Elliott wave stand ASIDE
the SKY is falling and so is the MKT
PROPENS index drops from 3005 to 2997 into tomorrow AM so far
and the SPX futures are already at 973
gold & Oil also taking it on the chin at 8:30am
Look for an initial LOW tomrrow between 10 & 11am,
which MIGHT flow over to the end of the day, but I dont
have a confirmation of that yet.
Flash has TOO Many change dates- NOW 7/30 & 7/31 NO help
but it is consistent with my proposed trading schedule for this week
more later
Jay
THE NEW JAYWIZ 2023
THE NEW JAYWIZ 2023
30 comments:
So are we looking at a down all the way to 7/31? after which the market will go up to 8/17? or 8/9, the latter as with accordance to chanyka's chart??
Linton
Well said Jay.
It's funny how EVERYONE'S turning Bullish for the last 10% move of a rally. This is classic typical market psychological action.
Dumb money never fails.
Jimmy
BEARTRAP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
kj
kj,
use your inside voice. don't tell other people. keep buying and holding and you will be a rich.
Anon:
Who are u kidding?
Pat
without this kind of suckers, how can the markets run?
What is a 'bear trap'????
"IT CAN GET UGLY !!!" - atilla about an hour ago. Perfect contrarian indicator. Went long at 970ish and loving it.
We ended a diagonal fifth around 10:01. In SPX it was truncated 0.14 points below prior hi, but DJI made marginal new hi.
Retrace levels are not too different irrespective of whether we started B or just (iv) of A.
IF in B
869.32 982.49 113.17
958.29 24.20 21.4%
939.26 43.23 38.20%
925.91 56.59 50%
912.55 69.94 61.80%
IF in (iv)
872.19 982.49 110.3
958.90 23.59 21.4%
940.36 42.13 38.20%
927.34 55.15 50%
914.32 68.17 61.80%
The lower degree iv was in the range of 943.22 to 956.53 and that can be range of target for a shallow retrace.
Three wave "a" took us from 982.35 to 969.35 or exactly 13 points. So far , the secondary hi is 975.28 for "b", if that holds 975.28 -13= 962.28 is where c=a, and 975.28-21.03= 954.25 is where c=1.618 of a. Let us see if can get to 954.25 by Jay's target time tomorrow AM.
Ravi
Thanks ravi and jay
sam
Thanks Ravi, Eric
Hi Ravi
great fibo math
Just on an ASTRO basis, the mkt should hit lows on friday at close
Heavy handed astro on saturday effecting friday trading and Midnite low tide as well
Today so far hit 13 fibo pts lost on the first downleg at 11:30
as you pointed out
multiples of 13 fibo are simple
21-34-55 which are near the values you posted
I would venture to guess we should see a level a little above the 870 of July 8th , thus once again 925 comes into focus.
but that doesnt rule out an intrday low to 914 either. - Maybe thats too ambitious??
TIME IS STILL The factor here
First intial low tomrrow at 13day cyle, BUT I have seen back in october 2008, the 13 day cycle low was exceeded on the open of the next day, SO THAT LOW is NOT CUT IN STONE- there is flexibility.
ESPECIALLY take into consideration WHERE & WHEN that CYCLE hits- in other words, what else is going on in cycles and or astro.
the main Murrey MAth was 971. Spx did NOT break above 987 to get to 1002, add 15, then 31
the next 2 levels lower are
971 which was tested earlier and should give way at close today
AND
940 is next
917 follows
Using the 40 pt rule of thumb
870 + 40 = 910
910 + 40 = 950
950 + 40 = 990 - DIDNT MAKE IT
On the way DOWN
982- 80= 902 , hmmm just a thought
and it still is above 870 by 31 m-math pts
Notice how CNBC is promoting GOOD NEWS today. They wish to ignore any decline AS TEMPORARY. and when the low hits on friday, you can be sure they will GET NEGATIVE and bring out the BEAR commentators
more later
Jay
CYCLE DATES
July 30/31st =
110 from FEB 23rd LOW
165 FROM DEC 1st, 2008 LOW
144 from Jan 2nd HIGH
233 from Aug 28th high, 2008
55 from May8th high
Jay
Jay are you stil; considering exit tomorrow 10:30 am? or wait for Friday low? Thanks
sam
Lucky 6--Saw where Tom Mahoney recently posted--31 July could be a big panic day--with many more on the horizon til fall--Thinks long exposure is VERY risky--He called last fall's big break weeks ahead with targets--also the march 2009 lows--Also say's 29 July to 5 aug good be inverse blow off but if long wouldn't hold out--If no blow off a series of panic days lay ahead--No targets--Just passing on his summary posting
This IS beary frustrating
they are making us WAIT till the last minute
July31st has a feww things going for it to make an important ONE DAY
big hit, epecially 165 from Dec1st which was down 700 pts
GOLD, AS PREDICTED, taking a big one so far which is what stocks should do also.
Activity index held 100 level most of the day- - would like to see it at 33, but will report
more later
Power index -Today 350 -400- 375
WEd - 350 -400 -325
Ths 250 -275 -250
looks like the best bet for a big down day
Fri not avail yet.
Jay
technicals of daily charts of QQQQ show that bulls will ultimately win and there may not be any decline not even a days pull back as anyone can see the chart.
SPY chart shows a clear bearish signal but yet the market is steady and no sign of bearishness.
I feel that there is secret plan of funds that are jacking up the markets. Considering the staged nature of this market predicting by astro or all these exotic tech indicators will not work.
Goerge
Bears won that close. We are going down hard tomorrow.
ptg
Lucky6 any link on that?
thanks
Jay.
There still going screw with da bears tomorrow.
I got Thursday as da bottom or possibly even late Wed. But no no Fri unless it just floats on Fri.
gh
No--
Goerge- is that the way you want to spell it?
It DOES look like THSDAY will be really NASTY and friday a so called FLOAT day or Up and settle DOW, but a little bit higher.
gh, you might be right on that.
Power index for Thsday is LOWEST since JULY10th under 300
and the fibo dates are better for a Thsday LOW=
I like especially 165 from DEc1st.
THE longer they wait the worse it will be. Propens index SEEMS to be heading LOWEr tomrrow, but its not a complete picture as of yet.
more later
Jay
Jay
Jay
Thanks for the response.
I was short and wondering what has been going on with this artificial market but unbeknownst to us it may not be that artificial as we like to think. It is possible that we are in a real big bull market or a huge trap.
Tech indicators are literally telling us that there are more buyers than sellers despite the volumes.
I wish your predictions come true but I am little bit uneasy on the current state of market.
QQQQ has gone up in aftermarket and this is 2 weeks straight up.
Something fishy really.
Goerge [I know its wierd like this market but I write Goerge but my real name is Jorge]
Jay
Yu got good blog here. Most traders don't even get this decline today. Dey just have to be quicker in da countertrend.
Best to ya Jay & keep up great work and I come back always.
Gorgha (gh)
dats nepalese
looking at the hourly chart and price structure,it looks a lot like we're in a triangle consolidation which at this stage is screaming wave 4 with 5 up to come from here.i thought with china taking a battering overnight we would finally get some downside to stick,but they've bought it up all morning so far in europe.worst 2 weeks tradingwise ive had for a hell of a long time,im thinking delta wise we've had a very late strong itd point 5 with 6 centred as a high now for friday/monday.the fact that jays indexes keep changing daily without any downside seems to be confirming this.
Yesterday's action did not confirm that upmove is done. We still have a iv triangle that can end up with a thrust through 982.5 area to 999-1000 area.
Ravi
Hi Everyone. A few days earlier I said:
wanted to add that my proprietary oscillator finally hit the top of it's range TODAY after 13 days for the TSX. I now fully expect a correction to ensue at any hour now. Goodluck to all. This should correlate with Jay's work.
Well yesterday the TSX corrected much more noticeably than the SPX and it is moving lock step with SPX. So I have no doubts thast the SPX is still correcting. Sometimes "Delta" and "EW" are of little value.
Btw...I use my own "Delta" type system that's much better.
Candi
COPIED FROM MAHONEY's PAGE
http://csiwallstreet.com/new-page-5.htm
Updated 7/25/2009
Stock market panics are relatively rare events, separated by large timeframes, so it’s difficult to isolate a concrete panic cycle due to the inherent lack of data. One thing we can do, however, is calculate the distance between any two panics and use that number of days to help us identify potentially dangerous time periods in the future. For instance, if there are 5,000 days between two previous panics, that may be a repeating cycle and, if today is 5,000 days from another panic, it might be wise to be out of the market today. This is an over-simplification to explain the basic strategy. One would probably not expect a panic or crash based on just one repeating time segment unless it was very important.
We can enhance this strategy, and improve our accuracy, if we calculate the distance between ALL previous panics and then apply those time segments to the current date. So, if today is 632, 3513, 5000, 7700, 8350 and 9990 days from previous panics and each of the preceding numbers equals the distance between two previous panics, today is considered an unusually risky day to be in the market. Each day of any year can be assessed and cross-referenced to isolate the number of repeating panic time segments hitting on that day. Some days have none and some days have many. The reason for this update is to make all of you aware that July 31, 2009 has more repeating panic time segments from previous panics than any other day in 2009. The exact numbers and their relationship to previous panics are proprietary but I offer this summary of my work for those who may find it useful.
What can be inferred from all of this? We are very close, in time (within days), to the end of the stock market rally off the March, 2009 lows. The risk of a stock market panic between 7/29-8/5 is very high and, in my opinion, one should reduce exposure to the market. While it is certainly within the realm of possibility that the 7/29-8/5 timeframe could invert and mark the pinnacle of a buying panic (the SPX is up almost 47 percent from the March lows and over 12 percent in just the past couple weeks), that interpretation should only be acted upon by the nimblest of short-term traders. Also, even if this bullish interpretation is correct, it is better to miss the last few days of a multi-month rally than be caught in a crash and one won't want to have heavy exposure to the market after July 31st, anyway. This is because there are several other potential panic timeframes occurring between now and Autumn and it is unlikely that the market will pass through all of these upcoming panic time periods unscathed.
-Mahoney-Fan
I'm glad I'm "dumb money." I've been following cnbc all week by buying dips and have already banked alot of coin. All the bearish blogs like this one think too hard
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