New Chart

LOOKS TO me like 5th has come and GONE
26 hour cycle took us to 3pm on 30th

Next 26 hr cycle is Aug5th at 3pm

If 1002 is deemed the HIGH of the March 9th rally trend,
and Aug 7th is to be a high at that level, then the rally has to come from much lower

Positive SENTIMENT was SO THICK friday - ITS GOT to be taken DOWn to NEGATIVE

Aug5th is teh NEXT best bet for a low in the spx 950 to 925 area
IF SUCH A LOW IS ACTUALLY COMING

NOW you skeptics and amateurs remember this is ONLY a
FIBO level THAT the mkt should seek IF a sell off is coming within this time frame

Now, is that how you want me to frame my projectsion
NOTHING IS CUT IN STONE< and just because I throw it out there, doesnt make it so

Jay
ps;
Thanks Sam
I'll post if I can

TIDES

FYI

Jay

FIZZLE

Freds thinking 1008

BUT he doesnt have my road map
__________________________________
IT Started earlier, but at 6pm we HAVE
Merc # Jupiter == Excessive ideas fizzle

At 4am tomrrow we have Merc 180 Nptune
== BIG IDEAS DIE & Fizzle

Geez, I cant imagine why the mkt lost 50% of its earlier gains
__________________________________________
TOMRROW, Ive posted several times and wont repeat it again
multiple FIBO CYCLE CONVERGENCE
8 day cycle convergence
Multiple hard aspects
Midnite Low tide on Saturday
________________________________
I will be BUYING the CLOSE

more later
Jay

NO Support

Sorry CNBC- Last hour not the same as earlier this week

OBV tanking

MACD tanking

Ult Osc = ditto

Activity index tanked about 2pm, and is now at 100 for about 30 minutes

It would appear that wave v was at the 11am HOURLY high & turn

Jay

TODAY's CHART

How long will this UPLEG take

982 to 969 = wve iv as Ravi has shown us

wv v should NOT be much more than 982, and only needs a thrust this AM

more later
Jay

UPDATE

New thread for today

a close under 970 today should lead to the big sell off tomrrow, and finishing friday low at close

Todays read:
NO shopping
No $ Planning
keep secrets
dont listen to the crowd
bide your time
_____________
Thsday
difficult encounters
poor communications
arguments over $$
_________________

Friday
unstable communications
intense power conflicts
__________

Monday - Aug 3
BIG BIZ GETS the GREEN LIGHT

Friday Aug 7th
Fortune Smiles

Monday Aug 10 starts a little setback, but theres still more bull till the 17th

Jay

WHATS NEXT ?

Elliott wave stand ASIDE

the SKY is falling and so is the MKT

PROPENS index drops from 3005 to 2997 into tomorrow AM so far

and the SPX futures are already at 973

gold & Oil also taking it on the chin at 8:30am

Look for an initial LOW tomrrow between 10 & 11am,
which MIGHT flow over to the end of the day, but I dont
have a confirmation of that yet.

Flash has TOO Many change dates- NOW 7/30 & 7/31 NO help
but it is consistent with my proposed trading schedule for this week


more later
Jay

update

The problem is that if we include after market iii is smaller than both i and v; which invalidates the count as an 5 wave impulse. That means that we were still working on iii of (v)that started at 972.18.

So, there may be a bit left on the (v) of A to work on early Monday with a target of 987 to 993 where v of (v) = 1.382 to 1.618 of i of (v).

The bigger question is how shallow or deep the B retrace would be. There is potential support at the old 956 top of June 11, which may even prevent a 38.2% retrace.

Only a break of 965.95 will confirm that B is in progress.

Ravi
_____________________________________________________


Ravi,
I'M LOOKING FORWARD at August 10th for possible wave 5 of "A"

IF so then, we can have a more extended decline into LATE SPT for the REAL wave"B'

Oct 10th then looks most prominent for the FINAL wave "C" - 2 top

This is the PICTURE I am getting from the ROAD MAP provided by NATURAL ENERGY

FROM Oct10th we get another MORE EXTENDED DECLINE to APRIL 2010

_______________________________________________________

THE ABOVE commentary means
IMO<> wv iii of "A"
and next week should = wave iv of "A"
thus the forecast as above

Thanks for the great comments - very constructive - and informative

more later
Jay

More Serious CHART

NOTICE THE PINCH on the BOLLINGER bands just like GOLD a couple weeks ago
when it took an $18 dive the next day

MACD and Ult confirm roll over as does OBV on a 1day/1 min chart

Jay

Elvis has LEFT the ???

Just to let you all know that ELVIS is alive an well
so is Marylin and I have the memory of her back side to think about
Elvis made sure my wife's hands were busy in front holding the mic
hahahaha

Hope everyone has a good laugh- that pic cost me $5

______________________________________________

As for the MKT, I dont think I promised or inferred today would crash-
I did , however, expect it to start out lower at 11am, but that never hit
And I had mentioned somewhere to expect 3pm to be higher

NOW that its over, the FUTURES ARE lower for the open as of 7pm tonight.

THe PROPENSITY has several parts, and 3of them are ahead
by 2 days and each one of those parts has collapsed for tomrrow

Power index drops off from 500 to 400, but the mkt can do a lot more

I will update all in the AM

OEX pc ratio = .67, and I havent seen it that low since late June
CBOE pc ratio also on a sell @ .87
Spider also @ 1.29

GOLD IS about to take a hit
gld pc ratios have been low all week except for the 22nd
15-28-75-14

Numerology number 9 is an ending number
dow hit 9096.72 & could not break about 9100 = 1 a new start
so it failed at that level and so will the mkt tomrrow show its true direction for the next 5 days

SOME OF YOU GET TOOO EMOTIONAL, simply because yuove been HOLDING ONTO
your DESIRE for the mkt to respond to your puts, and as each dasy goes higher, your value
drops to ???

You should be SCALE trading and ADDING MORE as each level is achieved
THRE IS NO WAY YOU CAN ALWAYS EXPECT TO CATCH THE TOP OR BOTTOM
And YOU MUST prepare for that- mentally as as with your cash reserves
THIS IS TRUE OF BOTTOMS AS WELL

ON JULY6th, I wrote to expect the mkt to run to 950 by or near JULY22nd
Just because you didnt believe me then, dont FOLLOW THE CROWD NOW
We bears ARE clearly NOW in the MINORITy - ALA pc ratios

I wrote several times this week for the 23rd
DONT BELIEVE what you hear - for eg atilla , sorry guy
dont get SUCKED in for example Exhuberance from CNBC - jerks
dont follow the CROWD -- some one on TV who says we are now going right to spx 1000

EVERYTIME I GET one of those readings at either a top or even at a bottom,
IT mean a change is at hand

AND THAT MEANS RIGHT NOW

more later
Jay

UPDATE

Looks like the drop to 943.22 on Tuesday completed the shallowest of (iv); and we have been doing a diagonal 5th since then having completed or close to have completed the fourth within that. (The idea of of fourth wave triangle, with 970ish target,, died one we made higher hi today)

This would imply that we go up to 11, NOT DOWN, tomorrow AM to 960-962 area to complete the upmove from 869. This is more in line with your earlier timing work of a top tomorrow 11ish , if I recollect it right.
.

That would be 91-93 points up. Fibo will then be 35, 45, 55 points down to 927, 917, 907 area. I do not see 970.

My gut says we may not get below 927. Let us see.

Ravi
________________________________________________________

from Jaywiz
Propensity index shows a MAJOR DROP either late today or ALL day tomorrow
spx 960 might be on the table, but it matters NOT as the NEXT BIG move is DOWN

Closing out longs today would be a very good idea ,IMO

WELL now, Just got a confirmation from some SHMUCK on Wall street at 9:25 claiming the
SPX is NOW GOING TO 1000 -- HMMMFF

As previously posted SEVERAL times
TURN happens on the 23rd
2+3 = 5 = numerology = CHANGE

I will ADD more shorts today on ANY RALLY to 9:45 this AM
and will PLAN to SELL on or b4 Friday at 4pm

MONDAY as previously reported
Leisurely day & Sublime - probably biased UP
Tuesday is going to be the MOST IMPORTANT day of August and should be the BULK of the LOSS
WEd is the 13 day cycle low at 10;30 which might be the PIVOT low, but could languish all day at the lows
RALLY on 30th to Augst 7th -10th

As of today, 11am is still to be considered for a low
150bars & Merc 135 uranaus
180bars at 1:30 could also offer a pivot low
HOD looks posssible at 3pm with hourly & moon 180 Jupiter


more later
Jay

SPX to 970

You can plainly see the SPX wants to TOUCH the UPPER LINE at 970

This is the same 25 day chart I posted a couple weeks ago, and projected spx 950 at that time
eveyone groaned that day [g], but HERE we are just 10 days later

ITS NOW 113days from the FEB 6th high to high
110 days to 115 days Maxes out
115 tr days = the 23rd

more later
Jay

UPDATES

Ravi said...Hi Eveyone:

I am bacck in the USA and the similar time zone as others here.

Looks like we completed Wave (iii) (up from 869 low) at July 16th hi of 943.96 and done a, b of extended correction for wave (iv) in two days. Today should be c of (iv), with a target in 927.45 to 934.31 area, the area of the prior lesser degree iv.

Say we end (iv) at 930; then (v) = 1.618 of (i) will target 960 area as the end of A and beginning of B for a deeper correction.

Can we do all that by 23rd to fit into Jay's time consideration? Certainly looks plausible if we sell of about 20 points today and then a do 30 points in a 5 wave up for the next two days.
___________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________
Jaywiz wrote:

MY work seems to be looking at mid day on the 23rd for the HIGH & TURN

the reading for the 23rd=
DONT FOLLOW THE CROWD
Look for SUDDEN changes
safeguard your possessions

the BULK of the decline appears next week thru the AM of the 29th

960 to 970 should stop the advance if we get back to 940 area today which was last Ths/fri closes
I think 935 might be more than I can expect

Today's PROPENS shows
down -- up - down close

notice that Chankya's chart coincidentally also shows the 23rd as the TURN date

and AS I mentioned several times 2+3 =5 = change
Jay

Great Chart

OK, heres Chanakay's chart again
SHOWS A HIGH on the 23rd as does ASTRO & the power index below
IT looks EXCELLENT so far

JULY astro points to weakness from the 22nd to the 28th

How high is high and how low is low??
Arak, it matters NOT when you know what time it is on the market clock
And my initial projection to 950 is looking better and should make it above
the previous "A"A wave high at 956 intraday , or 946 on close

We can ALL do the MATH for potential FIBO levels

We are right NOW NEARING the PRECIPICE for the decline for JULY
but NOT yet - it NEEDS TO GO HIGHER STILL

The Astro reading - Monday should OPEN with a RALLY to START
the propens index shows this also, but its NOT complete yet,
so I will UPDATE Monday AM


THE POWER index advance view
7/20 -Monday = 400 ~~ 300 ~~450~~400@eod
7/21 -Tuesday = 350 ~~400- 500~~ 400 @ eod
7/22- WEd = 425 ~~ 525 ~~425 @eod
7/23- Ths = 500~~400@eod
____________________________________________-
MONDAY
The above indicates TO ME an UP open, with a setback and Hgher close, but off the 3pm high

Tuesday
Starts DOWN , rallies, but ends lower

WEd
UP ALL DAY, but might close lower, unless Thsday open lower

Ths
Higher open- lower close

more later
Jay

update

WHATS NEXT ?

we got a HIGH on JUNE11th at 956 and a LOW on Jluy8th at 870
OR
should we count it from JULY1st at 930 to 870 on july8th
???????
In other words we REALLY should be looking NOW for the rebound HIGH
Lets count an a-b-c rebound wave 1 or wave "A" from Jun11 to July 8th as complete
and you know how I feel about doing that too soon, but it does look probable
____________________________________-
86 spx pts were lost
86 x 38.2% = 33
870+33 = 903 OR 880 + 33 = 913
So we get a range of 903 to 913
And YOU can do the rest of the math
50%
61.8%
78.6% = most likely = 68 pts + 870= spx 938- 948
NOW thats fascinating because it was 68 pts we used to try to get to 820
and it was 68 pts lost from 956 to 889 on the June 11 to June 23 decline

950 is at the TOP of the formation of the crossed lines on the
20 day spx CHART I posted at the blog several times

THIS IS NOT a guarantee or MY projection at all
_________________________

Timing for such an event as the "B" or "X" wave just prior to
a very steep sell off thru August and SPT
8/18 is is a half 55 tr day cycle <28days> from july8 = 80 tr days from Arpil 20
9/24 is the complete 55 tr day cycle from the same or 110 from Apr 20
_______________________________________--

Back to the X wave
timing should be 112 to 115 tr days from FEB 6th HIGH TO HIGH
counting days = July 20 to 23rd
Remember I mentioned the 23rd of the month USUALLY represents a CHANGE
Why? because 2+3 = 5 and in numerology 5 = CHANGE
BUT ITS ALSO 115 tr days from FEB 6th HIGH TO HIGH

And this time the full moon Eclipse of July7th came in around a LOW
then the SOLAR eclipse of JULY 21st should offer a HIGH
And the daily readings SUPPORT that view.
_______________________

VERY SIMPLE Elliott = KISS

March 6th to June 11th = WAVE "A"
June 11 to July10th = WAVE "B"
July 10th to July 23rd = wave "C" , maybe
&
Consider this the end of WAVE 2 maybe
NOw begins the dreaded wave 3, maybe
because as I've said many times, most Elliotticians tend to END waves TOOO soon.

and I do have some evidence that this wave will NOT END UNTIL ???
yup, you guesses it - OCT10th 2009
2 X 250 tr days spread high to high = 500 tr days

more later
Jay

IMO< The chart shows a LIMITED rally in the making

IF it starts at 3pm, it should finish Monday by 11am to 1pm

Jay

RIGHT ON THE 880 LINE

Looks LIKE they HELD the 880 LINE and would NOW target 950 by July20-22

Sam
IF we get any lower open, which I doubt, I will ADD MORE CALLS

the ONLY thing that could DRAG it lower at 10:30 would be the 13 day cycle completion 100%
BUT look back at Nov 21st,
which OPENED higher and fell back into 11:05am
which was ALSO a 13 day cycle completion & closed UP 495 dow pts.

I bot some calls at close and sold all my puts
I WILL ADD MORE CALLS if they sell BACK -- AFTER a higher open
tomrrow
____________________________________
ALSO the ACTIVITY INDEX in the last 2 hours MOVED higher above 300-
______________________________________________

NOTE~~ JULY 8th at 2:30 spx at 869.70 MATCHED a TIME value of
55 tr days from APRIL 20th LOW

AND today @ 11;10 am was a TIME match of 55 tr days April 21st at 10:45am

IF it wasn't for the other cycles as I mentioned several times for 4pm today
I SHOULD have been out on the 8th

NOW< heres a LESSON we ALL NEED TO LEARN
Next time we get OUT on a day like the 8th as above and
WAIT OUT THE CLOSE of the 9th to BUY CALLS

MANY of us did gt out on the 7th, but we got back in toooo early
NOTE ~~ WE DONT NEED TO TRADER EVERY DAY

Sometimes its best to WAIT for a BETTER trade,
such as getting long at today's close

More Later
Jay

TODAY's CHART

NOTICE a couple things

Tomrrows OPEN rally my have ALREADY occurred

AN A"B "C rebound is quite clear OFF the 2:30 LOD
which looks like 5 wves DOWn from the 10:15 HOD

OBV is LACKING on the last hour rally - compare it to the high at 1;20
it STAYED FLAT

MACD rolled over

ULT OSC heading lower right at the close

this configuration has led to a LOWER OPEN may times
_______________________________

Suppose 329 bars as a cycle completion low at noon today
It leads to 126bars at 4pm Tomrrow
OR
using 108bars today, we still get to 204 bars at close tomrrow
IN addition, since 126bars was DUE at 4pm, they
OFTEN OPEn on the BAR CYCLE LOW which means a
SMASH DOWN OPEN

the chart confirms that premise

They got spx 869.32 at the low today in the second set of 5 waves at 2;30pm
930-870=60pts

67 pts matches the 956-890 wave 1 or A
wave B got back to 930
930 - 67 = 862 which has been mentioned many times
HOWEVER,
67 x 1.618 = 108pts
930-108 = 822

I know it hard to imagine all that in one day, but????????
NOT unreal as it would be 460 dow points & 58 spx pts

Lets hope for the best so we can also BUY the close
It would appear right now that whatever is lost tomrrow
will be quickly regained on Friday

Jay

Chart

THE H&S is broken thus it looks like dow 7500 is dead ahead

and JULY9th is THE BEST timing for such an event

This will also allow for a recovery into JULy20th- NOT 22nd

BY the 22nd they START a declining mode again to the 28th.

Jay

Chart

SOMETIMES its JUST that SIMPLE

Jay

Ibo's CHART

This chart shows is more clearly as I described it on the previous post

ONCe we get to the high of this current leg,
MID DAY TOMRROW

the LOWS are dead ahead

Jay

WAVES

Today looks like we are in the process of a sideways move OFF the low of noon ,
as the LOW of NOOn TODAY @ 8215 did NOT supercede
the LOW of yesterday at 10:45am at 8210 dow & spx 886.68

that leads me to suspect we are in a 2nd wave and or "B" wave where they should recover late today
and should open higher as we have already had THREE down opens in a row

ONCe they get back to spx 898 or near it, we can consider the "B" wave a
FLAT which IS VERY BEARISH, and the next move is the "C" wave to a
low on the close of the 8th at 126bars
to be matched by a secondary
low on the 9th at 204bars, plus the other cycles

Heres something to think about
If we split the 19.5 hours in half, we get 9 + 3/4 hrs thru mid day tomrrow
take us to about 1pm tomrrow on the 8th for the mid point
that might be the NEXT SHORTING OPP

Then the last 9+3/4 hrs take us right to the close of the 9th

Right now is a declining activty index now at 133, down from 233
NOT devastating, but we'll see what it does later

SOOOO, How do we play this NOW??
I am thinking about SHORTING any rally tomrrow by 1pm
And holding it thru the close of the 9th.
BUT
I ALSO want to get ready to buy long the close on THsday- & heres WHY
POWEr index jumps from 300 at close on the 9th
TO 500 on the 10th

Jay

NOTHING has CHANGED

Despite SNIPPY remarks from certain so called friends on twitter

NOTHING HAS CHANGED THIS WEEK

WAVE "C" is NOW in progress

SPX 956- 886 = 70
70 x 1618 = 113

SPX 931- 70 = 861
SPX 931-110= 820

WAVE 1 UNFOLDED today at the LOW at 10:45 right on the MARS 90 Neptune

WAVE 2 might have finished at 4pm

They have a VERY LIMITED time to get to the objective above
LOW is STILL UNCHANGED at 4pm on the 9th

Remember I HAD mentioned 26 hrs at 4pm TODAY
NOW we only have19.5 hrs to go

How will it break down?
I know - lets ask FLASH

Hey FLAsh, let us in to SIMON
WHATS NEXT ?? , please

thanks
Jay

Summer 2009 PROJECTIONS

FROM TIME & CYCLES , which you can access right from this blog

this is my FIRST look at it, and you can see how closely Chanakya matches my projections

Just as I posted, a 3pm to 3:30 rebound, of sorts, nothing to write home about

And can you believe it an extra 15 minutes today???

Ive mentioned the 40 point rule of thumb several times
from 666 + 280 = 946 which was the closing high on June12th
946 - 40 = [906] - 40 = [866] - 40 = [826] - 40 = [786]

WE have SEEN these numbers contrived my other methods
but this one is really very simple

Since 906 has been breached, we now look for 866
and so forth if also breached at each level

Jay

Fred's Chart

Have we turned the corner ??
Jay

WAVE 2 still in progess

Some of YOU have SHORT term memory loss,
no money is lost unless you close out the position

THE CHART above was POSTED a few days ago and its STILL THE SAME OLD SAME OLD
BUT NOT FOR VERY MUCH LONGER

ONCE wave 2 ends, we will KNOW it for sure as Spx 912.79 will be smashed convincingly

We have posted the target prices several times

the DOW according to Woodson , and please no derogatory comments about him- i dont care
Im just using HIS math

DOW 8877 on JUNE11th to 8259on June 24th was 618pts fibo
THAT as we have posted several times was WAVE 1

WHEN Wave 2's are elongated, IT means wave 4 will NOT BE
From 8259 we have reached a high of 8575 - a perfect 50% retracement of 310 pts
And they are BANGING upon that line in the SAND RIGHT NOW at NOON
thus matching the SPX 930 high ALSO at the same time

SOOOO
Whats NEXT ??
Today has been pegged by E ZONE as a critical day - not sure what that means-
but it looks like [[IMO a]]] HUGE TURN IS ABOUT TO HIT

And that can ONLY BE the start of wave 3
Dow targets are 7972 to as low as 7560

What intersting is MANY are projecting MID JULY for that event, and I have projected that
also BUT changed in NOW to JULY9th as of yesterday comments

Yes July 15th has some negative connotations , but I dont think its going to be the LOW
I see July15 as a setback in a rally to Jul22nd as a high

More about this later
Its TOO FAR ahead and NO one remembers what I wrote, except me, and sometimes I forget
Jay