Hi Guys, If someone has contact to Jay via twitter ask him his view on if July 20/21 will be a higher high than todays closing. Seasonality wise July 20/21 ranks one of the highest days in the mth. Just worried thsat they kill the bears by the squeeze, then bulls jump in and then they take the market down to support again so they kill the bulls,,,,, then again and again.... What do you guys think. Do we hit 936/945 before Aug 1st?? My call was 925 approx by mth end so we flew by that, never expected that....
Yep, but the key is to figure out if we shd get out at that high and short down or will the big boys surprise everyone and keep running this up to 945... My gutt is telling me to hold on cause so many folks are expecting to turn down...
Gutt feeling is tied to fundamentals, i.e what are the politics of the day that may change the game, market sentiment, contrarian views... this is all fundamental analysis which does factor in intuition. No tool can track this. As an example, the CDN dollar did great yesterday and today. TA would say OIL should have went up quite big Yesterday, however it didn’t.... But, I will say you have a grteat point and that is not to get to emotional and just stick to the rules for the most part.
Down tomorrow would crush all who got long today. Thursdays are the weakest day of the week and most open interest is below the market. I'm short on the qqqq for tomorrow.
I agree with all who have bought puts expecting lower prices early tomorrow.....BUT....there's a rebound also tomorrow. Shorts should't let it shake you out because I expect like some, prices going down into the 21st to establish this IT trend as either bullish or bearish making a higher or lower low.
Thanks Jay for your feedback while your away. Appreciate the comments as do all the folks. I believe Thurs will be a up day and possibly Friday as well, then down Mon. Lets wait and see
Sorry, PC powered off due to battery. A few banks still report this week and due to the market-market rules etc.... I believe it will pump Citi, etc...
Everyone (EWI, Kenny, Daneric) is assuming that the head and shoulders pattern is dead, but we still need a blast higher to kill the pattern. I think we at least consolidate lower, as Jay is suggesting, for a few days, before making the high next week, below the 956 previous high (see Jay's prior posting of the smart predictor pattern from www.timeandcycles.com Chanakya/Smartp that he posted on 7/2/09), which was labeled as 7/23 a "Retest /Secondary High." I bought 200 August 36 QQQQ puts at he close today...Doc.
I wanted to also mention that I will exit those QQQQ puts prior to the close on Friday, assuming that we rise again next week toward that secondary retest before 7/23, below S&P 956--even though they are August puts, it is a short term trade only...Doc.
Most likely we did finished a 3rd wave either at Wednesday hi or will do so early Thursday.(Starting from the 872.81 2nd wave low to 933.95 hi if that was it)
These retraces will be slightly higher if we make a slightly higher hi first. 910-912 area more likely but 50% retrace not too unlikely because that will be in iv of 3 area.
his retrace should fit into Jay's call for lower Th and Fr. Wave 5 should then take SPX to above 933.95 or Th morning hi.
Once the first big boy takes his profit, no one will stand around to be the last one to take a profit. It's going to get exciting in a few minutes. You can feel the tension in the pit right now.
Hi, were going up to 945 in my view for next week then down next week, Commercial & smart money has not bought into the bullishness. Need to check when the US GDP is announced next week or so as well, this is a major announcement that we need to look at. We didnt even hit the 38% min Fib after a major run from March so it makes sence we go higher. We had a slight correction from 956 but some folks I follow say for a clear trend to the upside we need to hit 961, if it does beat 961 then were off to 1000. The flip side, if we breach 908 then will test 880/850. What I have noticed is a few diff trading systems that I track and follow say we were a short term buy last week. The problem is timing and Jays site fits that very important piece. I really hope he has a chance to provide his team some direction. If we do correct and break 928 then will hit 908 for sure. If we hold 908 then we have a higher low so close all shorts cause were going up over the mid term. Watch VIX, if it beats 25/26 then this also signals a short term down trend
Jay/Ravi and folks what do you think about next weeks timing, astro,VIX, GDP data, TA, & volume??
First re: Mike at Chartsedge.com. WTF happened last week?! What a tragic daily map meltdown or what. Sadly as hard as that guy works at trying to construct a program that will generate an accurate every day, intraday, week, month....IT AIN'T NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN! When he's wrong, it's the kiss of death! Where's steve70 and all his shilling for chartsedge? Be advised when following Mike's map that you can potentially LOSE YOUR HEAD!!!! Maps are for morons.
Gurus and Predictions I almost fell off from the chair after reading this. (from traders-talk.com). You guys need to step aside and relax sometimes, bull or bear. Thanks for the links, Mike G.
------------------------------------------------
"The market will rally from here or from a lower point."
"The market will head up from here, unless, of course, it can't hold the ____support level"
"this is a time for traders to be careful"
"Our analysis tells us that there are two possible ways this could resolve" (variations of it could go up and it could go down)
"We are getting a fairly solid buy {or sell} signal here, but we suspect that it may be false...."
1) Up into Nov, then down in mid Dec and then a monster rally into Jan and then a big plunge into March - Amateur cycle gurus
2) I strongly beleive a wave C up is about to start or is underway, unless we cut today's lows. If we cut the lows and the support holds, then it means that wave C had not begun and we were still completing the wave B corrrection. OTOH, if the support does not hold, then something else is happening - E-wave guru.
3) Upto into July then all the way down into Dec, unless we invert - Bradley boyz
4) The mercury retrograde is going to cause some severe emotional disturbances the coming week and i urge my subscribers to extra careful next week, as the volatility can go wild - Astro nut.
5) The market will bottom on Oct 13 around 12:00 AM at SPX 793.85 - Nostradamus
6) Given the massive compression, we should either have a massive vertical rise or collapse. However, we can also meander in the range for a few more days - Amateur insights !
7) I think we have begun a new bull market, unless the economy goes into a tailspin in the coming months, in which case it can get really bad too fast. Caution is advised - Economist !
8) The odds of a market rally is very high, given how oversold we are, unless we crash. Cash smells good. - The oversold trader
"We'll have to wait till next week to know for sure which way the market is going". I've heard variations of it thousands of times but guess what? In 40 years of waiting, I've never once heard the follow up "Okay, now that it is next week, we now know for sure which way the market is going and so we will now tell you..........."
46 comments:
blank update or comment cleaner?
Short SPX @ 926
jj
This current correction 4th wave doesn't look like it's going to move much in price. Probably better to go long than short.
carl
Jay
Are u here watching.
The update does not have anything.
jaywiz10534
Following
You follow jaywiz10534
jaywiz10534's updates appear in your timeline.
high today & turn down to friday
from twitter
buforoby
Hi Guys, If someone has contact to Jay via twitter ask him his view on if July 20/21 will be a higher high than todays closing. Seasonality wise July 20/21 ranks one of the highest days in the mth. Just worried thsat they kill the bears by the squeeze, then bulls jump in and then they take the market down to support again so they kill the bulls,,,,, then again and again.... What do you guys think. Do we hit 936/945 before Aug 1st?? My call was 925 approx by mth end so we flew by that, never expected that....
At least another high tomorrow...at least
carl
Yep, but the key is to figure out if we shd get out at that high and short down or will the big boys surprise everyone and keep running this up to 945... My gutt is telling me to hold on cause so many folks are expecting to turn down...
I don't know of any trader who uses "gut" feeling to SUCESSFULLY trade and make money.
U better find a new method.
plk
Gutt feeling is tied to fundamentals, i.e what are the politics of the day that may change the game, market sentiment, contrarian views... this is all fundamental analysis which does factor in intuition. No tool can track this. As an example, the CDN dollar did great yesterday and today. TA would say OIL should have went up quite big Yesterday, however it didn’t.... But, I will say you have a grteat point and that is not to get to emotional and just stick to the rules for the most part.
Okay Joseph. Thanks for clarifying.
plk
Down tomorrow would crush all who got
long today. Thursdays are the weakest
day of the week and most open interest is below the market. I'm
short on the qqqq for tomorrow.
I agree with all who have bought puts expecting lower prices early tomorrow.....BUT....there's a rebound also tomorrow. Shorts should't let it shake you out because I expect like some, prices going down into the 21st to establish this IT trend as either bullish or bearish making a higher or lower low.
plk
down on ths & fri ~ twitr higher next week ~~ 23rd = bear turn to28th as previous projected jay
Thanks Jay for your feedback while your away. Appreciate the comments as do all the folks. I believe Thurs will be a up day and possibly Friday as well, then down Mon. Lets wait and see
Sorry, PC powered off due to battery. A few banks still report this week and due to the market-market rules etc.... I believe it will pump Citi, etc...
Does this mean higher high by 23rd or another test of the 930s?
Jay said
down on ths & fri ~ twitr higher next week ~~ 23rd = bear turn to28th as previous projected jay
Everyone (EWI, Kenny, Daneric) is assuming that the head and shoulders pattern is dead, but we still need a blast higher to kill the pattern. I think we at least consolidate lower, as Jay is suggesting, for a few days, before making the high next week, below the 956 previous high (see Jay's prior posting of the smart predictor pattern from www.timeandcycles.com Chanakya/Smartp that he posted on 7/2/09), which was labeled as 7/23 a "Retest /Secondary High." I bought 200 August 36 QQQQ puts at he close today...Doc.
I wanted to also mention that I will exit those QQQQ puts prior to the close on Friday, assuming that we rise again next week toward that secondary retest before 7/23, below S&P 956--even though they are August puts, it is a short term trade only...Doc.
Hi from India while you sleep:
Most likely we did finished a 3rd wave either at Wednesday hi or will do so early Thursday.(Starting from the 872.81 2nd wave low to 933.95 hi if that was it)
So 4th wave retrace are:
21.4% 920.87
38.2% 910.59
50.0% 903.38
61.8% 896.17
These retraces will be slightly higher if we make a slightly higher hi first. 910-912 area more likely but 50% retrace not too unlikely because that will be in iv of 3 area.
his retrace should fit into Jay's call for lower Th and Fr. Wave 5 should then take SPX to above 933.95 or Th morning hi.
Ravi
first 4 hours this morning will be volatile.
kfc
Attention: From JAY at twitter:
jaywiz10534: cant get on to post at blog jay
These blogs suck.
see twitter
Jay. You should remove the post before you. It'adds no value to anyone here and is immature.
sam
Sam
I agree.
Jay.
I would think that if the decline starts later today then the decline will probably end on Monday.
mark
Jay said on Twitter:
"am now short~~ will be out by fri close~~ jay"
reza:
i know what Jay said. Not everything he says is gold however. But he does start the rumination of thought here on his blog hich is a good thing.
mark
Looks like a short tomorrows open to me.
kk
Buy at Monday morning low end of 4th wave. I repeat that Monday morning is the low.
jj
Also beware of mid-day rally today. Might shakeout ST term bears. Could be very close to intraday highs by the close.
jj
If Jay ain't gonna post then I will take over from her. haha. It's my blog now. hahaha.
tlc
Looks like there won't be a correction. it looks like a running correction that won't let buyers in.
tt
Jay's latest tweet
high may be in , or one more try next week~~jay
LET THE PROFIT TAKING BEGIN!!!!!!
before the weekend
TLC
Once the first big boy takes his profit, no one will stand around to be the last one to take a profit. It's going to get exciting in a few minutes. You can feel the tension in the pit right now.
tlc
From the FLASH:
@traderpsyches time nodes 7/1, 7/6 (oops), 7/8; SIMON says 7/16 next, then (7/22,24,25); chk. my post on 7/9/09 at about 2:54 PM :-)
He's hot man! Next turn on 22nd. Should be a bottom.
mark
Jay ;
You said sell at close Friday. I assume you are extending the time for selling, due to this late sell-off.. right?
curtis
Jay or someone had posted a scenarion by Chankya and it seems to be playing out very closely.
Retest secondary high on July 23 fall thorugh August 1 ( may be 880?) rise to August 9 ( may be 930) and crash to 777 -820)
and then a super rally ( may be to 1050-1150?)
I will keep my on these dates and act accordingly. Things can change day + or - but the directions are generally right on money.
jay what is your take here?
sam
Mark
Can u post tradercyces full web address
Mark,
http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/
So i was wondering, can we expect to see bullish-ness all the way to the 23rd and peak on the 23rd, then drop?
or will the market start sliding from the 20th onwards and on the 23 drop even further??
I was actually hoping for a 23rd high
Please Advice
Hi, were going up to 945 in my view for next week then down next week, Commercial & smart money has not bought into the bullishness. Need to check when the US GDP is announced next week or so as well, this is a major announcement that we need to look at. We didnt even hit the 38% min Fib after a major run from March so it makes sence we go higher. We had a slight correction from 956 but some folks I follow say for a clear trend to the upside we need to hit 961, if it does beat 961 then were off to 1000. The flip side, if we breach 908 then will test 880/850. What I have noticed is a few diff trading systems that I track and follow say we were a short term buy last week. The problem is timing and Jays site fits that very important piece. I really hope he has a chance to provide his team some direction. If we do correct and break 928 then will hit 908 for sure. If we hold 908 then we have a higher low so close all shorts cause were going up over the mid term. Watch VIX, if it beats 25/26 then this also signals a short term down trend
Jay/Ravi and folks what do you think about next weeks timing, astro,VIX, GDP data, TA, & volume??
First re: Mike at Chartsedge.com. WTF happened last week?! What a tragic daily map meltdown or what. Sadly as hard as that guy works at trying to construct a program that will generate an accurate every day, intraday, week, month....IT AIN'T NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN! When he's wrong, it's the kiss of death! Where's steve70 and all his shilling for chartsedge? Be advised when following Mike's map that you can potentially LOSE YOUR HEAD!!!!
Maps are for morons.
Sally
Joseph: This applies to YOU. LOL!
Gurus and Predictions
I almost fell off from the chair after reading this. (from traders-talk.com).
You guys need to step aside and relax sometimes, bull or bear.
Thanks for the links, Mike G.
------------------------------------------------
"The market will rally from here or from a lower point."
"The market will head up from here, unless, of course, it can't hold the ____support level"
"this is a time for traders to be careful"
"Our analysis tells us that there are two possible ways this could resolve" (variations of it could go up and it could go down)
"We are getting a fairly solid buy {or sell} signal here, but we suspect that it may be false...."
1) Up into Nov, then down in mid Dec and then a monster rally into Jan and then a big plunge into March - Amateur cycle gurus
2) I strongly beleive a wave C up is about to start or is underway, unless we cut today's lows. If we cut the lows and the support holds, then it means that wave C had not begun and we were still completing the wave B corrrection. OTOH, if the support does not hold, then something else is happening - E-wave guru.
3) Upto into July then all the way down into Dec, unless we invert - Bradley boyz
4) The mercury retrograde is going to cause some severe emotional disturbances the coming week and i urge my subscribers to extra careful next week, as the volatility can go wild - Astro nut.
5) The market will bottom on Oct 13 around 12:00 AM at SPX 793.85 - Nostradamus
6) Given the massive compression, we should either have a massive vertical rise or collapse. However, we can also meander in the range for a few more days - Amateur insights !
7) I think we have begun a new bull market, unless the economy goes into a tailspin in the coming months, in which case it can get really bad too fast. Caution is advised - Economist !
8) The odds of a market rally is very high, given how oversold we are, unless we crash. Cash smells good. - The oversold trader
"We'll have to wait till next week to know for sure which way the market is going". I've heard variations of it thousands of times but guess what? In 40 years of waiting, I've never once heard the follow up "Okay, now that it is next week, we now know for sure which way the market is going and so we will now tell you..........."
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