LOOKS TO me like 5th has come and GONE
26 hour cycle took us to 3pm on 30th
Next 26 hr cycle is Aug5th at 3pm
If 1002 is deemed the HIGH of the March 9th rally trend,
and Aug 7th is to be a high at that level, then the rally has to come from much lower
Positive SENTIMENT was SO THICK friday - ITS GOT to be taken DOWn to NEGATIVE
Aug5th is teh NEXT best bet for a low in the spx 950 to 925 area
IF SUCH A LOW IS ACTUALLY COMING
NOW you skeptics and amateurs remember this is ONLY a
FIBO level THAT the mkt should seek IF a sell off is coming within this time frame
Now, is that how you want me to frame my projectsion
NOTHING IS CUT IN STONE< and just because I throw it out there, doesnt make it so
Jay
ps;
Thanks Sam
I'll post if I can
65 comments:
I have been following for months.
Quite amazing on the accuracy .
Some websites charge $1000's and do not come close to Jay.
Some Fund Managers get paid millions and do not come close to Jay.
Trying to forecast the market is a near impossible event all of the time - Jay is the closest to it I have seen in all my years of trading - using Astro and other methods.
Quite amazing Jay.
UK Trader.
US Banking index needs to catch up to the other verticles, Banks will do well next week. OIL hit my target of $69 so it may relax next week and then resume the following week. Not sure on OIL which is a major factor for the TSX that I participate in more.
hI jAY,
Im new here but and been lurking for awhile . Ive been reading your prognostications which are really exciting to say the least.
Besides your astro, cycles, fib, etc, do you place any credence on Fundamental news, government economic reports, FED actions, GoldmanSach reports etc. in factoring into your market divinations. I get really confused reading fundamental style analysis which seems to me to be always misleading juxtaposed with mathematical and science based approaches such as yours.
You can't have it both ways can you? I think you have as well as others keenly demonstrated that market turns can be predicted weeks in advance and that any other factors unrelated is just pure noise? Is this assessment correct? I want to once and for all turn off Bloomberg and put down the aWallstreet Journal.
Dianne&Don L.
UK Trader,
stop smoking crack, this guy has been rotten wrong since Ive been watching. You know on the street no multi-million dollar earning trader would ever use the moon and the stars for trading. There is a very good reason why Jay is dishing out free advice based on jupiter, mercury and the unicorns, thats bcs its a bunch of bullshit. Common people wake the fuck up. I hope people here dont get fooled by this nonsense. Jay, I ocme to this site for the entertainment value, you get an A+ for that. Too funny folks.
-Troy
Troy - you sound like a little boy who has got lost .
There are no Guarantees in the Market. I come in here to hear opinions and perspectives. I do not agree majority of times, but I respect the forum and the freedom to post what is in your mind.
Thanks
Aug. will end near a high not a low with a mid month dip.
C
Dear Members,
Remember that in this week newsletter we predicted crash in commodities and stocks on 4th August so plan your all trade before., if you are already in trade as per recommended in newsletter then hold your positions. Also dollar will move huge up on 4th so accumulate on weakness of today and tomorrow.
Also we mentioned in newsletter that no need to trade this Thursday and Friday because both of these days are negative and mistake bound to happen. Today's trend will be proven false.
Great fall in metals, oil and grains from next week.We expect more than 10% fall in a week.
This kind of opportunity never come again and again, also astrology can only predict this kind of events. By Tuesday evening you will come to know why you subscribe financial newsletter.
Thanks & God Bless
Mahendra Sharma'
www.mahendraprophecy.com
UUP Bear USD $ index tested support to $23./xx. I expect a rebound on the USD. OIL is flying so Im out my energy stocks tomorrow on the TSX. Were at $71, I think if we get to $72 Tue this will be tops for OIL for the short term. Never thought we would pass $70..., I guess someone did
Its all about the EUR-USD, thats why OIL is flying and hence the TSX tomorrow.
Jay,
Any propens reading update for us.
Thanks
Sold all my shorts ....Dow might be going to 9500...don't fight the tape good luck too all Eric
You're a couple days late on selling those shorts. might as well hang on to them because a pullback expected after today. Maurice
Maurice
Good Luck That's what they said 2 months ago, 3 weeks ago, 1 week ago etc Eric
shorted 998 will add if needed for s/t trade.
c
re: TSX (TorntoStockExchange)
All you need to do now is watch for a crossover down of the Weekly SlowStochastic 5,3 indicator. Once this happens you can pile on the "IT" shorts until late October.
A negative Divergence would all but seal the deal too. It doesn't get any plainer and easier than this and from the looks of it it's not too far away. The market willl probably get exuberantly Bullish at the same time.
Candi
HI cani, could you please elaborate as i am weal in TA what do you mean by "Weekly SlowStochastic 5,3 indicator" ? How does one look for it? thanks
sam
hi today as predicted< low on 5th < spx over 1000 on 7th < 10 th to 20th = severe sell off < Jay
Hi Sam.
You can just go here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
type in $TSX and go to indicators and pulldown menu to select "slowstochastic" and set parameters to 5,3.
This setting mirrors an IT cycle I follow and a turn down of this oscillator will confirm the ensuing bottom of this cycle. The probabilities of this occuring is very high. A lower low or higher low of this cycle is uncertain. I would not rule out either or but I would lean to a higher low. Ofcourse Any bias is subject to change pending price changes from day to day.
Let me know if it doesn't work Sam.
Candi
Jay,
Tomorrow's drop, are u looking at 965 range
Way to Jay.
thanks for the update.
Mark
Thanks Candi. I will look into it.
Thanks Anno, for posting Mahendra's summary.
Thanks Jay for taking time out of your vacation to post. Don't let your family catch you doing this or you will be in trouble. But, we will post good comments to defend you though.
sam
i dont know about the rest of you,but this rally is really getting on my nerves now!
Jay,Sam,
thank you for your posts and your efforts.
pete
Mclaren target 1007 ends the bear
http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/214/1/July-17-2009-CNBC-SQUAWK-BOX-EUROPE/Page1.html
After 8, I agree this is nerve wracking for the bears. I intend to wait it out at least until 8/5.
ravi, whwere are you? what is your analysis telling at this time? I think we may see 1004-1007 as the top. but we have been calling all types of tops and proven wrong. the only possibiltiues is that the market will punish bull equally and they too are seating, especially who are new to this up leg. When it drops, it will be very down forceful move.
sam
well, here comes 1004-1007. may be a good short entry for averaging but i do not have guts. darn thing can go up to 1020. i am looking to minimize my losses.
sam
1004-1009 is what im waiting for to short again myself sam.new highs again i see. hopefully the end of wave 3 of 5 should end then.
I recently said 980 should not be violated or pee indicator is invalid...correction dow 9500 cannot be validated or flux is broken. Still bearish from spx 750 micromanaged position w/ average now at 950.
- atilla
If we continue to count 968.65 as end of (iv), then there are two possible counts
OK for shorts: We top at 1005-1006:
i 968.65 996.68 28.03
iii 985.93 1001.78 15.85 56.5%
v ? 996.65 1005.61 8.963 56.5%
Squeeze for shorts: Today's up was only first wave of iii of (v). We top beyond 1030.
i 968.65 996.68 28.03
iii 985.93 1031.28 45.35
1.618 of i
v? over 1031
Ravi
Atilla,
Didn't you also say that it was impossible for the market to pass
900??? Your predictions seem VERY
similar to Martin Armstrongs.
Ravi,
I'm confused. Top 'could' be 1005?
If not then "could" be over 1030??
How are you trading this? Thanks.
Chuck:
There is a big difference in the two scenarios. Those are rough numbers for the two scenarios, none the less there is over 27 point difference.
Rule 1, you don't have to be in play if the situation not clear.
I had been adding shorts since 962, and tried the layering in approach rather than 'tight stop loss' followed by better entry later.
I am not layering in any more. Even 1030+ top should create a correction that allows me to mimimize loss.
Ravi
Chuck:
There is a third count and scenario.
3. that Thursday top was top of A, and today's up move was b of an extended correction where b can go beyond the top being corrected. A look at the detailed waves says that this is likely. The immediate implications are not dissimilar to first scenario I presented earlier that implies top in 1003.61 or plus just a bit followed by a c to complete B. This can be a shallow B ending in 956-969 area.
Ravi
Ravi,
Thanks for your answer, but it sounds too confusing with too many
scenarios for me. Best of luck to you
though.
My open positions are underwater in millions, but they will come back. I will buy 100000 more faz if I have to since atilla's pee indicator never fails...although early sometimes.
- sol
Since my P indicator stopped working
I now use my Q indicator. Hold on sol. The Q never fails either.
Jay you said a week ago "WELL now, Just got a confirmation from some SHMUCK on Wall street at 9:25 claiming the
SPX is NOW GOING TO 1000 -- HMMMFF" You also said we shouldn't go much higher than 982. Now that we're above 1000, are you long or still short from last week?
Received a reply from Chanaka about the smart map. Seems like 8/06 is the trend change.
"Smartpredictor: That is correct. 8/9 on June map on Jay's site is now 8/6. 7/23-8/1 was a miss. http://jaywiz.blogspot.com/2009/07/great-chart.html"
You "emotional cripples" pretending to be atilla and sol shoulld take your emotional baggage back where it belongs. Its blatantly obvious you've been traumatized by your own blind stupidity that led you to gamble on someone else's predictions. You have only yourself to blame. If you don't your self-destructive self pity you'll nver ever know how to trade on your own.
concerned
With this relentless rally from 869,it is time step back and look at the big picture.
First of all, there is no such thing as a sure shot prediction of a top or a bottom at any degree of time and pattern. In EW you have more than one scenario and have to trade with that in mind, with appropriate discipline.
At the 'large degree', I share the idea with EWI and Dan Eric that we are in P2 cycle degree, and once that has reached its top we will go down in P3 and break 666. A vast, vast majority of people do not believe that this is likely.
Taking the above as the preferred 'large degree' count, let us look at the 'medium degree' count. We have all been talking of having finished the first big move at 956 and begun the next and last A, B, C move at 859 bottom. EWI, Dan Eric, I and Jay have all been looking at the scenario where we have been in a '5 wave' A of the last A, B, C to be followed by a 3 wave B down and then the C to the top of P2. Depending on where A ends, a range for B can be projected and 950-970 is fairly likely, if you do not want to get greedy as as short and risk waiting for deeper retracement that may or may not come.
At the 'medium degree', this is not the only scenario. A second scenario is that the very strong five wave move from 869 itself can be the last move composed of five waves rather than a 5-3-5 A, B, C in the first 'medium degree' scenario. This scenario can happen with the fifth extending further to 1030 plus (or even with the move so far). In this scenario we are done with P2 and would start a move towards breaking 666 if our hi degree scenario is right.
Again at the middle degree there is a third scenario. This is an expanding triangle scenario where the tops are 930.17 hi on May 8, and 956.23 hi on June 11 and perhaps today's hi which was a small "throw over" relative to the line joining the first two points. This scenario will have us go back below 869 before making the final push up.
At the lower degree, our discussion during last three weeks has been focused entirly on the A of A, B, C from 869 scenario, i.e. the first of the "middle degree" scenario. I posted three scenarios earlier today related to this loer degree detail, two of them top around today's hi or a bit higher and the other goes beyond 1030.
Believing that there is only one scenario at any degree is a foolish behavior. Market is complex and difficult to chart ahead. It demands humility, flexibility, quick action within a trading discipline as each preferred scenario goes out of the window and the next becomes possible.
Some times the waves, and stop loss points are clearer than other times. It is not a bad idea to trade only then. That is the ulimate discipline.
I hope that this is helpful inconveying how I look at the market a bit better.
I respect Jay for his cycle and astro work on timing; but I certainly do not buy into the definiteness implied in his outlook for turning points. I take his input as an indicator that helps me choose between EW scenarios. EW scenarios come with clear rules as to when a scenario becomes invalid. They do not tell you that there is one definite scenario and a definite target.
Yes, it is complex and so is the market.
Ravi
Ravi, excellent explanation -- many thanks for the clarity!
Sean
The key level to watch is 982.85. If we go below that we can eliminate the 1030 scenario.
Then the minimum target becomes towards the purported prior (iv ) low at 968.65. (I say purported, because the (iv)was never obvious and that's why all shots are in trouble)
WWave A, if done:
869.32 1003.61 134.29 15.4%
Retracement Target for B:
974.89 -28.72 21.4% shallow retrace
952.31 -51.30 38.2% low retrace
936.47 -67.15 50.0% medium retrace
920.62 -82.99 61.8% high retrace
898.04 -105.57 78.6% very high retrace
968.65 -34.96 26.0% Lower degree (iv) bottom
956.23 -47.38 35.3% June 11 high
946.21 -57.40 42.7% June 12 closing high high
Please note the "ifs".
Ravi
Hey atilla, I'm a little concerned
about 'Concerned'. He seems a little
uptight. I think he followed your
P-Index a little too long. (5months)
London FTSE is down 1.5% from its hi yesterday. That is equivalent to 1003-15= 988 on SPX. They are not 100% in synch, but it is some indication.
ravi
sol & atilla
ROTFLMAO. Man u 2 cripples are a joke. I don't know what a p-index is since i've never been on that website . U 2 cripples obviously know way too much about atilla's stuff so it's obvious u've been burned, humiliated and emotionally traumatized by your losses.
Now suck it up and stop littering this board with your adolescent whining. LOL. toooo much. LOL.
concerned
Tuesday -
Since I've been studying day-timing
(my times suck)I get a better feel for how the day runs.
For instance, today's bias is neutral to slightly positive till about 14:54 when a concerted effort begins to the downside into the close.
High of the day: 13:02
COY
What measurement are you using to base you daytiming on?
Adam
Sorry Adam. I've worked too hard and long on this.
Sol.
LOL. Do yourself a favor and Get some professional help. Really, I mean that. The blogasphere is littered with guys like you, who've lost their sanity following others and seek out yet others to harass, trying to get some emotional relief from it. It's all kind of pathetic really and painful to see now that the humor has subsided.
concerned
Concerned,
If we are 'pathetic' then what is
the person(you) who wastes his time
responding to pathetic people. You must have something better to do.
Hey atilla, your mom said you forgot to make your bed.
No crash today...wrong again. Don't miss the rest of this rally...we're only half done.
Sol, LOL.
I'm passing the time while my longs are making money. ROTFLMAO.
how bout you? LOL.
concerned.
ps. don't be so angry sol. LOL.
C,
You sure roll around on the floor
a lot. Can you shake and sit too?
Is jay still short from last week?
Though we have crossed 1006, the move today is within a wedge and not impulsive that the 1030+ scenario would have needed.
The open gap at 1005.75 closed, but has failed as a target.
Coy:
Your 1:02 PM HOD call may have hit the nail on the head, almost. At 1:00 PM. Let us see.
Ravi
atilla,
yeah, you tend to do that when you feel good about making money..........unlike your posts that stink of bitterness and misery. Ouch.
concerned
Mahendra Sharma'
www.mahendraprophecy.com
Dear Members,
Remember that in this week newsletter we predicted crash in commodities and stocks on 4th August
so far a nice prediction, any other........possibly about a war or a tsunami .............dear guru ?
anon,
My prediction is that you'll be broke by the end of the week.
hehe
Chris
chris - the only ones who care so much that they have to attack another's work are the people who can't trade. Any respectable trader is self-sufficient and couldn't care less. What these bitter souls should do is learn how to trade on their own first, before they venture into the blogasphere for opinion.
concerned
Ravi,
Nice that you took notice.
I think this blog has many lurkers.
If it were announced that the market would retreat at a certain time, wouldn't you pull the trigger just a bit early?
Just a thought. I don't claim to have accurate timing anyway.
Coy
'Any respectable trader couldn't care less'. Then why do you keep posting, if you couldn't care less?
You seem to care too much. Too much time on your hands??? Don't forget to pay taxes on ALL that money you are making. We need it for the new govt.health plan.
atilla,
I post because I care about YOU. Don't you know that by now. You're hurt and losing money and I'm trying to help you. I sense you're getting very agitated. Maybe you should lie own for awhile and try not to get too excited. It's bad for your heart. OK?
concerned
I'm not agitated C-Man. Really.
But I do not like rolling on the floor laughing either. Maybe it's because I have wood floors. I think
I will lie down for a while. Thanks.
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