Jan 5th high
SPX (i) 943.85 to 804.30 -139.55 =Jan 20 low
(ii) 804.3 to 875.01 70.71 50.7% Jan 28th
(iii) i 875.01 to 754.25 -120.76 ****** WAS THIS LAST WEEK - Feb 20 @ 1:20pm
ii 754.25 800.38 46.13032 38.2% ***NEXT WEEK - some are projecting 850spx
iii 800.38 to604.99 -195.38968 1.618 ^^^^ March 10th
iv 604.99 to 725.74 =120.75 61.8% ^^^^^^^^END OF MARCH
v 725.74 to 604.98 v=i -270.03
(iv) 604.98 to 771.86 61.80%
(v) 771.86 - 632.31
MAJOR LOWS on June13th at spx 600
Some others are considering a LOW of 572 to 580.
I like this scenario
I would make a slight change in the labelling but it still
comes out the same in the end
This is From Ravi Metre on Crystal ball group
More later
Jay
4 comments:
Jay.....
I see mid / end March low and the an up period in April.
The major crash comes in September'09. IMHO.
Hi Jay:
Thanks for the attribution. You are right about the labelling which is off by one degree from convention. (i), (ii), (iii) should be 1, 2, 3 etc.
After I posted that scenario at Crystalball, I noticed that the last wave labelled (v) ending at 632.31 in my scenario fell short of going below(iii) low of 604.99 when I used (v)=(i) for it. I posted this version in error, rather than a corrected one that works better with (v)= .618* (iii), and gives 579 target within your 572 to 580 number.
A simpler scenario for the entire 5th to be equal to the 1st from 10/21/07 to 3/17/2008, ie 1576.09-1256.98=319.11 from Jan 5 top of 943.85 gives a target of 624.74. If we have higher retraces, like above 38% at 804 next etc, 624 works fine.
On post-ATH log chart, the support line joining 1/23/2008 low and 11/21/2008 low is right now passing around 630 level but declining 5.2% a month and will be around the 572-580 area in 2 months.
Also, the 61.8% retrace of move from 60.96 low of 10/4/1974 is at 639. So lots of ways to get to 600 plus or minus 30 points. Not to forget a neat little 10x of '74 low at 609.6!!
Your June 13 date for low makes the duration of the 5th wave about equal to the 1st wave from 10/21/08 to 3/17/08, just 12 days longer.
Ravi
Jay:
Not to forget the simplest of all the targets. Treat October 6, 2008 ‘realization gap as the half way marker. You get 1576.09 ATH minus center of the mother of all gaps around 1075= 501. Now, 1075 minus another 501 points gets you to guess what, 574.
Ravi
thanks for the additions
Jay
Idris
A low in JUNE 2009 + 8.6 months
= March 2010
just like yr 2000
then spt 2000= spt 2010
and the rest is history
2001 & 2002
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