FROM TIME & CYCLES , which you can access right from this blogthis is my FIRST look at it, and you can see how closely Chanakya matches my projections
Just as I posted, a 3pm to 3:30 rebound, of sorts, nothing to write home about
And can you believe it an extra 15 minutes today???
Ive mentioned the 40 point rule of thumb several times
from 666 + 280 = 946 which was the closing high on June12th
946 - 40 = [906] - 40 = [866] - 40 = [826] - 40 = [786]
WE have SEEN these numbers contrived my other methods
but this one is really very simple
Since 906 has been breached, we now look for 866
and so forth if also breached at each level
Jay
28 comments:
Jay:
Re MONDAY.
I have been traveling to the other side of the world, hence the silence.
Your work calls for a big down on Monday. I took a look at how that may o may not line up with the wave structure.
The end of day Friday 898.02, or rather a lower low at 6 PM in after mkt at eqvlt of 893, counts well as completed 5 waves from 931.62 top. with the flatest imaginable wave iv and difficult to locate wave ii.
However, a look at FTSE shows textbook wave ii and iv, with v ending early Friday UK time and a of 2 completed before deep b correction by London closing.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^FTSE&t=5d
See the clear wave ii of 1 in London formed when US was sleeping on Thursday night?
London should do c of 2 before NY opens and ready for wave i of 3.
Normally, in US one would expect Monday AM to be spent on wave 2 recovery up, before start of any wave 3. Would wave 2 in US happen before the close?
Jay, does your work indicate a rally early Monday AM, before next drop?
Ravi
NON STOP to a LOW on Tuesday at noon
and rally waves insignificant and very short
Tuesday noon
78.6% of the 13 day cycle 2 11:55
MEETS 258 bars at noon
Any potential for any kind of uptick on MONDAY should come also after 12Noon = 180bars
As the end of this down wave completes on Tues at noon, then they can mount a rebound into
Thsday at 3pm where the last hour should emulate oct27th, 2008
Go back and look at oct27th if you can- that was the last such convergence of the 2 cycle LOWS that are repeating the process on the 9th at 4pm
Jay
Ravi
It great to travel, but it is hard to stay in touch at the same time.
I WILL BE on VACATION from 12th to18th and will only have limited access- BUT will not need much
the market is on schedule to make a short term bottom on the 9th and
recover thru the 22nd
I WILL BE LONG and holding from the 10th to the 22nd.
Chankya's map is IMO, a VERY ACCURATE projection of the SUMMER 2009
Jay
Every blogger I follow is negative on Monday. With this pervasive bearishness, either the Market WILL go down big time (-3% or more)or the contrarians will take charge and nothing significant significant will take place (-2% or less). I'll be on alet but I'll try to follow the Bradley model and start being bearish after mid july.
jj
I'm long. I sold FAZ Friday at the close, bought SSO in the aftermarket. I know I'm going against heavy sentiment, but I going with my own tech work.
I get a little solace in the tide.
Tide update -
Jul 05, 3.4 Sunday Reference
Jul 06, 3.5
Jul 07, 3.6
Jul 08, 3.6
Jul 09, 3.6
Jul 10, 3.5
And I found someone sortof in my camp:
http://uidezine.blogspot.com/2009/07/this-is-why-mkts-could-be-up-next-week.html?dsq=12181924#comment-12181924
Coy
Jay, previouly you had mentioned that July 9 4 PM close will be the best low and reversal on upside on 10th. Now do you see July 9 thursday 3 PM as a low? and then upside?
Ravi and Jay, do you see fib bounce from spx 886 as you had projected. In Japan, already futures are at 888 i.e. spx at 892.. from 886 to 896 and then down to 866?
it looks like either Jay's shallow or dip Y is playing out. If bounce go above 896 to 906 it would be shallow Y to 866, if bounce stops at 895 then we see 821.
Jay it seems you sre looking for 821 is that by July 9 ?
thanks
sam
Coy is getting KILLED!!!!!
tlc
Coy,
Dont you think you owe it to yourself to at least wait OUT MONDAY
YOU know how accurate the cycles are
there si a 78.6%/ 13day cycle and 258barr cycle are converging TUESDAY at noon
From there, I DO SEE a temp upswing to 3pm on the 9th and then another collapse in the last hour
IN my NOTES, you will be proud to know that I recorded your outlook as positive the WHOLE week of Oct 21 to 26
I see this week as VERY similar to that one of Oct2008
TOPPED on the 20th @SPX985 &
closed at 848 at 4pm on the 27th
The 27th was UP 200 at its HIGH point and LOST all of that PLUS 200 more int he last 30 minutes
INCREDIBLE as it seems -MY power index is SHOWING Me the SAME thing for the 9th as on Oct27th.
OCT 27th
A 4/8 day cycle
converging with
a 13day cycle completion @4pm
THIS WILL BE A GREAT PLACE TO BUY LONG-
Chankya's chart is excellent
YOU can find more analysis like his at ians time& cycles site which is LINK referenced on my blog
more later
Jay
Jay and Ravi etc
I have no positions ...want to get short for the next few weeks and hold... When would be a good time to jump ?? Thanks eric
Thinking about reloading around 910to 912 SPY?? Any ideas?? And just stay short Eric
Hi Jay, how doyou see today's action now. how are your activity indiactors? thanks
sam
Jay,
I appreciate your genuine concern. You have been highly accurate in your tech work. I'm elated when I'm agreeing with yours. Overall we seem to be on the same track. I'm just seeing a little divergence here I'm compelled to follow. I'm not saying I'm right. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out in the last hour.
Your diligence in day to day updating is greatly appreciated.
Best
Coy
THE BOTTOM IS IN!!!!!!!!!!!!
FOR NOW!!!!!!!!!
jj
Eric
How can you plan to stay short for 2 or 3 weeks??
Havent YOU been reading my blog?
I dont know how many times I have to put up the data for the low
on the 9th.
Jay
It would be nice when someone makes
a proclamation,(the bottom is in) if they would give a brief explanation.
Thanks
Hi Jay, Ravi and all, do you agree the low of today has replaced the low of July 9th close, or is this just a trap??? Today open goes dn to 888 or close, then bounces to slightly even on a whim... Will we then go down to July 9th as Jay/Ravi indicated or as mentioned is the low in today??
Feedback would be appreciated,
Im sure its all on our minds : ) Its now 2:30 EST approx and were even on the DOW. My CDN TSX analysis lists 9750 as the support and were at 10000 now. OIL HS is at 63.50 and were there now as we spk, we probaly will go dn 2 bucks more or so.... TSX 10050 was the 50 day mv avg and 9950 is Fib 23%. If OIL goes dn so does the DOW/S&P and TSX.......
Your thoughts Jay, Ravi and all
Jay
As you mentioned close out short on Jul 9. Rally from 10 thru 22. Then reshort.
Hi Jay, your Canadian bro, Thanks Jay/Ravi for your feedback throughout this process, you have saved me from grief not only from myself but my family, THANKS brother!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jay.....Sorry read it wrong JAY SAID I WILL BE on VACATION from 12th to 18th and will only have limited access- BUT will not need much
the market is on schedule to make a short term bottom on the 9th and
recover thru the 22nd
I WILL BE LONG and holding from the 10th to the 22nd.
Thanks Jay
Marcus- My thoughts exactly
Joseph- Your very welcome
It makes me VERY happy to read that someone here is benefiting besides me.
JJ;
How can the bottom be IN today??
Jaywiz index
Last WEEK
18
60
28
26
QUITE BEARISH
Wave "A"
June 11to 23rd = 6days= 39hrs
what makes you think wave "C" is going to end in less time from the 30th at 10am.
6 days from June29 = July9th at 4pm
THIS IS NOT GUESSWork
its technical & cycle analysis
Jay
thanks Coy
I keep working In between the POOL and GOLF
I consider this blog MY BUSINESS
BUT I earn $ only on my trading
Jay
Thanks jay and ravi. I looked at your previous posts. It seems that since 895 is holding here we working on deep Y to 866 and then 821. Any thoughts Jay based on your current readings.
sam
activity index did DROP this AM to
66 at the lows today and has been up to 200 in between;
ITS NOW at 100 and im watching to see if it takes dive in the next 30 minutes
Propens index also showed a low this and and recovery, with drop off late and into tomrrow.
Power index is on a SLOPE all week
but intraday is hard to read on it
As a "C" wave we really should see last hour declines
Jay
Ravi
It does look like 5 waves completed this AM for wave 1 of "C"
now in wave 2
wave 1 took 13 hours from 11am high to 11 am low
wave 2 = 6.5 hours or less = today's close or near it ?
THEN
projecting wave 3 of 3 for 13 hours to close of 8th
wave 4 most of 9th
wave 5 last hour on 9th
Jay
Thanks jay and ravi this makes it clearer
sam
From a COBRA blog we should see a big down day tomorrow -- agreeing with Jay's projections.
http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/
"SPY, UUP and VIX have carved out a reversal bar on the daily chart, it seems like that the market is ready to reverse its course here except for one thing: both VIX and SPX were up today. From the chart bellow we can see (dashed vertical lines) that 7 out of 8 recently when both VIX and SPX were up on the same day, the next day wasn’t very pleasant"
GAP UP TOMORROW!!!!!!!!!
jj
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