You can plainly see the SPX wants to TOUCH the UPPER LINE at 970This is the same 25 day chart I posted a couple weeks ago, and projected spx 950 at that time
eveyone groaned that day [g], but HERE we are just 10 days later
ITS NOW 113days from the FEB 6th high to high
110 days to 115 days Maxes out
115 tr days = the 23rd
more later
Jay
43 comments:
I was HOPING to catch a little dip this week BEFORE the bigger decline NEXT WEEK
But It doesnt look like I will get that chance.
THE CHART shows 970 as the UPPER line and we are at 954
16 pts = dow 128 pts and just enuf to get back to 9050 MATCHING January
BUT the DOWNSIDE holds FAR greater potential, even tho it will be VERY SHORT LIVED
970 - 870= 100 pts since July 8th.
DO some FIBO math
38% = 380 pts
50% = 500 pts
62% = 620 pts
WOW, that was easy
now all thats left is the action
I have been adding shorts each day, and will add more by the end of the day on the 23rd to be 100% short
On JULY29th at 10:30 we have a 13 day cycle complete SAME AS NOV 21st.
Jay
for what its worth,the delta cycles i study to help my own market timing,point to a top either the first or the 3rd week in august.im thinking along the lines of tomorrow/thursday being the end of what looks like a wave 3 then down until the 28th ish in w4before the "real" top and the end of 5.
Hi Jay...
Just a stupid question...is 10:30 on the 29th Eastern time?
Hi Jay...
I'm confused...Are you saying you expect the S&P to go down 380 or more points in a week?
you had one zero too many on your fibo retrace. Obviously you meant 38 and NOT 380, and so on.
If we are done with (iv) at 943.22 low, (v)= (i) at 961.7 can be a target and can be reached as early as 22nd. Higher target (v)= 1.618* (i) at 973.2.
If we sell off early 22nd, we can finish a (iv) triangle just above 943.22 and have targets not too different, but that may fit better with your timing idea of top on 23rd.
The detailed level small waves are not too clear, but we are very near the top of the 5 waves up from 869. A simpler approach to target for top is to think of the mid point of the big gap as the middle of the entire move. That gives about 914.5+ (914.5-869) = 960.
Ravi
Guys, it comes down to how well certain well known market indicator companies do via their earning anouncements. I must say if the market does peak on Thurs July 23 EST NY time and retrace till Aug 1st then BAM, Jay/Ravi you guys know your stuff brothers
Take care
Joe
Jay, Ravi and others,
What do u guys think about QQQQ. It may have peaked. Do u think its a good short when it reaches 38.5
Waiting for 'flash fusion' CIT of 7/22 lasting to 7/24. It looked like he was on target for awhile so I played the short side for these 2 days. We'll see.
Anon with flash fusion, u did not post ur name, etc. Jay likes it when u post ur name or register
CIT may not follow rest of the market for its being black sheep. It all depends how the investors see it and how the company is salvaged. Any positive news will lift up but chances are bleak for now.
pk
Reza:
The major CIT for QQQQ and SPX would generally align together, with few exceptions where say one makes a marginal new hi and the other does not.
Since SPX represents a broader market, I stick to that; except for taking into account in non-confirmation between SPX and QQQQ or DJI as another indicator.
If early AM hi today was good for shorting QQQQ, it was also good for shorting SPY. Right now, looks like we have been working on some kind of wave (iv) triangle, when that is over, we should expect to make one last higher hi to complete five waves of A before correcting down in B by say 35 to 60 points in SPX.
Ravi
Jay Ravi, what is your projected target for wave iv pull back today? 950? 942? 935?
Jay how do the power and activity index look today? What is the down bar time?
sam
after 8 sounds about right- thanks
Yes Ravi -i meant 38 pts
or DOW x 8 = 304 pts
ETC
ANON
As Reza wrote, please ID yourself
or join as a member -
ANON
FLASH is my friend and He often confers with my analysis via a yahoo group and email
I HAVE BEEN POSTING JULY 22/23rd now for weeks,
WHY do you refer to someone sles dates??
AND YES - I ALWAYS use Eastern TIME
Mkt is following the Activity index
IT was UP to 600 early
fell to 200
back up to 500
NOW on the SKIDS at 200, but moving up a bit to 266 at noon to 1pm
PROPENS index shows a COLLAPSE late today and agrees with a low tomorrow AM at 150 bars and Merc 135 Uranus AT 11am
NOTE NOTE NOTE
BIG DECLINES WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEXT WEEK
Jay
Thnaks Jay
sam
Sam:
Wave e of (iv) targets around 948. But the waves and the triangle are muddy, so I won't bet on it.
Ravi
Sam:
Sorry, wrote that before checking the latest. Does not look like triangle anymore to me. Yes, it was muddy.
Ravi
Thanks ravi and Jay
Jay,
are you staying with peak tomorrow. or is the peak today before 2:30?
Jay,
You always answer the Multitude of questions so diplomatically. Good for you. Hope everyone appreciates it.
Arak
I love your questions
MY crystal ball doesnt work that way
I can only make an educated guess whether or not we have topped at 957 as of yesterday.
and MY guess is probably as good as yours
HOWEVER
there might be one more attempt today at 3pm today
11:15 am was a high
12;50 pm was a higher high @959.60
so following that train of thought, IT would suggest that 3pm would also be a higher high
DOW now catching DOWN to the lower spx of yesterday
but also hit its highs at the same times 11& 1
I'll repeat it
MY work suggests a substantial LOW tomrrow at 11am, with a recovery at the close
THIS IS NOT YET corroborated by
the DAILY PROPENSITY INDEX
I dont have complete details fro Friday yet, but it looks like a DOWN DAY
more later
Jay
I dont know some of you have NOT caught on to the HOURLY game
I realize that CNBC has been broadcsting the mkt for 25 years they STILL have NO F'n idea whats next;
but we here follow a different standard, and that means you as members of this elite group of traders;
UNREAL
its NOW2;40, and the SPX is going to make that ONE MORE RUN at 3pm
ITS AMAZING to watch this
Im planning to ADD more shorts at 3pm
Jay
it really looks like 1pm was teh HOD and that should HOLD
this next attempt at 3pm looks like a triple top for today & yesterday at 957
obviously there is NO volume to push it any higher. thus selling will overtake buying and supply will conquer demand
Jay
how stupid of me i am so involved with cit stock for past days that whereever i see CIT i think its that stock:)
pk
Jay, should we jump in with short or wait till tomorrow
Thanks jay I too bot some more at 957 right on time at 3 Pm. you are hot Jay.
sam
Reza,
How many times did I mention 3pm today??
IM in 60% short for tomrrows 11am LOW
Jay
Thanks Jay. I am in
Jay
Can you post your index numbers for Thursday, Fri 23,24 and coming Mon, Tues 27,28 if possible.
Those are very easy for dimwits like me to get.
Reza can I contact you?
pk
Jay, as I understand you are going to analyze further to confirm that tomorrow 11 AM is a good exit for shorts as the rest of the day may inch up and try new high.
Or you thinking of holdin on the shorts for the next week down days?
Thanks
Sam
Jay:
Looks like the drop to 943.22 on Tuesday completed the shallowest of (iv); and we have been doing a diagonal 5th since then having completed or close to have completed the fourth within that. (The idea of of fourth wave triangle, with 970ish target,, died one we made higher hi today)
This would imply that we go up to 11, NOT DOWN, tomorrow AM to 960-962 area to complete the upmove from 869. This is more in line with your earlier timing work of a top tomorrow 11ish , if I recollect it right.
.
That would be 91-93 points up. Fibo will then be 35, 45, 55 points down to 927, 917, 907 area. I do not see 970.
My gut says we may not get below 927. Let us see.
Ravi
Hi Ravi,
You said you don't think the market would get to 927. What time frame are you talking about?
Thanks.
Hi Unidentified Anon:
I did not say that we will not get to 927. I said may not get below 927...ie to 917 or 907 target,
I have no time frame for B wave down , but it should be 38 to 62 % of about 10 days up, or 4 to 6 trading days.
Ravi
We got a hanging man yesterday and now a doji that is setting up at key res at 956. The candles are narrowing so were topping on the S&P. My plan was to sell Friday but I am Closing Longs tomorrow, dont want to be greedy........ We just cant close above 956. I really thought OIL would go up a tad more and bring the TSX/SP markets with it.
Hangsang up 2%, EUR-USD also up, shd be a good open Thurs, lets see if mrkt closes higher and hits 960, it makes sense that we do. OIL is also up and probably will test 66.50. Anyhow, lets see what happens, I still believe it comes down to how well the mrkt acts on these earnings from major market leaders and what the EUR-USD does, along with OIL.....
Target of diagonal 5 is 961.13 for ideal textbook perfect symmetry. Reality may involve a slight thrust over that.
Ravi
Where did the big Gap-up, go this morning on the futures?
plk
Far too much optimism for the market to go up in any significant way. The next big move is clearly down. I suspect it will be earlier than next week as Jay is indicating
John
John
I think Jay mentioned next week will drop and then up the following week and the big drop after aug 9 as posted charts by Jay
F*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************KKKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
huk
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