THE FUTURE

THE FUTURE
DO YOU WANT TO SEE THE NEXT BREXIT in ADVANCE ?

Monday, October 17, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -Oct 23rd Euro Debt Summit in doubt

DEbt Summit this next wkend is enshrouded with difficult vibes.
people will prefer to stand firm against being pressured creating anxiety
and tension leading to resistance.
this does not bode well for an agreement, thus leading to further stock price weakness
on 24th & 25th, but 25th open should provide a pivot to the expect peak on the 31st.
UBS' Stephane Deo has rapidly become of one of the most vocal, and luckily most erudite, critics of the veritable rumor-a-palooza that Europe has become: a continent that is now desperately throwing anything and everything at the wall in hopes it will stick and generate another intraday EURUSD short covering squeeze to perpetuate the illusion that Europe is viable for at least one more day. His note today effectively puts an end to the most current approach whereby Greece will see a 50% haircut on its debt (the 21% haircut proposal from July 21 is now dead and buried as we had suggested back then). With that, he forces Europe back to the drawing table to come up with a plan that is endorsed by the market, with just 9 short days until the Eurogroup Summit on October 23 at which point kicking the can into the future will no longer be tolerated and the market will finally judge Europe not for promises, rumors, lies, innuendo and hyperbole, not necessarily in that order, but on actual decisions and policies. Alas, if the 50% haircut idea, which is now proposed by Germany (in diametrical contrast to a month ago), and staunchly opposed by France whose banks, unlike Deutsche Bank, have not been able to dispose of legacy exposure, is killed before it is even implemented, look for a spike in panic in Europe which will now have to redo everything from scratch.
BEST WISHES - Jay

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