another WILD WEEK AHEAD

This is going to be just like last week - VERY DIFFICULT for investors
We, as traders are also going to have a rough time caching the swings 
if they follow anywhere near whats projected

However, ive got a few things to add

Monday Nov 17th is a LARGE fibo convergence and the 
10.22 day segment of the 13 day cycle hits on TUESDAY
at NOON along with a usual LOW bar cycle at 204 bars
So there is a good convergence right there
THAT CYCLE DID STRIKE at NOON on friday for the LOD, not counting the close
SO<>

 Now, heres some more
17 in numerology is an 8 = power
18 in numerology is a 9 = an ENDING
19 in numerolgy is a 1 = a NEW BEGINNING
20 = 2 =congenial
21 = 3 = speculation


Heres more
Astro readings
Nov 17 = CAUTION with ALL activities & watch your blind sport
Nov 18 = Intuition is unreliable
Nov 19 = DONT BE MISLEAD - true intentions are hidden
Nov 20 = congenial day , BUT DISRUPTIVE AT NIGHT
Nov 21 = GET chores done EARLy

NOW into minute / micro wave 5 of MINOR 3 as both Jerry R & Ibo seem to agree, 
even if  labeling is a little different, the outcome should be the same

SPX levels at 785 and 754 Murrey Math do see viable for the lows.
LOWS here DON not appear to want to drag on, but IF they follow the XTIDE as
ASRO seems to suggest for the open of the 21st, then we will see some wild 
swings once more.


SUMMARY, IMO, 
Monday DOWN ALL DAY and Tuesday low at NOON SHOULD mark an important low as 
above
After a good recovery on Tuesday, the 4 day cycle at the end of the day could 
drag it down as xtide shows.
19th has potential for lows at at 11;45 & 2;15 as per 90 day cycle low from July 
15- barcycle also@ noon
20th looks positive as xtide shows
21st looks like XTIDE has it nailed

Jay

NOT JUST YET

Ive posted several times
NOV 17th
55 -110 - 89- 144-233-280 tr day cycles

It seem to me thats THE 22/44 wk CYCLE time slot

BUT the Astro reading for Nov 19th indicates a fake out day
meaning the next move from there is UP & AWAY

Arms index today was .23 similar to Oct28th
TECHNICAL internal data is very similar to Nov 4th,
and has issued a SELL SIGNAL

Since the CYCLE low is due on Monday
we should expect some serious selling tomorrow

IF you think the market is going to RUN to the moon with everyone applauding, you've got a rude awakening coming

The market will do everything in its power to confuse the many, AND THAT MEANS YOU

some are still looking as low as 750 spx, and some even lower
I think we might get to spx 800 & dow 8000 on close
with an intraday low as low as 7880, which was the oct10 intrday lows
Got to spx 818 and dow 7966
Spx fell its double allotment of 2 x 40 = 80 pts from 898 = 819

NOw from
spx 911 - 80 = 831 - 31 murrey math - 800 butt he actual murrey math level is 785 which should provide support
dow @ 8835- 930 pts = to last weeks drop = 7905

Some are already pointing to Nov 26th for a lower low- what I say to them ~~ FORGET ABOUT IT !!
Some are still looking for spx at 750 area and dow at 7200 - WHAT I SAY TO THEM - Yeh you guessed it -- DITTO

So there we have some numbers to look for
Jay

LOWS of 2008

Its beginning to look like the LOW of 2008 should occur on Nov 17th

Ive mentioned it b4 and reminder that there is a large convergence of
FIBO dates plus its 280 tr days from Oct 9th,2007

that means Nov 19th is 280 tr days from Oct11,2007
THATS 35 segments of 8 tr days

the 13 day cycle of which there is a 78.6% segment hitting at 11am to noon on the 18th should mark an important low
after the clsoe on the 17th.

In 1987 as an example
Oct 25th was the NYSE closing LOW
Dec 5th, MONDAY was 28 days later for a LOWER close.

From there it was up and away for the first 13 days, which for us would get us to DEc 8th, and astro would agree with that projection

Jay

Nov 19th

On Nov 19th, preliminary bar cycles

259b Low @ 10am
30 b @ 12:30
329 b @ 3;30

there is a lunar square Sun at 4;31 pm
which is the Qtr moon

So it is possible for the low to occur LATE in the day
Planning for that type of event takes thought and strategy

Most likely I will be in CASH the on the close of the 17th or open on
18th where 180 bars hits at 4pm on 17th or open on 18th.

that way i can BUY CALLS during the day at various low points.

Best for Now
Jay

Potential Panic SELL OFF

A panic SELL OFF looks IMMANENT and could occur at any moment

Its NOW 9:45 on Tuesday Nov 11 and the Dow is off 181

Power index is DOWN ALL WEEK and Continues to drag into next Week.

Activity index is FLAT LINE At 1.3

Pressure readings are HIGH in the 3025 area, but could drop at any moment, and so far the mkt is NOT showing any response to those highs, but a potential rebound does exist for the 12th, as mentioned b4.

I was given Nov 19th lows at 11:30 & 1:30, but I will not have a good reading for the bar count until this Friday, 14th.
ID - How did you arrive with those time periods?

So far the reading stands for the 19th- DO NOT BE CAUGHT up in Negative sentiment
When the MEDIA professes NO BOTTOM< you can be sure we are there- IV'E watched it b4 on CNBC

The 17th is still the target for a closing low as it has a convergence of Fibo dates and is also 280 tr days from Oct 9th.
280/8 = 33 segments of 8 tr days

More later
Jay

minuette 4th waves

A change in perspective might be in order right NOW

Im not looking for THE Jerry R low of LOWS on Nov 19th,
HOWEVER I am looking for a low on NOV 14th and or 17th

17th has fibo convergences including a 280 tr day off
Oct9th, 2007

The 14th is an 8 day LOW
While the 17th is an 9 day turn

I dont have bar counts yet, as I like to get a
little closer to the actual day to confirm the correct count

There is a midnite low tide on the 12th,
but full moon also a little after at 1:19am
and secondary low tide at 3pm on the 14th

What does that all mean for Nov 19th?
good question

IMO, it means a significant TURN day
leading to a significant high on DEC 1st.

In fact, it may be that OCT 27th spx at 848
might have been the LOW of 2008

I do Have DEc 12/15th as another low period,
but NOT necessarily LOWER than oct27th

It may also be we are in a period of an UPWARD
trend to Mid FEB eclipses, thus we would be making
higher highs and HIGHER lows along the way.

We MUST CAUTION ourselves
NOT TO GET CAUGHT UP IN NEGATIVE sentiment,
and not look for a crash at this point to drop
under the spx 850 already established on oct27th.


Jay

minuette 4th waves

minuette 4th waves within a minor 3rd can be temp high risers and very misleading as to the real trend

I think thats whats due today

Heres another look at where we are now.

Jay

Elliott wave 5

I would appear that wave 5 of 3 of 3
has begun from the Nov4th high

So what do we as a group think about wave 5:3:3
I do agree with JERRY R @ 100% about Nov 19th
and Ive written the reason several times as well
as my outlook for Nov 17th FIBO CLUSTER

They have gained on close 1450 dow points on Nov 4th
How does that relate to Elliott rules?
Heres the QUESTIOn
Will Nov 17 to 19 AS WAVE 5 be MORE SEVERE than wave 3 on oct 27th
OR will they match the dow 8175 low of Oct 27th?

Assuming, and I think we can do this,
wave 1 dropped 930 pts on the 5th & 6th
then wave 2 should really hold at + 355 = dow 9050 or 38.2%
Then wave 3 of 3 of 5 should hit ON NOV 13th to 17th, IMO,

HOW LOW IS LOW from that point?
930 pts can be matched from 9050 would = 8120 AND yes, very likely
IF 1.618 x 930 = 1505 = dow @ 7545

thats A little more than the 2002 at 7200
VERY POSSIBLE for the 17th

Nov 19th might actually go down intraday to
touch or get damn close to 7200
We have 11:30am and 1:30 pm as time slots.

Best wishes
Jay

Nov 7th - Bradley date

We have already had the 800 pt loss or more that I wrote about earlier this week - WOW what a call !!
if I dont say so myself

Have not been able to post much this week , dealing with a loss in the family

BUT now what?

As the heading says, Bradley today should mark a short term low, with the 12th next and that should be a high

Futures indicate a higher open regardless of the jobs report, but Thats STILL an hour away from this writing

Power index pointed toward the decline this week, thus my ealier posting for 800 pts loss
Today it shows a higher open and subsequent collapse

Activity index was at 4.3 earlier this AM, but has since dropped to 1.3 at 7am - not sure how that will play out once the mtk opens



CYCLES
Bradley low
4.08 day cycle at 11am
156 bar cycle at 11am
38% segment of 13 day at 11:30

FTSE today made a midday low = to 1pm today in the USA
Charts edge has today languishing

Any low today should be met with a moderate rebound next week into the 12th, and Im still expecting the 13th to 19th to meet that 22/44 wk LOW that Jerry R has written about

17th HAS
55 - 89 - 110- 144- 233 & 280 tr days convergence
last convergence on 4th was a high, thus this one should be a low

the reading for the 19th, most imnportant, and Ive brot this to your attention in the past.
DO NOT FOLLOW THE CROWD
In other words, do not get suked in by NEGATIVE talk and sentiment
GO THE OTHER WAY- mkt intentions are WELL HIDDEN

Jay

A Second LOOK

This could be a little tricky the next 2 weeks
Reason is : the REVERSE correction off the LOWS on Oct 27th MIGHT NOT BE FINISHED
So we might only get a fibo drop to possible interim lows between 8176 & 9325
1150 pts gained or 1300 if counting intrday - ahh fibo, love it
could, and should get as low as 800 pts dow- (((62%)))

Then it becomes matter of when
Nov 4th at 11am has potential as the 84.5 hour cycle low point
Nov 7th also has some potential as the convergence of the 4day cycle at 10am
OR Nov 7th at 11:30am  a fibo segment of the 13 dy cycle

From there it appears UPward to Nov 12th, which could possibly make a higher high then
oct31st.
thats also an 8 day HIGH TO HIGH cycle

THEN Casey lowers the boom on the opne of the 13th, MY BDAY, and Nov 19th
Nov 19th has 22/44 cycle lows as per Jerry R
also is a 78.6% or 66 hr cycle low to hit at 12:25pm
is also a 4 day cycle low at 11 am

Jay

WATH THIS ONE

there is a 13 day ((84.5 hrs cycle)) AND an 8 day ((52 hours cycle))) running concurrently

YOu know about the 13 day cycle, which ive mentioned many times
ITS NOW due to hit at 11am on NOV 4th

But prior to that event is the 8 day/ 52 hr cycle

Heres the dates
SPt 29th

OCT 10th which was a CLOSING low on the 9th , Yom Kippur day, - 678,
The NEXT morning opened DOWN another 700 pts on Oct 10 & closed off 128

NEXT
Oct 21st at close was - 232 and Oct 22 opened down 700 and closed off 514

NOW we come to
Oct 31st at 4pm,and Nov 3rd at OPEN

SO< now you know what to expect and it should be very volatile

best for NOW
Jay

Election day Crash??

Nothing to do with ELECTIONS at all

early data

Polarity negative
VHF hitting high notes >20
jaywiz index = .48
Power index drops from 500 today to 300 on friday
Pressure ON THE WAY DOWN from 3020 to 2995
Activity index NOW under 2 but had hit 5 mid day today
Flux VERY HEAVY under 900

The SLOPE of HOPE is showing its bear claws

Nov 4th convergence of LOWS
22/44 wk LOWS on Nov 17/19
Could be the MAJOR LOW of the year

More later
Jay

NOV 2008

Nov has some very important CYCLE convergences

Nov 4th = 55/89/110/144 trade days from Previous fibo turns

Nov 17/19 also has 55/89/110/144/280 tr days from previous points of reference

the last one 280 tr days is important from oct9th, 2007
280 days / 8 = 35

Oct28th a Bradley date & new moon
Nov 7th and 12th are next Bradley dates

Nov 4th is ALSO 84.5 hrs from Oct16th dow @ 8200 at 11am
84.5 hours is Nov 4th At 11am
Its also 204 bars on one cycle and 330 on another

Consider the 28th as intervening wave X

Whats Next?
is the next decline phase of the 22/44 week cycle as described by one of our Yahoo group associates to be of Extreme importance
I dont have the Elliott grpahs at this point, but If I get them i will post.

More later
best for now
Jay

Oct 28th

Its only 5pm, and I dont have all the data yet, but

Tomorrow is a new moon after close
3;31 pm low tide

847 is Murrey Math and any break below that with volume would infer the next level at 816
In dow terms = 7900

Today's closing low hit right at 46.5 hrs = 55% of the 84.5 hr cycle
Also a 27 hr cycle low

Some have indicated it as a short term low, and that is possible, but friday's intraday low @ 8200 is broken

Wed will be over due for strong rebound which should may or may not hold its highs
Friday the 31st has another chance to run it up, but it looks like it will fold after 3:30

Jay

Still Under Pressure

Bradley date is reported by some as the 27th and others as the 28th

new moon on 28th after close would indicate the 28th, IMO.

Polarity is negative
Jaywiz index has last week's readings as negative @ 29-23-16-40

Power index gaps down from 500 sunday night to 400 Monday and stay's flat
Power index for Tuesday drops to 350
Power index for Wed opens at 350, but jumps up to 500, indicating a lower open & rebound

Flux today is LOW And Jagged at 900
Activity is FLAt at the 1 level

Pressure
FUTURE readings are @ 2965 pointing toward a low on the 28th
Current readings are off the lows at 2965 up to 3010 , but are jagged indicating some erratic activity

Tidal index shows a LOW on 27th, but could be a day early as it also showed the 21st as a high, but it was the 20th.
In other wairds, its damn close but not exact

My outlook calls for LOWER but choppy thru the open on the 29th at 10:45am, then UP for the day
30th goes well
BIG rally on 31st
Jay

Uh OH !!!

I have to say I did NOT see that coming

Some of my pressure readings fell off during the night, but I didnt see see those until 6am EDT

New moon on 28th
potential 24th -27 crash days

Fed days 28/29th
Emergency meeting ?? Maybe get the rate cut on Tuesday instead of Wed,

27 hr cycle due on Oct 27th at 4pm
today is 8 day turn and dow futures are limit down 550

5% limit futures, but extend after open to 10%

spx to 855 open could rebound to 875 for 10am, but after it should be a crash day

some so called experts are expecting the OPEN to be the LOW of the session???
My sources say that wont be the case

Bradley date of Oct 20-21 topped off to next date on the 27-28th

Jay

Friday Oct 23

Still expect a spurt at the open, and might get to
SPX 940
Dow 8925

Even IF they dont get there, the morning spurt to 10am and or 10:30 might be all there is
wherever that takes it to as above

The 42.5 hr low is due to hit at noon on Monday, but the day might settle a little higher

Today, I got out of the calls i bot at close on Wed, and bot more at about 2;40
High made it at 11am and there was a lunar45 to mercury
Mild rebound at 2pm = a noon 120 Pluto
BUT plunge right after at 2:30 there was a 150 bar cycle low and it was the LOD
next bar cycle is at 11:30 friday so theres plenty of time in between to make a high.

Jay

Oct 23

Not such a great Up day after all

YES- Should blast out of the gate, but STALL midday

and might even settle back to close at open

Friday promises to be STRAIGHT UP ALL DAY

Jay

Oct 22 update

LOW at 4pm
dow 8450
SPX has broken 909 and should hold above 878

Tomrrow rebounds out of the gate and is on an upswing till Monday Oct 27th

Jay.

Oct 22nd

Reasons for a short term LOW today

Today is
55/110 tr days from previous highs=
jaywiz index = .29 yesterday
PC ratio = .87 on top of .81 Monday
Today is a BRADLEY date
21.12 hour low hits at noon

Flux index = 1020 , on the low side
pressure index = 2990, ditto

Activity was FLAT all night at 2/3
BUT has jumped at 9 am to a 2
there is a 60 minute delay on this, and it means an OPENING Low will be wiped out by a rebound @ 10am

BUT once again, the above indicates a lower low at Noon and lower by 4pm

TOMRROW- Thursday, indicates a LOWER open, till 10:30 at 90 bars, and then it reverts to UP all day

Jay

Tomrrow Oct 22

Brief note

Since the 258 bar cycle closed the dow at its lows, then we could see an early AM pop till 10 am

Futures at 7pm are positive + 750 and fair value is -330 giving us a potential 80 pts rally

however as mentioned, the 12 noon hr is the first segment of the 13 day dominant cycle

So, any open higher is a great opp to add puts, and so would the 3pm rebound high- cant say which will be best, but i will probably go for the 10 am time.

Jay

As predicted

Opened down 250, rebounded at 2;30 to + 15, then DOWN again to -250

Tomorrow has a 38.2% portion of the 13 day cycle due to hit at noon, then the 50% segment is on the 27th@12;45

the EXACT 13 day cycle as ive posted b4 is on NOV 4th- election day

Todays closed as expected on the 258 bar cycle at 4pm, but since the 13 day segment above is over riding, we can still expect a lower low at noon. Rebound into 3pm from there should give way to another dive at the close. Its going to be a lower low and lower high each step of the way down.

Jay

POINT 26 or 27

I would think that point 26 is obviously oct 10th
that means we are still in a rebound mode OFF that point , Prior to the REAL CRASH coming to a neighborhood near you very soon-- ALAH Nov 4th

That Dec 12th date should be a retest of the Nov 4th lows

There is another TIME ZONE of importance - Nov 13 to 19th which could also test or exceed the previous lows-
there is an important 22/44 wk cycle due there

Todays close should be exciting for the bulls, but tomorrows open should remove their enthusiasm.
However, there is still a higher high coming on the 21st.

120 Bar cycles today @ 11am got an 11;10 LOW
150 bar cycle @ 1:30 shoul set the next important day low
180 bar cycle is due at 4pm & or 9:30am Tuesday
Heres the rub
IF they close on a HIGh today, the 180 bar cycle will hit at open and be down at least 200 dow pts
BUt the PRessure readings have ALREADAY shown me that-

Jaywiz Pressure readings have jumped from 2990 to 3029 for Tuesday
They then FALL to 3012 so far for WEd

This confirms my previous projections

Now lets watch to see how the mkt responds.

Jay

WHERE ARE WE ?/

DOES THIS SAY IT ALL or not.
We are AT 27
Jay

Bear Market Rallies

that END on Monday's are very very dangerous

Most of my associates and the data they and I keep are pointing toward a high on Monday

It may be over by noon, and the rest of the week just cascades low, or its possible to close at its mid day highs.

However from there, it gets tricky;

Which of the BIGGEST corporations is in big trouble, and might come knocking on Uncle Sam's door for a bailout??
AND then who;s NEXT??
How many companies can the big guy handle??

reminds me of the first Superman movie: Lois falls off the roof, and Superman catches her as he says"dont worry, ive got you" And She SCREAMS -- " BUT WHOSE GOT YOU"

Well Uncle Sam, is China, Japan, England, France, coming to our rescue? or are they tapped out also?

I can see the smiles on the faces of BinLaden and Iran pres, can't spell his name, and some of our other not so friendly foes. GRRR. makes me want to Puke

Osama didnt have to do anything after all, we did it to ourselves.

Vix and jaywiz index still showing oversold conditoins which migh get alleviated on Monday with a final push back over spx 1000, but theres NO LEGS to it.

THE NEXT CRASh zone starts on the 23th and or 24th and ENDS on Nov 4th
nothing to do with ELECTIONS - ONLY the cycles & electromagnetic influences

talk about the CRASH PROTECTION Team, this will put a whole new light on it.

Remember I told you to expect the last crash day Monday October 6th, which turned into a week.
Dow 7000 is NOT far away, and maybe 6000 from some people ive read.

Jay

Oct 17

Futures point LOWEr as indicated YESTERDAY

10am = 89 hr & 30 bar low

High at close today and higher at open monday

Jay

Friday Oct 17

THE 84.5 HOUR cycle hit at 11:15 and then the mkt ran up to the close

A secondary LOW might occur tomorrow at 9:45am, but the day looks
higher in a possible monster short squeeze back to spx 1000

Jay

October 16th, 2008

Even tho its 7pm EDT and the Spoos are -1550, there is still indications of a rebound tomorrow

HOWEVER, it looks like it will be VERY SHORT LIVED.

That 84.5 Hr cycle LOW is due between 11 am and 1pm, and could stretch to 4pm

I cant imagine what rabbit they could pull out of the hat in the
AM to give us an open boost of several hundred points,
but thats what the pressure readings are telling me.

ALL of the tech data is screaming BUY, but just like bull runs, the reaction to the data can be delayed.

Arms today was 4.29 and 5 day cumulative= 200.6
5day ave = 10.03
10 day ave = 177.2
Those are BIG numbers

17th then has the best chance for a more solid reaction, but I'll keep you tuned in.

Jay

Low Tomorrow

Im fairly confident we get a tradeable LOW tomrrow

it looked like we got 3 waves DOWN to 2;45; (( amazing how that time slot keeps popping up))

Then it looks like we got a 4th wave to almost even, and maybe started on the 5th Wv DOWN, but that remains to be seen. the Q's traded higher after mkt.

Mathematically we should see 9100 which we did get to at 2:45pm; so then it could be lower than that.
7880 - 9780= 1900 pts X 38.2% = 725
9780 - 725 = 9055

However, 1900X 50% = 950 = dow @ 8830, and I suspect that might be the target for tomorrow.

As indicated b4, It looks like Ths & Fri are UP and could be quite a run to 10k

They want everyone to think its safe to go back in the water. HMMmm.

Everything I wrote b4 about the upcoming Nov 4th election day is still out there and it could be one very historic day for sure . NO matter who wins, the stock market WILL REbound.

NOV 4th = Some very heavy duty astro on 3rd & 4th; and even more important it is also a 13 tr days cycle.
PLUS fibo convergence @ of 55 - 110 -89- & 144 tr day cycle

SO, if we start 8 days before such as Oct 1st to 10th; that gives us October 24th.
The Bradely date is oct 22nd = 10 tr days which becomes a more obvious chioice for a short term TOP,
or a MAJOR turning date DOWN to the Culmination point of nov 4th.

SOO, based on the above , NO - I do not expect Oct20th to CRASH
but if anything changes, you'll be the first to know

Thats it for now

Jay

FUTURES Up

Looking for a 250 pts dow higher open, but then what ?

A set back is in order from there.
I will be buying puts after the open at 9:45 to 10:00am

Just like 1987 there was a very strong rebound the day after, and subsequent decline which at that point did set a new closing low, but I doubt we will see such a decline this week.

Some are looking for a crash like wave to continue NEXT WEEK, but Im holding off my thoughts on that until I see more scientific and tech data later this week

Jay

As Promised

A week ago I told you to expect a 1000 pt rally today- NEED I SAY MORE?

WILL the FUN continue ? Only if your a bear

NOt all my tech data is in yet, but the OVERSOLD condition is NO MORE

Tomorrow promises to take some away & continue lower bias thru Wednesday

but Thursday & friday do appear UPWARD again

BOY, that was some payday- DOW +936pts - WOW

Tomrrow is an 8 day TURN and a BRADLEY turn, so any opening high should be considered a selling opp- at least thats the way I expect to work the day

That 66 hr cycle hit with the 259 bar cycle @ 2:30, and it was LL UP& away from there to the close.

CME close UNCH, -- HMMM.

Jay

Monday Oct 13

Jaywiz index last week 5 day ave = 60
Polarity is positive & holding
Power index up to 500
Activity between 2 & 3
Pressure index = 3050
Flux above mid range at 1040
vhf > 5

All of the above is BULLISH for today

there might be a 1- 2 pm setback, but the close could be the HOD

Some are looking for a 10:30 HIGH and that is typical tie period for such turns

Tomorrow still has some potholes, but Im not going to worry about it, as I doubt a new closing low is possible, and it could offer additional opp to buy cheap calls

Jay

GAP UP MONDAY

BUT it wont last all day

If they thought last week was crazy wait till they see this week- Roller coaster time- UP & down in LARGE swings

Monday should give up its gains to the 10day cycle due to hit between 1:30 and 4 pm

Tuesday should open higher and give up its gains to the full moon at 4pm

Wed looks healthy and should hold its gains

Thursday Has the 13 day cycle low due at 11am to 1pm, but should still close on highs of week

Friday is options- too soon to have outlook, but looks higher

Early science readings

Jaywiz index this week
Mon = 58
Tues = 92
Wed = 42
Ths = 1.28 WOW
Fri= 49
5 day AVE values are bullish @ 60

Power index for Monday =500 to 600 coming off a 300 for friday
Pressure index = 3030 today , coming off lows of 2970
Polarity is NOW positive
Activity which was FLAT line >1 all week has jumped to 5
Flux is steady at 1035

My personal tech data is indicating a bullish trend for next 10 days
ARms 5day = 1.53
Jaywiz Adv Decl ratio = 128
Jaywiz Vol ratio = 119
these 2 indexes are bullish under 400 and they have been UNDER200 for 4 days in a ROW
Trin 5 = 7.95 & trin 10 = 139.1 ~~ both very bullish
And theres more but I wont bore you

IS this a NEW bull market ? You ask. Why do you ask? ive already explained in a previous posting that we still need to get thru NOv 4th and DEc 12th

Remember that a bull market can get overbot for months on end, and as such, so can a bear market.

Best wishes for now
Jay

THRUST

DOW broke UNDER 8000
NDX hit 1201 EXACT target

DOW @ 8000 = 55% FIBO relationship to the 14400 highs of OCT 10th LAST YEAR

NDX also hit its target @ 1201

I got out near the open, but not the exact low, darn it,
I will now sit tight and wait for 3pm

Jay

GAME PLAN

Its 8:30am

The charts show dow 8000 as the base, but could overshoot, or not

IF the mkt drops to dow8000 by 10;30 at 150 bars, then IM OUT
If not, then the next bar cycle is @ 180 at 1pm, then 204 @ 3pm

Ive watched the way they play the game- MAXimum gains come with THRUST such as on Monday
Option values made their highs at 10;45am, and did not supercede those values till 2:45pm & 150 bars that day.

NO MATTER What, I WILL BE OUT OF PUTS at or before 3pm today and into CALLS expecting a huge rally;
Hopefully it doesnt repeat Monday's last hour rally, but it could, since 3pm is 204 bars which IS similar to Monday at 150bars @ 2:45pm

Jay

RALLY COMETH- but NOT this week

Today should attemtp to rally and should reach HOD at 1pm.

However, we still have a very important LOW dead ahead

TOMORROW should close on DOW 8800- FRIDAY OCT 10th

Monday is RALLY DAY and we could get a DOW 1000 pt rebound on the 13th to 17th.

Get ready for it
Some times it takes the TECH DATA 3 to 4 days In OVERSOLD readings b4 the MKT actually responds to it

Giant short squeezes are born in oversold mkts.

BEST WISHES to all for a happy & healthy Yom Kippur

Remember

Jay

Where is the Market Going & Why

I'll try to make this brief and easy to understand

I could just tell you the outcome of my research, but its also good for you to know what Im looking at.

Dow Jones price levels
gain from 2002 to Oct 9th, 2007 = 7200 pts to Dow 14400 - an EXACT DOUBLE

7200 x 38% = dow @ 11,650
7200 X 50% = dow @ 10,800
78.6% = Dow @ 8800
100% = dow @ 7200
Could even go lower, but lets work with this for now

Day count
Oct 10, 2007 to May 19, 2008 = 145 tr days + 145 more = Dec 12th, 2008
Oct 10, 2007 was a NEW MOON
Dec 12th will be a FULL MOON
From oct 11th = 296 tr days / 8 = 37 a whole number
that means there were 37 segments of 8 tr days- I have mentioned this cycle b4.
Low to Low cycle of 13 tr days = 299 segments exact to oct 8th

So where are we and whats next
Oct 14th is a full moon, but the 13 day cycle is on the 16th@ 1pm, and should trade lower

Nov 4th is the NEXT 13 tr days cycle and has a harmonic cluster of HARD ASPECTS converging with the LOW TO LOW cycle - thus we should see a LOW at that point, but not THE LOW

next is Nov 21, but that date falls into a moderate upswing in exact opposition to the chart currently shown by Charts Edge.

Then comes DEC 11th and 12th
11th is the 13 day cycle and 12th is the full moon exactly like Oct 13 & 14
Not only is it a full moon, it also has an even more serious hard aspect harmonic cluster than Nov 4th.


SUMMARY
From here on Oct 8th we are still going to go LOWER
Nov 4th should be a serious LOW TURNING point, BUT again NOT THE LOW
The rest of Nov should be a very strong rebound

Nov 28th -30th should offer a HIGH with some very powerful energy from trines and sextiles of Jupiter, Venus & Uranus

That only leaves DEC 12th for THE LOW - thats the MOST important date for all of 2008.

From there we can enjoy a very strong rebound thru at least the Feb 2009 eclipses.

But the damage will have been severe, and only smart money will enjoy the rallyas most investors will be SHELL SHOCKEd, and or FROZEN in the headlights unable to make intelligent decisions.

Best for now
Jay

Not impressed by ratee cut

9am on Wed oct 8
Futures reversed LOWER by 9am and are as low as they were earlier

Activity index was 2 @ 5am, but dropped to 1 at 7am, and has been FLAT LINE since
Power index today 400 to 450 should still set the 11am low as per Art Cashin- WHO ?? commentator looking for
wash out today- might get a little one

Power index for tomorrow Oct9th = 400 to 350 indicates a lower day
Oct 10th = 350 to 300 LOWER still & astro readings are NOT healthy

Pressure for today hits HIGHS @ 3031 and turn down tomorrow as low as 2977- thats a HUGE drop

Flux smooth and holding above median level @ 1035

VHF no activity at all = 0 usually means an upday
Yesterday for example
started at 0 and we got he open rally
rose to 15 and we dropped to -350
the dropped to 5 and we came back to - 180
then rose to 10, and you know the rest

Jayiwz index = 92, indicates a rally

SUMMARY
So we have the 11am low cycle due, and a possible bounce from there to the end of the day

Jay


Additional reading
MY tech data is GROSSLY over SOLD
TOmorow is a 55 , 110 & 144 tr day fibo cycle hit

NDX retracements
1485 = 50%
1346 = 62%
1104 = 78%

Under 62% which means they are heading for 78%
Elliott wave says this is a 3 of 3 of 3 which is UN RELENTING
The see oct 16 to 28th as low

My 13 day cycle hits on the 16th at 1pm
Guess what,, the next 13 day cycle low hits on, YEP you guessed it Nov 4th
then ALSO as mentioned b4, there is another 13 day cycle due to hit on DEc 11th where there is a serious harmonic convergence of hard astro with a full moon

NO let up in sight for this mkt and dow jones 7200 is NOT out of the question
Jay

RATE CUT

it 7:30am on Wed and guess what

a RATE CUT

Only Fed funds rate, but thats where the $$$ is

Global mkts exploding- not waiting for 11;30am

Jay

ONE DAY TOO EARLY

All of my data is screaming BUY
I wont get into it- too much detail.
Jaywiz index .92

Readings were off by one day also- they flipped days on me.
in other words, Tues & wed are reversed, so tomrrow calls for fortunate trends even tho it was printed for Tuesday

Only one thing stands in the way of a very strong rebound- a rate cut of at least 50 bp, &
the 50% cycle of the 13 day day/ 84.5 hr cycyle NOW due at 66 hours tomorrow @ 11;30
the 259 bar cycle is also due to hit at 11am, and together they should mark a strong turn

Thursday is Yom Kippur and just like Rosh Hashanah, it should be a solid rally day.
not for that reason, however. BUt there is a VEUNS TRINE URANUS at midnite on the 9th which OFTEN precedes major crashes, which will become more likely once this rally is done.

bradley date = 14th
8 day Low
Full moon @ 4pm, etc.
9 month cycle low
Jay

FUTURES Up

Its now 9:15 and futures are strongly higher

glad i bot in yesterday, even tho I didnt hit the LOD
I can only blame myself for not catching the LOD- Its amazing how one little piece of data becomes sooo important

Looks like a 10am -10;15am high
& a 10:45 am setback, which I will probably add to my current position unless I sell it at 10am.

Europe to raise bank deposits protection

Jay

UP Up and away

BUT not for very long

thanks for the praise- tell all your friends and more

I'll try NOT to let it go to my head

the $20K payday was satisfaction for me, and I had a fitful weekend until Sunday Night CME futures

Todays action should peak out between 3 & 4pm
Bernanke at 1pm today

Futures right now at 9AM are now pointing a little lower
150 Bars cycle hit exactly at 2:45 the LOD

The NEXT critical point is 180 bars AT 10:45 am - the mkt might NOT adhere to the lower futures, and might open to a 10am high before settling back to 10:45am

Either way, 10:45 should be the BUY and could be the LOD leading to a strong rally till late afternoon
TOO bad there was such a strong rally after 2:45 yesterday as the rebound would have been more impressive today.

Jay

How LOW is LOW

Its now 2pm, and the deterioration continues past 1pm

Expecting the dow to close at 9550 & spx at 1005-1010

Tomorrow can rebound with great vigor

Wed nesday is not as strong a day as it has an important low due @ 11;30, but can take off from there.

that leads us to the 9th & its 55 tr days from jly23rd High & 110 tr days from May6th high. should be short term HIGH.

the 10th looks ROUGH and leads to the Full moon low of the 14th.
Lower than TODAY??
I dont think so.

Jay

when to buy CALLS

I will be buying calls at todays' close

1pm low
rebound higher after
LOD at 4pm

Jay

Pressure building for a rebound

Todays LOW is DUE at 1pm - SUN 90 Jupiter is a major influence @ 1pm

Also marks 329 bars @ 1pm

Jaywiz indicators are warning a LOW is near & a rebound is close by

Hadik shows 10,023 near term DOW target, then 9870- Possible BOTh could get hit today?

The LOWEr the better today

Astro reading for today = look for non intelligent decisions, caution travel, opinions clash.

Tomorrow Oct 7th = OPPOSITE OF YESTERDAY- get the GO AHEAD SIGNAL

Wed = promising & watch for conflicts

Wed still has a low due at 11:30 am but its only a setback low.

Pressure readings are POPPING where they hit lows on Friday @ 2955 , are now hitting the 3035 levels

VHF now @ 5
power index = 300
Activity index = 1, @ 8am- down from 3 earlier
FLUX smooth at 1035, just above the median

Important low today followed by the mkt clawing its way back up to late Oct peak.

Jay

50% SHORT @ 3:30

the heading says it all
Get ready for the worst on monday
Jay

Rebound today, BUT

Today's rebound might last till noon

should sell off going into vote @ 2pm- WAVE related selling;

Power index shows rally at close and open on Monday with strong selling Monday afternoon

50% of 13 day cycle indicates a low on the 8th at 11am, and pwer index agrees with that outlook.

Jay

GOT IT

OK, that was right on schedule

Very good $$$ day

bot a few calls on close

Tomorrow should OPEN Higher, but I dont see any sticking power. may sell off at close.

I sold out my puts at close today and will rebuy positions during the day tomorrow.

Still expecting the 6th and 7th to provide potential mini crash

More on that later.

Jay

And so it was written

Jaywiz Indicators are negative today

Polarity is negative
VHF a Whopping 25
Power index = a GAP from 500 yesterday to 300 today
Pressure index = 2955
Activity jumper to a 5.3 and thats very HIGh- not sure how that fits with the decline today?
Flux = @900

I posted this on the T&C site
MATH MATH MATH
21 years from 1987 Oct 18th = Oct 2008 = 7670 trade days
WATCH This
ive been telling you about the 13 day cycle
590 X 13 = YES your RIGHT = 7670
THATS Oct 14 @ 4pm & a full moon EXACT at 4pm


JAY

yesterday gets only a 2X -WOW

ITS NOT a matter of IF I should get short & buy puts, BUT WHEN to do it. !!!

I'll make this BRIEF ///

I WILL NOW BE BUYING puts on or b4 the close of biz today, OCTOBER 1st.
moved up from Friday's close to today


Commentary
the Mkt would have DROPPED 777 even if the bill had passed on Monday- so news does not make the mkt
they would have found plenty of reasons to support the hit.

Today we have a somewhat bullish overtone left over from yesterday's euphoria, and even the FTSE is up 100 pts at 9am.

Ratios, even the Jaywiz index @ .77 indicates a fairly strong day today

However
VHF = 8 and is bearish

power index = 500 and a little bullish

Activity index was as high as 3 earlier this AM, and is still hanging at 2.3
thats much better than flat line at near 0 on Monday

Pressure index over 3000 today , but takes a MAJOR drop after today to as low as 2970 by tomorrow

What currently amazes me is the FLUX index which has produced gyrations for 5 days in a row which I have never seen b4 on this in the 2 years I have been watching it.
Today is also shows a level of 900
the range is from 900 to 1070
900 - is MOST bearish

After today we have to look forward to a very serious potential for a BLACK Monday and terrible Tuesday
the 66 hr TIME within the 84.5 hr /13 day cycle is STILL @ 1 to 2pm on Tuesday
that WILL NOT CHANGE

the BIGGER cycle of 13days/ 84.5 hours is still on schedule for OCT 14th @ 11am since the 13th is closed for Columbus day- i think.

That matches a cycle LOW & EW wave LOW projected by JR on one of my private groups. He is a very very Astute Elliottician wave & technical anaylst.

Best for now
Jay

WOW, WOW, WOW

Congress and those Pub's, oh Republicans, or whatever they are - party poopers
and they even expect to get re-elected, and Damn, they probably will

I would guess Democrats just clinched the election

The ARMS index was still ONLY 2.04 = NO PANIC

So when is the real panic going to hit wall st??

I am still targeting the 6th & 7th

Are they even going to try to vote on the Rescue bill again? Maybe next week? Whew !!!!

When to get short, you ask? ASAP

Tomorrow, we might see a sharp rebound after the open, and they might even linger till Wed as the trading tomorrow will be quite muted during the Rosh Hashanah high holiday's

One of my graph's indicates a high tomorrow and another one on Wed, so it could be either. HOW high? Not much - AND it wont matter as the wave looks like its in a 3 of 3 of 3 and that should take them down as there will be NO buyers to be found.

Jay

Deal or NO deal ??

Sounds like a TV game show- Ok Howie, we get it- (G)

Central banks supply xtra $$- send some My way - oh, yeh the puts I bot last week just gave XTRA $$$

What should we expect now?

This downdraft should help scare the HOUSE members so they dont want to be viewed as causing a crash

11:30 and holding steady down 300 pts.

84.5 hrs can stretch into 89 hours which = 3:30 pm today

Expecting a rebound tomorrow and Wed Am.

I will be maxed out in puts on Friday Oct3rd.

the next cycle hit is on the 7th at @1-2pm

Jay
Jay

NO DEAL- UH OH

I should have posted the NO DEAL yesterday, and to some of you it would have struck a chord.

It was already pre ordained

And the deal will get done on Monday, probably just b4 the noon lunch break

VHF today active @ 10
Jaywiz index Tues & Wed @ 21,& 22 but .73 yesterday

Power index hits a high this AM of 500 and drops to 400 by day's end- Maybe some pre open anouncment to give the mkt an adrenaline boost that falls out of bed after the open, but the futures are looking GRIM at 8am

Flux = 900 LOWEST level possible

Pressure = 2986= low levels

Activity index = under 1.0 coming off a 3.0 at midnite, and is flat line for the past 3 hours.

How does the 13 day pivot effect people and markets? your watching in action

It hit at 1pm Wed, and we got yesterday's boost
It hits again on Monday @ 11am- watch the cannons & fireworks when the deal is done.

Coincidental ? Not at all
Markets make the news, not reverse.

Jay

Cycle on schedule

S0000, did you see the rebound after 1pm ? that was the cycle I was talking about

The power index calls for a rebound today ending at tomorrow's open follow thru high


From there, we still have the 13 day pivot low due on Monday @ 11am, which should offer a more powerful rebound from there to October 3rd;;

YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST

I will be MAXED out with PUT options at the CLOSE of OCTOBER 3rd.

The WEEK of Oct 6 to 10th could be historic in nature- exactly what will occur is anyone's guess and I do not have a crystal ball for such things. BUT it will come as a shock to the markets world wide, and the sell off will be considerable.

One thing I can tell you- IT will NOT be financial in nature- that ship is already sailed

Best for now
Jay

Strong downward cycle

1pm Tuesday
That 66 hr cycle seem to be in control, and heading toward its resolution

the last occurance was on Spt5th, and the 4th was also a strong selloff day;

So we should expect today to be weak overall with failed rally attemtps which we already saw this AM

Once the Cycle is complete at about 11am to 1pm tomorrow, then the rebound off of that point should have some sticking power, but should peak on Thursday, if not at the open, then at least similar to today.

Jay

66 hr low

The TREND till Spt 29th is to make lower lows, and lower highs.

Today has a potential high at 12;25, & 3:48 pm.

Tomorrow SPT 24th, expecting the 66 hour low due between 11am and 1pm

A stronger rebound should take hold after that into the open for Thursday.

From there they could continue to hold up most of the day, but a move lower into 11am on the 29th should begin during the day, probably a last hour slide on Thursday..

Jay

Down Monday Spt 22

As predicted, its 10:25 and the dow is off 155

bail out cost rises, and thats just for investment banks. Whats it going to cost to save AIRLINES, or Auto's, & the list goes on.

VHF index = 8 & showing weakness
Jaywiz index = .38 - neutral
OIL + 4.00, not good this week
Power index = 350- toward the LOW side- thus the down mkt
Pressure down to 2990 from a high last week of 3004 = weakness
Activity index ovnt droped from a +2 to 1/2 and flat line = weakness
Flux index = 1010 which is well under the median of 1030, so also weak

WHATS Expected this week?
thanks for asking-
As previously noted,
a LOW on WED at noonish;

Best for now
Jay

UPTREND will continue

BUT NOT on Monday Spt 22nd -

Not all the Jaywiz index data is in, but the one that gives me a future view by one to 3 days is indicating a down day on Monday
Pressure readings dropped from 3040 to 2990 for Monday, but they zoom back up on to 3020Tuesday

Whats NEXT?
Consider Spt 17 the bottom of a 5 wave decline, and forget how it fits into the overall Elliott wave count.

The Spt 18th LOW @ 1pm was the 50% completion of an 84.5 hr cycle that began on 8/21
THUS the blast off which would have occurred regardless of the treasury/Fed or NOT.

10,500 to 11,400 in less than 2 days deserves a good sell off day and that's MONDAY
But the UPTREND should still continue to Oct 3rd.

In the meantime, there's 10 days till then - What should we expect in between? glad you asked.
Lets say the high on the 19th = the top of rebound wave "A"
Whats next is Decline phase "B"

Timewise it looks like the B wave should break down into its own abc
Within the 84.5 hr cycle, we get

9/24 @ 1pm , a Low & the power index agrees @ 200, then to 350 later
power index for 25th = 475 start of the day, STRONG OPEN, but drops to 325 later so any rally that day should fizzle
9/29 @ 11 am to 1pm, a Low , which should give way to the Oct 3rd high- some say SPX 1300.

Hope this is easy enuf to follow
its only 10 days. some analysts give out data relating to what happened in the last 2 years to get where we are now.
That shows us how smart they are with math formulas, but what does that do for us now?- Nothing

Best for now
Jay

Numbers

VHF = 2
under 5 = up mkt

jaywiz index = 46 = up mkt

power index = 500 open & close
up mkt

pressure=
3004 open
2996 mid dai
2004 close

Activity index = 3 = positive

Flux = 1025 & rising= moderate up

additional index --- 5 at lows to 20 at highs
Polarity was @ 5 on 17-18
Now at 10, only moderately higher.

Futures indicate HUGE open to spx 1260 or more
Ftse record Up day

Jay

saved money mkts

Its one thing to save financial companies, but its more important to save the general public which it appears they did by shoring up Money fund accounts

Today's open at spx 1250 begs to be shorted and expect a retreat back to the 1200 area by 2pm

2pm is 90 bars from the 1pm low of yesterday

The close might repeat yesterday's rally and Monday could open at or above 1250, but the GOOD feelings and short squeeze for the work of the treasury will most likely be whats NEXT?

Its good to wkno the even tho the Pres is asleep, weve got others who have been jarred awake and making the neccessary adjustments

it has been said that we may have survived the Money Crisis for now, but another set of SHOES is about to drop in October

Bradley HIGH was expected on the 21st and that means today & Monday
Next weeks levels are expected to decline into the next day of reckoning on the 25th

Will have index numbers later.
Jay

Added Indexes

maybe this group of data will help with direction and amplitude

1. VHF index is a +15 = weak mkt

2. Jaywiz index = .25 on 9day ave = WEak mkt

3, Power index hit 600 at open and now at 500
tomorow at 400
Monday at 300
tuesday at 200
This indicates a declining mkt and could be in a BIG WAY

4. Pressure hit 3040 @ open and drops to 2995 as the day progresses

5. Activity index was @ 3.5 @ oppen and now dropping under 3.0

6. Flux index under 1020 = showing weakness

ALL in ALL the above data indicates the WEAKNESS will continue.
Jay

UH- OH

that chart from ACB shows PANIC selling on Monday;

The High +200 dow today has GONE and it looks BAD for investors, but great for traders

Jaywiz index the last 10 days has hovered in the 29 area on Average, only because one day hit a 60, other wise it would be closer to 25

Im going to add some new indicators and give them names;
1. jaywiz power index RANGE from 200 on the low side to 800 on the high side
Today it openned at 600 and drops off to 500.
Tomorrow , the POWER index drops to the 400 area
Monday its still drops lower to 300
tuesday , Even lower to minimum at 200

2. Jaywiz Pressure index
Range from 2800 to 3100
Today's pressure hit highs of 3004 and drops off to 2996
the LOW of yesterday reading was @ 2958 which plummeted from 3040 on last Friday

there is a danger that the SPX could drop to 1050 area the next 3 days

Jay

Frozen in time

Heres a chart from ACB

You can find him @ www.csiwallstreet.com

Jay

Counted 5 waves Again

Today counted out 5 waves into the close
Wave 4 hit its highs about 3pm

Tomorrow promises an EXPLOSIVE UP OPEN.

But dont expect it to last past the first hour
They wont give the bulls a chance to get in unless you had the _____ to do it today.

I dont expect a major reversal lower tomorrow, but Friday could also open moderately higher and give it up also

A poor close Friday will lead to a major sell off on Monday and probably Tuesday also

Jaywiz index for Monday was .18 = very bearish
Tuesday = .22 very bearish
WEd = .35 Moderately bearish

Jay

wave 4 to go higher

BUT NOT TODAY

Today as futures indicate should open lower, but trade higher most of the day. THEN close lower

Tomorrow, 18th should again open lower, then trade steadily higher with a higher peak on the 19th.

19th is
8day high
Midnite high tide
Bradely high

Goes against the Sun Sq pluto, but Pluto represents death & regeneration - dah, exactly -- LEH & AIG.

However, next week should continue the slide on Monday & Tuesday.

Jay

wave 4

It looks like today's close made a wave 4 rebound, or maybe tomorrow AM

Anyone got another count, let me know.

Still looking for that 55 & 110 day cycle convergence on the 18th probably in the AM.

Monday looks like a very strong day, which is after the Sun Square Pluto on Sunday.


Jay

Thursday is FIBO CYCLE

As mentioned b4, the 18th is a cycle LOW & High and the day could start out as a low & rebound strongly;

The thing to have done today was wait till after the open which is what I did, and shorted at the 11am rebound high dow - 170 from a Low of - 335.

Tomorrow is showing me a lower low as the end of day today closed lower than the 228 bar cycle @ 3:30

the next bar cycle of importance is at 11:45am and then at 2;15pm

Wait - Wait, DID you write 2;15pm?? thats the FED minute !!
Yes it is, and If the Fed reduces the bank window rate, but not the consumer discount rates, then we might get a short bounce into the close.

Its reported that Hadik posted 10,587 between the 8th and 19th.

Murrey math support levels are about to be smashed on the SPX at 1187.50, then lower to 1125 and the bottom of the box is at 1062. BUT ,IMO<>

Jay

Sunday futures -3525 spx dow off 200 at open

CME futures sunday night seem to be reflecting a NO DEAL for LEH, unless something changes between now and tomorrow am with someone in the UK.

Sun Square pluto on the 20th assures a tough week= stress & conflicts

Pressure readings do seem to indicate a higher high might still be out there on Monday, or the readings for a high have already been spent

The readings for most of teh week after monday are DOWN into at least the 18th

Oct 10th is a BIG anniv date and has some heavy astro, where that date could offer the month's low.

Jay

Get ready

A good close today should lead to a very strong OPEN on Friday @10 AM

Initially a high at 10am, and then UP again at noon, after the 10:30 low @ 90 bars.

A somewhat weaker close on Friday at 156 bars

But still expect Monday to open with a solid UP as well, but this will most likely emulate Spt 2nd.

Jay

CYCLE LOW

As promissed, we got he 11am cycle low
Dow openned up 100 and at 11am was off 8.83 for a bout one second.
Now at noon is up 117 and promissing to go higher.

we should get 150 pt rally by the close

looking for a short term trading high on Monday Spt15th- could be one of those 300 pt one day wonders.

Jay

ASTRO effect

You dont have to be a believer to observe the effects of Jupiter TRINE Saturn
Jupiter = Expansion and usually in a BIG WAY
Saturn represents responsibility

SO, Now you know WHY the FNM and FRE bail out happened this wkend.

Tomorrow, the bears are back in control as Venus, the planet of Love and Money, Squares Jupiter.
A complete reversal of euphoria..

Now, dont expect a crash, ITs not going to happen, but a good take away will occur
as mentioned b4, the 13 day (84.5 hr) cycle LOW is Wed at 11amalong with 204 bars at 11:30-
You saw part of it on Friday at the 11:30am LOW

The rally started today, however is NOT over
Still got a high coming Early Friday

Jay

Monday rally as expected

Its now Sunday Spt7th at 8pm

CME futures on NDX are UP 37.25

Spx ftures are UP30.50

As expected a WHOPPER open and strong rally day

Any gains for monday are expected to be short lived as Tuesday could be a complete take away day.

Jay

Timing the Low

Many of my associates are screaming crash- BUT me thinks they are too abundant

Next week is MIXED with turns

Bradley turn on 9th.
8 day low on 9th. also matched timing

9 day turn on 10th @ 11am also = 84.5 hr low & turn
coincidentally matches the 204bar cycle low.

SO, how low is LOW ?
Did we get there Friday and now we are testing the low , then moving somewhat higher against the larger downtrend ?

ThursdaySpt4th appears was an 8 day LOW= 52 hour cycle @ the close which actually ended at 54 hours on Friday @ 11am; Why? because there was a 65/66 hr cycle also due at that point which override the Thursday cycle.

the 66 hr cycle is 78.6% of the 13 day, 84.5 hr larger cycle which hits on the 11th @ 11am as printed above.

From there we should see the market move higher into Friday morning b4 running into reistence and resuming the downtrend for next week.

How high is high?

Possibilities
NDX recent high was 1973 and low was 1743 = 230 pts
230 x 38.2 % = 88 + 1743 = 1831
You can do the math for 50% & the other indeces.

Monday should still offer a strong rally day.

Jay

THANKS

thanks for the acknowledgements

repeating
Today has the potential for a 1:30pm low, and a secondary low @ 4pm OR open on the 4th.

Still got a huge rally expected for the 4th, at least a one day wonder, unlike the open on the 2nd which was a 10 minute blastoff and crash. over 500 pts in one day-.

Jay

blast off

No way to catch that one, and I was not going to buy in last Friday

However, Astro and bar cycles appear to be in sync for a down day tomorrrow till at least 1;30, and maybe even the close

Astro negative hits @ 1;30pm which coincides with 126 bars
156 bars @ 4pm could drag the mkt lower at the close OR the OPEN on the 4th- which would make a great call buy opp.
The 3rd whole day is influenced by a SUn 90 Saturn at 10pm. provides a serious & hard working tone to the day.

4th still ahs potential to make it up to spx 1312, if not later today which would be a great place to short today, looking for that 1;30 pm low tomorrow.

Jay

Bar cycles

So, NOW we see for real the power of bar cycles

What's next week ?/ Hurricane Gustov, and Hanna- what a pair, hope they blow away

Next week might start out a little sloppy, but thats OK with me as it offers an opp to buy some calls at reasonable prices b4 they blast off- Yes thats right BLAST OFF !!

Spt 4th has the best chance of TOPPING and making a HIGH of the month.

Spx got to 1300, and the goal is NOW 1312.

Then 1343 is the next M-Math level. But i doubt we will see that #.

Jay

SPX 1300

Now there's a number that should draw a response.

I know I posted that spx level as a potential peak level, but I thought it would come next week. Are we still on track for a Spt 4th High? YES, we are.

However weve got a tough new moon Saturday,and Gustov still heading at the Oil rigs for the wkend:

Hmmmn, has anyone else ever noticed, we get hit by hurricanes when the mkts are making LOWS, or am I alone with that observation?

Even tho, my scientific observations seemed to point toward a sell off today, we got a decent rally instead, BUT what does that say about tomorrow. Friday is the day after a fibo grouping, and facing a new moon indicating that we should keep secrets-
Strange also that ANYTIME, i get a reading that says we should keep secrets, the mkt plunges, and the reverse when the reading calls for NO secrets.

the PC ratios indicate selling tomorrow
Jaywiz index has become a little unreliable lateley.
Midnite lows and highs have been off by a day at times and this might be one of those times.
My friend, Coy Morphew, reports the futures and his pather indicates a down day.

126 bars cycle @ 11:30, an AM low
156 bars cycle @ 2pm afternoon low
Now the big event I mentioned b4 is 180 bars which WILL STRIKE at the OPEn tomorrow and in 15 minutes or less could wipe out more than 50% of today's gains and continue to head lower till the MAIN 258 BAR CYCLE @, yep you guessed it (( 4pm))

Now in this case we would expect the 4pm cycle @ 258 bars to hit exact rather than on Tuesday AM.
What does that say about Tuesday? I mentioned it b4, we should see a very strong day on the heels of a major drop in oil prices. Remember FEAR is worse b4 the event as we expect the worse , but will rejoice when its over.

Best for now
Jay

OIL

What garbage- Oil down 3.00 and the MEDIA wants to attribute that drop to Gustov NOT threatenning the oil rigs- HEY guys that storm is still 4 days away- what chustpa to attribute a price drop to such a nothing rumor.

Today is a confuence of fibo cycles and a 9 day turn which means things should go the other way tomorrow, and possibly in a big way, especially if the mkt gives up most of its gains later today.

there is a 180 bar cycle @ 4pm which frequently influences the next day open and if you remember last month we had a 60 bar open and the dow was off 130 in the first 10 minutes, & tomorrow this might show a repeat of that type of event.

Jay

Right on schedule

high @ 2;45 today hit right on schedule

Tomorrow could open with a THUD @ 90 to 102 bars

Tonight has merc 90 pluto @ 9:35 pm and a VERBAL war could erupt- somewhere- most likely Russia & US or Iran. Or we might be surprised by someone's speach tonight
waging verbal war on republicans.

Gustov charted for New Orleans- just when we were getting a break- Remember I posted gas prices to get to 3.50, i just paid 3.62- buts thats all she wrote> Grr.

Expect a low on Friday, maybe extending to 1pm, then a late recovery.

28th is midnite low and at 6am the next morning, we get Venus 90 pluto;
venus in Virgo make her very picky & insecure

When Gustov passes BY New Orleans with little or no damage to OIL supply, watch it PLUMMENT next week, and stock prices exlode up on Tuesday

Jay

cross currents

Today has the potential to rally, but cycles are still weak, and any rebound today should be short lived.

the 28th is a low tide day and venus 90 pluto will have its negative effect.

8:30am
Europe is recovering some from its intraday lows, and FTSE is now Up 30 pts
Durable goods report bumped the futures Up

Thursday Aug 28 is an 8 day cycle and its looking like it will be a LOW
that makes Friday a 9 day TURN and Im still expecting a lower open with a revocery

Next week's highlighted event is Spt 4th with a SUN 120 jupiter @1:42pm followed by a couple of lunar sextiles also positive energy. Should be the HIGH of month

Often, we find labor day putting in an important high or low, and this year is no excpetion
Jay

Aug 26

today was 55 june 6 which was a down 300 pt day

Tomorow is 110 march 19th which was a closing low other than the intraday low on march 17

jaywiz index = .33 neutral to negative bias

If a rally at the open, i will buy puts and wait till noon to sell and 2pm to buy calls

Cycles still calling for a lower day tomorrow

SPX 1259 should hold, but if not then 1255 is next level to watch.

Jay

Monday Aug 25th
Cycles are pointing DOWN and could start with a SLUMP.
Needless to say this was a big $$ day

180 bars struck at 3pm, and offered the LOD

Tuesday might start with a moderate rally, but Mid day offers the BUY for the HUGE rebound on the 27th.

204bars @ 10:30
228Bars @ 12:30
258 bars @ 2pm

I think that 12:30 will offer the LOD;

More $$ will be made on the rebound.

Jay

September 2008

A low on August 8th should lead to a high on Spt4th

From there a deeper low could be possible for the end of Spt which could possibly set the stage & start a mild rising trend thru March or April of 2009

Jay

Monday Aug 25th

Cycle are pointing down for the day and could start with a slump at the open.

Still got Tuesday for big Up

Wed peaking

Thursday much lower

friday starts lower , and should recover some

Jay

Friday Aug 22

looks like a big open

may not last all day, but could drop and recover by days end

Opposite of Yesterday

Monday offers a sloppy day, and one where you should be cautious and little will go right.

Tuesday promises a day of extravagance including stock prices

Wed - more of the same but could turn mid day and head lower

Thurs & friday head for the new moon and a low tide, so do look out for a possible new low for the month.

Jay

stealth rally

the 130 pt rally came off a 100 pt down open.

My cycle work was mixed today and the result is what you saw happen.

Jaywiz index is now somewhat bearish @ 26
PC ratios are neutral to bearish

heres a few things to take not of.

Oct 9 to Aug 15 = 216 tr days = 27 segments of 8
May 19 to july 15 = 39 tr days
July 15 to Spt 9 = 40 tr days = A bradley date
Spt 9 to Nov 4th = 40 tr days

Aug 22nd has a high tide
But the cycle has turned DOWN

Jay

Wheres that rally ?

Its 2:45 pm on WEd Aug 20

Got a false start today high @ 11am

150 bars @ 10am
204 bars @ 2:30- I would like to see that low HOLD at the close

Tomorrow has the astro look of a potential big Up day till 1pm

Jay

Wed Aug 20

Its now 8:30 AM on WEd Aug 20

Most of my research indicates a solid Upday today

Jaywiz index Mon = .56
Tues = .47

OEX , PC & SPDR ratios also bullish readings

84.5 hr cycle HIGH @ 11am TOmorrow

yesterday's 126 bar cycle low was due at 2:45 and looks like it hit @ 3:15- within the margin of allowed cycle time stretch.

Jay

update

Its now 2pm on Tuesday Aug 19th;

Lows hit at 10:23 at the Lunar mars 180

Also hit a low @ 12:30 on the 102 bar cycle

Now expecting 126bars cycle @ 2:45 and that might be the LOD

A rebound from there should carry them up till mid day on Wed, and from there its pretty much biased lower till 11:15am on Friday

best wishes
Jay

Has there been a trend change?

friday was an 8 day HIGH
Today is a 9 day TURN

next 8-9 day grouping is the 28/29th

HIGH energy levels are upon us today and it looks like they abate tomorrow

just what that means for stock prices remains to be seen.

Today is also 216 tr days from Oct 10th, and should /could offer a CHANGE in trend.

Best for now
Jay

Still on the upswing

Preliminary indications for a Monday high are still posible

If we get a spurt at the open, it could offer the best shorting opp in 2 weeks.

Jaywiz index shows .15 and lowest value in 2 wks

Gold dropping, Oil and commodities all making lower numbers, and should continue this week - we need lower gas prices. $3.50 or lower would be ok for now, and lower later.

Friday was an 8 day high, making Monday a 9 day TURN which should make for a WEd low
Still got potential for Aug 22nd TOP which may or may not be higher than spx1312. Several attempts to break out are common when you get intermediate uptrends. Many still expect the july 15th low to be tested, and thats my lead for the next paragraph.

My19th high @ 13,000, and spx 1440
Jly 15th LOW was 40 trade days and Dow 11,000 with spx @ 1200

There was an NYSE record of 1304 new lows that day- so we should be watching NOW for a lower SPX, NYSE low with LESS new lows for the day in order to say we have seen the BOTTOM. IF there is a lower low with MORE new lows, then we havent seen the bottom

Spt9th is the next important Bradley date and is coincidentally 40 trade days from July 15th

Add another 40 trade days from there takes us to Nov 4th, AH yes Election day and Ive mentioned it several times over the past few months as having a grouping of tough aspects occurring on the 3rd and 4th.

At the Spt 9th date, there is a large grouping of MIXED aspects on Sun the 7th , 8th and 9th which dont appear
to be abundantly negative, thus I think it would be prudent to consider that date a high. In between, however, as mentioned above we have a possible high on Aug 22nd, and now we are thinking a low on Spt 3th with potential rebound to the 9th.

All in All the Fall usually is a tough time for stocks, and with an election upon us accompanied by some very difficut aspects, I would venture to say we should not expect anything in the way of a strong rebound until after nov 4th. In other words, another rebound such as July 15 TO Aug 11th is not expected, but a NEITHER is a CRASH


Best for Now
Jay

NOW WHAT ?

OK, they got to 1312 on monday at about 2pm
5 days Arms = 87.4 indicating a short term sell
5 day trin = 437 - Ditto
10 day trin = 968 Ditto
P/C ratios neutral

July 15 low to Aug 11 high = 18.5 days
July 15 to Aug 22 = 28 days
28 days less 18.5 days = 8.5 days

1/2 of that = 4.25 days
Aug 11th at 2pm + 4.25 days = friday @ 4pm

It appears we got a rebound from the low which = wave "A"
guessing that we will have a 3 wave structure of A-B -C

Where's "B "going??

240 pt loss X 50% = 120
1200 + 120 = 1320, Ok we got to 1312, close enuf
120 pt gain from July 15 x
38.2% =46 which carries out to 1266
50% = 60 1252
61.8% = 74 1238

So, we have a range of 1238 to 1266 by friday Aug 15th.
where does that make numbers for the week after? good question.
August 22 nd should find the market ending at 1340 area which could offer a 600 to 800 pt dow rally that week. Astro is lite and positive that week.

Best for now
Jay

Thanks for the encouragement

Weve mentioned the math b4 and here it is again

SPX 1440 -1200= 240 X 50% = 120
spx 1200 + 120 = 1320
its also 3 divisions of 40 pts

Same with Dow
14000 - 11,000 = 3000
50% retracement = 12,000

Will we get there on Tuesday?

If Monday drops UNDER well under 1280, then any rally on Tuesday might not make it, but the reading I have is quite positive.
1320-40 = 1280, and yes its that simple

Ive added a 5 day ave to the Jaywiz index, and it is at historical highs measured against the past
FEb 26 = 47.5
Apr 1st = 38.9
May19 = 35.6
Now = 48.7
After Feb 26th, the dow fell 1000 pts into May10th. - just 8 days

Eclipse such as this wkend can go either way but usually accentuates the most current trend
and the solar eclipse on the 1st was within a decline trend.

Best for now
Jay

RE Group

ive taken some time to re analyze why last week was so bad for me, and I think Im back, but we'll see next week

The Jaywiz index of 1.10 on wed should NOT have been pushed aside as it became obvious as the day progressed on Friday

Some of my data was mixed and thus I could not be sure of my projections

NOW here's what we have:

Jaywixz index = .84 and is also indicating another Upday, but not neccesarilly on Monday

Monday opens with a 90 bar cycle, and the futures did close lower friday- we can see what they read tonight at 6pm EST. the 90 bar cycle means a SHARPLY LOWER OPEN, and the readings for the day are quite negative.

SO, any rebound off Monday should occur on tuesday which has a much more positive reading

But from there Im expecting a strong sell off into OE on friday

The absorption level on Friday was a 7
and the reading for today is 17, which indicates selling

Ive still got some conflicting data, but Im still going to project a lower day monday.

Best for Now
Jay
PS, its amazing how your comments are totally lacking during the 2 weeks I nailed the market, but I miss one day and someone is ready to fade my work.

Friday Lower

most of my data prefers a lower day on friday, and for now Im sticking with that game plan.

90 bars cycle @ 4pm

today hit highs at 1pm, and the rest of the day was lower
3pm @ 258 bars , thus start a new cycle.

Since the market dropped lower AFTER the 258 bar cycle, it means to me LOWER.

8th is the open ceremony of the Olympics on 8-8-2008 : add the digits = 8
8 is Saturnian in nature , but represents good fortune for Chinese people.

Jaywiz index yesterday = a whopping 1.10, and today =.52

The last time we watched a build up we got big days on 29, & 30th

Im going to get into position on Monday for a HUGE one day rally on Tuesday, and again on Thursday, but maybe not as strong.

IF you remeber what I wrote WAY BACK when, I projected a HIGh at the August 16th ECLIPSE and thats just what we will get.

Dow High 14,000 - Low @ 11K = 3000 pts
50% = Dow 12,000
Can it be that simple? yes it can.

spx1200 + 120 = 1320, and ive mentioned that several times last week.
thats also a 50% retracement

But watch out afterward as rumors are spreading around the web for possible terrorist actions in the next few months at malls, airports, sports stadiums, etc. and reaction by the US military. In Israel, a discarded valise is cause for alarm by every citizen but here it might even get stolen by some shmuck thinking its got a $mil in it.

Nov 4th - has Saturn 180 Uranus & Mars square neptune & venus Square uranus & Venus Square saturn
those combinations are very severe, and very unfriendly to human behavior, so theres NO telling what will happen on or near Election day

Best for now
Jay

Wed game plan

I think Im going to stick with my original assesment of WEd and Thurs

Which means short a higher open (buyputs) and sell at 3pm

Same for Thursday, or maybe hold for friday @ 3pm- I dont like to hold overnight anymore, but this time it might be ok.

Jay

Wed Aug 6th

Wed Aug 6th is a midnite HIGH TIDE DAY, which means the day should close on its highs

Its also a MAJOR convergence day with Multpile fibo and other cycle convergences

However, the Afternoon at 2:50pm has some heavy duty astro that can back stab anyone's rally.

Some of the data i have indicates a possible LOWER open, rally till about 1pm, then a sell off into that 2:40-3pm time zone and a huge rebound in the last hour.

We are at spx1284 NOW for the 4th time in a month since the July15th LOWS. 1291.17 was the HOD previously THUS any break above that with volume could get the SPX to 1320; Gee, I did mention that number last week.

SO, If I dont go long, then Ive got to hold out and buy puts on the close or wait for the open on Thursday.
Today i sold out early, but Im satisfied with the results.

I might have to sit this one out. Now, you know that wont be easy. (G)
Jay

Game Plan

Bot calls at 1pm on Monday and sold them at 10am on Tuesday and got 30 pts
Sure its higher at 2pm, but I dont care. ive got other things to do with my time.

As for Wednesday,Aug 6th, Im planning to Sell the open at about 10am.(buyputs)

I am expecting to sell those puts at 3pm

Repeat the same process for the 7th.

You could hold them till 2pm on the 8th

Hope this clarifies how to trade this week

Jay

monday 11am update

Still flat line so no advances as of yet.

Could take till the 258 bar cycle @ 1pm

Or just the last 30 minutes from 30bars @ 3:30

The calls prices on qqqhr are really hanging tough @ $1.25 area ,but did hit a low of $1.15

Ndx did NOT quite challenge 1800 as yet but did hit 1805

Looks like Today will require an all day vigil
so what else is new? (G)

Jay

Monday Aug4th

Today looks like a lower open following on the last 30 minute downtrend on friday

However,
from the data I collect
It looks like BUY calls on the lows at probably 10;15 to 10:30, and sell the OPEN on Tuesday at 10am OR if you want, just hold till about 2pm where a secondary high should set the stage for a lower close.

Jaywiz index = .28, not bullish , but NOT overly bearish unless it counts for today's open.

A run to spx 1290 by tomorrow afternoon would not be out of the question

Jay