we got a HIGH on JUNE11th at 956 and a LOW on Jluy8th at 870
OR
should we count it from JULY1st at 930 to 870 on july8th
???????
In other words we REALLY should be looking NOW for the rebound HIGH
Lets count an a-b-c rebound wave 1 or wave "A" from Jun11 to July 8th as complete
and you know how I feel about doing that too soon, but it does look probable
____________________________________-
86 spx pts were lost
86 x 38.2% = 33
870+33 = 903 OR 880 + 33 = 913
So we get a range of 903 to 913
And YOU can do the rest of the math
50%
61.8%
78.6% = most likely = 68 pts + 870= spx 938- 948
NOW thats fascinating because it was 68 pts we used to try to get to 820
and it was 68 pts lost from 956 to 889 on the June 11 to June 23 decline
950 is at the TOP of the formation of the crossed lines on the
20 day spx CHART I posted at the blog several times
THIS IS NOT a guarantee or MY projection at all
_________________________
Timing for such an event as the "B" or "X" wave just prior to
a very steep sell off thru August and SPT
8/18 is is a half 55 tr day cycle <28days> from july8 = 80 tr days from Arpil 20
9/24 is the complete 55 tr day cycle from the same or 110 from Apr 20
_______________________________________--
Back to the X wave
timing should be 112 to 115 tr days from FEB 6th HIGH TO HIGH
counting days = July 20 to 23rd
Remember I mentioned the 23rd of the month USUALLY represents a CHANGE
Why? because 2+3 = 5 and in numerology 5 = CHANGE
BUT ITS ALSO 115 tr days from FEB 6th HIGH TO HIGH
And this time the full moon Eclipse of July7th came in around a LOW
then the SOLAR eclipse of JULY 21st should offer a HIGH
And the daily readings SUPPORT that view.
_______________________
VERY SIMPLE Elliott = KISS
March 6th to June 11th = WAVE "A"
June 11 to July10th = WAVE "B"
July 10th to July 23rd = wave "C" , maybe
&
Consider this the end of WAVE 2 maybe
NOw begins the dreaded wave 3, maybe
because as I've said many times, most Elliotticians tend to END waves TOOO soon.
and I do have some evidence that this wave will NOT END UNTIL ???
yup, you guesses it - OCT10th 2009
2 X 250 tr days spread high to high = 500 tr days
more later
Jay
THE NEW JAYWIZ 2023
THE NEW JAYWIZ 2023
74 comments:
The Bradley turn date of Dec 2008 was 3 months late as the market turned positive in 3/09. The upcoming 7/15/09 Bradley turn date could also be late by 3 months extending to 10/15/09. Jay must have had an eye on this fact in writing the most recent post extending the wave to 10/09. I clearly hope this plays out.
John
Somewhat Relevant: If last Friday was a 1, then:
Mon 1.07
Tue 3.39
Wed 2.93
Thu 5.18
Fri 13.34
Hi Coy,
I am relatively new hear and I''m interested in how these figures are applied to the market. Thanks.
Craig
Oh no. Here go the futures again and my expected rally. Will we get a miracle?
Paul
Craig,
My posting of the "Somewhat Relevant" numbers is to give a general idea what the market will probably do this week. Relatively flat Monday, then we work into an upward swoop.
I really didn't want to nail it to price here. However, if you promise not to hold me to it, a better feel for next week can be gotten this way-
These numbers are based on the close of Friday. (S&P500 -3.55)
Take the absolute value of Fridays close and multiplty it times the day's number, then algebraically add the price to the result.
Mon 1.07 X 3.55 = 3.80, -3.55 = +0.25
Tue 3.39 X 3.55 = 12.03, -3.55 = +8.48
Wed 2.93 X 3.55 = 10.40, -3.55 = +6.85
Thu 5.18 X 3.55 = 18.39, -3.55 = +14.84
Fri 13.34 X 3.55 = 47.36, -3.55 = +43.81
Happy trading,
Coy
If the Futures are any indication, then ChartsEdge Daily Chart this week is going to play out to a tee. Longs beware.
TLC
Thanks Coy.
Craig
The futures are UP. wooohooo!
garth
There was a small change in the McClellan Osc. on Fri. suggesting a large move early this week.
Billy
I went long on Friday CFTC data shows commercials increasing longs and the Blogger Sentiment
is at 53 percent bearish...we could have a nice rally .. Eric
RAVI you out there
Hi Eric:
I am traveling till next Monday. Got out of SDS on Friday.
Sorry, I may or get much chance to participate.
Ravi
Thanks Ravi, always like reading your comments Eric
What's wrong with this rally? Why aren't we going up! Looks like Bears are winning this fight and we longs are going to get slaughtered!
tlc
Coy's numbers are biting the dust bigtime. What's new.
jj
Missing Jay's propensity indexes and other indexes
As I mentioned last Friday this is
OPEX week and current open interest
indicates an upward bias on SPX to
910. Doesn't mean it WILL get there
but at 910 most option traders will
lose. FYI. Just another piece of the
puzzle.
Hi Guys, many other indicators and accurate sites I follow are in line with what is being said here that a rally to 915 max, 900 min. OIL is keeping us down bros. The foriegn currencies all rolling over AUD, NZD and CAD,broke their uptrend lines. OIL is at 58.50, support is at 58.00. Tough to say here guys, if OIL goes down than so will the S&P.....
WE WILL NEVER REACH 900 SPX. I'll bet a million dollars we won't.
jj
Joseph,
With GS reporting earnings this week
and open interest indicating most
retail is bearish, 900-910 looks
attainable and would blow out a lot of bears. A short squeeze is very
possible.
900 will NOT be reached!!!!!!!!
jj
jj bro, were at 895 now, will hit 910 if my anaylsis is on with respects to my own data along side some other smart folks out there. But you know how it is, always 2 sides to the camp and it comes down to you to pull the trigger. USO is holding at 32 or close....
Trendline on SPX highs from June and
July is cuurently at 918.
joseph.
we backtested the broken H&S TRENDLINE ON SPX. DON'T THINK WE'LL BREACH IT. RALLY IS OVER BY END OF DAY OR TOMORROW MORNING. COULD JUST CHURN IN THE MEANTIME BEFORE GOING DOWN INTO THE 16TH, 17TH.
jj
spx H7S target is 920 btw.
jj
I meant to say.
820.
jj
got out of july calls at 893. very small put position (august). will wait for 899 to add more.
Jay's timing projection is paying very nicely.
sam
This is what Jay said about this rally;
"IMO< The chart shows a LIMITED rally in the making
IF it starts at 3pm, it should finish Monday by 11am to 1pm
Jay "
It is about 1 Pm and seems that rally is over.
sam
I see neg. divg. look for a fall
rally about to fizzle. if so, wed will be good day for long.
sam
sam. nah...make that Thurs for a rally. Flash got it as turn date so simon says.
kapeesh my bro.
jj
Could make a lot of mullah if 820 target is fulfilled even before the rally before OE.
jj
@Teleos MKT Update: note the low on 7/8 (turn day); had a bullish rev. at SPX 873 next turn is 7/16; see U there :-)
about 1 hour ago from web
the flash
Is Flash expecting the rally to continue until Thursday?
Flash didn't say. Simon only identifies "turns" not direction.
jj
I think Dan Eric's this count is in play:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/Slp7_DtZ6oI/AAAAAAAABEc/6ApSyrLbbw8/s1600-h/spx30.png
we are almost done with back kiss of the H&S break.
Have not had chance to check how it fit with Jay's timing..
Just bought small amount (1000 shares) of SDS short fund..
Ravi
TIMBER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
at least a fix to eight point slide. it may still try to see 900 at the end of the day
sam
iF IT SINKS NEAR THE eod THEN IT'LL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO MORNING AND REBOUND tomorrow.
jj
Mahendra, who jay soemtimes follow, calls for long MOn-tue. go short on wed for big drop on thu.
this fits into one of the Jay's scenario see blog at. Like Jay he has been very good for the directions. His call on OIl was right on spot.
http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/LatestFlash.asp?Id=467&Page=1
isregard my comments above as this projection was for the last week. sorry about that
sam
4 mins to go till doomsday!
SPX just hit 900.05
Me a moron?? Who called for doomsday?? I called for SPX 905-910
by OPEX.
Joseph,
Right now SPX is in a near perfect
downward channel with 915 top and
865 bottom, and declining. GS reports tomorrow and Intel.
HI guys -propens showed the rally today- sorry i coudnt get this to you
I did WELL wth calls bot on friday
Expect to sell them on the OPEn
Tommorow looks Very MUCh DOWN
Jay
Hi Guys, will hit 910-915 Max, if we break that on some crazy earnings which is a possibility due to the accounting rule changes for the banks then will make a lower high of 931.... OIL as I mentioned did get support if you follow USO. I say we hit 920 by Aug 1st. How, good bank earnings and OIL rising to 63/64
Jay,
Still missing your hourly propens index and guides
Joseph,
910-915 takes right to the top
of declining trendline and max
pain on options.
11:00 intraday turn is/was a bottom.
12:30-1:00 should be intraday top.
Scoobs
Thanks Scooby for the update
This feels like a new BULL MARKET. comments?
humble1
Humble1,
I'm still of the opinion that max
option pain on SPX is 910 and the
top of the Declining channel is at 915 and falling. Till we break that channel the trend is down. Sell the top and buy/cover at the bottom.
FWIW.
Option exiration week is usually positive. The economy incl unempl is still a drag on the market. I say we have a trading range for the summer.
humble mumble always the cheerleader. shesh so much noise with so little substance.
A NEW BULL MARKET HAS BEGUN!
DO NOT GET LEFT BEHIND!
BUY...BUY...BUY...BUY...BUY!
gs
Wow! The Bulls are trampling the bears under their hoofs. What a slaughter! I guess Humble1 and Da Chief is right right again.
george c.
Unbelievable price action. This might be the biggest open in History! If this isn't Bullish then I don't know what is. Man are the bears getting smoked.
Humble1
blah blah the mumbling cheerleader is back. Must have been chased off TT.
humble1..
All those dingbats like NAV, IYB, Selecto, etc over at TT FearlessForecasters are totally embarrased. These guys just demonstrated what lousy traders they are. I'll never take them seriously again.
George
completelty agree. NAV is one the worst! NAV's advice is toxic.
Humble1
snort...snort
Da Chief
Doesn't get better than this gentlemen. CNBC's Kudlow is having an orgasm. lol. I guess Cramer is being vindicated now baby. He's my hero. He was telling everybody to buy.
george
wow wow wow! This rally is amazing. The dawn of a new Bull. gotta luv it!
Tor
The cheerleaders are out in full force. Time to scale out.
Humble1 : Winner
NAV : Loser
fh
Wonder how atilla feels??
This rally is NOT abating! No fading.. nothing! Better buy before this train disappears into the night leaving you in despair.
Humble1
Seriously folks. This is one bad mutha of a rally. This is really surprising and lethal if you're on the wrong side. Massive institutional buying coupled with massive short covering. LETHAL!!
Humble1
Ravi:
Where are u??
comments??
pk
Humble1
you are everywhere spreading good news... they have to pay for this...
em
I think Matt Fraily at breakpointtrades.com is a loser as well. Took a free trial to see the mechanical systems and the goof puts them in a paying subscriber section. No worries cause I figured how he derives the parameters for his systems and will share all info especially about his new FAZ 1min chart sytems with everybody. He doesn't explain what underlys thes systems but once you know you can pretty much beat his sytems , get a jump on them, anticipate the turns in advance.
rudy
em.
I'm spreading the good news because I took a reaming by all the bears at TT. It just goes to show that for all their methods and systems and TA and whatever , it all amounts to just BS. They know nothing in the end .
Look at OMG who used to post on TT. He's went MIA because he destroyed himself with huge bad calls. Same will happen to NAV and IYB and others.
Humble1
Thanks Humble1.
You, Da Chief could very well be the best traders on the entire internet period. I follow you guys religiously.
thanks again
Maurice
sure is a lotta chortin goin on
da chief
You haven't seen nothing yet. Wait till super Friday.
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