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Jay

Heres what Ive been talking about for weeks

Jay

heres another view

Looks Even worse from this view

If 750 is the MAKE OR BREAK

then 1/2 of that is 375 and dow 4000 at some point
Ive got 2011

BUT in the MEAN times we might see a 50% level at 590
which has been mentioned b4

That puts a picture to the words

More Later
Jay

In case you didnt notice this

NOT a PRETTY picture at all

Final target could be dow 4000 in 20111

but for now it looks like 6000 might hold in June

more later
Jay

BACK on TRACK

got some errands to do

BOT in at 11am

Low hit -140 at 9;45am
Rebounded to -45 @ 11am
then turned down on the 11am HOURLY turn

Jerry R has mentioned 704 many times but we might look for 699
just to give an added scare -- AHAH

I mentioned it b4 and again NOW
MONDAY has a 13 day CYCLE completion at
10:30 along with a couple of lunar squares with merc & Mars
Also got 120 bars @ 11am

spx 700 would take the dow to 6700
thats getting scary
WHY/
because I still have Mid June on my radar screen for
a MORE important and LOWER low
HOW LOW, you ask, I cant answer that just yet
BUT -Ive seen spx estimates at 590
that would take the dow to just under 6000

More heads will roll on Wall Street with that one

The BEST part of that June low is a possible DOUBLING within
9 months following to dow 12,000
WE WILL MAKE A TON of $$ on that one

Hourly turns still as USUAL
1pm
3pm

WHEN to BUY puts

As I mentioned yesterday , Im buying puts on each rally

its called scale trading

Monday has the 13 day cycle completion at
10;30am along with a couple of lunar squares with mars & mercury

SPX 704 could be closer than we think

Today STILL has a TURN LOWER at 1pm most likely
IF not then 3pm is next turn as mentioned yesterday.

Its now 10;45 & dow is off 75, about 505 better than the open

The only thing I didnt take into account mid day
YESTERDAY was a much lower open
However, it was somewhat obvious if you looked at the OBV , and
MACD at yesterday's CLOSE

Bradley probably hit yesterday at spx 780

More Later
Jay

that certainly was premature

GDP now out &

openning looks very weak, thus I will have to short any rebound at 11am


Looks like 780 spx yesterday was the Bradley TURN
after all it is + or - a day

Jay

RALLY OPEN - BUT

I will be SHORTING or buying puts on the OPEN rally

the SPOOS FUTURES are - -9.80 at 8am
but the GDP report is not out yet

activity index and Flux index show a STRONG OPEN

I will not be waiting till 3pm

Above chart shows MICRO 5 has BEGUN

todays open rally is just a nino wave 2

More later
Jay

Friday Feb 27th

My proprietary indexes are reading SELL
Date--Ad ratio -Vol ratio --- 5 day arms---5day A/D ave--5 day vol ave--TRIn5-----trin 10
2/23------- 206 ------195------ 212--------41------------39--------506-----1511 = BUY
2/26 -------797-------1531------ 88---------159----------306-------392-------997 = SELL

Once more, tomrrow is a Bradley date and could offer a high for the week
BUT it wont make it thru the day according to the propensity gauge which
starts out at 3017, RUNS up to 3023, then takes a dive to 3016 and might
even be lower as it progresses during the night.

The SAME or similar events took place on the 25th
it started at 3014, ran up to 3020, then fell to 3008
the mkt opened lower -190
then spent all day recovering and topping at 3:15pm @+45 dow
then fell to -80 as previously indicated by the propensity index.

the ACTIVITY of the Dow on the 25th was the exact opposite of today.

The POWER index for tomrrow indicates a potential to open little lower
then spend all day in recovery mode till 3;04pm where
there is a Moon 60 Jupiter

remember the 25th~ there was a moon 30 mars at 3:16 just as the dow hit +45
on wed.then fell to -80 inthe LAST 45 minutes

I suppose ONE of the best way t handle buying puts tomrrow is possibly
to SCALE TRADE - in other words, add more on each rally

Other than that, I will look for the hourly high with the Mars 45 pluto
at 1pm, and then 3 pm as above

The Bar cycles are
30B @ 10am - could be the Low of the AM
60b @ 12;30
90b @ 3pm

these seem to be in conflict with the hourly
however, using the 25th as an example
10am was the low
turned UP at 11am
turned Up at 1pm
turned up at 3pm & topped at 3;16

We could have a very similar day tomrrow

Thats consistent with the bradely index offering the High of the week
or at least a match to spx 780- ONE MORE TIME, baby <>
that wouldd give the Micro 4th the form of an A B C D E F

I will be watching the activity and dynamic index to identify micro moves
during the day

ONE THING I KNOW FOR CERTAIN - the last hour will DECLINE
And Monday will CONTINUE the drop
I guess I shouldnt write that as NOTHING is for certain other than you know what.

More Later

Jay

Another PIC -

OK This shows that LAST hurrah
There was ONE MORE leg Up which came today at 11am
and ONE MORE TOMORRW till 1pm
THEN the start of MICRO 5
THANKS to Ibo who is signed in as a FOLLOWER
Many thanks to those who have signed in,
and to those who intend to do so

Activity index was hard to follow today
too many small blips
same for dynamic index also
In other words there was NO CLEAR direction from those data feeds
some days are just not as clear as others -
so what else is new{{G}}

WHAT IS CLEAR THE NEXT WAVE IS HEADED LOWER to SPX 704
And it will be seen on MARCH 10th

More later
Jay

PICTURES

one more

Jay

PICTURES

Another VIEW

Jay

PICTURES

Wave 5 about to START
If not today then TOMRROW afternoon for sure

Jay

STill on track today

Got the
open high made it to 10:50am
11am hourly TURN DOWN RIGHT ON SCHEDULE
Now its 12;30 and they are DIVING
now only up 20pts

The NEXT important time slot
is as reported 258bars @ 2pm

NOTE :: NOT OFTEN AT ALL , BUT
SOMETIMES the 258 bar cycle starts the NEXT cycle LOWER
Now the KEY here is the 258 bars
ENDS one cycle and USUALLY allows the mkt
to rebound from there as it did until 2;30

So we have to be VERY aware of what level
we get to at 2pm


Also NOTE that GOLD BOTTOMEd at 10;45 exactly
at the Dow high
and is now moving back up in lock step
inverse to stocks

More Later
Jay

OK its NOW MORE later time
ITS NOW 3;40pm and they appear to be recovering from the
3:00 to 3:15 pm LOW
off now only 37pts

The 258 bar cycle on occasion ALSO extends 12 bars
or one hour beyond its normal ending such as today

POWER INDEX for tomorrow peaks MID DAY at the 600 level
keep in mind those levels start at 250 and get as high as 800
so 600 is quite a bit up there

NoW no more {G}
Jay

SO far SO good

We got the Obligatory rally of 100 dow points
at 10am
11am should offer the TURN lower to
the 228 bar cycle at 11;30am

In case you want more info about BAR cycles
Scroll back though the archives to find an
explanation that I wrote b4

10;30, DOW now back up 103 again
adding more puts on each rally

GOLD got away from me as I sold my puts yesterday
I will re buy them on any rebound, which may not come at all
any decline in the dow should offer a rebound in
gold as they are trading inverse to each other

So be it

more later
Jay

Holding pattern

Next 2 days we are in a HOLDING Pattern
Micro wave 4 seem to be extending into
Friday Feb 27th, A Bradley date

Im later than I wanted to be this AM -
family issues took precedence

Its NOW 9;15am & futures are pointing toward a higher open
Because 204bars HIT at 4pm, at the close, then it offers the
market an OPPORTUNITY to REBOUND this am

Maximum Spx 780 to 790

For DAY TRADERS -Any OPEN rally could be Shorted
228 BARS LOW is now @ 11:30am
258Bars LOW @ 2pm
SO today we have
UP- DOWN - Up at close

Hourly today
9:45 to 10am might offer the HOD
11- 1 pm 3 pm
same as usual


Tomrrow is a BRADLEY TURN as mentioned 4
Should offer a HIGH at 1pm
Mars 45 pluto @ 12;50pm
That could turn out to be as good a short as
Nov 13th high which led to the Nov 20th LOW

THIS TIME its A MARCH 10th LOW
that is ON the RADAR screen

I did well with GLD puts and will try again
to rebuy those puts at a lower price
On the $50 gold drop- the put went from $2.28 to 3.83

Gold appears to be running opposite to equities

yesterday we got that 3;16 HOD
Moon 30 Mars right at the moment
And the 3pm hourly turned UP on schedule
also
11 am & 1pm BOTH turned UP

more later
Jay

oops

OK, They didnt even wait for tomrrow

looks like 204 bars hit at close today

As previously mentioned a few times
Tommorrow does NOT look like it will repeat today
has negative astro energy, and should be a DOWN DAY ALL DAY

Friday is a BRADLEY date and it looks like it could recover from Thursday


THE MICRO wave 4 might have completed today at 3;16pm
thus we have to think in terms of WAVE 5 which might
have started today at 3;16pm, after the HOD

Also as mentioned several times
March 10th has the potential to
be the LOW of that 5th wave
and the SPX could get to 704
thats almost 80- pts from today's HOD
= to 650 dow points thus putting that index at 6750

What do you think the talkers are CNBC are going to say
about Obama's programs
Thats RIGHT, you guessed it

**********ITS NOT WORKING******

You must realize, EVEN if THEY DONT --
CNBC comments are turning out to be worse for the
market than the previous admin blunders

I guess they NEED someone to blame for their
OWN STUPIDITY

anyway back to the market, now that ive let out a little steam

AFTER MARCH 10th we should see a substantial rally till
at least the end of the month , but there appears to be MORE
devastation to come

and Ive mentioned June13th several times also
How low is LOW??
Doesnt really matter right now-
I dont want to get to far ahead,
but I do want you to realize
that 60 year cycle LOW from 1949 didnt go away

I put that chart up a while ago, and will post it again
shortly as a reminder

More Later
Jay

WHATS next

its 2pm
TODAY so far
144 bars LOW at 10:45
184 bars at 2:15
bar counts are not what is normally expected
BUT
still falling into zones CLOSE to where they should be

Hourly
11am TURNED Up
Anyone get hungry?, I did
1pm TURNED UP
got hungry again ~~ anyone else get hungry??

78.6%/13 day cycle was due at 11:45
we had lows at 10:45 & 12:45
HMmmm???

GOLD STILL falling and should continue to get to $900
by March 6th

IMPORTANT cycle
204 BARS at either 4pm OR open
How does that work? you ask

IF we close at or near previous highs TODAY
then the Market should open STRAIGHT DOWN with a BANG

Astro wise
soft aspect @3;16 pm Moon 30 Mars
After hours is also SOFT with Merc 60 Venus

I Ate something, but Im still hungry- hmmm

the above was written at 2:41pm on my email

Now heres the REST OF THE STORY

3;16 GOT the HOD, so far as indicated above
IF the CLOSE is HIGHER or NOT - just a simple idea

SHORT THE CLOSE
ITs now 3;45
Power index dropping
Activity index dropping
Dynamic index now dropping
Main Gauge DROPS hard

26th -OPEN should be A straight LINE DOWN
More later
Jay

Register as FOLLOWER

My deep thanks to those who registered as a follower

I know there are lots more of you out there who read me almost daily and
I would really like to know you are there.
ge aware - I have no plans to make this blog a subscription only site.

Ravi has corrected my math and it looks like 790 is first micro wave 4 target
maybe before noon today, then it looks like selling into tomrrow

BUT friday still has potential to make it to spx802

From there, It looks like March 10th holds the next lower level
for major major support at spx 704

that would take the Dow to 6500 area

More later

Jay

Math & More

Feb 9th spx = 870
feb 23 spx = 743

Difference = 127

127 X 38.2% = 48 pts = spx 791
50% = 807
625 = 822
dare i go to 78% = 842, never happen

Like I wrote
3 legs
tomorrow at 9:45 and or 11am at the latest should complete wave"a"
should make it to 790 and thats 18 pts higher than today @ 773 = 150 dow
then wave "b" as the day fades into selling to complete that leg on the 26th

BUT then theres the 27th and it might look like a run for the roses
IF they can get over 790, then 807 would be a logical target,
but I doubt anything higher could be achieved.

That ends MICRO wave 4
and March 2nd starts micro wave 5

Heres another interesting tid bit of info:

TONIGHTS NEW MOON the Pres
8:30pm & the reading says
Inspiration, compassion,
Coax a private DREAM to grow
DUH, his speech tonight falls right into place
Jay

This WEEK"S GAME PLAN

IT took 32 tr days to get to FEB 23rd from the Jan 6th high

Very typical time frame, but why?

32 / 4 = 8 segments of 4 tr days
Next trade day segment is the 27th which SHOULD be a HIGH

THEN add 4 more = March 5th which reads for a LOW

Lastly is March 11th, maybe at the OPEN, but I think its the
CLOSE of the 10th for a MAJOR MAJOR LOW

more later
Jay

GOLD

GOLD ran up to 1000 last week
the wave is labeled as a "B" wave or even an "X"
which is an intervening high
that means the NEXT most important level
should be under that previous low @ $712 on Oct 10th
Oct 10th was one major low also for the DOW
that took 4 months to get back to 1000
BUT it took 8.6 months to get from the FIRST 1000 to oct10th low
SO, NOW the trend should be DOWN for the next 8.6 months

Jay

whats a traders delight ?

SELL ALL RALLIES

im still expecting a rally high on Tuesday, and maybe open on WEdnesday

BUT

the 25th and 26th are expected to sell off

I previously mentioned March 10th several times for an important LOW
THAT MEANS
from here to March 10th, the trend is still DOWN

so SELL any rallies
Such as the close of Feb24th ~~~~~ expect DOWN on 25 & 26
close of Feb 27th ~~~~~~~~expect lower on March 2nd
Close of March 3rd~~~~~~~expect down on March 4th & 5th
Close of march 6th ~~~~~ expect climactic selling on 9th & 10th

I dont know how to make it any clearer than that

Of course, its NEVER just that easy, but at least this offers a guide

More later
Jay

This WEEK"S GAME PLAN

REBOUND AT HAND

Yes a rebound this week, but it WONT be that easy

IT should take the from of 3 legs

High on 24th @ Merc 0 Jupiter, new moon & Jupiter II Pluto

DIVE on 25th & 26th

Rebound to peak on 27th = Bradley date

Simple but complex at the same time

More Later
Jay

WHERE now Brown Cow ??

THE MAIN trend is DOWN

HOW DOWN? you ask, Good question, thanks for asking

According to ONE very astute Elliottician we can expect the SPX to drop to 704,
and IMO< that should be on a closing basis

That same person has also indicated March 10th as a MULTI Month cycle LOW

SO< now we have March 10th at 704 SPX

________________________________________________
NOTE THE FOLLOWING
ASTRO AGREES with the ABOVE date

IS THAT the END of it ?? you ask, gee another good question
NOT IMO

As mentioned b4, June 13th holds out the potential for a MULTI YEAR LOW

Lets not get too far off the beaten track, but a 9 month rally to March 2010 is very possible
___________________________________________________

OK, now back to the present
From here to March 10th can get CRAZY with MANY daily changes

IF you are an investor- get into Money mkt and stay till June13th
IF you are a trader - STAY TUNED right here for daily UPDATES

more later
Jay

Editorial NOTE

I HATE THE MEDIA !!!

Fox news commentary this Sat AM

Those people are LIVING in a FOG

even the most astute are WAY OFF BASE

can you imagine - Fox news ??
BLAMING LAST WEEK's market decline on the ADMINISTRATION
STUPID STUPID STUPID

and this outcry is NOT in response to FOX's over abundance of Republican views, but you cant help but hear it in their tone

I dont know WHY I bother listening to them at all

Maybe IF I complain LOUD enuf, I will be invited to the White House also {gg}

BUSH admin gave $350 B tot he banks and they horded it or bot other banks
Didnt anyone tell them they were supposed to make loans with it?

Now were bailing out TRUE underwater home owners - NOT speculators
I lived thru 1982 and got out of a bad situation on my own, & Now
I own my Condo and make additional payments to end it early.

& YES, I have NO compassion for those who BOT on SPEC to FLIP homes
they got caught in the NOOSE and I dont feel bad for them losing those
homes & their good credit.

On another note
As bad as the mkt is, I still cant understand why mutual fund holders dont convert to money market to at least presevere the capital, even tho its at much lower levels than it was last year. I really do KNOW why-
they are caught in the SLOPE OF HOPE

more later
Jay

Elliott wave counting

Jan 5th high
SPX (i) 943.85 to 804.30 -139.55 =Jan 20 low
(ii) 804.3 to 875.01 70.71 50.7% Jan 28th
(iii) i 875.01 to 754.25 -120.76 ****** WAS THIS LAST WEEK - Feb 20 @ 1:20pm
ii 754.25 800.38 46.13032 38.2% ***NEXT WEEK - some are projecting 850spx
iii 800.38 to604.99 -195.38968 1.618 ^^^^ March 10th
iv 604.99 to 725.74 =120.75 61.8% ^^^^^^^^END OF MARCH
v 725.74 to 604.98 v=i -270.03
(iv) 604.98 to 771.86 61.80%
(v) 771.86 - 632.31
MAJOR LOWS on June13th at spx 600
Some others are considering a LOW of 572 to 580.
I like this scenario
I would make a slight change in the labelling but it still
comes out the same in the end

This is From Ravi Metre on Crystal ball group
More later
Jay

NDX

WHEN the NDX gets to 950 as it did in Oct 2002

THEN you will have a REAL BOTTOM

See the previous chart showing the 60 year LOW due on June13th 2009

Jay

GOLD

READY TO TUMBLE

Jay

WHAT MOVES THE MARKET ?

CHICKEN or EGG

does NEWS made by MAN move the market ?
OR
Does the MARKET make MAN to make his MOVE ?

Yesterdays NEW DOW low has NOT produced an S&P new low, not yet anyway

However, as I wrote b4

I sold out puts yesterday at 3;35pm
the mkt ran up and fell again

NOW looking at 156 bars at open as the LOW at 9:40 am to maybe 10am

180 bars with 55%/13 day at 11;30 is secondary BUY zone

A GOOD SCARY open, IMO, is a BUY

Yesterdays close
MY PROPRIETARY indexes ISSUED a BUY
internal data
ADV decl ratio = 308
VOl ratio= 270
BOTH WELL UNDER 400 threshold

5 day ARMS = 212.6 = huge buy signal
5 day trin = 106.3 = strong buy
10 day = 146.8 = moderate buy

ALL are SHORT TERM signals

Yesterday was 8day LOW
Today is 8 day TURN

POWER INDEX hit lows at 350 yesterday and today they jump up to 600 and
they hold those levels thru Tuesday - new moon high
Feb9th was full moon high

Some are talking Nationalizing the some banks this wkend?
WALL St needs NEWS - thus my opening statment

More later
Jay

Feb19 & 20

OK, we GOT EXACTLY what the the daily cycles called for
Tmorrow is 22 tr days from Jan 20-
in case you cant count- thats 2 X 11
Jan 20 - FEb 4 - Feb 20

Besides that
Today hit the HIGH and LOW notes right on CUE
Highs
9:44 - 11:15 & TURNED DOWN
1pm - minor high and low within minutes of each other
3pm an IMPORTANT high

LOWS
90bars @ 10:30
120Bars @ 1pm
150 bars @ 3;40, a few minutes late - sched for 3;30

NOW heres where it leaves us
since 3;40 was a LOW at 150 bars we were wondering
how 156 bars was going to play out
AND GUESS WHAT I STILL DO have a question about tomrrow's open

THE BEST part of today was I bot puts at 10:15
and sold at 3;35, so the day treated me well

WHAT ABOUT TOMORROW ? You ask- good question

IF Friday open LOWER, then its a BUY at 156 BARS
at 9:40am

If it opens higher, then its a LOW at 11;29 @ 55%/13 day
and matching 180 bars

more later
Jay

whip saw

As usuall

9;44am OPEN higher

10:05 TURNED LOWER

11;15 hourly TURNED LOWER
1pm hourly
3pm ""

2pm = 50%/13 day cycle low
126bars @ 1:30
156bars @ 4pm


IF 4pm closes on the LOW, then I might be buying calls for a VERY strong OPEN
OR
If 4pm does NOT close on the LOD
then the OPEN might be lower

TODAY is an 8DAY LOW
TOMRROW is an 8 DAY turn

TOmrrow also has a 55%/13day @ 11;29,
which might offer a setback to any higher open
BUT tomrrow should CLOSE higher and continue
to hold its gains thru The 24th NEW MOON

Bradley date is 26th , and should be the high of next week,
but do expect to get whipped some more

very tricky to make $$ in this kind of market

I bot puts at 10;15, and added more just b4 the big drop-
I was really surprised they gave me my offer

Will be selling them at 4pm

Jay

Feb 19

looks like spx 755 today at 2pm and or 4pm

Rally tomrrow into Monday

Holds thru the new moon on Tuesday


Im planning to buy puts on any rebound to 9:45 or 10am;
I will add more if higher or equal at 11am

126bars @ 1;30
156bars @ 4pm- might be the LOD
OR
OPen on friday
this requires monitoring the close
If the LOW, then the open Friday will rebound strongly

Most likely I will sell them at 4pm

more later
Jay

Heres an EW up to the close on 17th

Jay

ELLIOTT Wave

IMO< THIS NAILS IT

THIS was posted by JB Van Orman on a Yahoo group

On Tuesday, the SPX traded between 789 and 819 to close at 789, down
4.6%. The market is down 4.5% in February, 12.6% in 2009, and 49.9%
from the all-time high.

Resistance is 803 followed by 817 and 828. Support is 779 followed by
769 and 755.

The intermediate trend is down (0 on a scale of 0 to 100). Technical
and momentum indicators are strongly oversold (81 on a scale of 0 to
100).

In wave terms, the market in in the third of five waves down. Wave 1
was 944 to 804. Wave 2 was 804 to 878, a 53% retracement. Wave i of 3
was 878 to 813. Wave ii of 3 was 813 to 875, a 95% retracement.

Wave iii of 3 is in progress. To date, it has traveled from 875 to
789. Given the strongly oversold reading in my work at the close, I
think iii of 3 is near an end. The support of 769/779 noted above may
be that end, with a bounce to the low 800s to follow as wave iv of 3.
Wave v of 3 would follow and take out the 741 November low.

Beyond wave 3, I anticipate the five wave move down from 944 to end
in the first ten days of March. I see 673/690 at a minimum -- this
represents the last long-standing triggered downside target in my
work with 769/789 having been hit today. A close below 673 would open
the door to a new target of 577/592.

Im expecting the next few days to pick up and rebound into the NEW moon on the 24th and OR
the 27th, the next Bradely date

March 2nd follows as the next bradley date, and being so close it should represent a very srtong DOWNTURN as indicated above for an important low between march 4th 7 10th

Today has potential to rebound and hit a high at 10 to 11 am TOMRROW
the 19th should then sell off into the close and or open on Friday
Friday has potential to be a strong rally day

SPX levels as mentioned above by JB

More Later
Jay

Scary Futures

very NEGATIVE Futures at 8:30 are abating some

17th and 18th fall on EXTREMES of the tidal range, thus we should see a wide ranging day today

However, any rebound off open lows does not change the forecast for

WEd - Friday

WEd & Thurs still down sharply, with a strong recovery Friday

What about next week ? You ask. Gee, you sure are in a hurry {g}

Any high gained this week is still under pressure and the mkt is still in down mode till
March 4th , 10th & 18th
In other words the benefit of doubt goes to the bears for March

In fact , ive written this b4
the Graph I posted above shows problems thru June13th as in 1949, making this low a 60 year cycle

Just as the BULLS were in charge all the way to Oct 10th, 2007, the bears have it still
until June 13th, 2009

more later
Jay

update

No change for Tuesday
If they RUN up a HIGH over 100 pts or more by 11:28, then Im out of calls and will look for points to bet short

I might pick up some puts at 11:30 or wait till 1pm or 3pm

A mid day low is expected on the 19th at 2pm;
Why? you ask, thats a good question

on the 19th
50%/13 day cycle AT 2pm
moon 0 Pluto at 2pm
126 bars at 1;30 which might be over run by the above

156 bars hits at 4pm, AND or OPEN on friday am

If 2pm doesnt hold the low, then its possible for Friday to open low and rebound for options exp

ONE main reason for that action is
19th = and 8 day LOW
20th = an 8 day TURN

So you can see how the above scenario fits into that 8day cycle & turn

ALSO
the readings for this week
Tuesday - Optimism abounds & reach for your goals
Wed= MONEY issues take a DIVE
Thurs = Conflicts & frustration
Friday= MIXED trends today- makes some progress

More Later
Jay

60 year cycle

the chart above is from 1949, and it appears to have a striking resemblance to 2009;

Mostly from here to Mid June

I am still expecting an important low March 4th- same as above
then important high April 19th- Armstrong date

We know for a fact that 80% of the losses occur in 20% of the time
thus May & June 2009 could represent the 20% in time - just as above

more later
Jay

Tuesday Feb 17- Prelim report

Got some bullish internals for Tuesday

Jaywiz index = .79
spdr =1.75 -bullish
cboe = .89 - neutral
SPX = 1.40 - b
OEX = 1.13 moderately b
Oil = + 3.74 - b

2/12 was pivot low and was 27/38/55 tr day
I dont expect that LOW to hold & could get broken next week
that would be very bearish for the next few months

2/13 - My propietary adv/dec & vol are hovering near the 400 level, which represents buy signals
but they are not UNDER 400 and therefore not very powerful signals

ARMS 5 day = 201.0
TRIn 5 = 10.5
trin 10 = 142
these are indications of an OVERSOLD mkt, but not necessarily a screaming buy

the one day arms of 5.85 on the 10th is also indicating more BEAR to come

I am expecting A rebound Tuesday to spx 840-850 area, and might hit the highs on the open at 10am on the 18th.
IMO, thats the point to get Short

Any gains made Tuesday should be erased and more by Thursday's close
___________________________________________________

Friday's low at 1pm was @ 150bars and the close @186, and over shoot of 180 at 3;30
From the pivot low on the 12th it looks like
"a" wave to close on 12th
"b" wave to close on 13th
we should expect "c" wave high on 17th

I cant confirm this yet with scientific data as some of it is not available yet
MORE LATER

Jay

Todays cycles

We did hit an important LOW at 3pm yesterday - spx 808

The rebound end of day consider wave 'a' and only part one of 3 you know a-b-c

Today so far looks like 'b' low and the close today including Tuesday's open
should be wave 'c'

Bar cycles today
120b @ 10;30 dow off 35
150b @ 1pm or 156b @ 1;30 dow off 80
180b @ 3;30

hourly
11am was a high & turned lower
1pm is a LOW so far, has turned up a little at 1;20
3:06 pm
Power index shows a strong close as well as Tuesdays morning

I am adding at each successive low which is called scale trading expecting the end result to be $$

the rebound was 235 pts off the 3pm low
thus a setback or "b" wave should sell off up to 38.2% or 90 pts
taking the Dow back down to 7845 area
THAT was the LOW so far at 1pm

Now off 57 at 1:25 pm
Vote on STIM to start at 1:30
Amazing how this type of thing fits into the wave

More Later
Jay

Friday the 13th

what looks like a weak start should turn into a strong rally

If 9:44 offers a decent sell off low, then I will buy some calls
and more at 180bars at 10;30 which could be the AM low,
along with the partial 13 day low as mentioned b4.

also as mentioned b4
I know HOW tough it is to HOLD over such a long weekend, but there is a very strong
Mars 0 Jupiter at 11;28 am on Tuesday which could offer a PEAK, and OPP to get short

Depending on how it goes Tomrrow, my inclination is to sell at close,
but that Jupiter aspect is very tempting.

Today was a perfect score
Low hit at 10am - partial 13 daycycle
turned Up at 11am - hourly
rebound till 12:30 between the goal posts
Low again at 3;10 Hourly turn up
strong close

More Later
Jay

Friday Feb13

well there IT is -- the end of day rebound

Some prelim data shows tomrrow Up, with a minor dip at 10:56am

If youve got the buy power and you didnt buy calls earlier , you might consider some at close

see that hourly at 3;10pm was a low and turned up

32 minutes later = 3:42 might be a rebound high

I dont have a real good position yet, but as I wrote
some prelim data shows tomrrow Up

On a one day one minute chart
OBV hit a low at 3;10
Macd crossed over at 3:10
thus the rebound
amazing how news comes out at just the right moment -
makes people think the news caused the rally
BUT WE KNOW BETTER

I Missed it by 1minute- GRRR

tomrrow;s game plan
IF they open DOWN till 9:44, I will buy some calls
if it opens UP
& they make a low at 11am, I will buy or add some more calls

Tuesday has a high energy Mars 0 Jupiter at 11;28 and could offer the HIGH of the week
I will be getting ready to short that high and will add more if it holds later int he day

Wed Feb 18 could set the mkt back and even take it down to spx 800 or under

Looking like

A LOWER close
IF no rebound after 3pm, then a lower close today
should offer a big upday tomrrow


No guarantees so play it close to the chest
Activity index NOT conducive to a rebound at 3pm

more later
Jay

Rewards

looks like shorting at 3pm will be rewarded this morning

choices we now have ____________

We can close out puts positions at 9;50 - 10 am

OR wait till Noon

most reversals require a an initial low and subsequent retest looking like a W- such should be today's mkt
SAME DEAL for the 13th, but tomrrow could be a V type low.

If I sell put position at 10, I will prepare my brain to buy calls at noon TO SELL AT CLOSE
OR
wait for a big close , then short it expecting another open low, this time at 10;56am, the 23.6%/13 day cycle low
coinciding with 180bars @ 10;30
OR
wait for this low and buy calls to SELL AT CLOSE

More Later
Jay

Missed it - maybe

9:55 high up 80
10:12 low + 40

I will wait for 11am to see if another high
IF SO
then 1;30 = 258bars and shoule be the LOD

then its watch the close
After 258 bars the mkt USUALLY makes it biggest move

hourly highs
11am
1pm
3pm
rounded off

228 bars 11am - conflict with above
258bars @ 1;30

More later
Jay

MORE NOW

DO you believe the NONSENSE the MEDIA, especially CNBC is making of Tim Geitnhers ability to move the markets

last Friday, the gave him credit for the rally and yesterday they hit him hard for causing a 400 point drop

GET REAL Mark Haines & co, IT DONT WORK THAT WAY
& you really dont want to know HOW it works
Of course you need to have things to talk about
PEOPLE WANT TO KNOW

Just ask Charles Nenner- he already told you that in the past;

ON another note
ONe of the BEST WAYS to get the HOME market moving is to, -
I know you wont believe me but its true

RAISE INTEREST RATES

More Later
Jay

FINE Tuning

Dont short the open UNLESS there is a clear advantage
in other words
IF we get a 100 to 150 open by 11am, then I will be inclined to short it
IF not, then dont do anything

IF they close up 100 to 150 then im still going to short the close

However, it will be more advantageous to HOLD off until tomorow at 11am to noon
to buy calls

It looks like there will be more to be gained from a rally late on 12th and all day on 13th
it will probably spill over to Tuesday the 17th, but thats a long time to hold em.

Another BEST SHORTING opp will come on the close of 17th or open of 18th
It looks like the 18th could duplicate Dec 1st.

More later
Jay

NOW WHAT ?

OK, GLAD YOU ASKED.

OK,
We are getting MY projected DECLINE on the 10th
Now what?
The MARKET TOMORROW will open UP with a BANG
SHORT THE OPEN & sell your position at 11am

THEN what? ok ~ glad you asked
SHORT the CLOSE on the 11th
Sell out at OPEN on 12th = 30bars & 13 day segment @ 9:50am

then what ? boy you sure are needy(G)
on the 12th
BUY calls at 11am to noon
and HOLD onto your position thru Friday's close

More later
Jay

Perfect score

Today hit open down 75

But the LOW so far was at 11:30 @ 156 bars
- 310 pts
WILL that be enuf?

Today seem like the kind of day that does NOT want to turn mid day
as I mentioned a few times abut the BAD reading for today
ANd
the opposite POSITIVE reading for tomrrow

Where & what time is today's low ?

we still have 180 bars at 1:30
and 204 bars at 3:30

Hourly highs are @ 1pm & at 3pm which will give us a clue to the 3:30 low

7850 has been solid support last week
8270 - 7850 =420 dow pts

Maybe, maybe not

more later
Jay

WAVE Count

Ive mentioned this several times
in view of what ive noticed about Elliotters, especially STU,
they tend to CLOSE OUT waves TOOO soon
NOW, in view of that
My work suggests the END of the corrective wave on Feb 17th
the other question is how we get there from here today on the 10th.

I am still on the same track as b4
From Nov 21st LOW - call it whatever wave you want = minor wave1, or 3
Jan 6th = WAVE "A" high
Jan 20 = wave "B' Low
Feb 17 wave "C" TOP
Jan 20 to Feb 17 COMPLEX wave
Jan 28 = wv "a" high
Feb 2="b' low
Feb 6 = 'c' hi
feb 10 = 'd' should be today @ 10:30 DOW off 115
feb 17 'e' TOP of WAVE "C"

Jay

PC ratios = sell

SPDR =.59
OEX = .87
SPX 500= 1.35
CBOE ratio = .67
Jaywiz .51

All except the Jaywiz index are moderately bearish

Today hit all the NOTES on Q

10am Eclipse low
90b@ 12;35
120b @ 3pm

Hourly
10:05 turned UP
11am high
1:03 high
3.06 Low

I see the 3pm bar low matched the hourly
___________________________________
Tomrrow
13 day at 10:30
150b@ 11
which could stretch that 13 day to 11am or even noon

180B @ 1;30
204B @ 3:30

Hourly hasnt changed
Round off
11am
1pm
3pm

Astro reading for tomorrow indicates as already posted
Disappointment & Look out for Murphy's law
Anxiety and a bumpy day

However, Wed is EXACT OPPOSITE and should be a strong rally day

As previously posted
Feb 17th is the MONTH high and I think we are climbing a triangle to get there

Of course, when finished prices will PLUNGE as on Dec1st to start
A low on March 6th could match Nov 21st

More Later
Jay

TRIANGLE ??

Its hard to say yet what type of triangle is forming, but so far it
looks like a rising bottom with a contracting top
IF so, then Feb 10th should NOT hit lower than spx 820 intraday
AND Feb 17th should NOT hit higher then Feb 6th.

A 2pm LOW time is in between 180bars@ 1;30 & 204 bars @ 3;30
there is a LOW tide at 3:02 pm, and hourly at 3:06pm

the reading for the 10th calls for disappointment
and Murphy's law - whatever can go wrong will go wrong.

There is a small cluster of 3 hard aspects from midnite to 6am on the 11th
which if anything would have its effects on the 10th.

Feb 17th/18th =
21 trade days from Jan 20 - low
34 from DEc29 low
55 from Nov 28 high
this timing could be equal to Nov 28 high on 17th with Dec 1st plunge on Feb 18th

more later

Jay

FINE Tuning

If we are in a minute wave 2 UP TREND against the minor downtrend
then its possible there might be one more leg from A Feb11th LOW

Next week looks like this according to the power index

Monday & Tuesday both LOWER
Wed Up
Thursday down, but not a lower low
Friday Up to 17th high
_____________________________________________
Astro view
18th to 24th down possibly leading to a further decline into March 6th
THIS is the point in time that could match Nov 21st

A wave comparable to Nov 21 / Jan 6th could offer a rebound here to April19th

more later
Jay

Clearer picture

Feb 6th was an 8 day what? obviously it wasn't a LOW
SO, if it was a HIGH
then Monday is an 8DAY TURN, which obviously means going lower

Since Feb 12th makes a 55 tr days cycle, *********then it really should be a low**********
Its also even more important a 39tr day cycle from Dec 15th- actually 38+1/2 days for Dec24th
Some analysts like to use 27 tr days which is also on the 12th from the Jan5th HIGH
SO it makes everything Equal distant 27 day from Nov 20 to jan 5th
ANd 27 days to Feb12th
BUT DO BE assured----THAT IS NOT the END Of it !!

full moons tend to enrgize, but Monday's ECLIPSE at 9:50 may have already spent its energy
with regard to stock price advances
Price levels tend to play between the eclipses
High Jan 26-28 to low Feb 3 to 5 to high on 6th or 9th

having proposed that, lets look a little further ahead

Once the 12th LOW at spx 792 is done, we can then expect another rebound to take form- and WHY NOT
12th has potential to make its low at 10am & turn up from there- same as the 5th
Feb14th - HAppy valentines day - NO Massacre this year - exact opposite on Friday the 13th.
13th to 17th look like BIG RALLY DAYS

but the atmosphere turns sour again from FEb 18th to the new moon on the 24th

More Later
Jay

Scientific resource data

10am update
SPX up 15 to 860
dow Up 150 to 8210

HOWEVER,
ACTIVITY INDEX FLAT LINE at .6 = lowest possible level
ALL 3 solar effects in DOWN MODE

Power index shows lows today and potential lower low on Monday
with one more lower low on Tuesday, then Up the rest of the week with'
a huge rally on Friday

Yeh, I know, this contradicts my last post
NOW you see why theres so much confusion

The PROOF will be what happens today and Monday

You know what they say
If you cant take the heat, then get out of the kitchen
Maybe I should take my own advice {gg}

EITHER WAY
we could get to 790 by Monday
OR
BY Thursday

Summarize
spx 790 is coming SOON to a market near you
Jay

CONFUSION or NOT

THIS TYPE of WAVE count confuses everyone, even me {G}

The big question here is
DID the E wave HIGH actually occur @ 850
Or
IS there still more UP to go late today and or Monday

The actual D wave can NOW drop between 850 & 816 today
and rally one more time to 850 on Monday as the E wave
_________________________________________
FEb 12th is 55 tr days from Nov 20th, and should offer a strong tradings LOW
It might NOt be the BIG 3rd wave most Elliotters are expecting but
we could easily get back down to 780-790 spx

Take a look back at Nov 13 to Nov 20- Dow lost 1280 pts
a low at 780 area = a loss of 70 spx pts = 560 dow = 7500 area
thus matching Nov 20th lows on the dow , but NOT the SPX

Thats a CLEAR WARNING for bears when the
SPX stays stronger than the DOW
________________________________________

FUTURES reversed UP at 8:30
BUT
OIL is DOWN over $2.00
and futures are weakenning at 9:15
___________________________________

Hours today
10am - should be a high & futures are right there
then
10;47am
1:06
3:15

Bar cycles
258B @ 11:30 - this could be the most important low o f the day
30b@ 2pm

this leaves 60 bars for Monday at 10am on Monday which
COINCIDES with THE 9:50am ECLIPSE

PC ratios yesterday are mixed
but OEX = .72 and is the most sensitive index and is bearish
Jaywiz index =.22 on WEd
=.54 today


More NOW
Today Feb 6th is an 8 DAY segment and should be a LOW
BUT obviously might have become the 8 day HIGH
Monday is an 8 day TURN , and as such should offer
at least 3 days down to the 12th.

12th again, is 55 trade days from Nov 20 ***********

WATCH FEb 12th NEWSPAPERS
on Nov 20th the NEWS papers reported { WALL ST SLUMP}
and we all know a rebound started from there
SO, its sell the rumor- BUY the news

NOW, keep in mind
there are indications for further losses after April 19th thru MID June

OK Now, this time , its More later
Jay

Timing A Low

I did not post the times correctly yesterday

today
9:40 LOW
10:08 High- bot more puts
10;58 - did you see that mini spike high?
12:45-- TIME TO DIVE
3;08


bar cycles
90b@ 10;30 -- minor dip
126b@ 1;30 -MKT diving now down 86
150B @ 3;30 - could be the LOD ?


Activity index took at DIVE at 1:30pm-
and you already know the mkt also took a dive
Exact opposite of yesterday

Nenner looking for low on or about the 6th.

Yesterday's PC ratios gave a sell
Internals gave a SELL on Jan 28th
__________________________________

Tomorrows bar cycles
180b@ 11:30
204b @ 1:30
228b @ 3;30

power index starts at 400, and drops to 300
gauge index continues to drop from 3011 to 2998

______________________________
Friday's important BAR cycle
258B @ 11;30

Reading for friday
Challenges & LOW energy in the AM
power index starts at 300 and rises to 400

Summary
early high on 4th gives way to a BIG dive on 5th
and ends at 11:30 on friday, then closes better

More Later
Jay

Testing Nov 21 ??

I dont think anyone doubts there will be a retest of Nov 21
the question is ""WHEN""

Feb 10 happens to be 54 tr days from Nov 21 which makes it a good candidate
also computes with other tr days
13-21-34-54-89-112-144-233

Feb9th is a LUNAR eclipse= full moon
mkt sometimes drops right after

Today's numbers
Power index opens at 425 & closes at 350
Activity index which jumped UP like a cat on a hot tin roof is STILL holding the 4 level at 8am
main gauge index has dropped from 3022 to 2998 showing a downtrend the next 2 days

------------------------------------------------------------

Bar cycle LOWS
90@ 10:30
126@1:30
150@ 3:30

Hourly cycles
9:35 -9:40 = should be the open low
10;08 should be the rebound high

10:48
12;49
3:08

hourlies have offerred highs more often than lows, but its not cast in stone
we have seen a shift recently and they have become mixed

Thursday
Power index opens at 400, and closes at 300
should be the BEST selling day of the week

SOME are also projecting the 6th down sharply
it might OPEN weak, but IMO, and my work suggests it will close higher

More Later
8:30 reports did NOTHING to change the open

Jay

DOWN we go

Except for possible high at 9:35,

Feb4th should be DOWN and more so on the 5th

Bar cycle
90b@ 10;30
126B @ 1:30
150b @ 3:30

hourly
10:48
12;49
3;08

Tues Power index
425 open
350 close

WEd power index
400 open
300 close

gauges 3022 high today drops to 3009
and some under 3000

Activity index bounced on Q with stocks

Will report back in the AM
More later
Jay

REBOUND

DID I write rebound?
And there it is
Like MAGIC

OK, I bot SOME puts near the close

and will ADD more on any UP open till 9:40 or 10 am

ALL my time slots got hit today for highs and lows

Power index says we open higher,
but it might only be a very small amount and very short lived

Activity index blasted off after 2pm - incredible

More later
Jay

TRENDING LOWER

The TREND remains DOWN till Feb 9th

That will not change
therefore

IT will be more beneficial to buy puts on any rebound

Yesterday as predicted
OPENED lower till 9:40
rebound high at hourly 12;45 pm
hourly LOW at 3pm exact
Hourly high at 3;41
closed on 258 bar low
-------------------------------------------------------------------

TODAY - FEb 3rd
PC ratios indicate SELL
Opened slightly higher
10 am dow up about 5
10;16 is FIRST hourly and should offer a TURN DOWN to the 13 day cycle low
Activity index is FLAT LINE at .6 = very bearish

62%/13 day @ 10:43= could be LOD or just the AM
SELL any rebound after this low
HIGHS could occur at 12:58pm or 3:06pm

Bar cycle lows
noon
2:30

Power index
325
400
350
_____________________________________________
The power index for Wed Am Shows
425 open
350 close
that means a HIGHER OPEN and substantially lower close
could be the BEST SELLING OPP this week as the
power index continues lower till the 9th

More later
Jay

8:30am update

Yes it still looks like 180 bars has the OPEN LOWER till 9:40AM

After a bounce, there still is the 11;29 low to deal with which
doesnt have to be lower at all, but can be

As for ME, Im trading out of puts at the OPEN

a bounce indicated by the gauge level for today
opens at 3004, and moves higher to close at 3014
offers a good opp to short the close

Heres a chart of the pwer index for next 5 days
DAY ----Open --- Intra ----Close
MON ----300------------------500 indicates a DOWN open then Up
Tues ----325-------300-------400 indicates a DOWN open, lower, then up
Wed ----425------300------400 indicates an up open, down, then up
Thr -----350------300-------350 indicates a lower open, lower, then up
Fri -----300 ----------------300 indicates a lower open and down all day

For those who dont micro manage their trading
closing out puts at open today allows repositioning those assets
at higher prices on the open of the 4th-
thus buying back at lower put prices

More later
Jay