ravi,this looks like a minor 3 here,with 995ish cash 2.618x wave1.so im hoping this could be the end of 3 and we should creep lower today in 4 before 5 up for a top tomorrow.the 3 day cycle suggests the same and has been working very well lately.
I doubt that any of you are making any gains ever. It is all a joke of what you are writing here with useless analysis.
I am sorry to be harsh but I have lost money on shorts as most of your short term predictions are non functional and not even close. You may not even understand markets because your vision is only micro and not macro hence your ideas are based on mere speculative facts and not reality. Sorry brothers. I am not going to follow any of you. Lost enough already.
why would you stay short or short in front of this potential breakout? Look at the up volume breadth today. There was clues yesterday afternoon that this would happen.
flash posted both days 7/30 & 7/31 as change dates
I have been projecting Friday as the IMPORTANT potential plunge date several times as per CYCLES, astro, and the readings. Power index also at 250 level, just waiting for propens to confirm
ACTIVITY index has now DROPPED to 133 and holding that level for 30 minutes so far
Let follow this July6th 870spx low to july30th high @ 998
Murry math level above 971 add 16 =987 + 8 = 995 where we are right now at 996.10 nearing the 11am hourly high.
The readings seem to be saying that even if we hit a peak today, ITS NOT OVER until at least Aug7th, and maybe even Aug 17th before the bear re-appears again
IF that is so, then HOW does today and tomrrow, fit into the WAVE?
March 9th to today = 100 tr days March 9th to Aug 17 = 112 tr days from LOW to HIGH which makes it 120 days from low to low from March 9th to Aug27th.
The trend from March 9th to today has NO "B" wave break
If 1005 is the ultimate target, AND we are still looking for the "B wave break, it can only happen with the support of the hard aspects this wkend and tomrrow
If that is so, then we mght look at the previous math model with some variations
48 pts in one day = 955 area and dow loss of 385 pts
Now, Bob B talking about a last hour rally each day this week. Do they really expect it to duplicate that effort today? Yes, they do, and thats the bear hook.
slightly miscalculated earlier,the 2.618 of wave 1 should have read 996.3.we hit 997.1 and have headed lower,if correct we should see 985 minimum before the next leg up begins,if not we better all jump on the bloomberg bandwagon and buy buy buy!lol
Reamed, your going all in on Jays calls which doesnt always work. You piece in and piece out in chunks, never all im bro. Jays timing is great and has worked for me but you need to sort of make your own call as well. Personally I believe on the TSX anything under 11000 is great value and if you buy and wait a tad you will be rewarded.Even the BPTSE index is approaching expensive so it makes sense to start to take profits or short for the "short-term" Anyhow, I said I was selling and I did, I took profits on the TSX at 10750, I said last week and this week that Thurs/Fri would be up and cautioned shorts. However my skill set does not even come close to Jay and Ravi so as mentioned in the begining of this chat, dont ever go all in all at once and if you see the tide turtning take some out to be safe... capital preservation versus big wins
I'll say this again. YOU WILL LOSE MONEY FOLLOWING Jaywiz (not much of a wizard). I should know, I have lost PLENTY OF MONEY FROM THIS SITE AND XTrends (Anthill's site). I could have bought a The 2010 GLK350 SUV in cash with money to spare.
Jay will say the market will "DROP" and push the date off until the day it does "drop" (small drop, rather than a big "DROP") and then claim victory. But then when you look down at your account, it will be way down due to your earlier short position. That's because Jay's writing keeps you in your short until it is too late (unless you want to sell at a loss again). It infuriates me that this guy is still posting his CHIT!
The best way to make money is to do the EXACT OPPOSITE of what Jay says.
This is Sam (not the "sam" who continues to blindly follow someone he doesn't know)
Another thing. The market is up because of the cycles, not earnings reports. Earnings reports, FED announcements, or Jim Cramer cannot move market cycles .
So take your useless mumbojumbo earnings and take off.
Sure thing guys, my message was not to take credit. Nor am I the type of person to lash out due to if youve lived a hard life in a tough area as I have you learn to be peacefull. My intent was to defend Jay, not like he needs my defence but some folks were upset that they were loosing money due to his calls but forget when theyve made money on Jays calls... My intent was to say that you need to make a few choices on your own as I did, this time it worked, other times it wont but I limit my risk by piecing in. And yes my friend, we have gone up on earnings due to what the media is presenting even if its not the case. The TSX will close up FRI, thats my view and my money is where my mouth is....
Anyhow, Im sorry if I upset you, my intent was just to defend Jay that. Cheers, Joe
How do you explain when stocks fall after good earnings reports?
It happens you know. How long have you been trading that you don't know this Joe. Get real. How do you explain That.
It's NOT THE NEWS that drives markets. You have to look at the reaction of the markets to news--good or bad.
Will you be heeer when the market tanks on good earnings? huh?
What was this rally from March 8 all about? All the news was self-depricating. World was going to get nuked, economies were failing, doom and gloom Earnings were abysmal........But the market rallied!
Bro, it was clear that the market sentiment was if earnings came in better than what folks thought and not hs bad what many expected..... This drove the market, the same idea is happening now. My expectations is the TSX is a great buy below 11000. Also if you follow history when in a recession and the banks took a kick to the throat they are known to bounce back up really nicely, hence my TD has really doubled.... Earnings are not as bad as what folks are expecting and thats what is driving the market. All I can say is if Im wrong then I loose money. Why Im replying to you is so that others dont get fooled by your one-sided thought process and loose money. As I said, everyone is happy-happy when Jay makes a call or Ravi and they make money but when they loose they complain... Play small bets, piece in and piece out. Use different data and trading styles but keep your core foundation of trading if over history it has worked. My last post to you bro is you need to be open minded to ther folks comments. Were in a scrap with the market, when in hand to hand combat you use what works and mix up the styles. You learn from your mistakes, one is loosing money, others is you get smashed in the face but at the end of the day you learn from it. What I have learned is I value what Jay says but I make my own calls and final choice based on his data, a few other folks and ME !!!!!!!!
I don't like your methodology. It will get people killed.
What you think is moving markets is just coincidence.
AGAIN I ask you to explain why markets fall after good earnings reports? and don't tell me it doesn't happen because every trader here knows it does. So your reasoning is flawed.
Markts are moved by other forces. Some people have a good grasp on them and some do not. Period.
You are the one that is close-minded that you have allowed the street to dtermine your positioning. Get real
I guess I was a dummy to buy in on the TSX on March 20th. Well I can say my parents are happy I did this for them and so is my family. Like I said, I mix my own TA, of course Jays site, TheChartpatternTrader, Danny EWT site, EvilSpec and a few others. My broker sends me a report called the technical Speculator who is based out of Vancouver Canada. I review all this data on a daily basis and then make my call to swing trade, not day trade..... Anyhow, the sites I follow say we rise to approx the end of 1st week of AUG…. For the TSX my sell is 11100 MA350, support 10500. OIL shd be sold at $68.... I believe as stated that FRI will be UP. The next comment stuff is for the 2 Stiffs that were bad mouthing Jay and of course me for making a comment....
Essentially, the looser is ME if my calls are wrong. Not you or Jay/Ravi etc,,, My family and I loose….. My call as of March 20th was not 100% skill, of course I flooked it off somewhat, of course there was risk in the call, of course I was lucky, BUT I made the call and it was ME who pressed the BUY button and it worked out.
I wish you the best and its not the way to do things or honourable to attack folks behind a PC or blame Jay/Ravi that your down. In my town, you would be smoked brother, even if you were a class-A fighter, sooner or latter brother someone would have your ticket and show you a tad of respect..... Hence, dont be so negative, be cool and open minded man. All the best bro : )
For the group, my view with respects to fundamental analysis and not TA/EWT is at times world events such as China making certain coments, well known media, OIL, Bullish% index topping, XII taking profits, COT reports PUT/Call ratio, VIX, curerncies, some markets lead others as a warning signal such as transports and lastly FEAR !!!!!!!!! Folks have been burned and some will take profits just to try to regain some of their loss's. I dont blog very often due to I work fulltime as a ENG. so I hope I was able to offer some folks some value thru this dumbass rant I had to respond to, at a minimum just to support Jay/Ravi in their efforts due to some STIFFs like to bad mouth folks and forget that JAY/Ravi have made them money in the past..... Sorry Jay/Ravi to clog up your blog, I should have stopped after the first response but I guess......... Wont happen again, I give you my word. Joseph;
If I knew the answer to the question 100% of the time I would not be at my PC working as an Eng. I would be doing charity work and a multi billonaire... I said my peace and I gave my view as to why this sometimes occurs. All the best.
GDP data to watch Friday July 31st ################################### Anyhow, here is some data on the GDP comments I have been making last week to watch out for this Friday. Picked this up from a site i follow... Friday 8:30am GDP- -1.5% consensus, -5.5% prior Core PCE 2.4% consensus, 1.6% prior Chain deflator 1.0%, 2.8% Employment cost index 0.3%, 0.3% The component revisions to GDP were minor, resulting in only a modest revision to first quarter real GDP to -5.5% from a previously reported -5.7%. Nothing significant jumps out from the data. The upward revision to GDP was primarily the result of a smaller decline in inventories than previously reported. Government expenditures were also revised higher, showing just a 3.1% annual rate of decline compared to a previously reported -3.5%. # Other key components were actually revised lower. Personal consumption expenditures were revised to +1.4% from +1.5%. Exports were revised to show a 30.6% decline from a previously reported 28.7% drop.
Dollar was weak Q2 so net exports should be up which would increase GDP. Gov't expenditures as well, the question is will it be enough to meet estimates? Market is expecting GDP -1.5% and if number comes in at -1% or 0%......
Markets tank after good Earnings because investors are too exuberant and have bid the market up too high so it must retrace. Like now it is parabolic and we have come too far too fast
42 comments:
I think Ravi expects it to run up to 999 to 1005 as per his last comments.
it is the last two days of the month. typically, last 2 days and beginning of new month are up because of new $ coming in from
401k's.
Jay, look @ the fractal fred posted late yesterday, before the one you have as today's chart -
the target is 1006.
futures are already 986
vj
activity jumped to 200 b4 open, and dropped to 166 where it has been FLAT for at least one hour
I will report significant changes on it today.
wve e of iv completed as per Ravi yesterday at 1;30pm
which was within the ORB of the 220 bar cycle & the 13 day cycle a little earlier
the WVE "V" -5 UPTHRUST off wve e of 4 should only be equal to the widest part of the back of the triangle which was 104 dpw pts
or spx 13.43pts
9:45 am up thrust might be all they get so far to 988.30, and yes thats a new high for this run.
the reading still stands
dont follow the crowd
A rosy picture is NOT to be believed
How many times weve seen this kind of rally fizzle on so called good employment news
IM standing PAT with my positions
as of 9:45am
Jay
So we are in the 5th wave thrust finally. It has met the minimum 987 cash eqvlnt target in pre-market already.
That may be it, or that is only i of (v), in which case 999 to 1005 is within the range.
(i) 869.32 887.86 18.54
(ii)887.86 872.81-15.05 81.2%
(iii) 872.81 979.42 106.61
(iv) 979.42 968.65 -10.77 10.1%
(v) 968.65 987.19 18.54 (v)= (i)
(v) alt 968.65 998.65 30.00 1.618
(v) alt+ 968.65 1005.73 37.08 2
Ravi
I moved up his projections to the current thread
Jay
thanks Jay
So we are in the 5th wave thrust finally. It has met the minimum 987 cash eqvlnt target in pre-market already.
That may be it, or that is only i of (v), in which case 999 to 1005 is within the range.
(i) 869.32 887.86 18.54
(ii)887.86 872.81-15.05 81.2%
(iii) 872.81 979.42 106.61
(iv) 979.42 968.65 -10.77 10.1%
(v) 968.65 987.19 18.54 (v)= (i)
(v) alt 968.65 998.65 30.00 1.618
(v) alt+ 968.65 1005.73 37.08 2
Note that (iv) was from 979.42 to 968.65, though the hi within triangle was 982.5 or so.
The opening may be it OR we may go to 999-1005 area. See the three alternatives for (v) above.
Ravi
Looking at internals of wave (v) from e of (iv), we needed atleast one down up from 9:45. This comes up with 992-993 as another target.
added a bit to short . from 70% to 80%. will go to 100% if we near 1000
Ravi
ravi,this looks like a minor 3 here,with 995ish cash 2.618x wave1.so im hoping this could be the end of 3 and we should creep lower today in 4 before 5 up for a top tomorrow.the 3 day cycle suggests the same and has been working very well lately.
Jay, I've not been following the crowd. I've been following you. I'm losing my shirt via your Thursday super sell-off call. Where did you go wrong?
Reamed
I doubt that any of you are making any gains ever. It is all a joke of what you are writing here with useless analysis.
I am sorry to be harsh but I have lost money on shorts as most of your short term predictions are non functional and not even close. You may not even understand markets because your vision is only micro and not macro hence your ideas are based on mere speculative facts and not reality.
Sorry brothers. I am not going to follow any of you. Lost enough already.
why would you stay short or short in front of this potential breakout? Look at the up volume breadth today. There was clues yesterday afternoon that this would happen.
flash posted both days 7/30 & 7/31 as change dates
I have been projecting Friday as the IMPORTANT potential plunge date several times
as per CYCLES, astro, and the readings.
Power index also at 250 level, just waiting for propens to confirm
ACTIVITY index has now DROPPED to
133 and holding that level for 30 minutes so far
Let follow this
July6th 870spx low to july30th high @ 998
Murry math level above 971
add 16 =987 + 8 = 995
where we are right now at 996.10 nearing the 11am hourly high.
The readings seem to be saying that even if we hit a peak today, ITS NOT OVER until at least Aug7th, and maybe even Aug 17th before the bear re-appears again
IF that is so, then HOW does today and tomrrow, fit into the WAVE?
March 9th to today = 100 tr days
March 9th to Aug 17 = 112 tr days
from LOW to HIGH
which makes it 120 days from low to low from March 9th to Aug27th.
The trend from March 9th to today has NO "B" wave break
If 1005 is the ultimate target, AND we are still looking for
the "B wave break, it can only happen with the support of the hard aspects this wkend and tomrrow
If that is so, then we mght look at the previous math model with some variations
970- 995 Aprox= 125 pts gained
125 X 38.2% = 48pts
48 pts in one day = 955 area
and dow loss of 385 pts
Now, Bob B talking about a last hour rally each day this week.
Do they really expect it to duplicate that effort today?
Yes, they do, and thats the bear hook.
More later
Jay
ANON
when is a break out NOT a break out
Large rallies are NOT Always BREAK OUTS
Jay
ANON<
thats the WHOLE point- THEY WANT YOUR $$ and they want you out
so they can keep your $$
The Media has been FEELING good all week given the lack of a big sell off
I have repeated the readings several times
How can a reading which was printed several months ago, be valid for today??
SIMPLE-
DONT BELIEVE what you see or hear
dont follow the crowd
FRIDAY
difficult encounters
poor communications
$ arguments
ITS STILL COMING TOMRROW
Jay
I WILL BE BUYING TOMRROWS CLOSE
slightly miscalculated earlier,the 2.618 of wave 1 should have read 996.3.we hit 997.1 and have headed lower,if correct we should see 985 minimum before the next leg up begins,if not we better all jump on the bloomberg bandwagon and buy buy buy!lol
Reamed, your going all in on Jays calls which doesnt always work. You piece in and piece out in chunks, never all im bro. Jays timing is great and has worked for me but you need to sort of make your own call as well. Personally I believe on the TSX anything under 11000 is great value and if you buy and wait a tad you will be rewarded.Even the BPTSE index is approaching expensive so it makes sense to start to take profits or short for the "short-term" Anyhow, I said I was selling and I did, I took profits on the TSX at 10750, I said last week and this week that Thurs/Fri would be up and cautioned shorts. However my skill set does not even come close to Jay and Ravi so as mentioned in the begining of this chat, dont ever go all in all at once and if you see the tide turtning take some out to be safe... capital preservation versus big wins
I think this intraday low will waffle around (a little up, a little down) till about 12:51 before heading higher into the close.
I'll say this again. YOU WILL LOSE MONEY FOLLOWING Jaywiz (not much of a wizard). I should know, I have lost PLENTY OF MONEY FROM THIS SITE AND XTrends (Anthill's site). I could have bought a The 2010 GLK350 SUV in cash with money to spare.
Jay will say the market will "DROP" and push the date off until the day it does "drop" (small drop, rather than a big "DROP") and then claim victory. But then when you look down at your account, it will be way down due to your earlier short position. That's because Jay's writing keeps you in your short until it is too late (unless you want to sell at a loss again). It infuriates me that this guy is still posting his CHIT!
The best way to make money is to do the EXACT OPPOSITE of what Jay says.
This is Sam (not the "sam" who continues to blindly follow someone he doesn't know)
Joseph..
Another thing. The market is up because of the cycles, not earnings reports. Earnings reports, FED announcements, or Jim Cramer cannot move market cycles .
So take your useless mumbojumbo earnings and take off.
Hakan
Sure thing guys, my message was not to take credit. Nor am I the type of person to lash out due to if youve lived a hard life in a tough area as I have you learn to be peacefull. My intent was to defend Jay, not like he needs my defence but some folks were upset that they were loosing money due to his calls but forget when theyve made money on Jays calls... My intent was to say that you need to make a few choices on your own as I did, this time it worked, other times it wont but I limit my risk by piecing in. And yes my friend, we have gone up on earnings due to what the media is presenting even if its not the case. The TSX will close up FRI, thats my view and my money is where my mouth is....
Anyhow, Im sorry if I upset you, my intent was just to defend Jay that. Cheers, Joe
How do you explain when stocks fall after good earnings reports?
It happens you know. How long have you been trading that you don't know this Joe. Get real. How do you explain That.
It's NOT THE NEWS that drives markets. You have to look at the reaction of the markets to news--good or bad.
Will you be heeer when the market tanks on good earnings? huh?
What was this rally from March 8 all about? All the news was self-depricating. World was going to get nuked, economies were failing, doom and gloom Earnings were abysmal........But the market rallied!
Get a life Joe.
Hakan
we completed a 61.8% retrace of the first wave down. This should hold, if top is behind us.
Ravi
Bro, it was clear that the market sentiment was if earnings came in better than what folks thought and not hs bad what many expected.....
This drove the market, the same idea is happening now. My expectations is the TSX is a great buy below 11000. Also if you follow history when in a recession and the banks took a kick to the throat they are known to bounce back up really nicely, hence my TD has really doubled.... Earnings are not as bad as what folks are expecting and thats what is driving the market. All I can say is if Im wrong then I loose money. Why Im replying to you is so that others dont get fooled by your one-sided thought process and loose money. As I said, everyone is happy-happy when Jay makes a call or Ravi and they make money but when they loose they complain... Play small bets, piece in and piece out. Use different data and trading styles but keep your core foundation of trading if over history it has worked. My last post to you bro is you need to be open minded to ther folks comments. Were in a scrap with the market, when in hand to hand combat you use what works and mix up the styles. You learn from your mistakes, one is loosing money, others is you get smashed in the face but at the end of the day you learn from it. What I have learned is I value what Jay says but I make my own calls and final choice based on his data, a few other folks and ME !!!!!!!!
Peace be with you bro
Joe
61.8% retrace is 994.24
Take the tp chart, invert it and you have your trade.
C
Joseph:
Never assume anything.
Who says I'm losing money?
I don't like your methodology. It will get people killed.
What you think is moving markets is just coincidence.
AGAIN I ask you to explain why markets fall after good earnings reports? and don't tell me it doesn't happen because every trader here knows it does. So your reasoning is flawed.
Markts are moved by other forces. Some people have a good grasp on them and some do not. Period.
You are the one that is close-minded that you have allowed the street to dtermine your positioning. Get real
hakan
HAHAAHAHAHAH
Jay
Any propensity index updates
Thanks
Jay, you still holding your shorts?? Eric
I guess I was a dummy to buy in on the TSX on March 20th. Well I can say my parents are happy I did this for them and so is my family. Like I said, I mix my own TA, of course Jays site, TheChartpatternTrader, Danny EWT site, EvilSpec and a few others. My broker sends me a report called the technical Speculator who is based out of Vancouver Canada. I review all this data on a daily basis and then make my call to swing trade, not day trade..... Anyhow, the sites I follow say we rise to approx the end of 1st week of AUG…. For the TSX my sell is 11100 MA350, support 10500. OIL shd be sold at $68.... I believe as stated that FRI will be UP. The next comment stuff is for the 2 Stiffs that were bad mouthing Jay and of course me for making a comment....
Essentially, the looser is ME if my calls are wrong. Not you or Jay/Ravi etc,,, My family and I loose….. My call as of March 20th was not 100% skill, of course I flooked it off somewhat, of course there was risk in the call, of course I was lucky, BUT I made the call and it was ME who pressed the BUY button and it worked out.
I wish you the best and its not the way to do things or honourable to attack folks behind a PC or blame Jay/Ravi that your down. In my town, you would be smoked brother, even if you were a class-A fighter, sooner or latter brother someone would have your ticket and show you a tad of respect..... Hence, dont be so negative, be cool and open minded man. All the best bro : )
Joseph.
STOP EVADING THE QUESTION!!!
Are you dull of hearing? Can you not read?
Again I say.Again I say. Again I say.
Please EXPLAIN why markets tank after GOOD EARNINGS REPORTS!!!!!!!!!
hakan
For the group, my view with respects to fundamental analysis and not TA/EWT is at times world events such as China making certain coments, well known media, OIL, Bullish% index topping, XII taking profits, COT reports PUT/Call ratio, VIX, curerncies, some markets lead others as a warning signal such as transports and lastly FEAR !!!!!!!!! Folks have been burned and some will take profits just to try to regain some of their loss's.
I dont blog very often due to I work fulltime as a ENG. so I hope I was able to offer some folks some value thru this dumbass rant I had to respond to, at a minimum just to support Jay/Ravi in their efforts due to some STIFFs like to bad mouth folks and forget that JAY/Ravi have made them money in the past..... Sorry Jay/Ravi to clog up your blog, I should have stopped after the first response but I guess......... Wont happen again, I give you my word.
Joseph;
JOSEPH
You could have stopped this nonsense by just answering the damm question.
BUT YOU WON'T BECAUSE YOU CAN'T!
You put your foot in your mouth with your "markets always move up on good earnings" nonsense.
Now your PRIDE won't allow your good name to be tarnished. Is this how you trade as well? Ouch.
Your PRIDE is too Big. I know youre embarrassed but own up to your mistakes.
WILL YOU STILL ANSWER THE QUESTION?
WHY DO MARKETS TANK AFTER GOOD EARNINGS REPORT?
ESPECIALLY AT A PEAK OR BEFORE A BIG CRASH?
still waiting................
hakan
awe shut up
//Hey Joseph//
why dont you answer da question so i don't have to read all dis chit. u r clogging up da board wit yor bullzshiite.
Blinki
3rd wave down starting?
If I knew the answer to the question 100% of the time I would not be at my PC working as an Eng. I would be doing charity work and a multi billonaire... I said my peace and I gave my view as to why this sometimes occurs.
All the best.
GDP data to watch Friday July 31st
###################################
Anyhow, here is some data on the GDP comments I have been making last week to watch out for this Friday. Picked this up from a site i follow...
Friday 8:30am GDP- -1.5% consensus, -5.5% prior Core PCE 2.4% consensus, 1.6% prior Chain deflator 1.0%, 2.8% Employment cost index 0.3%, 0.3% The component revisions to GDP were minor, resulting in only a modest revision to first quarter real GDP to -5.5% from a previously reported -5.7%. Nothing significant jumps out from the data. The upward revision to GDP was primarily the result of a smaller decline in inventories than previously reported. Government expenditures were also revised higher, showing just a 3.1% annual rate of decline compared to a previously reported -3.5%.
# Other key components were actually revised lower. Personal consumption expenditures were revised to +1.4% from +1.5%. Exports were revised to show a 30.6% decline from a previously reported 28.7% drop.
Dollar was weak Q2 so net exports should be up which would increase GDP. Gov't expenditures as well, the question is will it be enough to meet estimates?
Market is expecting GDP -1.5% and if number comes in at -1% or 0%......
Joseph.
LOL.
Still haven't answered the question.
Oh great. Jay's blog is going to end up filled with nonsense posts filled with CNBC ticker fundamental data.
Just what we need here.
Well Jay. You've been invaded by Kudlow, Cramerand the rest of cnbc staff.
hakan
hakan just adds to the garbage
Markets tank after good Earnings because investors are too exuberant and have bid the market up too high so it must retrace. Like now it is parabolic and we have come too far too fast
Astro
So know you know
so know you know? shesh
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