Monday, Monday, cant trust that day

Monday's in literature and real life have been know for catastrophe's

Will this Monday be such a day ???

It seems Friday's last hour may have setup a wave 1 down @ 3pm and wave 2 @4pm

Ive counted out 2 bar cycles converging at 4pm
1. hits with 180 bars
2, hits with 329 bars
Both are consistently apparent at LOW POINTS

Monday's reading calls for a financial problem, and morning difficulties.

It is the 138 anniv of the 1869 panic- ?? if that means anything ???

October , according to some techncial analysts is begging to take out the August lows.

I still have the same dates as previously posted.
Oct 1 - LOW

Oct 5 a high, possibly the 8th, but more likely the 5th
Oct 10 now looks like the most likely day for a serious low that week, as the new moon is at midnite , which opens the 11th for what I would call a pivotal day.
Oct 12th reading calls for an UPBEAT and DYNAMIC day.

The next time period for serious consideration is the week of the 22nd to 25th.

Best Wishes
Jay

Potential short today

Today's full moon AfTER EFFECT should represent a turn lower and provide a profitable short opp.

positive influence at 1:30 today might be good time to take a position ??

other wise, the close today or open tomorrow accompanies a 126 bar hit and should coincide with a drop in the market. Most likely the open as a 56 hour cycle high hits late today.

There is a strange GAP in the solar energy chart tomorrow, and low energy levels shown for
the 28th. BUT there is positive energy later in the day which could stabalize the market

Monday is expected to continue the decline most of the day.

From there, the market should rebound into the 8th.

Jay

Can the bears recover?

Not according to CNBC-- bears are dead in the water.
If only the signals were that clear at the bottom.

It takes at least 5 days for a market to top out, which may or may not have already happened.

At the LOWS such as Aug 15,16, it only takes a few hours to bottom out, especially in a strong bull market.

In 1982, it took many years thru all of the 70's to reach a bottom. but were in a totally different kind of environment.

Many of the participants on other web sites seem to be comisserting theri losse also.

Unwarranted rate cuts to bail out the foolish- hey, then why not give us back our foolish losses??

October has the possibility of making a 5 wave decline, but will it be HUGE or meager??

Huge would be to the liking for some people I converse with, but it doesnt lookthat way.
Unless there is a coup in IRan while @#$&*^% is here, or something else occurs, then I cant see anything but a possible easy 5 wave correction to the 25th.

Heres the break down
October 1st, a low
Oct 8th, a high
Oct12, a low
Oct 19th, a high
Oct 25th a low
FROM There, its buy buy buy all the way to late November, and maybe further.

Remember, I did state my expectations for Dow 18,000 by 2010.
Dow 18k would put gold at or near $1000

Can October be severe? Sure
Some Elliott wave people are viewing the Aug 16 to Spt 21 run as a "B" wave, thus openning the door to a "C" wave. If its a running correction in a strong bull market, then the ending will not be any lower than 12,800.

If a normal Nasty "C" wave, it should coincide with some dramatic event, and since Money problems seem to be under control, HMMM, then it would come from some world event. Whats that you ask? The DOLLAH is getting murdered!! NO one seems to care ---- just YET> ???
How low can the dollar go until it effects stock pricies?? Damned if I know

More later
Jay

Pay the PIPER

I dont know where that expression came from, but its beginning to look like this week will match that saying.

Most important appears to be Wed at NOOn where numerous influences meet
Reading for the day calls for upsets, pay the piper, and money problems.

It wont end there, but Wed afternoon could offer a reprieve.

Continued pressure is indicated for Thursday as well

And it doesnt end there, as the markets should continue to decline thru october 1st.

Best Wishes
Jay

Market holding

Cant seem to get capitulation

Is it still coming? yes, but when?

Dow got to 13,425, and spx to 1483 , a FLAT on the rebound if thats the end of the rebound wave
matching the highs on spt 4th, SO FAR - - -

Buying on this rebound has been on lighter volume , reflecting only a rebound.
Selling has been limited, but buying has been muted

Take a look, if you have it at the Charts Edge graph of Spt 1 to oct 19th.
It did show a high on spt 4th, and a low on the 7th to 10th.
then a rebound to now the 13/14th.
More important, it reflects a potential top on FED day- Spt18th, then a 2 day thud on 19th & 20th.

There is a huge open gap on the solar chart showing a possible selling spree on the 19th, and the 20th. HOw low is LOW?? Could be that we will see 100 spx points in 2 days, but that only speculation on my part.

Best Wishes
Jay

READY or NOT

The best chance for the market decline to continue occurs tomorrow and Friday into Monday

PC ratios are bearish

Look at a Chart of the dow on big charts and use the data for:
Ultimate oscilator -- dropping at close
OBV - dropping from mid day
MACD - blue line crossed over red, and the gap is getting larger.

Solar effects seem to be showing declines the next 2 days, and probably monday, but thats not clear yet.

How long are they going to ignore the dollar under 80

Yes, the FED will most likely lower the fed funds rate by .25, and the 18th with or without them calls for a winning day, and that means UP

BUT the rest of next week is hampered with some heavy duty negative influences, and could drag the dow down thru the 20, and or 21st, the 6 yr anniversary of the 9-11-2001 lows.

21st has some other short term cycles converging on that date also.

Some other very good technical analysts have suggested spx lows at 1330., while others are indicating 1220, and 1170. Take it for what it is, and dont bet on any of them.

whatever happens between now and october 9th will take the spx and dow to whatever level is major support BUT realize that most negative influences will be gone after Oct9th, and the market should start another strong moveup.

Best Wshes
Jay

9-11-2007

It still looks like 9-11-2007 will be a hard day on Wall st.

And it should continue to the 17th.

Even a rate cut by the Fed wont stop the cycle in play which probably wont stop until Spt 20th

Of course there will be some WILD swings, and that kind of volitility can be vary scary.

Im still planning to add short positions on Monday, and the open should run up at least 100 points in the first 15 minutes.

Best Wishes
Jay

I dont like using IF, but

If Friday provides a low, or I should say closes at a low,

then Monday should provide a moderate bounce

BUT Im still waiting for the 11th and 12th to offer some type of panic selling

Just how much and how bad?? Dont have any way to offer that info

Some people have posted some heavy duty numbers, but I cant be one of them.

So far, Its still sell the rumor, buy the news
it seemed they were buying the rumor until today??

RATE CUT?? a rumor, come Spt 18th it could be news, BUY IT, I will .
Best wishes
Jay

Spt 2007

Sptmber promises to be an eye openner.

The market over the past 5 years has spawned a larger number of new players who ahve not even see as much as a 3 % correction

SO why should this month be any different? I really cant answer that until it is over, but I can tell you that I personally am planning to be a short as possible on Spt 7th, and expect to close those positions on Spt 17th.

Best Wishes
Jay

minor sell signals

just as the close of Tuesday provided a number of buy signals
the close of today provides just the opposite
Here they are:

light volume
Arms index daily = .27 - havent seen that in a very long time
Up vol = 96% it was 93% down on Tuesday
Cboe PC ratio = .96 , and down from 1.30 day b4
oex PC ratio = .57 can be seen as a screaming sell
spx 500 PC ratio = 1.24 - has been holding ranges near 2.00 and up, so this one is bearish
These ratios are all indicating a lot of CALL BUYING.
the day's reading calls for loss of enthusiasm and stalled out.
Solar effect is down for tomorrow

However, Friday could be just the opposite again, but the bar count hits 180 at 11am on Friday, and there is numerous inflation data coming out at 8:30am. which might go against offering a rate cut. On the otehr hand Friday has a few other hidden asssets which might lend a hand in providing an upday. You can see why I keep vacilating about Friday.

Charts Edge 3 month charts so far seems quite accurate, and does show Friday as an upday.
I cant imagine why the weekly report contradicts the monthly charts, but the weekly shows Friday as a down day.

Jay

FELL OUT OF BED

Am I the only one who reads my blog.
The market fell out of bed on 8-28-07. DUH- how much more do you want?

According to the solar effects, theres still more selling to come this week.

I did sell my puts on the close today, that were bot last thursday for a 25% gain, even though I bot them a bit early in the game, 350 pts lost in 2 days made up more than what was needed.

I am planning to buy them back on any rally up till about 11am Tomorrow. And even if I am wrong, and the market closes higher for the day, it will be made up later in Spt. 10th to 12th.
IMO, It wouldnt be far fetched to see the dow at 12,800 by Friday.

Even reading the FED minutes from Aug 7th did nothing to stop the selling today.
SO, does the FED move the markets or does the market move the FED.??

Bernanke and company are hiding themselves in a fortress this Friday- whom are they hiding from? the big bad wolf?? is the wolf at the door?

Many are expecting his speech to move the market- BUT in which direction?

Jay

Ominous monetary events

Sptember has been the weakest month of the year in historic terms and more lows have ocurred in October than any other month of the year.

Tomorrow could appear to fall out of bed.

many newbies have traded the market for the last 5 years without as much as a 3 % correction, and even the Aug 15th hit recovered quite well. those newbies have reported never having lost money , and thats good, cause they are going to need lost of spare cash and much fortitude to withstand the next 45 days.

There seems to be some type of international monetary crisis brewing which unlike a possbile terrorist event which could be prevented or thwarted, a money event cannot be stopped, and it would appear it began in August, but hasnt really hit home yet.
Dollar crash?? maybe.
My timing calls for Spt 10 to 12th, with more fallout the week after

Jay

Are we there yet?

Where is THERE ?
A rebound HIGH ? very possible, and it got a little higher than the fibo relationships
13,400 is 62% of the 1500 point decline intraday
Friday's rally up on AIR.

Whats in store for sptmber??- See charts edge 4 week chart for gold-
matches closely my assesment.
Starting next week, I would agree with charts edge for Monday and especially Tuesday
however, the balance of the week Wed to Friday has an upward bias.

A low on the 4th mid day is expected to give way to an upward bias most of the week
till about mid day on Friday.

10th to 12th can be quite stressful, and it is 6yr anniv of 9-11, which by itself mean nothing unless someone gets off a sneak attack in the US. ???
another stress full day is 17th,
FED day should be quite positive, but this time the party wont last all week.
More later
Jay

GOT It

If you didnt buy in att the open, then it was wait all day to get in at 3:50pm

It was OBVIOUS from the OBV, MACD and Ult oscilator that a rally was brewing from the 1pm low.

in the 3 oclock hour they ran up to +10. and then backed of to -26, only to runup again to +6.66, now thats a nice number

anyway, I was able to grab some puts at a price that Was In the MIDDLE of the range as I had the buy in during the last itsy bitsy runup

The SETUP is there for a decent selling day tomorrow
the MACD blue line cut through the red line
Obv dropped
Ult osc dropped,
and price just barely made it to even.
SPX is indicating a dow lower by $11.36 on a scale of 8/1

Best Wishes
Jay

best made plan often go astray

Should have been shorting the open.

Noon gave us teh low of the day so far

I will be looking for a rebound in between the bar count to get short

expecting a fairly good sell off tomorrow.

Best bet, IF SHORT , will be to sell my short position on Friday by the close and go home flat.

Enjoy the wkend knowing I made some $$

Best Wishes

Jay

long winded

please accept my appologies if I have gotten too lengthy with my analysis.

Some people just want to know when to trade& what.

I have attempted to let you know when its time to make a trade, but I might have been remiss on that score of late.

So here it is short and sweet.
NOw is the time to get short AGAIN

I am planning to buy some puts at about NOON today, and they should be good till Aug 28th, but more on that later.

So far the dow has openned UP 55 pts in the first 10 minutes of trading
13,250 was mentioned as a dow target and now they are above that.
13,310 is the next critical level which is fibo 38.2 % of 460 pts abovve the lowest close on Aug 16th,
that would take the dow UP 74 points, and should provide strong resistence.

best Wishes
Jay

Corrective Wave

A major correction seems to be in progress from the July19th high of DOW14,000
but you knew that already, right?


Its now 9;45 and my 90 bar hit seems to be happenning a little late and it might continue to the 126 bar time zone at 12:30
Suppositions:
If there were 5 waves from July 19 to Aug 17th, that would be considered wave "A", and the fact that it took 5 waves means that was only the start of the correction, not the end of it.

Wv "B" already in progess could take the dow to 13,100 or 13,250 by Thursday at about noon.

From there , wave 1 of another 5 wv series would start and possibly close on 12,500 or near it by the 28th.
Corrections take the form of an Elliott 5-3-5 or " A" Down "B" up, then the horrendous "C" to the lows and it usually takes the form of 5 waves.

As previously mentioned, I am expecting a high on the 23rd, probably about noon, and from there a strong dip to the 28th. this might be considered wave 1 of 5 of "C"

Dow levels remain as previously written, but could be even worse.
one other scenario
1500 = 1/3 of the drop in wv "A"
WV "B' = 600 to 750 = 13,100 to 13,250
Wv "C" = 13,250 - 2400 = 10,850
Suppose wave "C" = 2/3 then it could take out as much as 3000 pts off the 13,250 = 10,250

IF 10K is to remain a FLOOR, then that math formula could work
remains to be seen
Best wishes
Jay

This Week

Ive complained about charts edge, but I think he may be close to this weeks action.

I was anticipating a 90 bar hit at the close Friday, but it didnt happen, thus we would then look to Monday's open, but that doesnt look like it will have any effect, but its only Sunday at 7pm as i write this.

ive also taken a look into Spt and October and heres what it looks like.
I dont do this based on maybe's an if's. there are a number of market analyses applied to my forecast.

the RANGE next week could open up to a 500 point swing an any given 2 days.
upper range fibo = 13,250
lower range 12,750
that action should carry us to the end of the month- Aug 27th is a Bradley TURN date, and its looking like a high within an intermedaite correction phase.

the intraday low spike to 12,500, an exact 10% move, and the first one in almost 5 years.
according to Erik Hadik, that move portends a 20% correction into Mid october.

Once Spt opens, we should see a dramatic continuation of the downtrend to the 19th, and or 20th in options week, same as in August. 2/3 rds of the 20% Decline = dow at 12,000
After a brief rally to the full moon on the 26th,
The Actual low should occur on oct 9th to 11th.
And 20 % would take the dow to 11,200

Hope this clears up a few things and gives us some perspective
best wishes to all
Jay

SHORT

from late friday

The question now becomes, DID the FED doo enuf?
Now my answer is " IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE !!"

The markets are forcing the players to react, but UNTIL the cycle is complete, dont expect any immediate reaction.
what about Friday ? You ask, the market responded to the Fed, right? NO it was the the Fed responding to the market. Friday would have happened no matter what. The CYCLE calls for a continuation of the correction till october or even November. but more on that later.

For NOw we have to deal with making money this week. last week's low hit -343 on the 16th at 180 bars, so you can see how important that knowledge.

most of you im sure go to charts edge, and lately they have been terrible- it becomes very misleading when they show you a chart and only one day is correct.
However, there long term 3 month chart seem to be ok.

Charts edge 3 month chart shows a low around the 15th, and up toward the end of August.
NOW, heres the rub.
WIll the market move UP like they show from the 15th to the end of the month, OR
Or will the correction continue and make lower nubers next 2 weeks??
Elliott wave has the appearance of a 3rd or 3rd right now, and thus any upside within that wave is extremely limited, but where is the end? 3rds are the longest and strongest, and they can extend in time rather than spike lower in a crash like move.

My anaylsis for next week looks like this:
DOWN on Monday and Tuesday. HOW LOW is LOW ??
UP on Wed to Friday AM
Friday Down to Tuesday the 28th.
then up till the 31st.

Best wishes this week
Jay

WILD gyrations

I missed that change today as I was OUT of the office, and didnt get back till too late

What will tomrrow bring?
maybe the rally that fizzled today

Twice up to 90, and that failed to hold

Tomorrow's solar energy seems to be calling for an up.

Will OE bring in a short squeeze?
Supposed to be a lucky 2 days, but for whom. the bulls or the bears?

Im a little out of sync right now- maybe better in the AM
Market came off its lows at the close, and the spx futures seemed to move up also, but still -525
Some of my associates show the BERG indicator UP tomorrow, and seasonal spx was supposed to hit a low on the 8th
Bradley shows a rebond about now on both the geo, and helio charts.
Ive still got a major hit set up from the 23rd to 30th.
Best wishes