Looks like CLX shows latest rally with fewer stocks participating
Thats a WANING of support and $$ from investors
Today's futures higher open looks like a GIFT to the bears
Heres my trade dates for SPT
4th HIGH - turns into 8th for high, but not on close?
9th low at close
14th high at close
17th low at close
22nd high at close
25th low at close
28th TURNS higher into early October
Some are comparing this year to 1987-- DUHH- they do that every year
BUT this time it might be closer to 1987 than ever before-
We will explore that a little later on
Jay
42 comments:
The rising 30-Yr TBond Yield, even though financials love it, can't be sustained. When $TYX drops so does the the major market in dices.
HI COY;
I Missed a SIMPLE 39 hours cycle HIGH TO HIGH
AUG 28th at spx 1040 @ 9:45 AM + 39 hours to THIS MORNING AT 9:45am - DUHH
Activity index at a LOW 66 and flat since all night and this morning
Propensity index starts at 3009, and drops to 2986, and the 2 day confirms the low on close of 9th.
power index ahows a steady decline into 9th
more later
Jay
We'll let you slide this time. GG
The tall side-by-side bars in the 1-minute TRIN shows more evidence of highfrequency and front-running trading. In-your-face manipulation.
Hi Jay, do you believe we will make a higher high on the 14th, or 22nd or early OCT. Would like to hear your perspective. Regardless of which way it goes I value your feedback. If you believe will make a higher high then I wont play the day swings to much due to some of the trading I do is for my family that requires a DIV so I would stay in to collect the DIV unless a major correction say to 950... Thanks as always, I await your insight
A triangle since early AM hi indicates one more down to complete e, and then a 10 point move to 1031-32 area.
a 1026.17 1019.08 -7.09
b 1019.08 1025.64 6.56 93%
c 1025.64 1021.11 -4.53 69%
d 1021.11 1025.52 4.41 97%
e?? 1025.52 1022.433 -3.087 70%
v 1024.5+7=1031.5
I'm of the opinion, at this time anyway, that I'll see if I can weather any highs on way to the low midday Friday for my IRA account, Inverse Dow ETF. My thinking is, Friday the 11th, has the low of the week.
I could be wrong.
HI Joseph
Spt - Oct is tricky- but what else is new? [g]
According to a LUNAR fractal map, Aug28th was THE HIGH for next 2 months
Could get QUITE wild, as some charts indicate LOWER by Spt 25th, with a huge recovery rally into early October
the one thing I can identify, is a SOLID change in trend for October 10th to March 2010 resembling last year from Nov 1 to March 9th.
It would appear that OCTOBER is the BAD month.
And just like NOv 21 to jan 6th last year, any serious decline in october should recover thru late Dec or early Jan , then head south as it did this year in FEb & March
Hope that helps
The above would suggest getting defensive by early October.
Jay
Hi Ravi, whats your thoughts for this mths high. Do you believe will hit 9700 approx on the DOW on the 14 or 22nd approx. Chkout the following link, very compelling point, was quite interesting from Dan EWT. Your feedback is appreciated very much
Thanks
Joe
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SqUlm171qpI/AAAAAAAABrs/l6PDRDTf4aw/s1600-h/dow.png
Thanks Jay, will review. Much appreciated as always!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
still on for a high tomorrow the 9th.i will short any break above todays high.stop around 1039ish.and hold for a decent decline into next week.just hope thats not a cup and handle forming on the hourly,in which case its a small sideways chop,before an almighty burst up!
Hi Joseph:
I have no view on DJI hitting about 9700 on 14th or 22nd or early October.
9700 is just above August 28 hi. As I mentioned earlier, the waves since are 'iffy'. If we Dan Eric's preferred count is right, August 28 hi should not be exceeded. If 991 was (ii) and we are in i of (iii), we go well above 9700 pretty fast. Then there is the possibility that we are in a of (ii), in which case, we can go near 9700 by 14th.
In my view, it is best to look at one wave at a time. My count from September 3 low is that we finish five waves around SPX 931-932 (or DJI 9560) tomorrow and then start a correction. It is not clear what one larger degree count is, so it is difficult to target correction down from 1032ish , but 1022-1017 looks like minimum. So there is good chance from 1031-1032 to 1022 area, or 9 points.
Looking for an up market into mid-day.
8:31......Negative
9:31...Neutral
10:31....Neutral to Positive
11:31........Positive
12:31........Neutral to Negative
1:31..........Neutral to Negative
2:31.........Neutral to Positive
3:31.........Negative
thanks Ron
that fist well with a number of items on my agenda
126bars at 11;30
150bars at 1;30
180bars at 4pm or open tomrrow
propens still showing lower
activity flat as of 7am
power index still in decline
PRice should erode late today
Jay
new thread?
Thanks Ravi for the feedback. I was hoping OIL to run further and pull the market up but with oil going up 3.50 Tue, it didnt do much.... thus I believe that we also may be at a top, or very close to it. Thus I will take your advise and Jays and go defensive... I will miss out on a Divedend payout for my Mom/Dad but I rather perserve capital during this up/dn crazy moves.
On the hours listed above, I have
a CHANGE...3:31 Negative....is now
seen as NEUTRAL.
Double Low -
10:58
11:36
Shallow lows followed by taller white candles mean we're positively biased today.
Breakout from triangle about done at 1032 target?
I think we have seen the HOD. I went short at 1035 with stop at 1036. see Mortie's chart at
http://bostonwealth.net/
Ravi,
I think this market is bent on topping out TODAY, after 15:00.
Coy
bought SDS
After 13:18 we're up till after 15:00
If 1038.25 gets taken out ... there will be serious short covering covering as bear stops get taken out.
Beige book at 2PM EST. We will rally into it. Beige book will determine whether go further up or reverse.
UI claims at 8:30AM EST tomorrow.
Arak, thanks. I did not understand your comment about UI? Calim about what?
BTW, how do you register to get on UI log?
Jay, ravi, what is your count for the rest of the day here?
mahendra has free news leeter for tday on his website.
well in short anyhow,hopefully not much higher to go...
the MATH is VERY intriguing
1039.47 to 991.77 was 47.70 LOST
SPX HIT 1035.61 recorded HIGH
FIBO 78.6% + 13 = 91.6%
4770 x 91.6% = 43.69
991.77 + 43.69 = 1035.46
COULD THEY PLAY IT ANY TIGHTER??
Coming up to 1:26 and MOON 120 SUN
SPX is Pushing higher still @ 1035.90
activity just jumped a notch to 100, up from 66 ALL DAY LONG today
IF they get back to 1039.47 and FAIL to hold or exceed, one mght look at the current wave from Spt 2nd as a failed 5th ??
BRADLEY CHANGE date is SPT 14th
DOLLAR lower = higher stocks
however, TOMRROW is 24 tr days from the previous dollar low on 8/6. and teh dolor is making fresh lows ALA a 5th wave possible
JUST THE MIRROR reverse of SPX.
ok looks like 1:26pm hit the nail
and stopped at 1036.34
Jay
Arak:
Why 1038.25?
We have a micro-degree fie wave down from 9577.22. Let us see if that hi holds.
Five not fie
Ravi, last ES high was 1038.25 and bear stops will be above that.
Today is final day for stock market to remain up but Dow will not able to hold gain and today we will see sign of weakness or surely from tomorrow.
Thanks & GOD BLESS
Mahendra Sharma, Wednesday, 6.00 am
How does this five wave move fit into the larger degree count is open to multiple counts
992.25 1036.34 44.09
But, these are the retraces, which are relevant only to buliish larger degree counts
38.20% 1019.50 -16.84
50% 1014.30 -22.05
61.80% 1009.09 -27.25
Mkt is following Mortie's red arrow. we should see 1020 by tomorrow and then up move.
we should see bounce to 1032-1033
good luck everyone
sam
Caution. I have a high at 3:25.
I just don't want you to get whipsawed. It seems every time I open my mouth, I put my foot in it.
RON
Thanks for becoming a member
I am sure your data will be a valuable addition to this blog
Jay
COY
As previously mentioned
180 bars at 4pm and or OPEN
should set the stage for the 9:42 Astro high
then LOWEr for the WHOLE day tomrorrw
and 1014 SPX seems to ge a good middle ground
see newest update
Jay
Ravi
Does look like 5 waves from
1;15 to 2;45, and an abc rebound
to 3;45 at the moment
Jay
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