Looks LIKE they HELD the 880 LINE and would NOW target 950 by July20-22Sam
IF we get any lower open, which I doubt, I will ADD MORE CALLS
the ONLY thing that could DRAG it lower at 10:30 would be the 13 day cycle completion 100%
BUT look back at Nov 21st,
which OPENED higher and fell back into 11:05am
which was ALSO a 13 day cycle completion & closed UP 495 dow pts.
I bot some calls at close and sold all my puts
I WILL ADD MORE CALLS if they sell BACK -- AFTER a higher open
tomrrow
____________________________________
ALSO the ACTIVITY INDEX in the last 2 hours MOVED higher above 300-
______________________________________________
NOTE~~ JULY 8th at 2:30 spx at 869.70 MATCHED a TIME value of
55 tr days from APRIL 20th LOW
AND today @ 11;10 am was a TIME match of 55 tr days April 21st at 10:45am
IF it wasn't for the other cycles as I mentioned several times for 4pm today
I SHOULD have been out on the 8th
NOW< heres a LESSON we ALL NEED TO LEARN
Next time we get OUT on a day like the 8th as above and
WAIT OUT THE CLOSE of the 9th to BUY CALLS
MANY of us did gt out on the 7th, but we got back in toooo early
NOTE ~~ WE DONT NEED TO TRADER EVERY DAY
Sometimes its best to WAIT for a BETTER trade,
such as getting long at today's close
More Later
Jay
50 comments:
Thanks jay. I already sold my puts at the close ecept sd and spy august, which I will close tomorrow depending upon the open.
got out of my IRA short mutual funds and into long today. Let us rally, of course after 11 am, all the way to 950.
sam
Jay,
Your original call was for the high of the month on Jul 1st morning. Have you changed your view as you are calling for 950 by Jul 20-22?
SPX 950 was manipulation when the banks wanted to raise cash to get off TARP. I don't think any cash raising is planned soon, so the upside is likely to be restricted to 925.
Arak
thats EXACTLY why I dont usually POST PRICE levels
JULY 1st was a HIGH - HIGH OF THE MONTH ??? i dont remember that or why I would even write that.
I have NO idea HOW high they will get, but looking at the chart I posted has the UPPER angle at 950
I was HOPING for SPX 862 and 822, but we WONT GET There this month
WE DID HOWEVER, make a low at 870 right on the 55 tr day cycle as noted.
WE NOW NEED TO LOOK forward to find the next most likely lows
Astro says a HIGH on July 20-22
will lead to a low on the 28th, but there are much deeper lows coming in August and maybe even Spt.
BUT thats WAY TOO FAR AWAY to matter to ANYONE reading this blog
more later
Jay
Technical BUY signals on the INTERNALS across the board today
PROPENSITY index has already shown a jump from 2990 to 3003
Power index jumps from 300 at todays close to 600 at tomrrow OPEN.
drops back to 400, and closes at 500
13th drops back to 350, so any further rally at the open is a gift to the bulls & the reading
DOES CALL FOR A GOOD START
but the 14th shows a lower day and the reading confirms it
15th HOWEVER EXPLODES again to 600
and holds well on the 16th
more later
Jay
Sam
we really need to learn to TRADE EACH DAY AS IT COMES.
especially when its in a downtrend
Uptrends are more forgiving, and there always seems to be one more day at the tops.
Jay
just a long term FYI
apr 20 + 110 = Spt 24
half cycle of 81 days = Aug18th
HIGH to HIGH usually runs about 110 to 113 days
Gets us to JULY22nd
Jay
July 20 is also a Gann turn date
Oh NO!! The futures are Down and I'm going to lose money today cause I'm Long. Craaaap!! Would somebody please bid up the market so I can buy some food today. Pleeeeeeeez!!
Corey
Looks like I might get killed today when this market tanks right from the open. It looks like the gap down is growing into a massive gap down and go, all the way to new lows. not good. tlc
It's all Sam's fault.
jj
Today Friday is a DOWN day. Without a doubt. You can stick a fork in it because today is toast. All longs and will get steamrolled as the shorts pile on top of this sinking ship. Just watch this thing unravel today. The bulls are gonna get slaughtered.
Every indicator is pointing down. Goodluck to all and way to go to those that are holding shorts for a Big profit day today. Yeeehaw!
Calley
Looks like CALLEY is Holding SHORTS
The cycles still call for a LOW, and if it didtn hit yesterday at 4pm, it will occur sometime this AM
Propens index is difficult to read as to when one day ends and another one starts BUT it does show a SLOW start
the MAIN CYCLE today is the 13day at 10:30am.
IF they SPX holds 870 at that time, it would suggest a rally till about 1pm.
258bars @ 2pm should draw it back some, but the day should hit its highs at about 3:45 pm today
Since the 13th shows an initial burst which fails, it would suggest another test of 870.
Jay
Thanks Jay. My gut feeling this morning is that this day might just keep sinking without a recovery. Oh well, we'll see what happens. The bear trend just seems to heavy to mount any kind of 2 or 3 day rally. I see good market technicians, all short this market.
vai phu lan
Its good to see more people negative about today
Neg sentiment breeds a rally
We need to learn to look beyond sentiment
Activity index
100 At 6am
233 at 8am
100 at 9am ADD 30min to one hour
200 at 9:30 Ditto
Propens
plays around the 2994 to 2990 level early then bumps up to
3000 by 3pm to 3:45
3;45 - 2 positive Lunar aspects
power index 300 starts
gets to 450, backs off to 400
and ends at 500
Jay
I will be adding more calls at or near 10;30 if not sooner
remember 9:45 is a typical INITIAL turn, and it looks like it will be a LOW
Jay
Jay,
Dont you think we should retest the 869 SPX then rally
Reza,
I would think so,
BUT
878 right away at 9:35
We have seen this happen b4 where the LOW expected at 4pm HITS AT OPEN
next day
We might have done that today
I will add more calls right now at 10am and more at 10:30 if lower again
but GOLD is also higher after an initial low- same as stocks
Jay
10am
Activity just took a dive from 200 to 133, so IM HOLDING OFF ANY new calls
till 10:30am
Jay
OK I am out all in cash.wait for a bounce to enter short later
thanks jay
sam
This next 30 minutes --! hour is do or die for BULLS. If it can't begin to move higher or make some progress, then it's sayonara baby.
jj
Calley,
Still Yeeehaw??
Sam
Dont go SHORT until Monday at about 11am at the latest
and cover on the 14th
15th = BIG ONE DAY rally and holds on the 16th
higher high on 20th''
the POWER next 10day sis ont eh bull side
BIGGER $$ in other words
Jay
Some analysis Im watching say a bounce to 915 MAX within 1-2 weeks. BUT Oil some say 55, so if that happens it will tk the S&P dn to atleast 845. MY OIL view is it holds at $59 for the mth. Question is timing, hence Jays timing is CRITICAL feedback to our analysis. Thanks Joseph
Its getting close to 10:30 and they are backing off again right on schedule
remember
11am TURNS HIGHER
1pm - 1:30 turns lower
258bars at 2pm
turns higher to 3;30-3:45
midnite HIGH TIDE on Sunday
Jay
OK'
10:30
Im buying
Activity index just popped back up
and Im hungry
Jay
Marcus7:
I am still yeeehawing! Are you blind? I'm winning so far. NOTHING is going to make this market go up --NOTHING!!!! I'm still SHORT and shorting even more as this market implodes to new lows. It's toast like a stuffed pig.
calley
Thanks jay, I am going to waiy for july 22 hih what ever that is. it could be 905,912 or even 930,956 though very unlikely.
may dribble small amount on long, when we trun positive.
sam
Marcus7:
I'm the "man-with-the-golden-gun". yeah baby. that's right. I'm "007" Bond...James Bond. Oh behave.
calley
Calley,
Today is down so far as the futures
already were when you made that call.
But, longs are not getting 'slaughtered' or 'steamrolled'.
Marcus7:
Give it some time. The day is young. By the end of the day your longs will look as flat as a pankake with strawberry jam splattered all over the place.
Speak to hand baby...yeahhh!
calley
I think Calee deserves credit, when we expected market to go down, market was up. Calee was with up call. When we are expecting up, Calee is calling down. So far he is right sort of
once more the activity index jumped UP again
now at 266
258bars at 2pm SHould be the BIG TURN of the day
All my other scientific indexes are pointing to a higher close as posted b4
Since the BRADLEY is the 14th , it would make a good spot to hit and hold the lows as the 15th shows promise for bigger turn to the 20th
Jay
To test the 870 again.
Calley,
With all due respect do you have a trading record we could look at??
Such as marketguru.com, posted trades on discus, twitter, etc.
Marcus7:
??
most of those gurus are morons. The best traders either remain silent or to embarrassed to sell advice cause they "TAKE" too much money away from mediocre traders which are 90% of market. I suppose you think that doctors can be trusted or that anybody with a degree is smart, or that if you have a license to practice, you're gonna be good, or if you're a priest, he can never lie. c'mon marcus.
calley
NYSE ARCA INSTITUTIONAL INDEX
if it breaks 415-420 is broken this will alrm us that that S&P/DOW will drop. The data I have reviewed from another source states that in all cases this index dropped 1st before the S&P dies.... Were down 5% on this today thus far. I want and need a bounce to say 915 : )
Calley,
Posted trades real time don't lie.
They establish some credibility. It's the record that counts not the license, diploma or title. The public record. If you are going to proclimate then you should have a record to back it up. You can post at marketguru for free.
At 8:02 am when you posted your
down today proclamation, the Dow future were already down 62 points.
There now down 72. That's 10 dow points in 4 hours.
"the ONLY thing that could DRAG it lower at 10:30 would be the 13 day cycle completion 100%"
You were just an hour off.
I'll pontificate right here on Jay's because I like Jay's work and I like his blog.
Where's your track record?
calley
got in small bullish position spx calls
sam
I don't pontificate or suggest that I KNOW where the market is going to go, or lead anyone to think that I do. I simply react to the market, I
don't predict. I'm at marketguru.com
posting real time when I can. The market is now down 8 points since you
proclaimed longs would get steamrolled. You can still go to marketguru and place a short trade.
marcus7:
So 8 points so far is better than no points. Waht's your problem? It ain't over yet.
Nuff said. Stop bothering me you weirdo.
calley
"stop bothering me you weirdo"
ROTFLMAO
JJ
It's now UP 13 since your "longs are gonna get steamrolled". And why the name calling Calley?? How old are you?
I am with Jay for next week for rally. Opex week
OK guys
LETS keep this BUSINESS like
No infighting please
I do have the ability to remove any posting, and I have used it from time to time.
Coy;
THE 13day low seems to have HIT at 11:30, one hour late, exactly
the 258bar cycle backed off a little - just 2spx pts + one hour extension = 3pm @ 270bars
AND it matches the
activity Index which has dropped off from 300, now at 200 at 2pm.
Jay
I agree with Jay's rally next week, also. Rally especially accellerated Thursday and Friday.
Just can't agree with Monday. Have it finishing down. I know Jay is calling it a high energy day.
COY,
If yuve been reading thru the thread, I have adjusted my outlook for Monday and posted it several times
Jay
Monday, if we have a gap down, then rally from there I guess until Tue and Wed
From a heliocentric astro standpoint we have Mercury in opposition to Earth 10:00PM Monday night. IMO, we need to get past that point.
Thanks Jay,
Enjoy your vacation time. Send us a photo. Enjoy your golf and time to yourself.
Craig
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