
Tues = .47

OEX , PC & SPDR ratios also bullish readings

84.5 hr cycle HIGH @ 11am TOmorrow

yesterday's 126 bar cycle low was due at 2:45 and looks like it hit @ 3:15- within the margin of allowed cycle time stretch.

Jay

update

Its now 2pm on Tuesday Aug 19th;

Lows hit at 10:23 at the Lunar mars 180

Also hit a low @ 12:30 on the 102 bar cycle

Now expecting 126bars cycle @ 2:45 and that might be the LOD

A rebound from there should carry them up till mid day on Wed, and from there its pretty much biased lower till 11:15am on Friday

best wishes
Jay

Has there been a trend change?

friday was an 8 day HIGH
Today is a 9 day TURN

next 8-9 day grouping is the 28/29th

HIGH energy levels are upon us today and it looks like they abate tomorrow

just what that means for stock prices remains to be seen.

Today is also 216 tr days from Oct 10th, and should /could offer a CHANGE in trend.

Best for now
Jay

Still on the upswing

Preliminary indications for a Monday high are still posible

If we get a spurt at the open, it could offer the best shorting opp in 2 weeks.

Jaywiz index shows .15 and lowest value in 2 wks

Gold dropping, Oil and commodities all making lower numbers, and should continue this week - we need lower gas prices. $3.50 or lower would be ok for now, and lower later.

Friday was an 8 day high, making Monday a 9 day TURN which should make for a WEd low
Still got potential for Aug 22nd TOP which may or may not be higher than spx1312. Several attempts to break out are common when you get intermediate uptrends. Many still expect the july 15th low to be tested, and thats my lead for the next paragraph.

My19th high @ 13,000, and spx 1440
Jly 15th LOW was 40 trade days and Dow 11,000 with spx @ 1200

There was an NYSE record of 1304 new lows that day- so we should be watching NOW for a lower SPX, NYSE low with LESS new lows for the day in order to say we have seen the BOTTOM. IF there is a lower low with MORE new lows, then we havent seen the bottom

Spt9th is the next important Bradley date and is coincidentally 40 trade days from July 15th

Add another 40 trade days from there takes us to Nov 4th, AH yes Election day and Ive mentioned it several times over the past few months as having a grouping of tough aspects occurring on the 3rd and 4th.

At the Spt 9th date, there is a large grouping of MIXED aspects on Sun the 7th , 8th and 9th which dont appear
to be abundantly negative, thus I think it would be prudent to consider that date a high. In between, however, as mentioned above we have a possible high on Aug 22nd, and now we are thinking a low on Spt 3th with potential rebound to the 9th.

All in All the Fall usually is a tough time for stocks, and with an election upon us accompanied by some very difficut aspects, I would venture to say we should not expect anything in the way of a strong rebound until after nov 4th. In other words, another rebound such as July 15 TO Aug 11th is not expected, but a NEITHER is a CRASH


Best for Now
Jay

NOW WHAT ?

OK, they got to 1312 on monday at about 2pm
5 days Arms = 87.4 indicating a short term sell
5 day trin = 437 - Ditto
10 day trin = 968 Ditto
P/C ratios neutral

July 15 low to Aug 11 high = 18.5 days
July 15 to Aug 22 = 28 days
28 days less 18.5 days = 8.5 days

1/2 of that = 4.25 days
Aug 11th at 2pm + 4.25 days = friday @ 4pm

It appears we got a rebound from the low which = wave "A"
guessing that we will have a 3 wave structure of A-B -C

Where's "B "going??

240 pt loss X 50% = 120
1200 + 120 = 1320, Ok we got to 1312, close enuf
120 pt gain from July 15 x
38.2% =46 which carries out to 1266
50% = 60 1252
61.8% = 74 1238

So, we have a range of 1238 to 1266 by friday Aug 15th.
where does that make numbers for the week after? good question.
August 22 nd should find the market ending at 1340 area which could offer a 600 to 800 pt dow rally that week. Astro is lite and positive that week.

Best for now
Jay

Thanks for the encouragement

Weve mentioned the math b4 and here it is again

SPX 1440 -1200= 240 X 50% = 120
spx 1200 + 120 = 1320
its also 3 divisions of 40 pts

Same with Dow
14000 - 11,000 = 3000
50% retracement = 12,000

Will we get there on Tuesday?

If Monday drops UNDER well under 1280, then any rally on Tuesday might not make it, but the reading I have is quite positive.
1320-40 = 1280, and yes its that simple

Ive added a 5 day ave to the Jaywiz index, and it is at historical highs measured against the past
FEb 26 = 47.5
Apr 1st = 38.9
May19 = 35.6
Now = 48.7
After Feb 26th, the dow fell 1000 pts into May10th. - just 8 days

Eclipse such as this wkend can go either way but usually accentuates the most current trend
and the solar eclipse on the 1st was within a decline trend.

Best for now
Jay

RE Group

ive taken some time to re analyze why last week was so bad for me, and I think Im back, but we'll see next week

The Jaywiz index of 1.10 on wed should NOT have been pushed aside as it became obvious as the day progressed on Friday

Some of my data was mixed and thus I could not be sure of my projections

NOW here's what we have:

Jaywixz index = .84 and is also indicating another Upday, but not neccesarilly on Monday

Monday opens with a 90 bar cycle, and the futures did close lower friday- we can see what they read tonight at 6pm EST. the 90 bar cycle means a SHARPLY LOWER OPEN, and the readings for the day are quite negative.

SO, any rebound off Monday should occur on tuesday which has a much more positive reading

But from there Im expecting a strong sell off into OE on friday

The absorption level on Friday was a 7
and the reading for today is 17, which indicates selling

Ive still got some conflicting data, but Im still going to project a lower day monday.

Best for Now
Jay
PS, its amazing how your comments are totally lacking during the 2 weeks I nailed the market, but I miss one day and someone is ready to fade my work.

Friday Lower

most of my data prefers a lower day on friday, and for now Im sticking with that game plan.

90 bars cycle @ 4pm

today hit highs at 1pm, and the rest of the day was lower
3pm @ 258 bars , thus start a new cycle.

Since the market dropped lower AFTER the 258 bar cycle, it means to me LOWER.

8th is the open ceremony of the Olympics on 8-8-2008 : add the digits = 8
8 is Saturnian in nature , but represents good fortune for Chinese people.

Jaywiz index yesterday = a whopping 1.10, and today =.52

The last time we watched a build up we got big days on 29, & 30th

Im going to get into position on Monday for a HUGE one day rally on Tuesday, and again on Thursday, but maybe not as strong.

IF you remeber what I wrote WAY BACK when, I projected a HIGh at the August 16th ECLIPSE and thats just what we will get.

Dow High 14,000 - Low @ 11K = 3000 pts
50% = Dow 12,000
Can it be that simple? yes it can.

spx1200 + 120 = 1320, and ive mentioned that several times last week.
thats also a 50% retracement

But watch out afterward as rumors are spreading around the web for possible terrorist actions in the next few months at malls, airports, sports stadiums, etc. and reaction by the US military. In Israel, a discarded valise is cause for alarm by every citizen but here it might even get stolen by some shmuck thinking its got a $mil in it.

Nov 4th - has Saturn 180 Uranus & Mars square neptune & venus Square uranus & Venus Square saturn
those combinations are very severe, and very unfriendly to human behavior, so theres NO telling what will happen on or near Election day

Best for now
Jay

Wed game plan

I think Im going to stick with my original assesment of WEd and Thurs

Which means short a higher open (buyputs) and sell at 3pm

Same for Thursday, or maybe hold for friday @ 3pm- I dont like to hold overnight anymore, but this time it might be ok.

Jay

Wed Aug 6th

Wed Aug 6th is a midnite HIGH TIDE DAY, which means the day should close on its highs

Its also a MAJOR convergence day with Multpile fibo and other cycle convergences

However, the Afternoon at 2:50pm has some heavy duty astro that can back stab anyone's rally.

Some of the data i have indicates a possible LOWER open, rally till about 1pm, then a sell off into that 2:40-3pm time zone and a huge rebound in the last hour.

We are at spx1284 NOW for the 4th time in a month since the July15th LOWS. 1291.17 was the HOD previously THUS any break above that with volume could get the SPX to 1320; Gee, I did mention that number last week.

SO, If I dont go long, then Ive got to hold out and buy puts on the close or wait for the open on Thursday.
Today i sold out early, but Im satisfied with the results.

I might have to sit this one out. Now, you know that wont be easy. (G)
Jay

Game Plan

Bot calls at 1pm on Monday and sold them at 10am on Tuesday and got 30 pts
Sure its higher at 2pm, but I dont care. ive got other things to do with my time.

As for Wednesday,Aug 6th, Im planning to Sell the open at about 10am.(buyputs)

I am expecting to sell those puts at 3pm

Repeat the same process for the 7th.

You could hold them till 2pm on the 8th

Hope this clarifies how to trade this week

Jay

monday 11am update

Still flat line so no advances as of yet.

Could take till the 258 bar cycle @ 1pm

Or just the last 30 minutes from 30bars @ 3:30

The calls prices on qqqhr are really hanging tough @ $1.25 area ,but did hit a low of $1.15

Ndx did NOT quite challenge 1800 as yet but did hit 1805

Looks like Today will require an all day vigil
so what else is new? (G)

Jay

Monday Aug4th

Today looks like a lower open following on the last 30 minute downtrend on friday

However,
from the data I collect
It looks like BUY calls on the lows at probably 10;15 to 10:30, and sell the OPEN on Tuesday at 10am OR if you want, just hold till about 2pm where a secondary high should set the stage for a lower close.

Jaywiz index = .28, not bullish , but NOT overly bearish unless it counts for today's open.

A run to spx 1290 by tomorrow afternoon would not be out of the question

Jay

LOWER away

WE got to SPX1290 on the 23rd with a close of 1282
then 1234 on the 28th and 1284 on the 30th

It looks like an ABC rebound off the 15th low of spx 1200 intrady.

SO now we have the potential to take out 1200 in the next few days

Today closed as expected

tomorrow indicates lower all day with a last hour potential rally

180 bars @ 1:30
204 bars @ 3:30

Fascinating time coordination this week
Monday LOD @ 3:50pm
Tuesday HOD @ 3;50pm
Wed HOD @ 10:30am
Thurs HOD @ 10:30am

Huge multiple time convergence on the 6th
Best for now
Jay

july 15 low

What we have is WILD swings in a series of A-B-C's
You can clearly see 3 wave structures in both directions, or at least I can.

the july 15 low and subsequent rebound is still in effect and hasn't finished its trip to the top of the mountain.
But As for tomorrow, I have preliminary indications of a low @ 3:30pm at 126 bars, and You can see the potential for a DOWN leg to complete another 3 wave structure.

spx lost 240 pts may 19 to july15
240 x 38.2 =92 + 1200 = 1292, and we almost got that today.

A 50% rebound = 120 + 1200 = 1320, and that could be the final goal, BUT NOT tomorrow

New moon solar eclipse should set the stage for tomorrow's, among other data that I have accumulated.

Jay

Aug 6th time conversion

34 tr days from Jne19
55 from May19, a high
81 from Apr10, a high
110 from Feb 27, a high
117 from Nov 26, a low
122 from Feb13, a high

Eclipse date is Aug 1st @ 6am
Aug 6th = Mars 180 Uranus @2:38 pm
Merc 180 Nptune @ 2:42 pm

readings that week are wild;
Monday, Aug4th calls for a roller coaster type day, which, imo, hold onto your _____
Tuesday Aug 6th reads Improvement over yesterday
Wed Aug 6th calls for Accidents, tempers & highly volitile
Thurs & fri are rebounds.

As for today, we got exactly what was expected. a 10:30 HOD failed to hold and they are selling off dramatically and will continue into the 31st;
Bar cycle for 31st = 126 b @ 3:30 which should provide a low .

best for now
Jay

Eclipses

August 1st and Aug 16th
August 30th a second new moon in one month. very rare occasion

As projected , the market had a good day today
the HIGH jaywiz index readings did show its stuff today- delayed reaction

Many major declines or so called crashes have occurred during eclipse months, usually b4 or after.
Jan 22nd was a full moon, but the eclipse was on FEb 6th, 15 days later.

This time, however, we have a Mars 180 Uranus in between on Aug 6th, and that could tip the scales in favor of a large decline starting on the 4th.

I can't stress this time period more. as it might be one of the most important market events this year.

Today's rally into the CLOSE was helped along by a Sun 0 Merc @ 4:05pm, just for those of you who still dont understand the relationships of our planet to the cosmos.

Science has many studies linking solar and cosmic forces effecting our planet, especially people and behavior.

heres a bit of news - LA quake 5.8 talk about cosmic forces-- whew

Jaywiz index today = .26
CBOE pc ratio = .84
OEX pc ratio = 1.00
but more important SPDR ratio = .80, a drop from 3.27 yesterday

Oil down to 122, looks ready to give a $5.00 pop
Gold down $60 in so many days also might pop

best for now
Jay

power is upside

the 29th has potential to rebound all day.

I will buy on a lower open and most likely sell the close

One day rebound is overdue

the Jaywiz index = .29, not strong by any means, but dont forget we had 3 high readings last week, and in my experience, there is sometimes a delayed reaction

Spdr pc ratio which was 1.00 on Friday is now a whopping 3.27= a buy

Arms index = 1.65 and that indicates a lot more selling to follow, but not tmorrow.
Thursday's arms index was also only 1.57

Note : In order to get a strong bottom we need to see the one day ARMS index
of at least 3.00 or higher and would be even better back to back.
Thats called a CLIMACTIC ending when yuo get 3 days back to back with high Arms ratios

We could get that on the Aug 4th to 6th action

best for now
Jay

down monday indicated

Preliminary indications are for a down Monday
Jaywiz index = .34 mildly negative

It looks like the Jaywiz Index high numbers earlier this week had little effect as the SPX 1290 threashold resistence level might have been the top of a 90 point rebound

PC ratio = .83 and is negative
Vix = 22.91
Spdr ratio = 1.00
SPX 500 ratio = 1.25
OEX ratio = .35 and is extremely bearish, if I got the right data.

Consider the LOD was at 3:30 and the 30 b low cycle @ 2pm, then in my experience, the trend is still DOWN

The 60 b cycle is @ 10am and indicates a sharply lower open as we also watched that occur recently as i mentioned last week.

The Eclipse on 8/1 at 6am seems to be a natural magnet for a low as most new moons seem to be, but this one is enhanced by the solar eclipse.

Aug 4th to 6th has some heavy dute astro events which could settle the dispute over the bottoming process

best for now
Jay

Noon on July25th

YO can see a number of thisngs from this chart

1. the OBV is DROPPING

2. the Ult oscilator is declining

3. the dow made a second attemtpt to move higher but stopped at the 85 level, and the balance of the day should attemtpt to stay afloat

The 258 bar count cycle was @ 11:30. and there was a low at that time point, but he dow is dropping lower AFTER the completed 258 bar cycle, and is starting a new one & going lower.

A LOWER close today spells a very serious day for Monday.

best for now

Jay

Another view

You can also view this week's drop off as an ABC
today would be looked as an X wave
that leaves another potential ABC for next week

which means at least another 350 dow points or more
best for now
Jay

SPX sell signal

Thanks to Ethan, this chart shows the SPX has broken support and is now on a SELL

Jay

today's potential

This week off the intraday highs on Wed.

Dow High = 11,697

Dow Low yesterday = 11,348

Difference = 350 pts

From high to low looks like 3 waves

that means to day is wave 4

wave 4 can reach 38.2% of the loss

350 x 38.2% = 134 pts + 13348= 11482 is the highest potential

the first rally got to 11,443 which = 103pts = 29%

is that enuf? -- maybe

Once wave 4 is complete, they give it up to wave 5 which usually = wave 1 but could also be mcu worse.

We have some indications that show the market dropping all next week, with of course soem intraday lifts, but nothing that sticks until Aug1st.

Jay

BITE ME !!

Down from the start & NON stop tot he close, But you already knew that
and of course you also know that's exact opposite to what my work told me for today

I wouldn't rule out a rebound open, but If that happens, I will be shorting it as I had expect to go short at todays , chhmmm highs

Time& cycles had posted a high for the 25th, and I had the 24th, - both of us appear wrong.

No I dont expect a big rebound tomorrow, on Friday.

More later
Jay

Jaywiz Index

Jaywiz Index = WOW WOW a whopping .88

Except for the open , most of tomorrow should be a screamer.

using Murrey math levels, the spx closed above 1281, and the next level is ( 1312 ) they might get to 1320 b4 giving up at least 1/2 of the day's gains


Spooz close virtually flat, but ndx is up 850
Ndx which was suffering on Tuesday, but came alive today

july24 is 8 day high
july25 is 9 day turn

Update in the AM if anything changes about the open.

best for now
Jay

Just as described

Nice volatility today as mentioned yesterday

Got in early and out late;

Tomorrow opens with a 90 bar cycle @ 10am and should slip into that low, but maybe not as severe as today.

but once again the day should recover and move higher.

today's Jaywiz Index is , Yup a wildly bullish @ 68, so whatever we got today is going to be superceded shortly;

remember that the 24th is an 8day high and the 9th is an 9 day turn, which could be higher intraday, or not.

Time and cycles has the 25th for a high and 8/1 as a low which is a solar eclipse day.

best for now
Jay

Timing stats

July 22nd = 110 tr days Feb 13

july 22 = 55 tr days May2nd

Wed = 89 tr days / march 17

But more important
24th is 8 day high
25th is 9 day Turn

24th is 90 tr days march 17
&
200 tr days oct10, 2007

24th is Midnite high and moon cycle high

Spx 50% retrace = 1320

Tomorrow could be day traders delight with large moves in both directions.

Jay

Slow DRIP

Not the kind of day to make a lot of $$

It would appear the 259 bar cycle truncated at Friday's close @ 252 bars,and according to Stan Harley who discovered this cycle, thats allowed as most cycle do expand and contract frequently.

reminder, in case you forgot~~~ALL BAR CYCLES ARE LOW POINTS

So what happened after? as long term readers know, the cycle starts over once 258 bars have completed.
Today's 30 bar cycle @ noon to 12:15
Today's 60 bar cycle was perfectly timed at 2;30 to 2:45

The closing Spooz are Minus 1250, and that should offer a sharply lower open, and almost vindicate my call for a dow off 200 pts. starting from the open today was 11,505 , we could be off 150 from that level at the start, but that should provide a very good opp to buy calls as the day should improve for a mid day high b4 dropping off.

Jaywiz Index is mildly bullish @ .43
Oex pc ratio = 1.20 ~ ditto
spx 500 pc ratio = 1.96 ~ ditto

Vix still dropping @ 23.05

Today was a 70 year Gann convergence. for whatever that might mean to some one.

Best for now
Jay

Bar cycle count

Friday was a difficult day to read the bar ccycles as they were not well defined.

However, as best as i can read, heres the cycles for Monday

258 b cycle @ 10am, AND if they make a deep cycle low at that point, it might be the LOD, but i doubt it as the
Sunday night 7 pm Spooz are virtually flat.

As long term readers know, the cycle starts over After 258Bars.

30bars now cycle @ 12:30
60bars cycle @ 3pm

you will remember the open on the 11th was exact @ 60bars, and can be quite exciting.

Im still expecting a lower day Monday, and a Lower open on Tuesday to buy calls at premium prices.

The week from there looks higher with a more solid runup on the 24th where a couple of geomag cycles converge.

Jay

rally will continue, but

The rebound will continue, but monday should offer about 200 dow pts OFF

From there, however, the rest of the week should trend higher to an SPX high of 1292 - 1320
Why those #s
240 pts was the loss
240 X 38.2 = 92 which is 1200 + 92
You can do the math for 50% retrace.

I was under the impression the market would drop into the Eclipse on Aug 1st, but that doesnt seem to be what we will witness.

What about oil? After Monday, it should continue to drop down to hopefully the $100 level or less.
Can you imagine were hoping for $100, amazing, last year we were UNhappy with $65 oil,,, Ggeeesh.


Jayiwz index this week;
mon = .23
Tues = .20
Wed = .41 ahah - see the rally firm up
Thurs = .25
Fri = .22
The BEAR pressure is still in effect, but might be weakening

best for now
Jay

Success

How many people in this world can prdict a 500 pt rally 2 days prior ???

Someone tell Donald Trump

No, never mind, I really want to keep this a secret

Now what; You ask

Casey lowers the boom, thats what

I told another member of a web group to expect OIL to drop like a rock the last 2 days , and of course to me that was a no brainer considering i was looking for a run up on the dow.

Today's low of day cycled @ 11:15 at 120 bars
another minor dip @ 160b at 2;45 - was supposed to be @ 1:45

The NEXT 2 days should sell off severely into monday

Best for now
Jay

good money day

today turned out to be a good trading day $$$$

Tomorrow should duplicate today till 3pm

Today's cycles
30b @ 10:20 today was a buy in , even tho I missed the earlier low
60b cycled @ 12;45, very minor dip
3;15 hit @ 90 b also

Im trying to reconcile another cycle today
11:45 & 2;15 were more prominent lows

spx should make it to 1271-1276 tomorrow at its highs.

Jay

rally continues

Even tho Im fighting it in my mind, the data i rely on says we go up thru the 17th.

Full moon on 18th @ 3am influences the 17th as positive

I dont know If I will buy the open lower today or not, but according to my data, I should.

18th calls for BE FLEXIBLE, and to me that means a CHANGE in direction.

Jay

Downtrend will continue

Sell any morning rallies

the market will stay in a downtrend until at least the Augst 1st Eclipse

Jay

Rebound still possible

got a 250 pt rally but Haha, it came off a 200 pt decline = 450 pt day;

got in calls this Am and sold them later for a very nice money day.
Took ____ to buy calls this AM , but my scenario was good, and I bot into it.

Tomorrow still looks promising for an UP day; However, Im planning to SHORT it, as Thursday and Friday look LOWER.

Jay

Rebound due

Any rebound next 2 days is extremely short lived.

Downtrend is still in effect

Spx held 1225 - under 1219 would have dropped quickly to 1188, but not now

Charts edge has them dropping all week. WCA had today right and rebound tomorrow.

Today's lows
150 bars @ 10:30am
180bars @ 1:15pm
204bars @ 3;20pm

Tomorrow could open a little lower @ 10:45 = 226 bars, but its not a must;
spx futures closed flat
q's show a little lower open.

Jay

Sunday 7pm SPOOZ

SPX futures are UP 12.30 indicating an up open X 8 = 100 dow points

As I wrote the 11AM trine is very powerful

But It doesnt look like it will be very lasting

still expect lower for day

Jay

Monday LOWS

July 14th should bring in a very short term low
spx 1200 to 1188

the rally on the 15th and 16th will look Spectacular, and most likely be led by financial stocks
ndx should get at least a 100+ bounce
spx + 60 or more
dow + 500 or more

oversold bounce really over due but downward cycles still in charge

8 day low due Monday and turn on Tues.

early scientific readings are confirming lower for Monday
will be able to get better readings later Sunday

Jay

Whipped

Monday July 14th is the Capitulation LOW, for now short term.

Midnite low tide

Day after bradley on 13th = 14th

8 day LOW

Scientific data indicates a low

Spx should break 1219 and hit the 1200 mark, ---- could go as low as Murrey math 1188

258 bar cycle started new @ 10:30am on Thursday
60 bars hit right at the open
102 bars then cycled @ 1pm low
the close is 6 bars short of the next important mark which will be

144b @ 10am on monday's open should be lower till 10am.
Then there is a sun trine uranus at 11am which should mark a rebound high, but from there its straight down to 3:30 @ 204bars or 3:45 pm

Jay

early highs gone

Typical bear market action- love them at the open and hate than at the close.

July9th puts an official bear market stamp on the market

bar cycle today has a potential low @ 1:45 to 2:15

90 Bars cycle at 9:45 on 11th has potential to mark a very short term low.

Would then look for a high on Monday @ 11am; downtrend to continue into the 15th

Jay

Renewed CRASH Alert

Today's action renews the CRASH alert posted last week.

Need I say more ????

I dont think so.

Jaywiz index Monday = .14
Tues = .28
Wed = .26
Merc 180 pluto is like a snowball on a downhill slope which becomes an avalanche
mars 0 Saturn = WAR & a DOSE of Reality
Bradley date looks like a LOW or not even, but just a part of a declining trend into the August 1st eclipse.

Jay

Notice the wave from 10am to 11;30 forms in a 5 wave set with wave 4 overlapping wave 1
Under Elliott rules, this is considered a failure wave indicating a change of direction as you can see from the folow up decline.

Also note the OBV is in a steady declining phase from the open with only a minor bounce at 10;30.

Macd also topped at 10;30

Ult osc topped at 11am

Jay

back to short term

Expected a high tomorrow, but today is just fine;

Gonna get wild and crazy this week and next

heres the outcome

Down into 10th mid day
up thru monday july14th at 11am
down into 15th
up into 17th, down into 22nd

Drive everyone crazy except day traders who can catch the waves.
Jay

Crash mitigated for now

Even though there has been a lessening of a CRASH potential, we still MUST be vigilant of a declining market from NOW till Nov 4th and maybe into December

I use NOV 4th - NOT due to political reasons but for cycle events

I'm Still focused this week on July10th @ 2;15pm
Interesting the LOD on Monday was @ 2:15pm at 90 bars

Using the progression that I mentioned b4 we might look like this;
spx hit 1440 on May19 & May30
1440 - 40 pt segments to 1260 = 180 pts , and thats 4 X 40 =160 + 20
now that leaves another 20 pts open, but wait , we got that Monday !! SO, is that all there is?
well Maybe---
Using Murrey math; the break under 1250 would infer a test or close of 1219, and yes it would seem we got that, but July10th is still in the way of a rebound, so another test of 1220 must be viewed as quite possible..

Also keep in mind we are in a market that is the antithesis of the rising trend that held the bulls attention for 5 years from 2002 to 2007. SO that means EVERY rally is suspect of being a selling OPP.

The Bradley date of July6th may have brot in a short term low on the new moon of the 3rd, but there does not seem to be ANY support for a sustained rally.
In addition, the next Bradely date is July13, and it might turn in a VERY SHORT TERM high with a rebound late on the 10th ending on the 14th mid morning, and that would encompas the 13th date.

The bradley model has been right on track this year and it now shows a sustained decline from here to Dec15th: - so AGAIN we must be wary of the potential for much further declines this year.

best for now
Jay

STill coming

looks like I got my Monday and Tuesday mixed up.

WCA has the same depiction

Today so far we have the OBLIGATORY dow +100 pts

Erik Hadik says dow 11,437 is the threashold at this juncture.

A Sun 180 jupiter takes over and is related to stress and poor communications along with Merc 180 Pluto on the 10th, but the BIG GUN is Mars 0 Saturn on the 10th. That will call in the chips and bulls will throw in the towel.

Jay

One day at a time

thats the way the market works so why shouldnt WE.

Brokers tell you to look over the valleys and hope for the mountains. You dont NEED the money now, so why worry, be happy- no seriously, the market has spoken and it is in BEAR trend, so IF your long term, I would take steps to protect the value of your portfolio.

Monday is scheduled to open DOWN- how far and how long? that is the question
As for tomorrow, we can envision 2 scenarios
1. the LOD on Thursday, ( seems like ages ago) was at 10:15 @ 259 bars; If we add 70 bars its gets us to 329 and that would hit @ 9:45 am to 10am.
2. If the 259 bars cycle closed out @ 10:15, then the next cycle which became clear at 30bars @ 12:45 low would take us to 11;30am @ 60bars.

There is astro to suppport a 11;30 low as well as 90 bars @ 1:46pm.

Once the low is set we should see a rebound but still lower close.
another interesting point about astro- Venus trine Uranus on the 6th, is often found hovering just b4 a major decline- which was also a bradley date.

Im still gettingThrusday @ 2pm if my bar count is right which matches an important astro event at the time.

best for now
Jay

Potential crash next week

Yes !! -- this a REPEAT WARNING !!!!

Ive given you the data b4- scroll back

Now we also have a convergence of longer cycles on July22nd

54 tr days goes back to May6th a previous Bradley date
360 trade days goes back to FEb 20th, 2007, just prior to the 415 pt drop on the 27th
500 trade days goes back to July 23, 2006 , the mid year low
110 tr days Feb 13

Best for now
Jay

Potential crash next week

Any rally today as the futures are pointing higher is doomed to fail later today.

I've been out of touch the last few days as I was traveling and now entertaining family from out of town all this week.

However, I did post very important information about July10th as a potential short term bottom, and you can scroll back to get all the data.

After a few days of failed rally attempts, the market appears doomed to take a bigger plunge next week with July10th as the focus.

best for now
Jay