OPENS down

When 90 bars hits at or near a close, it usually hits at the open the next day and today was no exception.

Today also has 126 bars at 12:30

adding 30 bars = 3pm, which may or may not have any effect

However, that leaves 180 bars at 10:30 on Wed
I was expecting WEd to open UP, but it will probably be very short lived rally, and the downtrend should continue thru the 3rd.

126 bars hits at 10AM on Friday AM, which in this case I suspect the actual low at 120 bars or a truncated 126 at 4pm on WED

The JOBS report on friday at 8:30am will probably propel the market higher, and at this point, I dont have a definitive read on the whole day yet.

BUT Monday Jan 7thy does have the look of making a trading low with a rebound to follow thrut he 11th.

Best Wishes
Jay

Christmas rally is over

Some of my work indicates the rallies are done till at least the morning of jan 4th, and possibly the 7th.

Could be down to spx1400 again or this time to spx1370

today had 30 bars low at 11am- yes
60 bars low at 1;30pm
NOw heres the tricky part.
90 bars hits at 4pm, OR it could wait for Monday's open.
Jay

Polarity

Im sure you can tell by the futures there will be an up open today and Polarity confirms an UPDAY
As I previously wrote for Friday Dec 28th.

Best Wishes
Jay

I cant believe the Media thinks Yesterdays decline was base on an assassination in another country no less.
Yes, I can grieve for the loss personally, but the market does not care about personal feelings. Its about time someone gave the media a tongue lashing concerning NEWS and market direction. News does NOT make the market. What comes first the chicken or the egg ?
And they are still talking about it today as if the market would drop if some one else got hurt???

January 2008

Heres my dates for jan 2008

Dec 27th in progress at 1pm the dow is - 158
there is 180 bars at 1pm, and 204 at 3pm.

Dec 28th is an upday
Dec 31st should close lower after a positive start
Jan 2nd and 3rd look substantially DOWN

Jan 4th = up
Jan7th might be an off day
however, from here to the 11th looks UP

It is possible Jan could start to deteriorate from the 14th to the 23rd and or 28th before turning up to greet the eclispe of Feb 6th as that looks like a powerful harmonic cluster.

Best Wishes
Jay

Proprietary data

As some of you already know, I keep track of Arms data daily.

With that I have devised my own indeces for which I have 4 to5 yrs of daily data

Yesterday I experimented with turning it into a precentage by simply dividing adv/decl by the vol ratio, and got fascinating results.
The ratio resulted in highs of 1.20% to a low at .04%

In yr 2007:
Feb = 1.09% at dow 12550
March 7th = .41% at dow 12192

May = .99 @13363
June 7-12= .44% @ dow 13295
But more important the index = 101% on June19th @ 14000

On 9/17 it dropped to .04% as the dow hit 13,400
BUT again more inportant hit 111% at dow 14,000 on oct 10th.

Nov 12 = .39%
Nov 20 = 1.12%
Dec4 = .38%
NOw near 100% indicating a HIGH in the making

Ive also turned the daily JAYWIZ INDEX into a 10 day ave, now that I have enuf data.
yesterdays daily index = 33, and when computed , the 10day ave is now@ 38.7
Not a raging SELL, but no where near a buy which would have to be well above 60.

I previously noted the POLARITY indicator did DROP dramatically at 5am today or was at least update to show it that way. I did notice late yesterday that the magnometer started to decline after market hours so that change was not unexpected to me at least, and it was a great confirmation to watch that happen.

Best Wishes
Jay

SELL off in 1st qtr

Some of my associates on another site are indicating a sell off in the 1st qtr of 2008.

Mar22 has been indicated with some interest as important

Feb 6th eclipse is 8 yrs after the Feb 5th eclipse of 2000

Polarity dropped at 1200 UTC time which as best I can determine was 4 hours ago at 5am.

And the spoos are showing a sell off at the open.

I was under the impression, that a sell off this week would setup a rally in the first week thru jan7th, but that doesnt seem to fit as we are making rebound highs this week.

Jan 14th seems to be a cluster of 22 and 44 wk cycles as presented by another anaylyst.
March 22 is an Armstrong cycle hit, and is being presented as a low.

I dont know, and dont think I would buy todays low as there would only be 2 days into the 31st for a rebound; It could be a spike high/top.

Best Wishes
Jay

Polarity

Polarity is the value of positive or negative ions from the sun reaching the earth.


Yesterday's dip in the polarity did not last long as it ran back up on the 26th.

Usually in astro, one looks for conjunctions to be positive and oppositions to be negative, but depending on when and where they occur, it could be opposite, as it was in Dec

Dec 11th had the first clue when the dow fell 300 pts
The next week was held down by multiple conjunctions

The suspected lows due this week were circumvented by the oppositions which showed teh dow as a high for teh day today at 3pm.

The 27th is due for a cycle low, and there is a gap in the energy levels as I reported data last week.
Tomorrows levels are in the 300 range, quite low as a high range is 600 to 800, and lows are under 400.

If all goes accordingly, we should see a fairly hard sell off tomorrow, but the 28th looks positive AND Jan 2nd hold the key to end the rally as Mars is 180 pluto at 4:25pm

CAUTION flag is out-- There are some who are calling Jan as a declining month thru at least the 15th, and maybe till the end of the month. I'm still waiting more data.

take a look at the charts and graphs on WCA, if you can figure them out.

Best Wishes
Jay

new discovery

Just when you think youve got it all, something ive been ignoring just popped up as maybe very important

Polarity shows me some very intersting market movement

Oct 10 to oct 20, polarity was negative- mkt low on 19th
Oct 20 to oct 31 polarity was positive mkt high on 31st
and so forth

NOw it shows polarity fell yesterday sharply, and maybe if the market has been open all day it might have had some effect, but for now we wait for the 26th,27th.

polarity shows its overall effects are STILL positive thru the 30th then there's an overlap thru the 31st, so a sharp rebound as inticipated by other means should still be working

A similar overlap ocurred 12/6 to 12/10, then fell on 12/11 and stayed low till 12/17 to conform with a negative polarity

Best Wishes
Happy New year
Jay

Proprietary data

My proprietary systems provide certain data which I will share with you, but not where it comes from.



My adv/decl ratio & volume ratio are derived from the daily arms index
Monday's data = 236 & 228
Tuesday =397& 401
Wed = 345 & 356

Note: Historical data goes back 4 years

UNDER 400 = BUY signal3 days in a row and we got Friday's rally
Friday's values = 688 & 914 comfortably above 400

friday = Winter solstice & Bradley pivot date



5 days arms index Friday = 88.8 a sell signal down from 137.8, a buy from the 14th
5 day trin = 444, a sell signal , down from 6.89


Midnite low tide and full moon High tonight Dec 23rd.



Jaywiz index

Monday= 38
38 neutral
38
84 buy
33 neutral
29 borders on sell



Daily lunar index = - 5 on Dec 28th, lowest value in 30 day series 5 days after full moon
5- 10 - 20 wk cycles clustering next week.


Specific gravity energy levels

Dec 17 = 350
18 = 700
19 = 550
20 = 650
21 =700
Dec24 = 500
25 = 400
26 = 300
Dec27 = 300

Dec28th changes up to 500
thats as far out as it can be recorded

Major celestial event of early 2008 is the Feb 6th eclipse which should find the spx trading near 1600.

But for now we see a short term dip next week
making the 28th a BUY date,
with CIT dates :
Jan 2 hi
3rd down
11th High
15th low
24th high
29th off day
Feb 6th peak

Best Wishes

Jay

BULLETIN

NEW update indicates today and tomorrow as a HIGH
and change in trend to a serious sell off next week
Bradley date is Dec 22nd
After today's closing high, tomorrow should just float along

NYSE - Monday closing at 1pm

Serious selling should hit the market next week possibly ending on the 27th

28th opens a positive window of opportunity

Best Wishes

Rally time ?

the numbers seem to be pointing toward a rally tomorrow as previously indicated

Vol ratio = 345, now under 400 for 3 days in a row
Adv/Decl ratio = 356 Ditto

Jaywiz Index = 84 WOW thats a BUY
was under 30 all last week and had 2 last days at 38 level

180 bars hit at 11:30
204 bars hit at 1:30

Jupiter goes 0 Capricorn tomorrow
Winter Solstice on 21st
Best Wises
Jay


Gold / Xau ratio at a short term high = 4.98 indicating a SELL OFF

You wont want to miss this graph

www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

fascinating

Jay

Illusive rally?

OK, Now that Dec 17th is over where is that rally you promised?

Heres some things I'm looking at, and they are telling me to look for a strong rally the next 2 days, including financials. Typically a 40 pt SPX move = 300 dow points.
That would take the SPX back up to resistance at 1490 area.

reading for today = energies dissipate- they sure did that
Better later, and so far it looks like the noon to 1pm lows at 126 bars may have done the job, but its only 2pm as I write this.

Magnetic energy pattern indicates a higher day today, but more important, a much higher run the next 2 days.

That projection is also supported by my tech data
MY Vol ratio = 236
My adv/Decl ratio = 228
both are well under the 400 threshold that indicates a rally is about to happen.
5 day ARMS = 137.5= bullish
5 day trin = 689 = bullish
10 trin day = 1122 = bullish
8 day IAN cycle may have hit also at noon
10 day Curry cycle today
My Jaywiz index was a 43 yesterday and is neutral, but does indicate a change.
Still working off the 9 months cycle low
Seasonality for second half of Dec is UP.

Anyway, the energy for the next 2 days runs HIGH with Merc 0 Pluto
Merc 0 jupiter & Sun 0 Pluto on Thursday, after which thing might spin out of control.
And we might just see a repeat of Dec 11th on the 21st and the 24th which are both harboring negative energy.

I will add to this If I think of anything else.

Best Wishes
Jay

Cycle Low ??

other technicians have mentioned this
Friday,and or today is 9 months from March 14th low in a continuous 9 month cycle

1444 spx was also posted as important

Seasonality shows a rally from about here

Energy patterns show a rally starting tomorrow and continuing at least thru Wed, and might drop off little later this week.

Rimm, google and bidu all took large hits today, Finally.


Best Wishes
Jay

Monday's indications

Monday's projections are coming in with mixed signals
I have PREVIOUSLY indicated a roller coster ride for Monday
If they open strongly till about 10:27 am , then the roller coaster ride could take it lower for the day.

If they open weak, then it might be considered a buy opp.

However, I do agree with charts edge about the balance of the week going up, and that has been already projected prior to seeing their charts.

I am also in agreement as previously indicated with a Jan 2nd high, and Jan 7th low with a rising trend
from there to the end of of jan 2008.
Possible minor interruptions on the 14th and 15th on the way up.

Best Wishes
Jay

Change in trend

That Un named index I have been recording will now be called the

"Jaywiz index"
Friday = .43- indicates neutral, and possible change of direction

Jaywiz index history last week
Thursday = .26
Wed= .20
Tues = .29
Mon = .19
All were decidedly bearish

However, Alone, the Jaywiz Index does not guarantee a rally

Energy patterns for Monday do show a possible battle between the bull and bears
WE should get a large opening rally followed by fall back, and hopefully a closing rally leading to further gains on Tuesday and Wed.
Tuesday could start out reverse of Monday with an opening decline, but up later into the weeks high on Wed.

Declines are expected on 21/24, but a year end rally on 26th to Jan 2nd should close out the year strong for the bulls

Jan 2008 is expected to start out weak from the 2nd to the 7th, but should rally from there to month's end.

Nothing dramatic is anticipated for 2008.
Mostly higher to at least spx1600, and possibly even 1699
The Low of the year is not expected till Early Nov.

Best Wishes,
Jay

Lower lows

Markets were called lower into Dec 14th ,Friday, and the open hit at 180 bars for an open low, and 259 bars at the close, also a bar cycle LOW point.

Did not break under 1460 spx, but did break one support level of 13,327

Pressure readings for next week indicate and UP week
and dont forget its options next week.

Monday should open UP with a THRUST, but could turn into a roller coaster ride.

Continues higher thru Wed or Thursday at the latest before turning down on the 21st and 24th

Best Wishes
Jay

LOWER again

Wild ride Tuesday and Wed - but you already knew that

I was nervous about holding onto my puts, banks and financials, but the premarket trading indicates them lower & the spx futures.

That un- named ratio scored another bearish .20 yesterday and thus the downtrend confirmed.

Lower lows on Thursday and Friday

Rocket rebound on Monday DEc17th into Tuesday ,18th of next week.

Decline should resume on WEd Dec 19th and hit a trading low on the 24th.

Rocket rally on 26th to jan 7th.

Best Wishes
Jay

I hope I didnt lose many of you over the past few months.
I think Im back on track
Let me kknow If ive been helpful.- send me an email

Rate cut

The expected .50 bp rate cut did not materialize, and thus the 2pm bar count @ 204 turned in a CHANGE rather then a low.
Also the Jupiter 0 Pluto that seems to have been the driving force for the dow advance last week ocurred at the same moment.

Today's open as indicated by the futures should explode up at least 100 dow points or more, BUT do beware, IT wont last long.

Energy patterns show an open rally should falter and drop to a Friday low.

It would NOW appear the trend is biased lower thru the 24th and then the yr end rally lasting to about Jan 10th.

Best Wishes
Jay

Fed Day

Cycles still call for a higher high today and tomorrow;

Dec 13 & 14 should take some away

Dec17th showing me another rally day;

From there, as I wrote b4, it should get sloppy and choppy with a down bias thru the 24th, then a yr end rally.

Jay

cycles

We seem to be locked into an 8 day or 52 hour cycle;
Oct9
oct19
oct31
nov12
nov 26 was 9 days due to the 1/2 day on the 23rd.
Dec 6th
Dec 18
Dec 31
jan11- 2008
jan 23
Any one catch Charles Nenner interview on CNBC;
I have claimed many times, the markets are NOT controlled by the news, and yet there are so many newcomers in the last 5 years who swear by the newsmaking the market- WELL a rally or decline would have ocurred anyway with or without the news, and thus a .50 bp rate cut will give the players a reason to see a rally, its not what actually made teh rally happen, IT WOULD HAVE HAPPENNED ANYWAY.

When the market goes UP 300 points, everyone goes home happy nd doesnt question why.
when the mkt drops 300 pts, EVERYONE want to know WHY, WHY WHY.

OK, enuf preaching, lets move on.
Jupiter 0 Pluto is a very powerful force indicating a rare transformation.
Dec 17 has MERC 0 Sun and should top out the market thru xmas.
Year end rally should carry till Jan 2nd and maybe reach a secondary high on the 11th before treading water till months end.
according to Nenner, Feb and March could be 10% to 15% DOWN again.
He also mentioned multiple 10% swings next year.

I have found a PC ratio that does seem very sensitive to identify when a rally is going to occur.
It appears the LOWER the ratio, the higher the chance for a decline the next day, and vice versa.
I only have a few weeks data, so more study is required.

Monday and Tuesday have been called for unusual downside bias by one associate uisng his propietary methods and he has been 80% accurate with his calls.

I guess the mrkt wants to shake out the weak players before running it up the flagpole to the 18th.

best wishes
Jay

December dates

Dec 3rd should start down, and if not them the 4th for sure.

the 5th and most especially the 6th should be quite bearish


After an UP open on the 10th we can expect the balance of the day and most of the 11th to be lower.

From there a high on the 18th could stop for a couple days, and will probably get choppy and sideways till year end.

Still expecting a very strong surge from the 11th to 19th.

Best Wishes
Jay