Monday, June 11, 2012

Stock Market Timing Forecast- Whats Next !! was Today's open the last hurrah for June??

SPX  may have 2 scenarios this week, and neither one is very bullish.

ITS very likely today's OPEN was the TOP of wave 2,
meaning that June4th low at 1267 was wave 1.

BUT here's an alternate view- that considers wave2 unfinished.
Wave "a" of 2 retrace to 1335 ,  was 68 pts which then  = 68/155 -
44% of the decline from 1422 to 1267 =155 above the 38% level @1326

A true Gann - Fibo retrace of 50% to 55% could have taken the SPX to 1345 or 1352,
and still has potential to reach those levels by June19th. - note the FOMC announcement is on
June 20th. The April 25th announcement occurred within a rising trend to a May1st secondary top
at 1415. Then May sold off all month to that June4th low at 1267- aka wave 1

NOTE that the Greek elections are occurring on Sunday June17th amongst mildly positive energy
thus giving them a good chance of success in that endeavor, allowing the mkts to follow thru to a June19th high.
IF today's high at 1335 is only wave "a" of 2, the "b" of 2 could settle back to 1292
which then leaves the door open for "c" of 2 to the above noted higher levels at 1345 to 1352.

There is a strong warning that follows the finish of wave 2.
Its called wave 3, and most traders know that such an event means a strong SPIKE DOWN when
it occurs within a declining phase.

AS such, WAVE 3 would then be expected from June22nd to July3rd
which could take the SPX to 1175 or lower

Here's the Elliott MATH for wave 3 as a multiple of wave 1 to either 
1.38% X 155 = 214 pts from 1350 = 1136
1.62% X 155 = 250pts from 1350 =1100

EITHER WAY< no matter how low the market goes by JULY3rd, 
it WILL BE CONSIDERED A MELT DOWN by the media and most market participants

& get ahead of the market




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