Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Another rally that didnt

I really should have paid more attention the Bradley date - Jan 20th

Even with the close today @ 805 we could still see a lower close tomrrow to 792

Im expecting a rebound till midday on the 21st, but it doesnt look like it can hold

Cliff had mentioned a few times that the 792 GAP had not been filled, ,and that might just provide a strong closing target for tomrrow

We STIll have a few stats to think about
Today was 38 tr days NOv 20
after recounting with those 2 half days makes 4pm today 56 tr days Oct 27th
that makes tomorrow day # 39, and Thursday and even 40
40 / 4 = 10 divisions of 4 from Nov 20
39 tr days NOV 21st at 11:05 = 3 cycles of 13 days to Jan 22@ 10 to 11am

we had a 935 high - 120 = 815 minus another 40 = 775
Murrey math #s 816 last is broken @ 805 now - 31 = 785 -15 more = 770
So now we have 2 levels close to each other by 2 different methods

ONE very important stat which Ive mentioned several times
Jan 22 AT 10:30 am , which could end up at 10am
IS THE 100%/13 DAY cycle completion at 10 to 10;30 with a 30 min variance

Also: my 2 main gauges popped up over the wkend to 3024
then proceeded to fall to 3008 at close today
and drop to 3001 tomrrow, after a brief run up to 3012 intraday

Tech data says SELL even after today
Jaywiz index which gave high readings all week except for last Tuesday now gave a LOW .19
CBOE PC ratio 96
OEX pc ratio 55
SPX 500 pc ratio = 125
those are all in agreement for a lower level

HOWEVER< ONCE we get to 770 area which would = another 35 pts lower than today
and a loss of 280 more down points to 7669 , can then get a huge oversold rebound into mid day on the 27th

How high is HIGH?
Do the math yourselves- but its no where near what I was thinking last week
only fibo %age rebound and not a run to the Jan 6th level

More later


Anonymous said...

the market should attempt to climb a bit into Friday, perhaps recapturing all of Tuesdays drop.

Best wishes,

Superbear said...

My pattern shows an uptrend from today afternoon through Friday noon.

Anonymous said...

Jay, about two weeks ago this
date appeared as a low in a post
I title " 9 days ", it surprised
me too on Tues, but the rally is still on.

After a Friday peak may be be 4
days chop then up again.

I think Eric Hadik is also calling
the low here, of the 1st half.