NOTICE a couple things
Tomrrows OPEN rally my have ALREADY occurred
AN A"B "C rebound is quite clear OFF the 2:30 LOD
which looks like 5 wves DOWn from the 10:15 HOD
OBV is LACKING on the last hour rally - compare it to the high at 1;20
it STAYED FLAT
MACD rolled over
ULT OSC heading lower right at the close
this configuration has led to a LOWER OPEN may times
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Suppose 329 bars as a cycle completion low at noon today
It leads to 126bars at 4pm Tomrrow
OR
using 108bars today, we still get to 204 bars at close tomrrow
IN addition, since 126bars was DUE at 4pm, they
OFTEN OPEn on the BAR CYCLE LOW which means a
SMASH DOWN OPEN
the chart confirms that premise
They got spx 869.32 at the low today in the second set of 5 waves at 2;30pm
930-870=60pts
67 pts matches the 956-890 wave 1 or A
wave B got back to 930
930 - 67 = 862 which has been mentioned many times
HOWEVER,
67 x 1.618 = 108pts
930-108 = 822
I know it hard to imagine all that in one day, but????????
NOT unreal as it would be 460 dow points & 58 spx pts
Lets hope for the best so we can also BUY the close
It would appear right now that whatever is lost tomrrow
will be quickly regained on Friday
Jay
23 comments:
Sharp rally coming next 2 days.
I don't know guys. I see Big Positive Divergences on Daily, 60min, 30 min timeframes indicating IT term rally beginning. Secondly, looking at other indexes, I see lot's more room and time to GAP up tomorrow and even if we don't, I think the rally continues. I can't ignore the blatantly obvious that I see. If you don't believe me look at your own charts and try and deny a BIG reversal underway. All I know is that this one is going to leave a lot of traders chasing ...AGAIN.
Blanket
Jay. one of the very good ew blog has similar scenario;
821 is very likely tomorrow. Evening es activity will tell. if we go straight down or a bounce and then down.
sam
http://www.bostonwealth.net/wp-content/uploads/es-eod-8jul2009.jpg
Because of this and the fact that this needs to be a 5 wave move to what I believe is the proper minimal typical target for a W4, I changed my settings to the “long count” on GET. Notice that by doing that, it implies something different than a pure extended W5. Both scenarios are valid, and we will know when ES begins to follow the red arrows or the blue. Either way the bottom is in site IMO.
1.thank you to follower# 71 for registering and welcome
ANON- please identify yourself with at least an initial - thanks
LARRY TV agrees with ME 100%
YES - big rally coming on the 10th, but until we get thru THOSE CYCLE Convergences on a NEGATIVE astro day of which today was NOT, then we have to WAIT for tomrrow to finish its work,
Ians site is on my links and it is LOADED with GOOD technicians
who provide some very timely
analysis
in other words, I attempt to have my outlook agree with some others , but some times I do vehemently disagree with them- not sure which scenario works out best.
I have mentioned my POWER INDEX MANY TIMES
IT SHOWS A LOW TOMRROW, and subsequent rally on FRIDAY
Propesnity index also shows tomrow down with a rally on Friday- HOW much more can you ask for??
Just because I couldnt make the mtk crash today, doesnt mean it wont do it tomrrow. [g]
Jay
GOLD crumbled just as I said it would- saw the pinched Bollinger bands on Tuesday.
896 is critical support and I might
from May5th, and it might just hold, but even if broken, it only means a lower level is in the future as low as 840, but NOT this week, unless by some miracle its tomrrow, but I really doubt that
more later
Jay
Yeah but if you look at all the different index charts , you see Falling Bullish wedges on all of them, textbook falling wedges , ALL patterns having been broken to the upside. This has Reversal signature all over the place. You can also see "W" patterns having formed as a resul t of falling BULLISH WEDGE patterns breaking out to the upside. I have rarely seen ever, these patterns when broken not marking a reversal. This is as plain as the nose on your face stuff.
Blanket
Futures going up, still holding shorts
PROPENSITY INDEX CONFIRMS
DOWN CLOSE
It also confirms the rally from yestrday and NOW we got he Employment report and futures not crumbling, BUT not gaining anything on the report either
thats the BUBA MEISER junk
Now the real mkt
I REFER YOU TO OCT 27th
IT WAS UP 200 pts at 3:30,
IT NOT ONLY LOST that 200 but added another 200 to close DOWN 204
THE NEXT DAY WAS UP 900 pts
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PROPENS index shows a gain from yesterday at 2994 to 3000, then PROCEEDS TO CLOSE TODAY at 2990
SOOOO, ANY gains this morning should be LOST by days end
on the converging cycles
__________________________
I wont be in the game next week, but heres the power index view
Monday opens hgher, and is a good setup for a lower day on Tuesday
WEd, it jumps from an open at 300 to a high of 600 and holds that thru Thursday
thats as far as it goes for now
Jay
jay when do you see, time wise, the top occuring? around noon or earlier or wait uhtil 2 to 3 PM?
thanks for your help. have a great vacation and we will surely miss you.
sam
I'm already missing you Jay. Please come back soon. We are all depending on you for guidance through these turbulent times. All the best to you and yours on your vacation. Watch out for the Jelly fish. Please don't step on any .
Mark
Get up there you stupid stock market. Ahhhhhhhhhhhh! Soooooo frustrating!!!
Where's Ravi???
OKAY! Looks like I'm right and we won't make another low today. The bottom is in and we are heading up on a reversal day yesterday. I hope everyone covered their Shorts and caught this locomotive to da moon.
Blanket
Yesterday was a strange bottom in some respects , but I think it was intentionally done to leave Bulls behind and delay the shorts from covering thus fueling the rally along the way. Got a long while to go yet. Stair-stepping higher cause there's a lot of doubters and I can't wait for the cnbc crowd to jump in near the top as usual.
blanket
thanks for registering follower # 72 and welcome
Blanket
everything you wrote is true
BUt the CYCLE is STILL IN CHARGE
My propensity index shows a LATE SELL OFF today to close on a LOW
Power index shows last minute drop
I WILL BE READY TO BUY LONG on
the close , and any rally we get tomrrow should roll over to most of Monday.
But I will be traveling and will close out that position tomrrow at
or near 4pm
Jay
OK Thanks Jay for your Update. Appreciate any observations you make.
Carl
Down she goes!!!
sammy
Yup
Jay are getting out at close? no matter how little down we go?
the reason I ask is that has anything changed in your model for tomoorow.
thanks for your help
sam
Jay,
Based on today's scenario seems may have gap down open. Any updates for us
JAY. OKaY. So we gap UP big-time tomorrow at open right? According to your work, tomorrow is BIG time UP...UP...UP....right? I mean it sure feels like it wants to go much higher. The day closed on a high note with cycles pointing higher...right?
Anyway...I'm Long and Strong
Steve
I think we go down tomorrow am as it seems that the cycles have shifted few hours. That is what has been happening this week.
what is your take here Jay?
thanks again. everything seem to play out what you have been projecting.
sam
NO! We could just as easily Gap UP tomorrow. Cycles can turn up on a dime.
steve
....and some bigger cycles are still pointing straight up. sO IT DEPENDS ON WHAT CYCLE YOU'RE LOOKING AT.
Gap UP
steve
sam:
Jay said we'd make new lows today. What'dya mean "according to plan"?
jj
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