MY Elliott is SIMPLER than MOST. some times thats good and sometimes not so good, [g]I see Friday's HIGH at the 3pm TURN as the PEAK of WAVE [iv]
it has an abc formation.
It does satisfy the RULES of Alternations since wave [ii] was
barely noticeable on the way down from 1080 late on the 23rd
NOW
Note that MACD [ as ALPHA pointed out] CROSSED OVER after 3pm friday
ALSO note the OBV, not shown is on a steady drop from spt 23rd at 2;30pm
THE POWER index as previously mentioned does SHOW a SELL OFF Monday
AND the PROPENS index [as of SUNDAY am ] PRELIMINARY data has caught up enuf
to CONFIRM that drop.
SPX to 1021 should be the next objective level which would = about 185 dow points
Also, for those who are following the BAR cycle
it hits 156bars at 4pm and or open, but my inclination is for 4pm
Bryan NOTE that 78 bars at Fridays close meant NOTHING,
but 150 or 156 do have meaningful pivots
____________________________________________
TUESDAY
SINCE MERC goes DIRECT at 9am, we might expect a STRONG OPEN
And should continue biased Up in an ABC formation to midday on WED
_________________________
Thursday
has multiple long and short term cycles CONVERGING
at 2;30 = 39 hrs from the 23rd HIGH
__________________________
Friday has more and stronger convergences at 10am
21 tr days from Spt 2nd at 10am
34 tr days from Aug 17th at 10am
plus
144 tr days from Mrch 9th
216 days from Nov 21
More Later
Jay
Bryan
BAR CYCLE= 78 bars per day
12 per hour x 6.5 hours
5 x 12 = 60 x 6.5 = 390 minutes
Using a MULTIPLE of TEN x 390 = 3900
3900 / 6.5 = 6 days
we NOW see why 6 DAYS has such cyclical importance
We closed the day friday at 78 bars
that means Monday has
90b@ 10:30
120 b @ 1;30 or 126b @ 2pm
150 @ 3:30 0r 156 b @ 4pm
41 comments:
Saturn - Uranus opposition turned the markets AGAIN !!
This is the 3rd of 5 passages.
The previous two passages - on Nov 4 and Feb 5 - the DOW dropped 2000 points.
Myself - I am expecting the DOW to drop to 5600 by November.
Deflation is back.
The problem is that the drop in October will be so fast that most will miss it.
Looks like the dollar's going to drop hard again tomorrow fueling a nice bounce.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVAOZz8SpEIk
Looks like the dollar's going to drop hard again tomorrow fueling a nice bounce.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVAOZz8SpEIk
Hi Dan:
Looking around various EW counts from 1080 top, at a LARGER degree there are two prevalent alternative counts (and some bullish ones too):
PREFERRED COUNT (EWI, Dan Eric and the one you posted from an unknown source)is that 1080 was C top and and since then we have done (i) down either at 1041.17 on Friday(Dan and your post) or at 1045.95 on Thursday at 1045.95(EWI) and have started (ii) (extended ii in EWI case)up, which will be followed by (iii) down soon but not right away.
[EWI also has a variation within the PREFERRED COUNT that makes 1053.47 as top of (ii) already behind us and drop to 1041.17 as i of (iii). This is the only count that would indicate an immediate strong drop early Monday or even a gap down. As such it is the only EW count that is in line with your cycle, power index and propens index, unlike the count you have posted which calls for a small rally first]
The ALTERNATIVE COUNT is that 1080 was only extended b of a,b,c for (iv) of C from 1075. In which case, we have hi above 1080 ahead of us.
If we go below 1041.17 early AM,or open with gap, then I would be shorting right into that weakness, something I really do not like.
However, the EWwise preferred outlook is that we rally first and get an opportunity to short in 1052-1060 area tomorrow, with some chance of even getting to short at 1080 plus.
We will soon find out.
Jay,
I hope you're wrong on that. You've been quite accurate lately, but I believe 1040 will hold. I've posted my weekend update with my reason why I think we go up next week.
If I'm wrong then I'll have to take a loss, and get out as soon as possible.
Somebody's got lose in this casino! LOL!
Thanks again for the update,
Red
I agree with your comment earlier VERY STRONG OPEN MONDAY= Yom Kippur"
Question is whether the market tanks after that or trends up all day. We shall see. Glad I closed out shorts last Friday.
x
x
should've said that Fri.
mark
Looks like we may gap down giving you a great opportunity to close out shorts if you haven't already last Friday. I wonder how high we'll rally to once the dip buyers step in.
x
Today the Nine Days of Mother Divine (Navaratri) end.
Tomorrow is the 10th Lunar Day in the current lunar cycle [from New Moon], in Vedic Astrology generally an ausipious day, and this time celebrated as Vijaya Dasami - when Light overcomes Darkness. Technicals suggest a bounce is likely.
I and many other have suggested we are at an important inflection point here, we broke out of the upward channel we were in, but then failed with a blow off top and reversed and closed lower. This is a bearish engulfing candle, but the problem is the volume has been declining the last 3 days the tape went lower. So either we are going to make a stand and rush the bulls with all we got, or they are going to come roaring back and push back to retest the old highs and possibly higher. That is why my 1122 is still so far is in play.
I forgot to givr credit for the post above. This was from evil speculator blog.
Hi, All-
I am out of another half of my BGU position @ 50.20 (bought @ 48.88). Short term trend is still down and my play is selling on bounce. If today's strength is strong enough to change the short term trend, I will consider to buy back again on dips.
Bryan
Nice call on the strong open jay. I wonder how far we'll rally. Europe is pretty strong
Are we on a path to dow 10,000?
"THE POWER index as previously mentioned does SHOW a SELL OFF Monday
AND the PROPENS index [as of SUNDAY am ] PRELIMINARY data has caught up enuf
to CONFIRM that drop."
jay wasn't calling for a strong open.
x
As I mentioned in a previous post on Friday, beware quarter end window dressing.
Will Alphahorn's resistance line hold?
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_-p17nqJfPI8/Sr_SSDy47JI/AAAAAAAAAjA/IFs_iNyLMh0/s1600-h/15+min+spx.png
Cal, do you see dump signal here or we retest 1080 make new high?
I fspx does not go down from 1064-1067, we may see new high. If it dumps from here, 1080 is the top.
Alphahorn's resistance failed right after I posted. But I think it should have been at the 50% retrace point 1060.66.
If I'm correct, I have a high hit at 12:19.
Hi Sam
I'm not going to post my trades anymore. I'm relatively new to this posting . I didn't expect the backlash I received from the "anons" which got me to thinking , why should I benefit these rude, ungrateful, souls. My system is very consistent but I will not share the results with those who constantly bite and then leech you for information.
You Sam and Jay and others have been kind and I don't know how Jay puts up with the ungrateful treatment.
Perhaps I will post again, perhaps not.
Take care.
Cal
Sorry to hear that Cal always watched for your trades thanks for all the help...
I have been watching the 15" stoches for a pull back entry point for long but no luck really.....I think we go up for 3 days so looking for a small long for the next couple of days
Cal,
Sorry to hear that. Please post your trades as it is helpful to us. May be Jay can delete the anons that make bad remarks.
Thanks
My high was 10 minutes too late.
Thanks Cal. hope yoy change your mind. I understand your view.
I am short from 1063 target 1050.
This has the potential to make new high. will go long from 1050
I miss printed the targets by coverting ES to spx. I see only 1060 as the drop we head higher.
So where is this monday selloff you're talking about jay?
selling 64.5,stop 68.5. 61.8 retrace holding for now...
Jay,
Any changes to the weekly readings.
Thanks
taking profit at 62.2
I am out of shorts at break even.
cal, come on man, join the group. what is your take here? do you see dump or pump.
Long 1061.59 SPX
Cal
Jay are u still in bgz from $25.65?
Thanks cal. you are magician. right after you post we see green bar. will go long at ES 1063 just to be sure.
could not resist. went long here.
tomorrow AM we see new high, I mean higher than today and then it is dump time. Cycle wise, xxx is looking for 9:30-10am: and 1 PM for the high of the week.
Cal what does your cycle call for?
FWIW It IS quarter end window dressing. It will support the market
till the end of Sept. or close to it.
vIC, AND CAL YOU BOTH ARE RIGHT. we should see some upward movement tomorrow. Some possible scenario to confuse both bears and bulls:
1. go up to 1080 and close as doji
2. go make a new high above 1080 and close @ 1080.
3. go down and close at 1056
Cal,
Keep posting bud...
I've been wrong too many times to count, but I hang in there. I'm new to posting here on Jay's blog, but I've been reading for awhile.
I only recently (after reading many blogs... Evil Speculator, Slope of Hope, Cobra's blog, and too many others to mention) decided to get a discus, typepad, wordpress, etc... account set up so I could post my thoughts.
Good or bad, right or wrong, everyone's thoughts helps us all to trade better. I post on many different blogs now, and even put up my own blog... for more indepth details.
Tune out the noise my friend...
Red
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